The "way too early" fantasy football chatter thread

[Integrity28]

Mods will likely move this, but I'm hoping they'll let it live in the main forum area long enough to garner interest ... especially for those of us looking for a conversation topic outside of the realm of the bitch-bickering Geno/Fitz crap that has overwhelmed the site for the past months.

Anyway, here are 10 FFB predictions I'm making for the upcoming season:

1. David Johnson will lead all RBs in fantasy scoring, by more than 50 points in PPR leagues
2. Ben Rothlesberger will lead all QBs in fantasy scoring, in all standard 4pt per passing TD leagues, edging out Cam Newton and Blake Bortles in the top 3
3. Demaryius Thomas will finish outside the top 35 at his position, currently rated #15 by ESPN
4. Ladarius Green will be the #2 scoring TE, trailing only Gronk
5. Allen Hurns will finish with more than 80 receptions and 8 TDs
6. Tevin Coleman will out-rush Devonte Freeman for ATL
7. Gio Bernard will lead all Bengals offensive players (RB/WR/TE) in scoring
8. Jeremy Langford will finish as a top-10 RB
9. CJ Prosise will be the out-of-nowhere RB stud of the season
10. Doug Martin, Drew Brees, AJ Green, and Travis Kelce (all ranked in the top-10 at their respective positions) will be the biggest busts at their respective positions

[greenwichjetfan]

16 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Mods will likely move this, but I'm hoping they'll let it live in the main forum area long enough to garner interest ... especially for those of us looking for a conversation topic outside of the realm of the bitch-bickering Geno/Fitz crap that has overwhelmed the site for the past months.

Anyway, here are 10 FFB predictions I'm making for the upcoming season:

1. David Johnson will lead all RBs in fantasy scoring, by more than 50 points in PPR leagues
2. Ben Rothlesberger will lead all QBs in fantasy scoring, in all standard 4pt per passing TD leagues, edging out Cam Newton and Blake Bortles in the top 3
3. Demaryius Thomas will finish outside the top 35 at his position, currently rated #15 by ESPN
4. Ladarius Green will be the #2 scoring TE, trailing only Gronk
5. Allen Hurns will finish with more than 80 receptions and 8 TDs
6. Tevin Coleman will out-rush Devonte Freeman for ATL
7. Gio Bernard will lead all Bengals offensive players (RB/WR/TE) in scoring
8. Jeremy Langford will finish as a top-10 RB
9. CJ Prosise will be the out-of-nowhere RB stud of the season
10. Doug Martin, Drew Brees, AJ Green, and Travis Kelce (all ranked in the top-10 at their respective positions) will be the biggest busts at their respective positions

Agree with some of this; don't really have an issue with any of it- save for #3. If anything, I think DT is going to see more action this year than last year. If you're playing in a PPR format, I think he's going to be gold. A guy like Sanchez or Lynch if he plays, is going to be looking to force the ball into the player that gives them the greatest potential for success. While DT will probably be double teamed, I feel he's going to get a lot more opportunities than with a guy like Peyton who is methodical and will take what the defense gives him each time.

Not saying he's going to have great numbers, but I don't see him outside of the top 20 in a PPR format. 

[Integrity28]

I'm seeing Antonio Brown going #1 overall a lot this year, or at least in projections and "expert opinions". Seems like a no-brainer in a PPR league, but the WR position has so much depth to it nowadays, I would challenge whether it's a viable strategy in a more traditional scoring format without PPR.

What I mean to say is, 10 years ago, the upper echelon of WRs was 10 guys, then a lot of crap. For fantasy purposes. Now, the average weekly score of the 5th best WR may only be 1 point per week more than the 25th best WR. Meaning, because of the rule changes, that WR is deeper than ever.

Meanwhile, there's maybe 5 RBs who will start the year as feature backs and end it that way. The fluctuation in usage, between the new concussion protocol and passing games exploding, has rendered the RB position volatile at best. If you can secure a stud RB, like AD, Leveon, or Gurley or David Johnson even at #1 overall, then take a pair like Amari Cooper and BMarsh in rounds 2/3 you are going to be a much better team than if you'd taken Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper and Mark Ingram. (I'm using these specific players because of their ADP on several sites I've referenced.)

