Jets' College Scouts - Success (or lack thereof) by Position

[T0mShane]

you cant have it both ways.. you complain about trading picks now when they were used to get guys like cromartie and holmes who helped us get in the playoffs and then we miss the playoffs and you want to start a lynch mob....

if sanchez plays a smidge better we make the playoffs and aren't having these conversations... just like everything else, the media sensationalizes it

also...

scoutings an inexact science... read moneyball

You're using draft picks to acquire older, exiled vet players that are costing you top dollar. It's a trade-off: you spend a lot more cash in order to ensure you don't draft a bust.

[Sperm Edwards]

You're using draft picks to acquire older, exiled vet players that are costing you top dollar. It's a trade-off: you spend a lot more cash in order to ensure you don't draft a bust.

Atlanta was foolish to pick up Abraham, then.

Ditto NE trading draft picks for Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Ditto StL trading a top-5 pick for Marshall Faulk coming off a lousy season

Ditto SF trading for Steve Young

Ditto NO trading for Jonathan Vilma

Ditto Minnesota trading picks for Jared Allen

Ditto Sooth trading Bergen for Ham

[SMC]

Tom, you make good points, but you tend to ruin them with your CPA, "beancounter" etc. take on Tannenbaum.

He went to college in order to get into sports management. I order to make himself more attractive to front offices, he got an accounting degree but he NEVER worked as an accountant. Then he got a law degree and focused on sports law. Again, his whole academic career in higher education was for the purpose of working in the front office of a professional sports team.

As Jason mentioned, he relies heavily on his scounts and the drafting/FA decisions are made in a team effort. Tanny has stated as such on numerous occassions. He gets recommendations from Rex (first Mangini), Bradway, and Clincskales on who to target in FA or the draft and then he pursues it.

The ultimate problem is the lake of franchise QB. That changes free agency and the draft because once you have that player in place the team and put the role players around him. Right now, the would be role players are filling key positions.

Along those lines, the top of the draft busts/lower production players have really hurt the Jets in light of the fewer draft picks. If the likes of Gholston, Vlad, and Wilson had become, at the very least, Bryan Thomas-esque solid starters the Jets would be in so much better position.

[Barton]

Jets have drafted well the last 10 years when you compare them to the rest of the league.

[jason423]

You're using draft picks to acquire older, exiled vet players that are costing you top dollar. It's a trade-off: you spend a lot more cash in order to ensure you don't draft a bust.

In some cases though (not all) its done to potentially keep certain players from busting or helping them grow into more of a leadership role on the team. It also depends on what the cost is and where the draft slot is. Even though the trade worked out, the move for Jones was one that I would never advocate a team make. You invested far more money in Jones than you would a 2nd and 5th (or whatever the trade was Im too lazy to look it up) and a RB that old 99% of the time would bomb. Jenkins was a risky one too. But Id look at a potential star WR in Edwards and Holmes as good trades, especially because the positions are so difficult to draft.

I think the bottom line is that you always have to have a plan in place when you make these moves. I firmly believe they had a plan in place when they went wild in free agency in 2008. It was a 3 year window designed to peak in 2009. Problem was they strayed when Favre became available since Woody wanted a star and then when he did not want to come back they decided they needed to make another splash by drafting Mark. Now I have no idea if Chad would have stayed healthy in 2009 had he been a Jet, but once Favre bolted the team should have gone out and found the best veteran on the market, whether it was Mark Bulger, Kerry Collins, Jeff Garcia and stayed with the course. As it turned out the team did peak in 2009 and a rookie QB made it so that barely reached the playoffs and then could not get passed the Colts.

The way the team was structured they had to know 2011 and 2012 had potential to be lean years unless they had great drafts, which they did not. But considering how well the team played in 2009 and 2010 I cant fault them for the veteran moves in free agency and trades. Had they drafted better at the top we would have been fine. But when your top picks are Gholston, Keller, Sanchez, Greene, Wilson, and Ducasse you are pretty much doomed to failure.

[RutgersJetFan]

Jenkins was a risky one too.

If not for the freak injury that goes down as the best trade in Jets history. 10 times out of 10 you take that trade when it's for a DT.

[jason423]

If not for the freak injury that goes down as the best trade in Jets history. 10 times out of 10 you take that trade when it's for a DT.

