For those who want D'Brick at #4

[JoeWillie]

For those of you who are clamoring to draft D

[PatsFanTX]

For those of you who are clamoring to draft D

[Maxman]

I'd love to know how QB's and RB's drafted in the top 10 over the same period have fared in the NFL as well.

Odds of Drafting a Consistent Starter with a Top 10 Pick

OT- EXCELLENT

DT- EXCELLENT

WR: 86%

DE: 77%

CB: 76%

RB: 67%

QB: 46%

Odds of Drafting a Pro Bowler with a Top 10 Pick

RB: 56%

OL: 54%

DT: 50%

WR: 39%

CB: 38 %

QB: 33%

DE: 33%

http://www.jetnation.com/?p=464

[JoeWillie]

Great analysis.

But the bottom line is ANY player you draft in the top 10 will always be a risk.

The trick is to try and minimize that risk.

I'd love to know how QB's and RB's drafted in the top 10 over the same period have fared in the NFL as well.

Good question. When I get some time, I'll do it. The only thing about that are that there are less RB's and QB's then Olinemen, so generally good linemen can be found in the lower rounds at a much more frequest rate.

That's not to say you can't, of course. Case in point, your boy up in New England.

That said, I look at this much more from a financial standpoint in the NFL.

With the Salary cap, I'd rather use the big money on your skill positions (QB, RB, Key impact defensive players)

[Xcel2NuFX]

There is a problem with this analysis. Most of these player are only in the league 4 years or so and were drafted in the top 10 because their respective teams were in bad shape to begin with. Also was Kyle Turley on the Rams during their superbowl years?

My point being you need to look at the entire career of these guys. Look up guys that were drafted back in the mid 90's or so and do the same analysis on them and it would give you more telling results.

Regardless of what team these guys were on most of them have turned out to be solid pro's.

[JoeWillie]

Odds of Drafting a Consistent Starter with a Top 10 Pick

OT- EXCELLENT

DT- EXCELLENT

WR: 86%

DE: 77%

CB: 76%

RB: 67%

QB: 46%

Odds of Drafting a Pro Bowler with a Top 10 Pick

RB: 56%

OL: 54%

DT: 50%

WR: 39%

CB: 38 %

QB: 33%

DE: 33%

http://www.jetnation.com/?p=464

We're talking about an OT in the first round leading to sucessful playoff teams, not so much being a consistent successful player. My point is that you have a greater cahnce of finding those players later because there are a greater number of them.

I'm not sure what "excellent" means in this analysis.

I've given you the exact numbers of 1st rounders picked since 1998 and how the teams have fared since the picks.

You can see how it relates to team success.

[JoeWillie]

There is a problem with this analysis. Most of these player are only in the league 4 years or so and were drafted in the top 10 because their respective teams were in bad shape to begin with. Also was Kyle Turley on the Rams during their superbowl years?

My point being you need to look at the entire career of these guys. Look up guys that were drafted back in the mid 90's or so and do the same analysis on them and it would give you more telling results.

Regardless of what team these guys were on most of them have turned out to be solid pro's.

Again, my point is not that some of them have not become solid pros.

The point is that it hasn't, in most cases, led to team success. Look at the teams that have been succesful in the past 10 years.

Most have built their O lines through means other than the first round of the annual draft.

[Xcel2NuFX]

Again, my point is not that some of them have not become solid pros.

The point is that it hasn't, in most cases, led to team success. Look at the teams that have been succesful in the past 10 years.

Most have built their O lines through means other than the first round of the annual draft.

While it would be more Ideal to find linemen later on in the draft it isn't exactly an easy thing to do.

Just to point out what I was saying guys like Orlando Pace and Jonathan Ogden who were picked in the top 5 led their respective teams to Super Bowls

[Xcel2NuFX]

And of course you can't build an entire line with first round picks all the way across you have to take one when you have the oppurtunity that can be the anchor on the left side who can protect your QB's blind side.

It's food for thought thats for sure but I still think Ferguson is a no Brainer if Mario Williams is off the board.

[JoeWillie]

While it would be more Ideal to find linemen later on in the draft it isn't exactly an easy thing to do.

Just to point out what I was saying guys like Orlando Pace and Jonathan Ogden who were picked in the top 5 led their respective teams to Super Bowls

Disagree. It's a helluva lot easier than finding a RB or a QB. History has proven that. It's also easier to get solid, expereinced offensive linemen through free agency.