A lot has been made of the "stud WR strategy" for drafting in recent years, but I've stuck to the basic premise of supply and demand as my guide for the 1st couple of rounds. It serves me well.

[Mike135]

Any thoughts on Ezekiel Elliot?  Think he's ranked 8th or 9th overall in ppr formats and I'm picking 8th in my league.

Seems like a huge gamble on a rookie.

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, Mike135 said:

Any thoughts on Ezekiel Elliot?  Think he's ranked 8th or 9th overall in ppr formats and I'm picking 8th in my league.

Seems like a huge gamble on a rookie.

I went into last season very high on the rookie class of RBs.

I drafted Melvin Gordon high, and David Johnson, Matt Jones late. 

I ignored something very important in my zeal to get these guys as "steals" in the draft. It screwed me. Rookie RBs don't get on the field if they cannot protect the QB. Gordon was terrible in pass protection, and the passing game in general. I sat, as my 3rd round bust got outplayed (in fantasy and real life) by Danny Woodhead.

David Johnson also couldn't get on the field, because he couldn't pick up the blitz. Matt Jones faced similar issues, as well as ball security problems.

Ultimately, the best piece of advice I can give you is, watch the preseason and look for the clippings about how well Elliot does in pass protection. I've read many clips already that he's good in pass pro, but let's see it at the NFL level. If he can do it, then behind that OL and with that skill set of his, there's no reason he can't be an immediate stud.

So, the short answer, assuming you're taking him if he's there, and watch for warning signs in the preseason that he may cede carries to Alf Morris. Reality is, the Dallas coaches don't have the balls that Bruce Arians has... so they aren't like to keep Elliot on the sideline for 8+ weeks in favor of a veteran the way Arians did.

[Mike135]

19 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

I went into last season very high on the rookie class of RBs.

I drafted Melvin Gordon high, and David Johnson, Matt Jones late. 

I ignored something very important in my zeal to get these guys as "steals" in the draft. It screwed me. Rookie RBs don't get on the field if they cannot protect the QB. Gordon was terrible in pass protection, and the passing game in general. I sat, as my 3rd round bust got outplayed (in fantasy and real life) by Danny Woodhead.

David Johnson also couldn't get on the field, because he couldn't pick up the blitz. Matt Jones faced similar issues, as well as ball security problems.

Ultimately, the best piece of advice I can give you is, watch the preseason and look for the clippings about how well Elliot does in pass protection. I've read many clips already that he's good in pass pro, but let's see it at the NFL level. If he can do it, then behind that OL and with that skill set of his, there's no reason he can't be an immediate stud.

So, the short answer, assuming you're taking him if he's there, and watch for warning signs in the preseason that he may cede carries to Alf Morris. Reality is, the Dallas coaches don't have the balls that Bruce Arians has... so they aren't like to keep Elliot on the sideline for 8+ weeks in favor of a veteran the way Arians did.

Thanks, good call.  I'll definitely keep an eye on his pass protection.  But yeah, from what I hear he's the complete package.  

Last year after watching Abdullah burn us in the preseason, I gambled a 4th on him...  didn't work out well.  So struggling with the idea of taking a rookie over a sure thing like AJ Green or something.

Using 4th and 5th round keepers on Marshall n Edelman.  One of the game plans now is to go Elliot at 8 and Lamar Miller at 13.  Hell maybe even Forte in the 3rd at 28th.  (3RB and 3WR league)

[Integrity28]

Just now, Mike135 said:

Thanks, good call.  I'll definitely keep an eye on his pass protection.  But yeah, from what I hear he's the complete package.  

Last year after watching Abdullah burn us in the preseason, I gambled a 4th on him...  didn't work out well.  So struggling with the idea of taking a rookie over a sure thing like AJ Green or something.

Using 4th and 5th round keepers on Marshall n Edelman.  One of the game plans now is to go Elliot at 8 and Lamar Miller at 13.  Hell maybe even Forte in the 3rd at 28th.  (3RB and 3WR league)

Yup, he's supposed to be real-deal, and Abdullah is another example of a rookie that burned us last year. I think you take Elliot in hopes he is more Gurley, than the rest of last year's crop.

