Jets' College Scouts - Success (or lack thereof) by Position

[Bleedin Green]

When reading the JN article about this year's draft, it got me to start thinking about how, despite the change in GM in 2006, the Jets have really been sporting the same scouting crew for over a decade now, with no significant changes. So I started thinking about it, and what's really interesting is the significant difference you see from position to position in their time here. And I'll warn you all right now, this is so going to be another "TL;DR".

QB - Yeah, do we even need to say it? Not such a great record here, it's been discussed plenty elsewhere, so I think we can just leave it at that. I mean, you could make a case that Bollywood is the best QB they've ever drafted. Yikes.

OT - Thinking about it, with the exception of Brick, who was the #4 overall pick, the Jets haven't drafted an OT worth a damn since Kareem McKenzie back in 2001. Every other one they've had has pretty much been a complete disaster (see: Jones, Adrian and Ducasse, Vladimir).

C/OG - On the flip side, they've done pretty well here. Sure some say Mangold was a "slam dunk", but he wouldn't have lasted as long as he did if the draft was redone today, and he's been great. On top of that, the Jets have gotten some pretty decent to good players with little investment as well, like Moore, Slauson, and Goodwin, plus some solid enough backups. Not that it's been fantastic, but they've gotten a decent return with little investment at the G position.

RB - This is just a confusing one. It's pretty much been one player after another that seems to be bipolar, and can't decide how good or bad they really are. From LaMont Jordan to Leon Washington to Shonn Greene we have seen the Jets get some players who, at times, look like they could be great, and yet when given the chance, look like they can't carry the load at all. Part of that could be that since Jordan, there's been no serious investment in the position, with Greene in the third round being the highest they've gone.

WR - All things considered, this isn't nearly as bad as you would initially think. The Jets have invested next to nothing, in terms of draft picks, in WRs over the past 10 years. Santana Moss is the only time the Jets spent anything higher than a 4th rounder since this group has been in place, and he worked out pretty well. Guys like Cotchery, Stuckey, and even Smith to an extent (although not as much as a regular WR), gave a decent return given the investment. Kerley looks like another who was a good value for where they took him.

TE - Meh. Another position that they have hardly even tried, outside of a slew of crappy undrafted folks and low picks. Only real draft picks have been Baker, who was decidedly mediocre, and Keller, who flashes his moments and at other times not so much. Certainly a disappointment when you see the quality TEs other teams seem to find on a yearly basis in the middle rounds.

DL - This is certainly an interesting one. A position the Jets have addressed a bit more than a lot of others over the time frame, and came up with some very interesting results. Bottom line, they've come up with a bunch of players who actually turned out to be pretty damn good, but not one pass rusher worth a damn in all of them. In the early years that was a bit more understandable, since Abraham and Ellis were already in place, but it's certainly been more of an issue in recent years. Beyond that, it seems like when they've invested big, they've gotten their worst results. DRob and Gholston were both an absolute mess, but guys like Thomas, Pouha, DeVito have all been very good, long term starters for the Jets, and Wilkerson seems to be joining that group.

LB - In recent years, the OLB group fits in with the DL category above, and again, has been a complete failure in the pass rush department. The ILB's have been much more interesting, and very hit or miss. Hobson sucked a$$, Vilma was good for a while but then didn't fit the D, Harris has been great, and Schlegel was an absolute abortion.

CB - They've gotten much better here in recent years. Obviously the Revis pick was huge, and while they went and grabbed the best guy on the board, I still think they get credit for knowing to make the move considering how that draft class was supposed to be so "CB heavy" and there were going to be another 1 or 2 CBs still on the board at their original position with first round grades. Wilson had a rough rookie year, but looked much better this past year. Coleman gave the Jets a few decent years for a 6th rounder. Earlier on though, you had the Jets taking the Justin Miller's and Derrick Strait's of the world, whatever that's worth.

S - Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes each had a couple of years where we really thought they were legit. Outside of that, this position has been an absolute abortion. The next best after them was probably John McGraw. Every time I realize he's still playing in the league it makes me laugh.

ST - Plenty of good kick returners, nothing worth a damn in terms of specialists (despite a 2nd round investment in one).

This group seems to be the absolute definition of "hit and miss", and certain positions they've pretty much done nothing but miss. So I know I've rambled on long enough, but it was just something I found so peculiar when I really started thinking about it on a position basis. I guess it's a good thing that QBs, OTs and pass rushers aren't that important to a team's overall success, huh?

I know T0mShane will go off on a Tanny rant, which is all well and good, but I think the point is that there's some common trends that go back before him (not to say he doesn't deserve plenty of blame as well), and seems to be an issue with the entire college scouting dept. What do you people all think? You know, other than "TL;DR" (and yes, I am well aware I'm going to get plenty of those anyway, especially now that I've said it... douches).