I pointed out Carolina and New England above.

The issue is impact to the team.

In the article that sights WR's being the least risky pick in the first round ... that might be the case, but that doesn't necessarily mean you build your offense around a WR.

[JoeWillie]

And of course you can't build an entire line with first round picks all the way across you have to take one when you have the oppurtunity that can be the anchor on the left side who can protect your QB's blind side.

It's food for thought thats for sure but I still think Ferguson is a no Brainer if Mario Williams is off the board.

One thing we agree on ...

Mario Williams at #4.

I'm with you on that.

Good discussion.

[NJ]

D'Brick D'Man

[PatsFanTX]

Odds of Drafting a Pro Bowler with a Top 10 Pick

RB: 56%

OL: 54%

DT: 50%

WR: 39%

CB: 38 %

QB: 33%

DE: 33%

See, right there is a major flaw in thinking with the majority of football fans.

You don't use a top 10 pick thinking they will become a Pro-Bowler.

What you want out of a top 10 pick is an immediate starting contibution to your football team for the life of the original contract (because it is so expensive).

If said player happens to make the Pro Bowl or become an All Pro, that is icing on the cake.

But just so I cover myself with bit, if you give up a king's ranson like two 1st's and a 4th for a top 10 pick, said player BETTER be a Pro Bowler or an All Pro or he will be considered a BUST.

Right bit?

[JoeWillie]

See, right there is a major flaw in thinking with the majority of football fans.

You don't use a top 10 pick thinking they will become a Pro-Bowler.

What you want out of a top 10 pick is an immediate starting contibution to your football team for the life of the original contract (because it is so expensive).

If said player happens to make the Pro Bowl or become an All Pro, that is icing on the cake.

But just so I cover myself with bit, if you give up a king's ranson like two 1st's and a 4th for a top 10 pick, said player BETTER be a Pro Bowler or an All Pro or he will be considered a BUST.

Right bit?

My point exactly.

[Xcel2NuFX]

Disagree. It's a helluva lot easier than finding a RB or a QB. History has proven that. It's also easier to get solid, expereinced offensive linemen through free agency.

I pointed out Carolina and New England above.

The issue is impact to the team.

In the article that sights WR's being the least risky pick in the first round ... that might be the case, but that doesn't necessarily mean you build your offense around a WR.

We need help on offense plain and simple. If we don't go 3 and out every series and we have a rested Defense I don't think they will look anything like we saw last year. I think a RB could be a solid pick with 29 or 35 but I would also like to see us draft DL, CB, LB.

We can't fix the team with one pick so we gotta realize that.

[JoeWillie]

We need help on offense plain and simple. If we don't go 3 and out every series and we have a rested Defense I don't think they will look anything like we saw last year. I think a RB could be a solid pick with 29 or 35 but I would also like to see us draft DL, CB, LB.

We can't fix the team with one pick so we gotta realize that.

Agreed. The offense needs help.

But I have to believe a healthy Curtis and an experienced QB make them much better "out of the gate" then last year. No doubt the O Line needs repair in order to maximize both Curtis and the QB, but I do believe we will do that through means other than the #4 pick, at least I hope so. I'd be happy with the DT or Mario at #4 and offense at #29 and #35. Wouldn't even mind taking a chance on a second tier QB later on.

[slats]

Just to point out what I was saying guys like Orlando Pace and Jonathan Ogden who were picked in the top 5 led their respective teams to Super Bowls

Jon Ogden led the Ravens to the Super Bowl? C'mon!

That team was all defense and special teams. 100%.

Jon Ogden should be the poster boy for not taking an OT at the top of the draft. 'Cause here's a guy who's been to the Pro Bowl nine straight years and the offense he's played with in that time has never been ranked higher than 14th! The average ranking for that offense is 21st over those nine years.

You have a skill position player on your offense making the Pro Bowl nine straight years, and I can pretty much guarantee you that offense will be a helluva lot better than 21st. Offense tackle is not an impact position. It does not deserve to be taken with the fourth pick of the draft, or paid like the fourth pick in the draft.

There are much better and more efficient ways to build a high quality offensive line, which has to be a priority. But take that high pick and spend it on a player who'll make an impact.

[Xcel2NuFX]

Agreed. The offense needs help.

But I have to believe a healthy Curtis and an experienced QB make them much better "out of the gate" then last year. No doubt the O Line needs repair in order to maximize both Curtis and the QB, but I do believe we will do that through means other than the #4 pick, at least I hope so. I'd be happy with the DT or Mario at #4 and offense at #29 and #35. Wouldn't even mind taking a chance on a second tier QB later on.