Maybe. I mean he was what 29 or 30 at the time? Most guys at that age dont have a long shelf life at the high end. I guess you expect 2 good years and 1 decent year out of him when you make the trade, though there was already an injury history there. I think when you are going after a DT the best time to do so is first free agent contract otherwise its best to go veteran 1-2 year type contracts. Salary was never an issue due to the uncapped season, but I dont think that was slam dunk move by any means.

[Sperm Edwards]

Maybe. I mean he was what 29 or 30 at the time? Most guys at that age dont have a long shelf life at the high end. I guess you expect 2 good years and 1 decent year out of him when you make the trade, though there was already an injury history there. I think when you are going after a DT the best time to do so is first free agent contract otherwise its best to go veteran 1-2 year type contracts. Salary was never an issue due to the uncapped season, but I dont think that was slam dunk move by any means.

I don't know, man. We were a pure 3-4 defense without a NT and barring injury he was still arguably the best in the NFL. There were more elite QBs in the league than elite NTs. He was 28 when we acquired him and hadn't missed a game since 3 seasons prior.

We just got unlucky on that one but it was a solid trade and franky it was a slam dunk.

[MTJ06]

Atlanta was foolish to pick up Abraham, then.

Ditto NE trading draft picks for Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Ditto StL trading a top-5 pick for Marshall Faulk coming off a lousy season

Ditto SF trading for Steve Young

Ditto NO trading for Jonathan Vilma

Ditto Minnesota trading picks for Jared Allen

Ditto Sooth trading Bergen for Ham

Faulk's last year in INDY he rushed for 1319 yards with 6 TDs, and had 86 receptions for 908 Yds and 4 TDs and he lead the league in yards from scrimmage.

That doesnt seem to lousy

[BroadwayJ667]

When reading the JN article about this year's draft, it got me to start thinking about how, despite the change in GM in 2006, the Jets have really been sporting the same scouting crew for over a decade now, with no significant changes. So I started thinking about it, and what's really interesting is the significant difference you see from position to position in their time here. And I'll warn you all right now, this is so going to be another "TL;DR".

QB - Yeah, do we even need to say it? Not such a great record here, it's been discussed plenty elsewhere, so I think we can just leave it at that. I mean, you could make a case that Bollywood is the best QB they've ever drafted. Yikes.

OT - Thinking about it, with the exception of Brick, who was the #4 overall pick, the Jets haven't drafted an OT worth a damn since Kareem McKenzie back in 2001. Every other one they've had has pretty much been a complete disaster (see: Jones, Adrian and Ducasse, Vladimir).

C/OG - On the flip side, they've done pretty well here. Sure some say Mangold was a "slam dunk", but he wouldn't have lasted as long as he did if the draft was redone today, and he's been great. On top of that, the Jets have gotten some pretty decent to good players with little investment as well, like Moore, Slauson, and Goodwin, plus some solid enough backups. Not that it's been fantastic, but they've gotten a decent return with little investment at the G position.

RB - This is just a confusing one. It's pretty much been one player after another that seems to be bipolar, and can't decide how good or bad they really are. From LaMont Jordan to Leon Washington to Shonn Greene we have seen the Jets get some players who, at times, look like they could be great, and yet when given the chance, look like they can't carry the load at all. Part of that could be that since Jordan, there's been no serious investment in the position, with Greene in the third round being the highest they've gone.

WR - All things considered, this isn't nearly as bad as you would initially think. The Jets have invested next to nothing, in terms of draft picks, in WRs over the past 10 years. Santana Moss is the only time the Jets spent anything higher than a 4th rounder since this group has been in place, and he worked out pretty well. Guys like Cotchery, Stuckey, and even Smith to an extent (although not as much as a regular WR), gave a decent return given the investment. Kerley looks like another who was a good value for where they took him.

TE - Meh. Another position that they have hardly even tried, outside of a slew of crappy undrafted folks and low picks. Only real draft picks have been Baker, who was decidedly mediocre, and Keller, who flashes his moments and at other times not so much. Certainly a disappointment when you see the quality TEs other teams seem to find on a yearly basis in the middle rounds.