[Bleedin Green]

When reading the JN article about this year's draft, it got me to start thinking about how, despite the change in GM in 2006, the Jets have really been sporting the same scouting crew for over a decade now, with no significant changes. So I started thinking about it, and what's really interesting is the significant difference you see from position to position in their time here. And I'll warn you all right now, this is so going to be another "TL;DR".

QB - Yeah, do we even need to say it? Not such a great record here, it's been discussed plenty elsewhere, so I think we can just leave it at that. I mean, you could make a case that Bollywood is the best QB they've ever drafted. Yikes.

OT - Thinking about it, with the exception of Brick, who was the #4 overall pick, the Jets haven't drafted an OT worth a damn since Kareem McKenzie back in 2001. Every other one they've had has pretty much been a complete disaster (see: Jones, Adrian and Ducasse, Vladimir).

C/OG - On the flip side, they've done pretty well here. Sure some say Mangold was a "slam dunk", but he wouldn't have lasted as long as he did if the draft was redone today, and he's been great. On top of that, the Jets have gotten some pretty decent to good players with little investment as well, like Moore, Slauson, and Goodwin, plus some solid enough backups. Not that it's been fantastic, but they've gotten a decent return with little investment at the G position.

RB - This is just a confusing one. It's pretty much been one player after another that seems to be bipolar, and can't decide how good or bad they really are. From LaMont Jordan to Leon Washington to Shonn Greene we have seen the Jets get some players who, at times, look like they could be great, and yet when given the chance, look like they can't carry the load at all. Part of that could be that since Jordan, there's been no serious investment in the position, with Greene in the third round being the highest they've gone.

WR - All things considered, this isn't nearly as bad as you would initially think. The Jets have invested next to nothing, in terms of draft picks, in WRs over the past 10 years. Santana Moss is the only time the Jets spent anything higher than a 4th rounder since this group has been in place, and he worked out pretty well. Guys like Cotchery, Stuckey, and even Smith to an extent (although not as much as a regular WR), gave a decent return given the investment. Kerley looks like another who was a good value for where they took him.

TE - Meh. Another position that they have hardly even tried, outside of a slew of crappy undrafted folks and low picks. Only real draft picks have been Baker, who was decidedly mediocre, and Keller, who flashes his moments and at other times not so much. Certainly a disappointment when you see the quality TEs other teams seem to find on a yearly basis in the middle rounds.

DL - This is certainly an interesting one. A position the Jets have addressed a bit more than a lot of others over the time frame, and came up with some very interesting results. Bottom line, they've come up with a bunch of players who actually turned out to be pretty damn good, but not one pass rusher worth a damn in all of them. In the early years that was a bit more understandable, since Abraham and Ellis were already in place, but it's certainly been more of an issue in recent years. Beyond that, it seems like when they've invested big, they've gotten their worst results. DRob and Gholston were both an absolute mess, but guys like Thomas, Pouha, DeVito have all been very good, long term starters for the Jets, and Wilkerson seems to be joining that group.

LB - In recent years, the OLB group fits in with the DL category above, and again, has been a complete failure in the pass rush department. The ILB's have been much more interesting, and very hit or miss. Hobson sucked a$$, Vilma was good for a while but then didn't fit the D, Harris has been great, and Schlegel was an absolute abortion.

CB - They've gotten much better here in recent years. Obviously the Revis pick was huge, and while they went and grabbed the best guy on the board, I still think they get credit for knowing to make the move considering how that draft class was supposed to be so "CB heavy" and there were going to be another 1 or 2 CBs still on the board at their original position with first round grades. Wilson had a rough rookie year, but looked much better this past year. Coleman gave the Jets a few decent years for a 6th rounder. Earlier on though, you had the Jets taking the Justin Miller's and Derrick Strait's of the world, whatever that's worth.

S - Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes each had a couple of years where we really thought they were legit. Outside of that, this position has been an absolute abortion. The next best after them was probably John McGraw. Every time I realize he's still playing in the league it makes me laugh.

ST - Plenty of good kick returners, nothing worth a damn in terms of specialists (despite a 2nd round investment in one).

This group seems to be the absolute definition of "hit and miss", and certain positions they've pretty much done nothing but miss. So I know I've rambled on long enough, but it was just something I found so peculiar when I really started thinking about it on a position basis. I guess it's a good thing that QBs, OTs and pass rushers aren't that important to a team's overall success, huh?

I know T0mShane will go off on a Tanny rant, which is all well and good, but I think the point is that there's some common trends that go back before him (not to say he doesn't deserve plenty of blame as well), and seems to be an issue with the entire college scouting dept. What do you people all think? You know, other than "TL;DR" (and yes, I am well aware I'm going to get plenty of those anyway, especially now that I've said it... douches).

tl;dr

ha... **** you all.

[ZachEY]

Nice write-up.

In thinking about the Jets scouting, my overall problem has been their lack of "finds". That is to say, when they needed a LT, they took the consensus best one in the draft, and it worked out. When they needed a C, same deal. CB, same deal.

