Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid - Garrett Wilson

[Mr. Rogers]

22 hours ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

LMAO

GW goes first round in every early best ball draft

Bro is a virtual lock for 140+ targets as the main engine of the air attack

Only way anyone is sniffing him in the back half of the 2nd round is if they play in a 6-team league 🤣😂

To be fair, this is pretty format dependent. He may be a great best ball pick, but I run an old fashioned 10 man, half ppr league with mostly standard scoring. Accounting for RB scarcity and the fact that several WRs are ahead of GW as fantasy staples with a more narrow, high-end range of outcomes, the mid to late 2nd round is exactly where GW belongs in my book.

Wilson easily has top 5 upside, but I also drafted him in the late 2nd last year with that hope and got burned pretty badly. That wouldn't stop me from taking him.there again (especially since most WRs could suffer this same misfortune), but GW is looking at a pretty large range of outcomes. Labeling him as a likely bust is goofy, but I think a 15-18 ADP is reasonable. Particularly in half PPR. 

[RevisIsland610]

2 hours ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

I find a lot of your posts difficult to digest, but I actually agree with you here. I play in a fantasy league with some old friends (it’s a nice way to stay in touch, among other things), but end up drafting too many Jets every year and avoid players from the Jets AFCE rivals. Even doing that, I often end up rooting against my fantasy team when another AFC team seems to be a threat to the Jets interests (granted, over the last 8 years or so, that hasn’t been a problem by Thanksgiving). So, usually BOTH my fantasy team and real team suck. But some day having all those Jets is going to pay off … right?

 

As for Wilson being just fine in real football, he’s a very nice player, but I agree with the poster who said he has a few more steps to take before he’s solidified as one of the handful of elite NFL wide receivers.

Yea, like an actual NFL QB throwing him the ball. It's a minor miracle he caught 95 balls for 1042 yards with the 3 stooges throwing to him. The kid is an absolute stud. 

[neckdemon]

12 hours ago, Warfish said:

If you find joy in drafting Tua and Allen and rooting them on to high production days for your fantasy team, great. I cannot. Never could. Which makes fantasy football for me an exercise in “draft all the Jets” then lose in the fantasy league lol.

For me there is simply a cognitive dissonance between being a hard core Jets fan and rooting for Tua or Allen (examples, could be any rival players) to do well. I’d rather root against these guys than win at fantasy football.

 JMO.

The larger point in this thread for me is this: G. Wilson is a great talent, and should have a great year for us playing real actual non-fantasy football. A thread sh*tting on him because he won’t be great in fantasy football is stupid IMO. 

idk i've had josh allen on my roster (and actually he is on my dynasty sf roster) and him scoring points for me in fantasy has never taken away from my joy of watching the jets suck the past 10 years

[Rich Thornburgh]

All I know is im drafting Zach Wilson first round in my money league

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, neckdemon said:

idk i've had josh allen on my roster (and actually he is on my dynasty sf roster) and him scoring points for me in fantasy has never taken away from my joy of watching the jets suck the past 10 years

To each their own.

[green&white]

On 5/22/2024 at 5:53 PM, Dcat said:

No he got his digs in.  Oh Look!  A thread about a Jet WR and fantasy football!  I hate fantasy football, so of course I'll hop right in.  

Having a hard time understanding the motive.  

An opportunity to say "I'm superior to you because I am a football purist"

[Scott Dierking]

On 5/23/2024 at 7:17 AM, Warfish said:

 

For me there is simply a cognitive dissonance between being a hard core Jets fan and rooting for Tua or Allen (examples, could be any rival players) to do well. I’d rather root against these guys than win at fantasy football.

 

Wait a second here. Rooting for players ( or conversely against) actually affects their performance on the field?

It is no wonder the Jets have been so awful. We have not been rooting hard enough for them. 😀

[JustInFudge]

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

To each their own.

I appreciate your growth in this thread.  Truly impressive! 

You started w/ a - FF is only for a certain group of individuals and provided a very simplistic narrow minded opinion of what the group finds important.  

And in a just a few hours, you've gone totally woke and are like totally understand and accepting to the point where now, you're all like, yo "to each their own"!  ❤️ 

Big of you, my friend.  Everyone thinks you're just a hard headed, set in your ways, curmudgeon and then you go and pull this move!  Way to lead by example!  So proud of you! 

