Warning ! !.. to Jets : reaching for QB can be hazardous to health of franchise ~ ~ ~

[kelly]

History has a message for the New York Jets: Don't do it, don't take the quarterback plunge with the 20th overall pick.

If they ignore the warning, there's a good chance they'll end up marching in a parade of fools.

The NFL is filled with cautionary tales of quarterback-needy teams blowing first-round picks because of need and greed at the position. They reach for over-rated prospects, succumbing to temptation and pressure. The seemingly endless quest for a franchise quarterback, something the Jets know about, can trick the savviest of talent evaluators into making bad decisions.If a quarterback is the real deal, he'll be picked in the top 10, probably the top five. If a prospect slips, there's usually a pretty good reason, but teams are willing to overlook deficiencies because they're blinded by desperation.

From 2000 to 2015, a total of 16 quarterbacks were drafted in the No. 12 to 32 range, only two of whom can be considered true franchise quarterbacks --Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco. Teddy Bridgewater shows upside, but he's not there yet. The rest of the group reads like a "Who's Who?" of busts: Johnny Manziel. EJ Manuel. Brandon Weeden. Christian Ponder. Tim Tebow. Josh Freeman. Brady Quinn. Jason Campbell. J.P. Losman. Kyle Boller. Rex Grossman. Patrick Ramsey. The last guy is Chad Pennington, whose promising career was derailed by injuries.

What were those teams thinking ?

In 2005, the Green Bay Packers got lucky when Rodgers, projected as the possible No. 1 overall pick, fell to them at 24. The ghost of Lombardi was looking out for them because something like that happens only once a generation."To be in a situation like Green Bay years ago when they took Aaron when Brett Favre was their starter, that's obviously the ideal situation," Arizona Cardinalsgeneral manager Steve Keim said at the scouting combine. "But how many times are you sitting in the 20s when you can take a guy that you see as the future?"The Jets could be confronted with this decision on draft day. The top prospects,Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, probably will be picked in the top 10. Wentz may have solidified himself as one of the best players in the draft with a strong combine performance. Goff was solid, remaining in the conversation. The wild card is Paxton Lynch, who received mixed reviews and could be available for the Jets.

Lynch has an intriguing skill set, with all kinds of size (6-foot-6 1/2) and athletic ability, but he was inconsistent with his accuracy at the combine, according to ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay. He also believes Lynch "plays with loud feet, and is still working through his drops. Lynch is an intriguing prospect, but he's not nearly as polished as Goff or Wentz."That said, Lynch could rise up boards if he crushes his pro day. If not, he could be there for the Jets. Would they pick him? Based on what I'm hearing, I'd be surprised if they take a quarterback at 20, and that's probably the right call. Unless they have a strong conviction on Lynch, it's a better risk-reward decision to pass, using the pick to address a current need.The Jets would like to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, but they're still looking for a long-term solution. Maybe it's Bryce Petty, drafted last year in the fourth round. He's a project that may or may not pan out. Like many general managers, Mike Maccagnan covets the Next Big Thing. Presumably, he's smart enough to walk away from a sucker proposition.

What about trading up? That's no bargain either. Since 2000, there have been 14 instances of a team trading up to draft a quarterback in Round 1 -- and only five of them had a winning record with their draft team. There's nothing worse than overdrafting a quarterback and paying extra to do it.We'll see how this plays out over the next two months. Right now, the Jets would be wise to look at other positions. It hurts not to have a franchise quarterback, but it hurts more to think you have one and be wrong.

>    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/58659/warning-to-jets-reaching-for-qb-can-be-harzardous-to-health-of-franchise

[jgb]

This article actually stands for the opposite point it is trying to make. It is difficult to hit on a QB, so if you want one you better maximize your chances, not limit them.

[RutgersJetFan]

It's hazardous to the franchise when you hang onto them for way ******* longer than necessary as we've done with Sanchez and Geno. Eliminate that routine and it is absolutely 100% without question worth taking chance after chance after chance on quarterbacks. This is a one position league and unless a miracle befalls you in free agency you have to actually put some money in the slot machine if you ever want a chance at landing one. 

The Jets should be drafting every single quarterback prospect they have an opportunity at in the early rounds. Only thing that matters if this franchise ever wants a chance at sustained success.

[David Harris]

I only have one question:

Who the FuK do we have that we wouldn't take a chance on a first round quarterback?

 

 

Seriously, where does anybody get off with this?  I don't care what the statistics say.  The wall punching me in the face for 30 plus years reads we've never had a godamn quarterback so keep looking until you find one.

[Joe Jets fan]

This is where having a scout as a GM helps a lot.  If he thinks a QB is worth it at 20 then you take him.   Stay true to your board, don't over reach but if a QB is even close to bpa then you pull the trigger.  If a QB is rated high enough you also go get him.    