It doesn't feel like we've found any great contributors later in the draft. We've found ok players, but we've never really hit a home-run, and very often, outside of the 1st 2 rounds, guys aren't making the roster.

[will]

This goes to the point raised in the other draft strategy thread: Lately they haven't drafted enough players. "You can't pick six solid players if your only drafting four."

Another depressing thread

[The Crusher]

tl;dr

ha... **** you all.

Little bit rude after the OP put all that time in.

[Bleedin Green]

Nice write-up.

In thinking about the Jets scouting, my overall problem has been their lack of "finds". That is to say, when they needed a LT, they took the consensus best one in the draft, and it worked out. When they needed a C, same deal. CB, same deal.

It doesn't feel like we've found any great contributors later in the draft. We've found ok players, but we've never really hit a home-run, and very often, outside of the 1st 2 rounds, guys aren't making the roster.

That's a really good point. Of the guys who have made it, there's a bunch who you really have to like as players, but that comes back to more of value than them being anything really "special". I'm a huge DeVito fan and think he's vastly underrated, but the guy still isn't the type who's going to make those big game-changing plays, and he's probably the best they've got out of those late pick / undrafted types in quite some time. The thing is when I first started writing this, I knew it wasn't great, but I didn't think it was as bad as it really was, and the further I got in, the more depressing it got.

[snow_monkey]

It's clear that we've been hit and miss in the draft. But I agree with will's post; the biggest problem is how we've traded picks away like they grew on trees. We have no talented youngsters pushing the vets, and no cover for injuries.

[Bleedin Green]

Little bit rude after the OP put all that time in.

Thanks for sticking up for me Crush, I appreciate it. That guy's a douche.

(PS: This thread is what happens when you have an hour for lunch and after eating in 1/4 of that time, you end up bored with nothing to do).

[jason423]

Nice writeup. I track the Jets picks every year, compare their round success with NFL positional success for the prior 10 or so years in the draft to come up with predictions for the players and its pretty similar to what you did here.

The strange thing to me has been lack of production from Kyle Wilson. I dont like Bryan Thomas but he did start for years. Im not crazy about Keller but at least he is a starting player. Mangold, Revis, Vilma, Moss....these are all good players. Yet Wilson is an abomination at a position that normally produces for at least 5 years in the league. I just looked over my old article and had Wilsons upside as that of an Antonine Winfield. Hopefully t was just a blip.

The bad high picks dont stun me. Robertson was a total flop. Brick is a good player but at a cant miss position. Gholston sucked. Sanchez may have punched his ticket out of town. There is a growing track record here that is scary.

Second round has inexplicably been a disaster. My writeup at the time they selected Ducasse was: Two D’s. An F. A couple of C’s. And David Harris. For whatever reason the scouting here seems to do a poor job at identifying prospects at the chosen positions, which does not bode well for Ducasse.

Still I assumed by not boding well it meant average/below average since most guards who carry a second round grade do ok (start for over a majority of the career last for awhile) and even tackles do fine. Basically everyone gets a chance to start by year 2. Vlad is one of like 8 guys in the last 10 years to be a mega bust. The Jets might need to upgrade whatever they are doing with some of the scouting and how they are valuing guys in that round.

[ZachEY]

That's a really good point. Of the guys who have made it, there's a bunch who you really have to like as players, but that comes back to more of value than them being anything really "special". I'm a huge DeVito fan and think he's vastly underrated, but the guy still isn't the type who's going to make those big game-changing plays, and he's probably the best they've got out of those late pick / undrafted types in quite some time. The thing is when I first started writing this, I knew it wasn't great, but I didn't think it was as bad as it really was, and the further I got in, the more depressing it got.

This is why I'm not a tannenbaum guy. I know you don't do baseball, but I think of him like Omar Minaya. He had the ok from the owner to spend big money for the mets, and he made some obvious moves. The mets got a step from the WS, but never made it, and then they had no farm system, a few older busts, and are just a tremendous mess.

Tannenbaum to me, hasn't made any brilliant moves. He's made obvious ones. And most of them are hurting us now. He's run the team like I might, with flashy moves. But there's a reason I'm a fan sitting at home and not the GM.

[SMC]

Good write up, BG for what I skimmed.

Nice write-up.

In thinking about the Jets scouting, my overall problem has been their lack of "finds". That is to say, when they needed a LT, they took the consensus best one in the draft, and it worked out. When they needed a C, same deal. CB, same deal.

It doesn't feel like we've found any great contributors later in the draft. We've found ok players, but we've never really hit a home-run, and very often, outside of the 1st 2 rounds, guys aren't making the roster.

Good point. Probably the best "find" they've had in the last 10 years have been Leon Washington and Kerry Rhodes, but neither panned out. Having "finds" are good, but it still comes back to the QB, unfortunately. A top QB makes the "finds" look that much better because those finds just have to make plays rather than win games for you.