DL - This is certainly an interesting one. A position the Jets have addressed a bit more than a lot of others over the time frame, and came up with some very interesting results. Bottom line, they've come up with a bunch of players who actually turned out to be pretty damn good, but not one pass rusher worth a damn in all of them. In the early years that was a bit more understandable, since Abraham and Ellis were already in place, but it's certainly been more of an issue in recent years. Beyond that, it seems like when they've invested big, they've gotten their worst results. DRob and Gholston were both an absolute mess, but guys like Thomas, Pouha, DeVito have all been very good, long term starters for the Jets, and Wilkerson seems to be joining that group.

LB - In recent years, the OLB group fits in with the DL category above, and again, has been a complete failure in the pass rush department. The ILB's have been much more interesting, and very hit or miss. Hobson sucked a$$, Vilma was good for a while but then didn't fit the D, Harris has been great, and Schlegel was an absolute abortion.

CB - They've gotten much better here in recent years. Obviously the Revis pick was huge, and while they went and grabbed the best guy on the board, I still think they get credit for knowing to make the move considering how that draft class was supposed to be so "CB heavy" and there were going to be another 1 or 2 CBs still on the board at their original position with first round grades. Wilson had a rough rookie year, but looked much better this past year. Coleman gave the Jets a few decent years for a 6th rounder. Earlier on though, you had the Jets taking the Justin Miller's and Derrick Strait's of the world, whatever that's worth.

S - Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes each had a couple of years where we really thought they were legit. Outside of that, this position has been an absolute abortion. The next best after them was probably John McGraw. Every time I realize he's still playing in the league it makes me laugh.

ST - Plenty of good kick returners, nothing worth a damn in terms of specialists (despite a 2nd round investment in one).

This group seems to be the absolute definition of "hit and miss", and certain positions they've pretty much done nothing but miss. So I know I've rambled on long enough, but it was just something I found so peculiar when I really started thinking about it on a position basis. I guess it's a good thing that QBs, OTs and pass rushers aren't that important to a team's overall success, huh?

I know T0mShane will go off on a Tanny rant, which is all well and good, but I think the point is that there's some common trends that go back before him (not to say he doesn't deserve plenty of blame as well), and seems to be an issue with the entire college scouting dept. What do you people all think? You know, other than "TL;DR" (and yes, I am well aware I'm going to get plenty of those anyway, especially now that I've said it... douches).

welcome to professional football where you will find that that success rate is about on par with even the best teams

[Sperm Edwards]

Faulk's last year in INDY he rushed for 1319 yards with 6 TDs, and had 86 receptions for 908 Yds and 4 TDs and he lead the league in yards from scrimmage.

That doesnt seem to lousy

Actually I was wrong about 2 things. The top-5 pick was what Indy burned to get Edge. For some reason I was remembering it as them drafting Edge with the pick they got from StL. The Rams traded away their high 2nd and 5th, coming off a crappy 4-12 season. Plus Faulk was in need of a huge veteran contract immediately (he held out after being traded to StL until StL gave him the biggest deal in franchise history).

Still, it's more than we spent far less in draft picks on any of our own "exiled veteran" acquisitions, which is exactly what Faulk was in Indy. Compound that with some injury history of his own and that he was a RB with 5 full seasons of wear already on him.

Judging by history it was a low-percentage trade to result in repeated playoffs (or a SB winner). And it's not like having Marshall Faulk automatically equals Superbowl - or even success - since the Colts had back-to-back 3-win seasons with him. Clearly in hindsight it was an amazing move for the Rams (in addition to stepping in sh*t with Kurt Warner and not whiffing on Torry Holt -- quite a trio to add in 1 offseason) who'd gotten burned so badly by Lawrence Philips not long before.

So they used a high pick on a high-rated rookie RB and missed horribly. 3 years later they traded much-needed, cheap-to-sign picks and made a Tannenbaum-style move for a RB with 5 years of wear (plus injury history) who needs an instant cap-breaking deal, and it works out like few trades in history ever have.

Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you get unlucky. This was lucky. The Jenkins trade, for us, was unlucky. Damn shame too, because when he was healthy for us he was everything we dreamed he'd be and was still just about the best NT in football. Pouha has filled in more than admirably, but he's not in (healthy) Jenkins' league. Not a knock on him; few are.