 

Its all how they are rated. 

[The Troll]

This article actually stands for the opposite point it is trying to make. It is difficult to hit on a QB, so if you want one you better maximize your chances, not limit them.

Until you realize three different Browns QBs are listed. That's what happens when a team continuously takes shots in the dark on "franchise QBs" that are only regarded as such because of desperation or a weak draft class.

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[jgb]

20 minutes ago, The Troll said:

Until you realize three different Browns QBs are listed. That's what happens when a team continuously takes shots in the dark on "franchise QBs" that are only regarded as such because of desperation or a weak draft class.

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In this great big world you can find an example for anything. How about the Colts taking 2 first round QBs in last 20 years and both being studs? Cherry picked examples persuade no one except primary voters. 100% of teams that don't draft QBs suck. How about that stat.

[The Troll]

In this great big world you can find an example for anything. How about the Colts taking 2 first round QBs in last 20 years and both being studs? Cherry picked examples persuade no one except primary voters. 100% of teams that don't draft QBs suck. How about that stat.

Technically, that isn't true. Romo wasn't drafted. Brees was a free agent. How you like that cherry pickin'?

My point is that it's a waste to draft a QB in the first just because you really, really hope prospect chicken sh*t will turn into franchise QB chicken salad. The rest of your team will go to sh*t in a hurry and even if you find a franchise guy, you might not even know it because he's surrounded by garbage. You are, after all, advocating the same principle that landed us Sanchez. Beyond the first round, **** yeah, go for it.

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[jgb]

1 hour ago, The Troll said:

Technically, that isn't true. Romo wasn't drafted. Brees was a free agent. How you like that cherry pickin'?

My point is that it's a waste to draft a QB in the first just because you really, really hope prospect chicken sh*t will turn into franchise QB chicken salad. The rest of your team will go to sh*t in a hurry and even if you find a franchise guy, you might not even know it because he's surrounded by garbage. You are, after all, advocating the same principle that landed us Sanchez. Beyond the first round, **** yeah, go for it.

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cowboys suck as do saints. next.

[The Troll]

cowboys suck as do saints. next.

If we are removing Drew Brees from an example of a franchise QB, I'd like to know what your definition is.

Romo was hurt last year and the Cowboys sucked. So, using that logic also removes Luck. I guess only Brady and Rodgers are franchise quarterbacks.

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[jgb]

2 minutes ago, The Troll said:

If we are removing Drew Brees from an example of a franchise QB, I'd like to know what your definition is.

Romo was hurt last year and the Cowboys sucked. So, using that logic also removes Luck. I guess only Brady and Rodgers are franchise quarterbacks.

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so that one time a franchise QB became available stands for the argument that teams should never draft them again. this is like saying a dude won the lottery once so it's reasonable to spend my whole paycheck on lotto tickets. let me know how your application for NFL GM is received.

 

to score goals you have to attempt goals. draft QB until we find one. case closed.

[The Troll]

so that one time a franchise QB became available stands for the argument that teams should never draft them again. this is like saying a dude won the lottery once so it's reasonable to spend my whole paycheck on lotto tickets. let me know how your application for NFL GM is received.

 

to score goals you have to attempt goals. draft QB until we find one. case closed.

I brought Brees and Romo into the argument to dispel your point that "Teams that don't draft QBs 100% suck". It's irrelevant to my greater point. I was just being a smartass.

You want to throw a bunch of sh*t at the wall and see what sticks? Fine. Don't do it in the first round. Following the Cleveland Brown model of franchise building is never a good idea.

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[BowlesMovement]

While I do believe there is an element of luck in finding a QB, I also believe that you can reduce the luck factor by having 2 things:

1) People who know how to evaluate a QB

2) People who know how to develop a QB

If we don't have those two things, we have problems, and I don't want to bank purely on luck. 

My point is that hopefully Mac and his staff can scout and evaluate QB talent enough to make the right call on whehter or not any of these guys are worth taking. And hopefully Bowles and his staff can develop one if so.

 

[CanadaSteve]

4 hours ago, The Troll said:

Technically, that isn't true. Romo wasn't drafted. Brees was a free agent. How you like that cherry pickin'?

My point is that it's a waste to draft a QB in the first just because you really, really hope prospect chicken sh*t will turn into franchise QB chicken salad. The rest of your team will go to sh*t in a hurry and even if you find a franchise guy, you might not even know it because he's surrounded by garbage. You are, after all, advocating the same principle that landed us Sanchez. Beyond the first round, **** yeah, go for it.

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You never waste a pick on a QB.  You have to find one in this league, or you don't go anywhere.  That said, you also need talent evaluators, and you also need to let them sit for at least a year.  For every Andrew Luck who can come in and play from day one, there is 15 QB's who could have been better than they were had they not have been rushed into action.