[Bleedin Green]

This goes to the point raised in the other draft strategy thread: Lately they haven't drafted enough players. "You can't pick six solid players if your only drafting four."

Another depressing thread

It's clear that we've been hit and miss in the draft. But I agree with will's post; the biggest problem is how we've traded picks away like they grew on trees. We have no talented youngsters pushing the vets, and no cover for injuries.

Definitely agree with you guys on this, and it was actually the reference to the OT's in that original post you guys are referring to that really started me going on this. Nobody is going to hit with every pick, but when you're only making a handful of picks a year, issues like a clear deficiency with scouting OTs only compounds itself, because you're putting all of your faith into that one pick you do make at the position working out, and when it doesn't, you're screwed (e.g., Vlad). If you're loaded up on picks, you can really have your a$$ saved by a crappy high round pick when it turns out some second/third day player at that position impresses and can fill that spot for you. It's a matter of being able to hedge your bets.

[ZachEY]

Good point. Probably the best "find" they've had in the last 10 years have been Leon Washington and Kerry Rhodes, but neither panned out. Having "finds" are good, but it still comes back to the QB, unfortunately. A top QB makes the "finds" look that much better because those finds just have to make plays rather than win games for you.

True, but that's offense. Same kind of goes for defense too.

[SMC]

True, but that's offense. Same kind of goes for defense too.

Yeah, hitting on the QB works for the defense too. I agree with your Omar comparison. It fits and it's unfortunate. And if you think about it, Wilkerson also fits into the top heavy mode. Another obvious pick that will turn out well, but what about the rest?

Kerley might be the only mid-round hope.

[Jetscode1]

Nice article...agree with your summary...these guys epitomize "hit or miss"...the inconsitency in the draft always is causal to the point in the other article...the Jets had only 23 picks the last five years when the legue average was 38...it seems we always trade picks to adress a need whether that's to bring in guy to start (Jenkins, Cromartie, Holmes) or to trade up and get "our guy" (Revis, Keller, Sanchez, or Greene). They all appear logical at the time but over the long term it just created holes in the depth.

The churing of the coaches hasn't helped either as each guy looked for "his type" players. The Jets seemed to hit on a few good one then fall back to disastrous the next couple of years. I can't recall the last better than average starter we got in the third/fourth round or later...not counting the special teams.

[Bleedin Green]

This is why I'm not a tannenbaum guy. I know you don't do baseball, but I think of him like Omar Minaya. He had the ok from the owner to spend big money for the mets, and he made some obvious moves. The mets got a step from the WS, but never made it, and then they had no farm system, a few older busts, and are just a tremendous mess.

Tannenbaum to me, hasn't made any brilliant moves. He's made obvious ones. And most of them are hurting us now. He's run the team like I might, with flashy moves. But there's a reason I'm a fan sitting at home and not the GM.

Yeah, I hear you, and as more time has gone by I lean further in the direction as you, and your last line kind of really sums it up. The truth is though, with two completely different approaches with Bradway and Tannenbaum, yet very similar results (at least in terms of the draft), I think it comes down to the fact that whenever the Jets do decide to move on from Tanny, a good chunk of this college scouting team should be leaving with him.

[Sperm Edwards]

When reading the JN article about this year's draft, it got me to start thinking about how, despite the change in GM in 2006, the Jets have really been sporting the same scouting crew for over a decade now, with no significant changes. So I started thinking about it, and what's really interesting is the significant difference you see from position to position in their time here. And I'll warn you all right now, this is so going to be another "TL;DR".

QB - Yeah, do we even need to say it? Not such a great record here, it's been discussed plenty elsewhere, so I think we can just leave it at that. I mean, you could make a case that Bollywood is the best QB they've ever drafted. Yikes.

OT - Thinking about it, with the exception of Brick, who was the #4 overall pick, the Jets haven't drafted an OT worth a damn since Kareem McKenzie back in 2001. Every other one they've had has pretty much been a complete disaster (see: Jones, Adrian and Ducasse, Vladimir).

C/OG - On the flip side, they've done pretty well here. Sure some say Mangold was a "slam dunk", but he wouldn't have lasted as long as he did if the draft was redone today, and he's been great. On top of that, the Jets have gotten some pretty decent to good players with little investment as well, like Moore, Slauson, and Goodwin, plus some solid enough backups. Not that it's been fantastic, but they've gotten a decent return with little investment at the G position.

RB - This is just a confusing one. It's pretty much been one player after another that seems to be bipolar, and can't decide how good or bad they really are. From LaMont Jordan to Leon Washington to Shonn Greene we have seen the Jets get some players who, at times, look like they could be great, and yet when given the chance, look like they can't carry the load at all. Part of that could be that since Jordan, there's been no serious investment in the position, with Greene in the third round being the highest they've gone.

