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Draft Scenarios For Week 17


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nfldraft[1]We are down to the last week of the regular season and the Jets have nothing to play for other than draft position and Rex’s job. Week 17 is filled with nothing but divisional match-ups so figuring out Strength Of Schedule (SOS) is easier.  Because of this the Jets have to be within 4 games of any team to have a shot at passing them or be passed by them.

Here’s the current list of teams the Jets will have to deal with in any tiebreakers:

Pick Team Record SOS Opp. Left
9 TEN 6 – 9 121 – 119 @ Houston
10 NYG 6 – 9 124 – 114 – 2 Washington
11 BUF 6 – 9 125 – 115 @ NE
12 DET 7 – 8 107 – 129 – 4 @ Minnesota
13 PIT 7 – 8 112 – 126 – 2 Cleveland
14 NYJ 7 – 8 118 – 122 @ Miami
15 STL 7 – 8 133 – 107 @ Seattle
16 GB 7 – 7 – 1 108 – 130 – 2 @ Chicago
17 DAL 8 – 7 114 – 124 – 2 Philadelphia
18 BAL 8 – 7 114 – 124 – 2 @ Cincinnati
19 SD 8 – 7 120 – 120 Kansas City
21 MIA 8 – 7 124 – 116 NYJ
25 CHI 8 – 7 108 – 128 – 4 Green Bay

The Dolphins and Bears at 21 and 25 are listed since both can drop outside the playoffs and can be involved if they lose.

As I said before the Jets can only pass or be passed by teams who are within 4 games, so quite a few teams have the tiebreaker already settled. The Giants, Bills, Lions, Steelers, Rams, Packers, Dolphins, Chargers and Bears cannot be passed by the Jets or pass the Jets. So that just leaves the Titans, Cowboys, and Ravens who could be involved.

Moving on to the scenarios the best the Jets can do is get the 9th pick in the draft and this is how it’s done:

  • Jets lose
  • Bills win
  • Giants win
  • Titans win
  • Lions win
  • Steelers win

This would give the Jets a slight edge in SOS with the Titans at 128-128 and the Jets at 127-128 with only the Broncos-Raiders game left to count in the Jets SOS. If the Raiders lose then the Jets beat the Titans on SOS and if the Raiders win then the Jets would win based on conference record 4-8 vs. the Titans 6-6.

The rest of the scenarios with a Jets loss are easy enough to explain as the Jets lose a pick as each of the above doesn’t happen basically if they go 6 for 6 then they get the 9th pick but if they only get 5 out of 6 then they would get the 10th pick, 4 out of 6 would get them the 11th pick, etc.

Alright we move on to the other scenario where the Jets can take the 18th pick of the draft if this complex scenario occurs:

  • Jets win
  • Rams lose
  • Steelers lose
  • Cowboys lose
  • Ravens lose
  • Titans or Raiders win
  • Chargers win

If you noticed earlier I put the Chargers on the cannot pass list despite being within 4 games this is because if the above happens the Chargers would win on SOS by at least 3 games if they tie. So with this scenario the Jets fall short of the Dolphins and Chargers in SOS which cost them one spot since one of these two would be in the playoffs. The Steelers had to lose since the Jets would lose 2 spots rather than one . A Titans or Raiders win would give the Jets a narrow win in SOS over Baltimore by 1 game since both finished-based teams on their schedule play each other Texans(Ravens)-Titans(Jets) and Broncos(Ravens)-Raiders(Jets) so there is no leeway on this. A Chargers win would give them the playoff spot thus allowing the Jets to drop to 18th rather than 17th if the Charger lose. It doesn’t matter who wins the NFC North as the loser would have a worse SOS than the Jets.

As with the other one the Jets would go up a spot if each one doesn’t happen aside from the Ravens and the Titans/Raiders scenarios which are connected since if the Ravens win it won’t matter what the Titans and Raiders do and a Steelers win won’t mean much unless both the Ravens and Chargers lose since they won’t be in the playoffs and thus still lose to the Jets in SOS.

 

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It's draft pick position, just let it fall where it may. As you can see, the better position you pick does not insure a better player. The jets got a potential DROY at 13

I agree, when you are picking D-linemaen every year, then yeah, but this year we may actually take someone on the offensive side of the ball, but Shhhhhh, dont tell Rex.

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Trade up.

 

You say "trade up" like the draft is an episode of "I Dream of Jeannie" and Idzik can just  blink his eyes and move up to #1.  

 

Realistically the Jets would have to package multiple 1's and 2's to get Bridgewater at #1.    To get their pick of QB after Bridgewater the Jets would need to get to #2.   That is basically the RG3 trade the Rams made a few years ago and don't forget the Jets would be moving up 10 more spots than the Redskins moved up.   The Jets have holes pretty much everywhere except DL so sacrificing 2 drafts worth of picks doesn't seem like a smart move.     