Yeah I agree as long as the player we draft #4 is going to be an immediate starter on the team I won't cry if we choose someone else over D'Brick.

Only thing is I don't really want to draft a QB who has question marks surrounding their name. I would be totally cool with the DT who I also can not remember how to spell or say from Oregon. I've only heard good things about him and I'm fed up of watching D-Rob slack off.

A.J. Hawk and Vernon Davis would also be immediate starters. Lets just not take Vince Young pleas don't take Vince Young thats all I ask of the Jets.

[PatsFanTX]

Jon Ogden led the Ravens to the Super Bowl? C'mon!

That team was all defense and special teams. 100%.

Jon Ogden should be the poster boy for not taking an OT at the top of the draft. 'Cause here's a guy who's been to the Pro Bowl nine straight years and the offense he's played with in that time has never been ranked higher than 14th! The average ranking for that offense is 21st over those nine years.

You have a skill position player on your offense making the Pro Bowl nine straight years, and I can pretty much guarantee you that offense will be a helluva lot better than 21st. Offense tackle is not an impact position. It does not deserve to be taken with the fourth pick of the draft, or paid like the fourth pick in the draft.

There are much better and more efficient ways to build a high quality offensive line, which has to be a priority. But take that high pick and spend it on a player who'll make an impact.

slats,

Just curious, who would you take with the #4 pick?

[slats]

slats,

Just curious, who would you take with the #4 pick?

I'm more firm on who I don't want than who I do.

I'd be happy with Mario or Hawk, but Vernon Davis would excite me a lot more than either of those guys. It's a risky pick, but I'd like it.

[Xcel2NuFX]

Jon Ogden led the Ravens to the Super Bowl? C'mon!

That team was all defense and special teams. 100%.

Jon Ogden should be the poster boy for not taking an OT at the top of the draft. 'Cause here's a guy who's been to the Pro Bowl nine straight years and the offense he's played with in that time has never been ranked higher than 14th! The average ranking for that offense is 21st over those nine years.

You have a skill position player on your offense making the Pro Bowl nine straight years, and I can pretty much guarantee you that offense will be a helluva lot better than 21st. Offense tackle is not an impact position. It does not deserve to be taken with the fourth pick of the draft, or paid like the fourth pick in the draft.

There are much better and more efficient ways to build a high quality offensive line, which has to be a priority. But take that high pick and spend it on a player who'll make an impact.

Are you serious? Jamal Lewis having 2000 yards rushing had nothing to do with him either I assume. That is ust ridiculous man the reason they haven't been ranked any higher than 14th is because they have no QB!!! I mean come on man I don't mean to attack anyone here but you can't be serious? If thats your arguement than my other example was Orlando Pace. How has their offense done since drafting him?

Don't come here and tell me Jonathan Ogden is the poster boy for not drafting a LT, and don't tell me that LT is not an impact position because you sound extremely misinformed my friend. How can you say it's not an impact position when they are the guys protecting our QB's butt and they are going opposite some of the biggest play makers in the game playing DE.

If OT isn't an impact position than I guess Defensive end isn't either.

Oh yeah Walter Jones the #6 pick in 97' hasn't made an impact on the Seahawks either I suppose.

[slats]

Don't come here and tell me Jonathan Ogden is the poster boy for not drafting a LT, and don't tell me that LT is not an impact position because you sound extremely misinformed my friend. How can you say it's not an impact position when they are the guys protecting our QB's butt and they are going opposite some of the biggest play makers in the game playing DE.

If OT isn't an impact position than I guess Defensive end isn't either.

Oh yeah Walter Jones the #6 pick in 97' hasn't made an impact on the Seahawks either I suppose.

Lewis ran for 1364 yards with 6 TD's in their Super Bowl year. Jon Ogden and the entire offense had zero to do with their championship. Despite Ogden's presence, that offense has sucked for all nine of his pro bowl years. A player who truly had an impact on the offense would elevate his unit a lot more.

You can negate an LT simply by lining up your best pass rusher on the other side of him. All of a sudden, you've got a $50M OT blocking Bryan Thomas. Big impact. Of course a DE is an impact player, but I can move him around and take advantage of his skills. Line him up and create mismatches. Can't really do that with the tackle.