Reality is, by the time the draft gets here (assuming it's late August), Elliot could be getting drafted before 8 on a regular basis. LOL

[Mike135]

4 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Yup, he's supposed to be real-deal, and Abdullah is another example of a rookie that burned us last year. I think you take Elliot in hopes he is more Gurley, than the rest of last year's crop.

Reality is, by the time the draft gets here (assuming it's late August), Elliot could be getting drafted before 8 on a regular basis. LOL

Yeah, suppose planning now is a little useless.  But I don't follow college ball, so need to spend a little time planning for mid-Aug draft.

[drdetroit]

4 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I'm seeing Antonio Brown going #1 overall a lot this year, or at least in projections and "expert opinions". Seems like a no-brainer in a PPR league, but the WR position has so much depth to it nowadays, I would challenge whether it's a viable strategy in a more traditional scoring format without PPR.

What I mean to say is, 10 years ago, the upper echelon of WRs was 10 guys, then a lot of crap. For fantasy purposes. Now, the average weekly score of the 5th best WR may only be 1 point per week more than the 25th best WR. Meaning, because of the rule changes, that WR is deeper than ever.

Meanwhile, there's maybe 5 RBs who will start the year as feature backs and end it that way. The fluctuation in usage, between the new concussion protocol and passing games exploding, has rendered the RB position volatile at best. If you can secure a stud RB, like AD, Leveon, or Gurley or David Johnson even at #1 overall, then take a pair like Amari Cooper and BMarsh in rounds 2/3 you are going to be a much better team than if you'd taken Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper and Mark Ingram. (I'm using these specific players because of their ADP on several sites I've referenced.)

A lot has been made of the "stud WR strategy" for drafting in recent years, but I've stuck to the basic premise of supply and demand as my guide for the 1st couple of rounds. It serves me well.

I got him in the 3rd round two years ago he was a beast for me.

[drdetroit]

4 hours ago, Mike135 said:

Any thoughts on Ezekiel Elliot?  Think he's ranked 8th or 9th overall in ppr formats and I'm picking 8th in my league.

Seems like a huge gamble on a rookie.

I'd take him in the first round.  That Dallas Offensive Line would turn Kevan Barlow into a 1,000 yard rusher.  I had McFadden last year and he was top 5 in rushing even with crap at the QB position.

[Matt39]

Expect Tyler Lockette to have a nice year. Should have been a Jet. Sammie Coates as a sleeper.

[drdetroit]

2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Yup, he's supposed to be real-deal, and Abdullah is another example of a rookie that burned us last year. I think you take Elliot in hopes he is more Gurley, than the rest of last year's crop.

Reality is, by the time the draft gets here (assuming it's late August), Elliot could be getting drafted before 8 on a regular basis. LOL

There aren't a lot of good fantasy RB's left so I can see elliot consistently going in round 1 in most leagues.  Why not?  He has a great OL, if Romo can stay on the field he has to be a top tier back.

[joewilly12]

In my pay league I'm drafting Beckham or Gronkowski 1st pick 

[Dcat]

22 hours ago, Mike135 said:

Any thoughts on Ezekiel Elliot?  Think he's ranked 8th or 9th overall in ppr formats and I'm picking 8th in my league.

Seems like a huge gamble on a rookie.

they will work Elliot to death.  I expect McFadden and Alfred Morris to get relatively little playing time.  Romo is going to need a strong run game to survive the season.

Elliot will be fantasy gold, even though he is a rookie.

[Dcat]

18 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

In my pay league I'm drafting Beckham or Gronkowski 1st pick 

Gronk always misses some time.  Plus, with the addition of M. Bennett, I expect Gronk's numbers to decline a bit.  I would never take him in round 1.  

[drdetroit]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Gronk always misses some time.  Plus, with the addition of M. Bennett, I expect Gronk's numbers to decline a bit.  I would never take him in round 1.  

No Brady first 4 games plus Madden Curse

[JiFtheOracle]

I had a dream that I didnt play Fantasy Football for the first time in forever and I woke up perfectly fine with it.

What does this mean? 

[greenwichjetfan]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

I had a dream that I didnt play Fantasy Football for the first time in forever and I woke up perfectly fine with it.