 

How do you suggest that the Jets move up?    Which QB is worth at least 3 1st rd picks+ in this years draft?   

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You say "trade up" like the draft is an episode of "I Dream of Jeannie" and Idzik can just  blink his eyes and move up to #1.  

 

Realistically the Jets would have to package multiple 1's and 2's to get Bridgewater at #1.    To get their pick of QB after Bridgewater the Jets would need to get to #2.   That is basically the RG3 trade the Rams made a few years ago and don't forget the Jets would be moving up 10 more spots than the Redskins moved up.   The Jets have holes pretty much everywhere except DL so sacrificing 2 drafts worth of picks doesn't seem like a smart move.     

 

How do you suggest that the Jets move up?    Which QB is worth at least 3 1st rd picks+ in this years draft?   

Do you really think the Jets need to get to #2 after Teddy goes #1? People on this very forum have Manziel dropping as far as #15, and my belief is that Manziel is definitley #2 after Bridgewater? Now, I dont believe Manziel drops out of the TOP 5 which means the Jets need to get to St Louis's pick (via Washington) or if he is still available, get to Atlanta's pick as niether St. Louis or Atlanta are QB shopping.

 

No, I wouldnt give up mutliple #1's, but I could see packaging our #1, a #2, another later round pick and possibly like a #2 next year.

 

Look, if they dont trade up and stay where they are, then simply draft McCarron, Mettenberg, Murray, Carr if you like him, but draft someone from this QB loaded draft.

 

Like I have said in other threads, everytime the Jets skip a Great QB draft like this year, they get burned, then panic and take a QB like SMITH and SANCHEZ from a QB horrible draft. Here we go again, skipping another great draft.

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Do you really think the Jets need to get to #2 after Teddy goes #1? People on this very forum have Manziel dropping as far as #15, and my belief is that Manziel is definitley #2 after Bridgewater? Now, I dont believe Manziel drops out of the TOP 5 which means the Jets need to get to St Louis's pick (via Washington) or if he is still available, get to Atlanta's pick as niether St. Louis or Atlanta are QB shopping.

 

No, I wouldnt give up mutliple #1's, but I could see packaging our #1, a #2, another later round pick and possibly like a #2 next year.

 

Look, if they dont trade up and stay where they are, then simply draft McCarron, Mettenberg, Murray, Carr if you like him, but draft someone from this QB loaded draft.

 

Like I have said in other threads, everytime the Jets skip a Great QB draft like this year, they get burned, then panic and take a QB like SMITH and SANCHEZ from a QB horrible draft. Here we go again, skipping another great draft.

 

Manziel isn't going second after Bridgewater. Bortles and Carr (depending on his senior bowl performance) will go ahead of him. The question is though, will the Vikings take him at 8?

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Manziel isn't going second after Bridgewater. Bortles and Carr (depending on his senior bowl performance) will go ahead of him. The question is though, will the Vikings take him at 8?

If Manziel is there at 8 for The Vikings, they will take him faster than REX take's top rated D-Linemen. The dude from the Vikings table at the draft, will be up there before Goodell reads the name of the guy drafted at #7.

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the problem for the Jets is that all of the QB needy teams pick in front of them. Jax, Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland. The 5th best QB in the draft doesn't excite me at all.

But the Giants, Rams, Falcons, and possibly the Bucs if they like Glennon pick in the area where these QB's will be available, and if your willing to give up the picks any QB not named T Bridgewater could be had (and even he could be had if the Texans pull a M Williams scenario, and grab Clowney, Barr, or Matthews, and Rams on the clock with pick #2 Bridgewater to the highest bidder in that scenario)!

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But the Giants, Rams, Falcons, and possibly the Bucs if they like Glennon pick in the area where these QB's will be available, and if your willing to give up the picks any QB not named T Bridgewater could be had (and even he could be had if the Texans pull a M Williams scenario, and grab Clowney, Barr, or Matthews, and Rams on the clock with pick #2 Bridgewater to the highest bidder in that scenario)!

I gotta believe that Houston is absolutely going Bridgewater, or the hometown hero, but I like your other scenarios. It would be a dream come true for Jet fans, if Houston went Clowney, and then left Bridgewater for the highest bidder, and who has more firepower right now than the Jets?

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I gotta believe that Houston is absolutely going Bridgewater, or the hometown hero, but I like your other scenarios. It would be a dream come true for Jet fans, if Houston went Clowney, and then left Bridgewater for the highest bidder, and who has more firepower right now than the Jets?

 

Cleveland.   

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