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

I appreciate your growth in this thread.  Truly impressive! 

You started w/ a - FF is only for a certain group of individuals and provided a very simplistic narrow minded opinion of what the group finds important.  

And in a just a few hours, you've gone totally woke and are like totally understand and accepting to the point where now, you're all like, yo "to each their own"!  ❤️ 

Big of you, my friend.  Everyone thinks you're just a hard headed, set in your ways, curmudgeon and then you go and pull this move!  Way to lead by example!  So proud of you! 

Nothing about my view has changed Fudgey, there is no growth.  Sorry to be a disappointment. 

And yes, I know your post was pure dripping sarcasm. 

I have said all along this is my opinion, I don't expect others to feel the same, and I'm well aware how in the minority I am in this view.  But I will never get how a hardcore Jets Fan can draft Josh Allen or Tua (etc.) for their Fantasy teams and then actively root for them to succeed.  As I said, cognitive dissonance as I see it (rooting for a rivals QB or player), and a VERY old school, rivals-are-to-be-hated attitude.  But modern fans are far less serious about such things, todays rival is tomorrow's free agent crush and this weeks personal fantasy team stud I guess.

/shrug.  Think enough has been said at this point, given the only reason I posted in the thread was to defend G. Wilson from criticism.  

 

[bicketybam]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Nothing about my view has changed Fudgey, there is no growth.  Sorry to be a disappointment. 

And yes, I know your post was pure dripping sarcasm. 

I have said all along this is my opinion, I don't expect others to feel the same, and I'm well aware how in the minority I am in this view.  But I will never get how a hardcore Jets Fan can draft Josh Allen or Tua (etc.) for their Fantasy teams and then actively root for them to succeed.  As I said, cognitive dissonance as I see it (rooting for a rivals QB or player), and a VERY old school, rivals-are-to-be-hated attitude.  But modern fans are far less serious about such things, todays rival is tomorrow's free agent crush and this weeks personal fantasy team stud I guess.

/shrug.  Think enough has been said at this point, given the only reason I posted in the thread was to defend G. Wilson from criticism.  

 

Not every topic is for everyone, or so I've been told 😉

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Not every topic is for everyone, or so I've been told 😉

The difference is I didn't come into this thread and tell you it shouldn't be a thread at all or be discussed at all, which is what you did.  

As noted, I have a specific reason to post, to defend G. Wilson as a great player who's going to have a great year.  So this thread was definitely for me.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Nothing about my view has changed Fudgey, there is no growth.  Sorry to be a disappointment. 

And yes, I know your post was pure dripping sarcasm. 

I have said all along this is my opinion, I don't expect others to feel the same, and I'm well aware how in the minority I am in this view.  But I will never get how a hardcore Jets Fan can draft Josh Allen or Tua (etc.) for their Fantasy teams and then actively root for them to succeed.  As I said, cognitive dissonance as I see it (rooting for a rivals QB or player), and a VERY old school, rivals-are-to-be-hated attitude.  But modern fans are far less serious about such things, todays rival is tomorrow's free agent crush and this weeks personal fantasy team stud I guess.

/shrug.  Think enough has been said at this point, given the only reason I posted in the thread was to defend G. Wilson from criticism.  

 

So, not to each their own?  I'm confused more then disappointed. 

I'm going to assume you may not realize how FF works but it's neat, a player can succeed in Fantasy Football and score lots of points for your team but their team can also lose!  I dont think enough has been said, because I find your take fascinating.  I have questions:

Am I not a hardcore Jets fan because I want (but not root) for Josh Allen to have 300 yards and 3 TD's in a loss?  Do other players stats actually matter to you as it pertains to being a hardcore Jets fan?  If the Jets finish ahead of the Bills in the division but Allen leads the league in TD's, are you upset by that? 

If I draft DJ Moore (a player who plays for a team we wont face and plays in the NFC) over Garrett Wilson, am I not a hardcore Jets fan?

If I really wanted Breece Hall but he was taken before my pick so I ended up w/ James Cook but each week I wanted Hall to out produce Cook, still not a hardcore?

What if my approach to each draft is to avoid players on the Bills, Fins and Pats?  but maybe take some other AFC players...is my hardcoreness in question?

 

 

[bicketybam]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The difference is I didn't come into this thread and tell you it shouldn't be a thread at all or be discussed at all, which is what you did. 