Jones and Pace are quality guys, but they aren't the guys driving their offenses. Teams like the Pats and Broncos have won some Super Bowls with solid OL play without a top five pick playing LT. That's overkill, IMHO.

There's plenty of OL help available in this draft, and I'd take some of it later. Belichick never took an OL that high, and neither did Bradway (God rest his soul). This is the tree that Mangenbaum come from. I don't see them taking D'Brick, either. I think they understand that there're better ways to build a team.

[PeterNorth09]

Robert Gallery was getting the same rave reviews coming out of college that Ferguson is getting now. So much so that Al Davis drafted Gallery at #2 overall over guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Ben Roethlisberger.

I'm not saying Ferguson will be a bust like Gallery but when there are a lot of guys at his position who could easily end up being as good if not better maybe we should look elsewhere at 4.

[JoeWillie]

Robert Gallery was getting the same rave reviews coming out of college that Ferguson is getting now. So much so that Al Davis drafted Gallery at #2 overall over guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Ben Roethlisberger.

I'm not saying Ferguson will be a bust like Gallery but when there are a lot of guys at his position who could easily end up being as good if not better maybe we should look elsewhere at 4.

North and Slats - Exactly the point of my original thread. Both of you right on.

Couldn't agree more.

[raffyD]

Skill position players can't make the pro bowl 9 straight years w/o a good oline and that starts with the LT.

[Shadetree]

Skill position players can't make the pro bowl 9 straight years w/o a good oline and that starts with the LT.

I agree with you, raffy, but with all the off season OLine acquisitions via FA(although they arent top of the line players), and depth in the draft, I think Brick is a real long shot @ #4.

Keep in mind, Mangini, although young, is a Beli/Tuna protege. I think these guys are very confident in their ability to 'coach up' the offensive line. There might be too much talent @ OT in the draft to take Brick @ #4 in my opinion.

If they aint taking a QB, they'll take Williams, Hawk, or Ngata, IMO. These are guys that are close to off the charts instinctively and physically for their postions and are a pretty much a given to play that way for 7-10 years.

Again, I wouldnt be unhappy with Brick, but the offseason FA activity tells me they will go in a different direction.

[raffyD]

I agree with you, raffy, but with all the off season OLine acquisitions via FA(although they arent top of the line players), and depth in the draft, I think Brick is a real long shot @ #4.

Keep in mind, Mangini, although young, is a Beli/Tuna protege. I think these guys are very confident in their ability to 'coach up' the offensive line. There might be too much talent @ OT in the draft to take Brick @ #4 in my opinion.

If they aint taking a QB, they'll take Williams, Hawk, or Ngata, IMO. These are guys that are close to off the charts instinctively and physically for their postions and are a pretty much a given to play that way for 7-10 years.

Again, I wouldnt be unhappy with Brick, but the offseason FA activity tells me they will go in a different direction.

I'm not saying I disagree, I'm just saying that in response to the "we need playmakers" comments. Playmakers don't line up 1 on 11.

We have a lot of needs and as long as we get the best at one position, which we should if we pick at 4, then we should be ok. All this sh!t is just so unpredictable. Honestly, Davis could play for 15 years at a probowl level or he might break his leg riding a motorcycle or driving drunk in his rookie year. That's why I like that our FO is going after smart, football guys, I think that should work in the long term.

[shutout]

I agree with you, raffy, but with all the off season OLine acquisitions via FA(although they arent top of the line players), and depth in the draft, I think Brick is a real long shot @ #4.

Keep in mind, Mangini, although young, is a Beli/Tuna protege. I think these guys are very confident in their ability to 'coach up' the offensive line. There might be too much talent @ OT in the draft to take Brick @ #4 in my opinion.

If they aint taking a QB, they'll take Williams, Hawk, or Ngata, IMO. These are guys that are close to off the charts instinctively and physically for their postions and are a pretty much a given to play that way for 7-10 years.

Again, I wouldnt be unhappy with Brick, but the offseason FA activity tells me they will go in a different direction.

I think that with the FA signings,we've put ourselves in a position to take the BAP at #4. Not saying that we've necessarily climbed back into contention,but we've plugged some holes. The only thing now is: who's BAP on Tangini's draft board come #4? IMO,unless Bush miraculously falls to us,D'brick is BAP,just slightly over Williams. However,this draft is amazingly loaded with talent. I truly believe the only way we can blow the #4 pick is by taking Vince Young (and to a lesser extent Cutler and Leinart).