This year, for the first time since '04/'05ish, I'm only going to do the one league with my buddies that I started out with way back when. All of the other ones that I picked up over the years I'm getting rid of. '14 & '15, I was up to 7 & 5 respectively....just found myself losing interest in the sport itself, and felt my rabid interest in the Jets waning. 

I want to get back to being an obsessive Jets fan again.

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Gronk always misses some time.  Plus, with the addition of M. Bennett, I expect Gronk's numbers to decline a bit.  I would never take him in round 1.  

I'm not a fan of Gronk in R1, however, when he's healthy his scoring floor is tough to beat. Also, his numbers didn't get hurt by Hernandez playing, they shouldn't with Bennet either. Gronk is the 1st read on damn near every play. If anything, Edelfag and whatever pass-catching RB they use numbers might decline with Bennett taking targets from them.

[Mike135]

7 minutes ago, JiF said:

I had a dream that I didnt play Fantasy Football for the first time in forever and I woke up perfectly fine with it.

What does this mean? 

Pretty sure that's a low testosterone symptom.

[SouthernJet]

12 minutes ago, JiF said:

I had a dream that I didnt play Fantasy Football for the first time in forever and I woke up perfectly fine with it.

What does this mean? 

I played since 1984 or 1985 I forget, we used USA Today next day for results (or listened to radio/sportscenter for PARTIAL results, never got REAL results), LOL. I got sick of it and quit after 8 years or so. I didnt miss it one bit. I didnt start up again until 4 years ago (played 3 new seasons now, since my son invited me to his old Law Firm League). WOW, so easy now /yahoo, tracking players, tracking score, you dont do shat, LOL. Its great. Plus I won over $3,000 1st 3 years so far  Oh ,and it's Dynasty format. Would never go back to redraft. Dynasty for XsOs guys, cause you are a long term General manager, stashing bench players who may start in 2 years cause you have a 32 yr old WR etc. Much more fun. For draft we have 19 roster spots, you keep 0 thru 19 players, up to you. In 2014 I kept 13. My 1st pick was in 14th round, I took the rookie  odell Beckham, cause folks were afraid since he was gonna be out maybe 1/2 season etc. It was 1st year they went to Dynasty and many folks didnt 'grasp it yet'. I lucked out.

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, Mike135 said:

Pretty sure that's a low testosterone symptom.

Stay on topic please. We have a Low-T and me thread in the lounge if you have questions or concerns.

[RoadFan]

One of most interesting, and most impactful, fantasy storylines is how the Ravens RB situation shakes out.  Baltimore will be a very good team again, prefer a workhorse type running game over a committee, and whomever wins that job will be a low-end RB1.

Some expect Forsett to retain his place atop the depth chart.  Certainly possible IMO.

Many think Kenneth Dixon will win the job.  Dixon is the trendy pick.  Not for me.  Small school guy will have a lot to learn in his rookie season and he had severe fumbling issues in college for which Harbaugh has a zero tolerance policy.  Rookies always fumble with bad timing.

I believe the answer is Buck Allen.  He is an excellent receiver, showed well when all the rest of the Ravens' offensive talent was already injured, and he already learned the rookie fumble lesson when Harbaugh benched him for a game and a half.  Allen responded to the message by protecting the ball.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SouthernJet]

13 hours ago, RoadFan said:

One of most interesting, and most impactful, fantasy storylines is how the Ravens RB situation shakes out.  Baltimore will be a very good team again, prefer a workhorse type running game over a committee, and whomever wins that job will be a low-end RB1.

Some expect Forsett to retain his place atop the depth chart.  Certainly possible IMO.

Many think Kenneth Dixon will win the job.  Dixon is the trendy pick.  Not for me.  Small school guy will have a lot to learn in his rookie season and he had severe fumbling issues in college for which Harbaugh has a zero tolerance policy.  Rookies always fumble with bad timing.

I believe the answer is Buck Allen.  He is an excellent receiver, showed well when all the rest of the Ravens' offensive talent was already injured, and he already learned the rookie fumble lesson when Harbaugh benched him for a game and a half.  Allen responded to the message by protecting the ball.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ya Buck is guy to take in Fantasy........