I did no such thing. All I did was post a meme suggesting I agreed with another poster that the topic was embarrassing, to which you gave a mighty "thumbs down." Funny you never disapproved of the comment I was agreeing with 🤔

You are one of the biggest hypocrites here. "Do as I say and not as I do!" 😅

[Warfish]

30 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

So, not to each their own?

Let me repeat myself from the very post you quoted:  

"I have said all along this is my opinion, I don't expect others to feel the same, and I'm well aware how in the minority I am in this view."

i.e. to each their own, my view is my own, others (most others) feel very differently.  I'm not asking, not expecting, them to change to suit me.

30 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

I'm confused more then disappointed.

I'm well aware at this point I'm being trolled for my opinion.  But I'm nothing if not an easy riser to the bait.....

30 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

I dont think enough has been said, because I find your take fascinating.  I have questions:

Am I not a hardcore Jets fan because I want (but not root) for Josh Allen to have 300 yards and 3 TD's in a loss?  Do other players stats actually matter to you as it pertains to being a hardcore Jets fan?  If the Jets finish ahead of the Bills in the division but Allen leads the league in TD's, are you upset by that?

Your (and anyone's) level of Jets Fandom is for you to define/self-identify, not for me.  I don't question other fans fandom.

As clearly noted, several times now, this is about how I see things.  It's not about you.

To answer one question, rooting for a (rival) player to have a 300+ yard, 3+ TD day generally means that player wins.  Good production -> Teams winning.  Good production, especially at QB, increases the likelihood of his team winning.  Again, for me, there would be a form of cognitive dissonance rooting hard for Allen to have an all-world day while also thinking I'm rooting for his team to lose.  

And yes, if Josh Allen leads the league in TD's I would not be happy about that fact.   I want Aaron Rodgers to lead the league in TD's.  

30 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

If I draft DJ Moore (a player who plays for a team we wont face and plays in the NFC) over Garrett Wilson, am I not a hardcore Jets fan?

Your level of Jets Fandom is for you to define/self-identify, not me.  I will not question your fandom Fudgey, no matter how you ask it.

But presumably you'd be also rooting for Moore on gameday too, right?    He's not a rival (check), he's not playing against the Jets that week (check), in fact he could be playing against one of our rivals (so rooting for him is rooting against a rival, check) right? 

So no dissonance in this situation as I see it, in the scenario as defined.

30 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

What if my approach to each draft is to avoid players on the Bills, Fins and Pats?  but maybe take some other AFC players...is my hardcoreness in question?

YOUR hardcoreness was never in question in the first place.

if the point here is that my very first post saying "Fantasy Football is for folks who like drafting their most hated rivals starting QB and then rooting for them to produce." was too much, too harsh, too aggressive, too whatever, and should be withdrawn, you're probably right.  Or just right, no probably required.

[Scott Dierking]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Let me repeat myself from the very post you quoted:  

"I have said all along this is my opinion, I don't expect others to feel the same, and I'm well aware how in the minority I am in this view."

i.e. to each their own, my view is my own, others (most others) feel very differently.  I'm not asking, not expecting, them to change to suit me.

I'm well aware at this point I'm being trolled for my opinion.  But I'm nothing if not an easy riser to the bait.....

Your (and anyone's) level of Jets Fandom is for you to define/self-identify, not for me.  I don't question other fans fandom.

As clearly noted, several times now, this is about how I see things.  It's not about you.

To answer one question, rooting for a (rival) player to have a 300+ yard, 3+ TD day generally means that player wins.  Good production -> Teams winning.  Good production, especially at QB, increases the likelihood of his team winning.  Again, for me, there would be a form of cognitive dissonance rooting hard for Allen to have an all-world day while also thinking I'm rooting for his team to lose.  

And yes, if Josh Allen leads the league in TD's I would not be happy about that fact.   I want Aaron Rodgers to lead the league in TD's.  

Your level of Jets Fandom is for you to define/self-identify, not me.  I will not question your fandom Fudgey, no matter how you ask it.

But presumably you'd be also rooting for Moore on gameday too, right?    He's not a rival (check), he's not playing against the Jets that week (check), in fact he could be playing against one of our rivals (so rooting for him is rooting against a rival, check) right? 

So no dissonance in this situation as I see it, in the scenario as defined.

YOUR hardcoreness was never in question in the first place.