WR - All things considered, this isn't nearly as bad as you would initially think. The Jets have invested next to nothing, in terms of draft picks, in WRs over the past 10 years. Santana Moss is the only time the Jets spent anything higher than a 4th rounder since this group has been in place, and he worked out pretty well. Guys like Cotchery, Stuckey, and even Smith to an extent (although not as much as a regular WR), gave a decent return given the investment. Kerley looks like another who was a good value for where they took him.

TE - Meh. Another position that they have hardly even tried, outside of a slew of crappy undrafted folks and low picks. Only real draft picks have been Baker, who was decidedly mediocre, and Keller, who flashes his moments and at other times not so much. Certainly a disappointment when you see the quality TEs other teams seem to find on a yearly basis in the middle rounds.

DL - This is certainly an interesting one. A position the Jets have addressed a bit more than a lot of others over the time frame, and came up with some very interesting results. Bottom line, they've come up with a bunch of players who actually turned out to be pretty damn good, but not one pass rusher worth a damn in all of them. In the early years that was a bit more understandable, since Abraham and Ellis were already in place, but it's certainly been more of an issue in recent years. Beyond that, it seems like when they've invested big, they've gotten their worst results. DRob and Gholston were both an absolute mess, but guys like Thomas, Pouha, DeVito have all been very good, long term starters for the Jets, and Wilkerson seems to be joining that group.

LB - In recent years, the OLB group fits in with the DL category above, and again, has been a complete failure in the pass rush department. The ILB's have been much more interesting, and very hit or miss. Hobson sucked a$$, Vilma was good for a while but then didn't fit the D, Harris has been great, and Schlegel was an absolute abortion.

CB - They've gotten much better here in recent years. Obviously the Revis pick was huge, and while they went and grabbed the best guy on the board, I still think they get credit for knowing to make the move considering how that draft class was supposed to be so "CB heavy" and there were going to be another 1 or 2 CBs still on the board at their original position with first round grades. Wilson had a rough rookie year, but looked much better this past year. Coleman gave the Jets a few decent years for a 6th rounder. Earlier on though, you had the Jets taking the Justin Miller's and Derrick Strait's of the world, whatever that's worth.

S - Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes each had a couple of years where we really thought they were legit. Outside of that, this position has been an absolute abortion. The next best after them was probably John McGraw. Every time I realize he's still playing in the league it makes me laugh.

ST - Plenty of good kick returners, nothing worth a damn in terms of specialists (despite a 2nd round investment in one).

This group seems to be the absolute definition of "hit and miss", and certain positions they've pretty much done nothing but miss. So I know I've rambled on long enough, but it was just something I found so peculiar when I really started thinking about it on a position basis. I guess it's a good thing that QBs, OTs and pass rushers aren't that important to a team's overall success, huh?

I know T0mShane will go off on a Tanny rant, which is all well and good, but I think the point is that there's some common trends that go back before him (not to say he doesn't deserve plenty of blame as well), and seems to be an issue with the entire college scouting dept. What do you people all think? You know, other than "TL;DR" (and yes, I am well aware I'm going to get plenty of those anyway, especially now that I've said it... douches).

QB: lousy drafting and other than a little excitement for 2/3 of a season of Favre, not much better in veterans acquired.

OT: Brick #4 and a $30M contract for Woody is pretty heavy investing. Where they're lacking is how they've fared when investing cheaply. Not all good (or even great) OT's require a high draft pick or big FA contract to acquire.

C/G: Lots of investment here, and a good amount of it's worked out. From re-signing Mawae to drafting Mangold at C to Moore and Faneca and Slauson at G. Dumped Faneca before he became the embarrassment he was out in Arizona.

RB: disagree about the level of investment. Jones cost us the value of a #3 plus a pretty significant contract. Greene 3 picks. McKnight 2 picks. A pick each for Leon and Powell and Jordan if you want to go back that far. What would be the purpose of drafting a RB so high when you're heavily invested (and productive) with Jones/Leon and then Jones/Greene? Other than kicker, this is the least "groom into the position" position on the field.

WR: They've spent plenty. They've just spent poorly for the most part. Paid through the nose in trade and dollars for Coles, Edwards, Holmes, and overpaid for Chrebet's last contract. Paid about right for Plaxico in today's market. Best value they've had in 10 years - both in terms of where he was drafted and then how much they re-signed him for after that - was Cotchery.

TE: Haven't tried? Becht was a #1, then Baker a #3, then Keller a #1. That's more than most teams spend. The problem is how good they became, not how high they were drafted. How many TE's has New Orleans drafted higher than round 5 for the past dozen years? One (Graham was taken at the bottom of round 3 in 2010). The difference is, like many things, quality over quantity. Graham is awesome and the Jets' TE's are/were not.

I don't feel like doing the rest right now.