Everything you say here, fine. BUT, what does someone "rooting" for a player they drafted actually have causal affect in that players performance? Whether against the team you "root" for or not?

I obviously know the answer here, and you are a smart guy, but the basis of fantasy sports is to have the opportunity to play GM. Build a team based on how you think players will produce. 

If you are systematically picking all players for the team you root for, because you think that you will then not have to root for players that may be playing your team of fandom, you are basically asking people to take your lunch. And if that is the case, why even play?

 

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Everything you say here, fine. BUT, what does someone "rooting" for a player they drafted actually have causal affect in that players performance?

It doesn't.  

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

......but the basis of fantasy sports is to have the opportunity to play GM. Build a team based on how you think players will produce. 

Correct.  Part of trying to win any game is rooting for your assets to do well, right?

So again, if you picked Allen, you're rooting for Allen to do well, right?

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

If you are systematically picking all players for the team you root for, because you think that you will then not have to root for players that may be playing your team of fandom, you are basically asking people to take your lunch. And if that is the case, why even play?

I don't play.

[Scott Dierking]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

 

So again, if you picked Allen, you're rooting for Allen to do well, right?

 

I actually realize that my "wants" on player performance have nothing to do with their actual performance. 

[DoubleDown]

Fantasy football opinions and projections are like assholes.  Everyone has one.

While I personally believe Wilson has stud potential this season, there are a few things that could potentially make him a "bust" at his current ADP.

- An injury to Wilson and/or Rodgers
- Williams, Corley, and Breece eat away at Wilson's targets
- Williams and one or more of the TEs eat away at Wilson's red zone targets
- Wilson's drops from last season turn into a trend rather than an aberration

Wilson was the clear #1 with little to no competition for targets in the second half of 2022 and all of 2023.  He is still the projected #1 in 2024, but the Jets have added some firepower on offense so we may see a decrease in volume.  That's not a bad thing for the team, but it can be for Wilson in terms of individual production.

We've never seen Wilson in an Aaron Rodgers led offense for any extended period of time.  We'll see how it plays out.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Let me repeat myself from the very post you quoted:  

"I have said all along this is my opinion, I don't expect others to feel the same, and I'm well aware how in the minority I am in this view."

i.e. to each their own, my view is my own, others (most others) feel very differently.  I'm not asking, not expecting, them to change to suit me.

I'm well aware at this point I'm being trolled for my opinion.  But I'm nothing if not an easy riser to the bait.....

Your (and anyone's) level of Jets Fandom is for you to define/self-identify, not for me.  I don't question other fans fandom.

As clearly noted, several times now, this is about how I see things.  It's not about you.

To answer one question, rooting for a (rival) player to have a 300+ yard, 3+ TD day generally means that player wins.  Good production -> Teams winning.  Good production, especially at QB, increases the likelihood of his team winning.  Again, for me, there would be a form of cognitive dissonance rooting hard for Allen to have an all-world day while also thinking I'm rooting for his team to lose.  

And yes, if Josh Allen leads the league in TD's I would not be happy about that fact.   I want Aaron Rodgers to lead the league in TD's.  

Your level of Jets Fandom is for you to define/self-identify, not me.  I will not question your fandom Fudgey, no matter how you ask it.

But presumably you'd be also rooting for Moore on gameday too, right?    He's not a rival (check), he's not playing against the Jets that week (check), in fact he could be playing against one of our rivals (so rooting for him is rooting against a rival, check) right? 

So no dissonance in this situation as I see it, in the scenario as defined.

YOUR hardcoreness was never in question in the first place.

if the point here is that my very first post saying "Fantasy Football is for folks who like drafting their most hated rivals starting QB and then rooting for them to produce." was too much, too harsh, too aggressive, too whatever, and should be withdrawn, you're probably right.  Or just right, no probably required.

This was everything I wanted in a rebuttal and more.  The Warfish is a fascinating man who I once misunderstood greatly and now, I actually admire and appreciate.

Also, I ******* love the nickname Fudgey.  It's epic.  

I think I'm falling for you.

Sorry, @The Crusher

 

[Warfish]

24 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

This was everything I wanted in a rebuttal and more.  The Warfish is a fascinating man who I once misunderstood greatly and now, I actually admire and appreciate.

Also, I ******* love the nickname Fudgey.  It's epic.  

I think I'm falling for you.

Sorry, @The Crusher

 

On the bright side, @The Crusher and I live less than 10 minutes from each other, so we COULD come as a two-pack really.