[Bleedin Green]

Nice writeup. I track the Jets picks every year, compare their round success with NFL positional success for the prior 10 or so years in the draft to come up with predictions for the players and its pretty similar to what you did here.

The strange thing to me has been lack of production from Kyle Wilson. I dont like Bryan Thomas but he did start for years. Im not crazy about Keller but at least he is a starting player. Mangold, Revis, Vilma, Moss....these are all good players. Yet Wilson is an abomination at a position that normally produces for at least 5 years in the league. I just looked over my old article and had Wilsons upside as that of an Antonine Winfield. Hopefully t was just a blip.

The bad high picks dont stun me. Robertson was a total flop. Brick is a good player but at a cant miss position. Gholston sucked. Sanchez may have punched his ticket out of town. There is a growing track record here that is scary.

Second round has inexplicably been a disaster. My writeup at the time they selected Ducasse was: Two D’s. An F. A couple of C’s. And David Harris. For whatever reason the scouting here seems to do a poor job at identifying prospects at the chosen positions, which does not bode well for Ducasse.

Still I assumed by not boding well it meant average/below average since most guards who carry a second round grade do ok (start for over a majority of the career last for awhile) and even tackles do fine. Basically everyone gets a chance to start by year 2. Vlad is one of like 8 guys in the last 10 years to be a mega bust. The Jets might need to upgrade whatever they are doing with some of the scouting and how they are valuing guys in that round.

Yeah, it was definitely very interesting once taking a deeper look at it, and to see the positions where they've struggled most is concerning. Now granted, QB and pass rusher are two of the most difficult positions in the league to fill, but they are also two of the most important and this Jets scouting group hasn't come close to addressing either one in over 10 years of drafting. What's possibly more worrisome is the abomination that has been the usually much easier to address OT position, outside of Brick who, as you said, was about as much of a can't-miss as you can get.

[Bleedin Green]

QB: lousy drafting and other than a little excitement for 2/3 of a season of Favre, not much better in veterans acquired.

OT: Brick #4 and a $30M contract for Woody is pretty heavy investing. Where they're lacking is how they've fared when investing cheaply. Not all good (or even great) OT's require a high draft pick or big FA contract to acquire.

C/G: Lots of investment here, and a good amount of it's worked out. From re-signing Mawae to drafting Mangold at C to Moore and Faneca and Slauson at G. Dumped Faneca before he became the embarrassment he was out in Arizona.

RB: disagree about the level of investment. Jones cost us the value of a #3 plus a pretty significant contract. Greene 3 picks. McKnight 2 picks. A pick each for Leon and Powell and Jordan if you want to go back that far. What would be the purpose of drafting a RB so high when you're heavily invested (and productive) with Jones/Leon and then Jones/Greene? Other than kicker, this is the least "groom into the position" position on the field.

WR: They've spent plenty. They've just spent poorly for the most part. Paid through the nose in trade and dollars for Coles, Edwards, Holmes, and overpaid for Chrebet's last contract. Paid about right for Plaxico in today's market. Best value they've had in 10 years - both in terms of where he was drafted and then how much they re-signed him for after that - was Cotchery.

TE: Haven't tried? Becht was a #1, then Baker a #3, then Keller a #1. That's more than most teams spend. The problem is how good they became, not how high they were drafted. How many TE's has New Orleans drafted higher than round 5 for the past dozen years? One (Graham was taken at the bottom of round 3 in 2010). The difference is, like many things, quality over quantity. Graham is awesome and the Jets' TE's are/were not.

I don't feel like doing the rest right now.

I actually agree with a lot of what you said, but the reason I didn't mention a lot of what you did, I was really just looking strictly at the draft. Even the trades for draft picks I didn't mention simply because I was thinking about more from a scouting perspective. The issue of the Jets FA spending is a whole other problem, but I think that it's been, in part, only made worse by the Jets complete failure to ever competently address certain positions through the draft.

[Jetscode1]

The grading sheet from Charlie Casserly is telling...would have to crunch the numbers but it would only tell us what we already know.

The percentages are based on a study of draft picks over a ten year period and published by Charley Casserly of NFL Network.

1st Round Picks - Should Start by end of first year and has a 75% chance of ever become a NFL starter.

2nd Round Picks - Should Start second season and has a 50% chance of ever become a NFL starter.

3rd Round Picks - Should Start third season and has a 30% chance of ever become a NFL starter

4th - 5th Round Picks - Should Start third season and has a 25% chance of ever become a NFL starter

6th - 7th Round Picks - Should Start third season and has a 9% chance of ever become a NFL starter

Here's hoping Woody is reading this...

[Jetscode1]

I actually agree with a lot of what you said, but the reason I didn't mention a lot of what you did, I was really just looking strictly at the draft. Even the trades for draft picks I didn't mention simply because I was thinking about more from a scouting perspective. The issue of the Jets FA spending is a whole other problem, but I think that it's been, in part, only made worse by the Jets complete failure to ever competently address certain positions through the draft.

Have to think the poor drafting and lack of patience cause the depletion of picks...eigther way the scouting department is not hitting the NFL averages with the picks they do use.

[T0mShane]

Great post, BG.

I won't belabor people with my view on Tannenbaum again. He acquired the job in dubious fashion and should have been out three years ago with Mangini. Roster attrition was inevitable, and the smaller cap is going to expose him as a fraud, sooner than later.

But, you're right. how Clinkscales picks up a paycheck without using a gun and ski mask is an absolute mystery.

[sg3]

yes, Shane, Tannenbaum's drafts have been a disaster --- Ferguson and Mangold and a few decent others in 06, Revis and Harris in 07, Keller in 08, Sanchez, Greene and Slaussen in 09, Wilson, McKnight and Connor in 10 and Wilkerson in 11

all of them busts --- you're right, he should have been fired three years ago

[T0mShane]

yes, Shane, Tannenbaum's drafts have been a disaster --- Ferguson and Mangold and a few decent others in 06, Revis and Harris in 07, Keller in 08, Sanchez, Greene and Slaussen in 09, Wilson, McKnight and Connor in 10 and Wilkerson in 11

all of them busts --- you're right, he should have been fired three years ago

Dude.

[Bleedin Green]

Great post, BG.

I won't belabor people with my view on Tannenbaum again. He acquired the job in dubious fashion and should have been out three years ago with Mangini. Roster attrition was inevitable, and the smaller cap is going to expose him as a fraud, sooner than later.

But, you're right. how Clinkscales picks up a paycheck without using a gun and ski mask is an absolute mystery.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not exonerating Tanny in the least, it's just kind of crazy to think how long this group has been together despite the kind of tendencies that have developed over that time period, regardless of the change in GM. It's not like you can exactly say there's much of anything similar about the way Bradway and Tanny each do business, so that there's been such commonalities in their drafting (with the exception of Tanny's endless pick-trading) says something.

[JoeC36]

yes, Shane, Tannenbaum's drafts have been a disaster --- Ferguson and Mangold and a few decent others in 06, Revis and Harris in 07, Keller in 08, Sanchez, Greene and Slaussen in 09, Wilson, McKnight and Connor in 10 and Wilkerson in 11

all of them busts --- you're right, he should have been fired three years ago

his name is T0mShane

[T0mShane]

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not exonerating Tanny in the least, it's just kind of crazy to think how long this group has been together despite the kind of tendencies that have developed over that time period, regardless of the change in GM. It's not like you can exactly say there's much of anything similar about the way Bradway and Tanny each do business, so that there's been such commonalities in their drafting (with the exception of Tanny's endless pick-trading) says something.

Absolutely. Didn't mean to sound like I was disagreeing with you at all. It's a great point--when you think about it, the franchise's personnel has been handled by the same two guys for over a decade, all they did was switch seats.

I think Aten put it best when he said that if all Tannenbaum does is massage the cap, what did you really add by making him the GM?

[T0mShane]

his name is T0mShane

:gang sign:

[JoeC36]

:gang sign:

i got yo back

[jason423]

I think Aten put it best when he said that if all Tannenbaum does is massage the cap, what did you really add by making him the GM?

Not to be on the Tannenbaum is the greatest bandwagon, which Ive never been on and still cant figure out how so many Jet fans claimed he was the greatest ever when we were in the middle of a 5 win season, but that assumption about Tannenbaum is not correct. Teams are promoting cap guys to GM positions because they understand the financial ramifications of certain moves and longer term planning. In the past you would have a guy like Parcells with Curtis or Bradway with Chad more or less having final say and then going to Mr. T and say make it work. Im sure he was in on most of those calls but his job was to make the numbers work. You look at the D-Rob contract that was done by Bradway and its lightyears different than any deal signed after by Tannenbaum. Having the finance guy be the main input changes things around a great deal in terms of negotiating. Maybe they overvalue some talent but the actual number dancing is really not done by Tannenbaum anymore. His responsibilities are far greater than that.

He certainly has a whole scouting staff he works with and I do thik the Jets use a very team oriented approach, but Bradway used to be in charge of the whole operation, not just advanced scouting. His free agent signings were horrible during the Herm era. The Jets have done much better from 2008 onward. Having a big checkbook works, but they built a team into an AFC Title contender primarily via free agency, trades, and 2 drafts. Its a big improvement over 2001-2005.

[Sperm Edwards]

I actually agree with a lot of what you said, but the reason I didn't mention a lot of what you did, I was really just looking strictly at the draft. Even the trades for draft picks I didn't mention simply because I was thinking about more from a scouting perspective. The issue of the Jets FA spending is a whole other problem, but I think that it's been, in part, only made worse by the Jets complete failure to ever competently address certain positions through the draft.