One hellishly large two-pack........

[Warfish]

26 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Also, I ******* love the nickname Fudgey.  It's epic.  

[DoubleDown]

I try not to get emotionally invested in players who are on my fantasy team.  The way I see it, the player is going to do what they are going to do regardless of whether they are on my fantasy team or not.  My "rooting" has nothing to do with the ultimate outcome.

I've made it a point to not check in or monitor my fantasy matchup while the games are happening.  It's pointless and just leads to anger and frustration (why couldn't he just pick up that one extra yard or make that one routine catch in the flat?).  Doing a periodic check in after the Thursday game, 1PM games, and Sunday night is perfectly sufficient and brings my stress levels down.

[bicketybam]

I was once told that if you are optimistic and root for Jets players, as well as for the team to do well you are a "Sunnysider." That's a "bad" thing. 

The amount of hypocrisy by some in this thread is just unbelievable. 🤡

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

On the bright side, @The Crusher and I live less than 10 minutes from each other, so we COULD come as a two-pack really.

One hellishly large two-pack........

[JustInFudge]

43 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I try not to get emotionally invested in players who are on my fantasy team.  The way I see it, the player is going to do what they are going to do regardless of whether they are on my fantasy team or not.  My "rooting" has nothing to do with the ultimate outcome.

I've made it a point to not check in or monitor my fantasy matchup while the games are happening.  It's pointless and just leads to anger and frustration (why couldn't he just pick up that one extra yard or make that one routine catch in the flat?).  Doing a periodic check in after the Thursday game, 1PM games, and Sunday night is perfectly sufficient and brings my stress levels down.

Funny because it's true.  I'd be furious the Jets are losing and some dipsh*t had 0 pts in the first half, only to explode in the second half, so I got angry over nothing, and the Jets are already enough to be angry at for one Sunday afternoon. 

Ironically at this point for me it has become superstition.  I dont check my scores until after the 4pm games end.

[bicketybam]

2 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Funny because it's true.  I'd be furious the Jets are losing and some dipsh*t had 0 pts in the first half, only to explode in the second half, so I got angry over nothing, and the Jets are already enough to be angry at for one Sunday afternoon. 

Ironically at this point for me it has become superstition.  I dont check my scores until after the 4pm games end.

And I get yelled at for being optimistic about the Jets. Like it actually matters 😅

[Dcat]

On 5/24/2024 at 1:46 PM, DoubleDown said:

I try not to get emotionally invested in players who are on my fantasy team.  The way I see it, the player is going to do what they are going to do regardless of whether they are on my fantasy team or not.  My "rooting" has nothing to do with the ultimate outcome.

I've made it a point to not check in or monitor my fantasy matchup while the games are happening.  It's pointless and just leads to anger and frustration (why couldn't he just pick up that one extra yard or make that one routine catch in the flat?).  Doing a periodic check in after the Thursday game, 1PM games, and Sunday night is perfectly sufficient and brings my stress levels down.

 

On 5/24/2024 at 2:34 PM, JustInFudge said:

Funny because it's true.  I'd be furious the Jets are losing and some dipsh*t had 0 pts in the first half, only to explode in the second half, so I got angry over nothing, and the Jets are already enough to be angry at for one Sunday afternoon. 

Ironically at this point for me it has become superstition.  I dont check my scores until after the 4pm games end.

Good advice guys.  I try to avoid the early Sunday add-stress-for-no-good-reason score checking around half time.  Note the word: "try"        

[Dcat]

On 5/24/2024 at 1:54 PM, bicketybam said:

I was once told that if you are optimistic and root for Jets players, as well as for the team to do well you are a "Sunnysider." That's a "bad" thing. 

The amount of hypocrisy by some in this thread is just unbelievable. 🤡

Ha.  Reminds me of the sunnyside/shadyside discussions of MetLife some years ago. 
Nothing to do with your topic but just popped into my head:   I still think the shady side at MetLife is better. Sunnyside too hot in Sept/Oct. Always squinting, even wearing shades in sunny games. I park nearer to the MetLife main entrance on visitor side, so Sunnyside really sucks as to getting to and from car/seats. The "shady side" actually is sunny until about 2:30 - 3 in the mid fall  and almost all the way past 4pm in early September.   

And G5 will be very good for anyone's fantasy team IMO.