In their view they are using draft picks to acquire players. Just not rookie players. Some worked out, some didn't.

[Bugg]

This is why I'm not a tannenbaum guy. I know you don't do baseball, but I think of him like Omar Minaya. He had the ok from the owner to spend big money for the mets, and he made some obvious moves. The mets got a step from the WS, but never made it, and then they had no farm system, a few older busts, and are just a tremendous mess.

Tannenbaum to me, hasn't made any brilliant moves. He's made obvious ones. And most of them are hurting us now. He's run the team like I might, with flashy moves. But there's a reason I'm a fan sitting at home and not the GM.

No matter how much football Tannebaum may watch he is still basically a cap/contract guy. Which means he is probably getting a lot of inpute form Clinkscale and Bradway and who ever his head caoch has been. he is not and has never been a scout. He seems a little to hellbent to take chances and trade up with the groovy value chart. Now contracts and the cap are important but someone with a scouting abckground should be making these decisions. And how does he synthesize Ryan's needs against what ever Clinckscale and Bradwaya re telling him? It would be better to have someone like Floyd Reese with the Giants. The Jets made Tannebaum the GM because he was going to be their version of Pioli. But since Pioli went to KC, doesn't seem he's done any better without the inpute of Bellicheat and the guy under the bleachers, Ernie Adams.

Further on the one occasion he had to get the jets' player in camp he dawdled and probably cost'em 2 months of Revis in 2010 due to injury.We seem to keep making the same mistakes over and over.

[bLguerriero1]

you cant have it both ways.. you complain about trading picks now when they were used to get guys like cromartie and holmes who helped us get in the playoffs and then we miss the playoffs and you want to start a lynch mob....

if sanchez plays a smidge better we make the playoffs and aren't having these conversations... just like everything else, the media sensationalizes it

also...

scoutings an inexact science... read moneyball

[T0mShane]

Not to be on the Tannenbaum is the greatest bandwagon, which Ive never been on and still cant figure out how so many Jet fans claimed he was the greatest ever when we were in the middle of a 5 win season, but that assumption about Tannenbaum is not correct. Teams are promoting cap guys to GM positions because they understand the financial ramifications of certain moves and longer term planning. In the past you would have a guy like Parcells with Curtis or Bradway with Chad more or less having final say and then going to Mr. T and say make it work. Im sure he was in on most of those calls but his job was to make the numbers work. You look at the D-Rob contract that was done by Bradway and its lightyears different than any deal signed after by Tannenbaum. Having the finance guy be the main input changes things around a great deal in terms of negotiating. Maybe they overvalue some talent but the actual number dancing is really not done by Tannenbaum anymore. His responsibilities are far greater than that.

He certainly has a whole scouting staff he works with and I do thik the Jets use a very team oriented approach, but Bradway used to be in charge of the whole operation, not just advanced scouting. His free agent signings were horrible during the Herm era. The Jets have done much better from 2008 onward. Having a big checkbook works, but they built a team into an AFC Title contender primarily via free agency, trades, and 2 drafts. Its a big improvement over 2001-2005.

All good points. My main bone of contention with Tannenbaum as a GM is that he prioritizes financial gamesmanship in acquiring players at the expense of draft-and-develop philosophies preferred by perennial contenders like the Steelers, Giants and (prior to this year) the Eagles. Because Tannenbaum is so good at manipulating contracts, he naturally leans in that direction when filling out the roster, which is both expensive and affords a smaller window of time to maximize the return on those older, expensive players. And when those older players slow down, there's no young talent ready to step in, and the wheels start turning again where he has to go find another vet to plug in.

I have this (probably naive) perception that the great GM is a guy who started out driving around the Midwest scouting DIII programs for $14k per year, climbing the ladder by consistently sending plus-value players to his team's training camp. When he finally gets to the GM chair, he's given the final say on who they acquire. The cap guy comes into play when that GM finds a player whom he thinks fits the program and needs him signed.. I hear what you're saying that the logistics of managing rosters has changed and that financial matters weigh almost as much as talent evaluation. Still, I'm not sure that exactly justifies handing the whole ball of wax to a CPA. The perfect GM right now is a guy versed in both worlds, who understands the cap but also spent time evaluating the punter for Chattanooga Community College at some point in his life. I want a guy who can watch tape and tell you that Jake Long is a better player than Vernon Gholston. I just believe in my heart that Tannenbaum (and Bradway) will pick Vernon and his fancy Combine numbers ten times out of ten.

[Sperm Edwards]

you cant have it both ways.. you complain about trading picks now when they were used to get guys like cromartie and holmes who helped us get in the playoffs and then we miss the playoffs and you want to start a lynch mob....

if sanchez plays a smidge better we make the playoffs and aren't having these conversations... just like everything else, the media sensationalizes it

also...

scoutings an inexact science... read moneyball

I agree we should definitely draft QB's with a better OPS than Sanchez & Gholston had.