the truth about John "the cap guy" Idzik

[Lizard King]

"John Idzik begins his sixth season with the Seahawks after joining the club on February 16, 2007. With Seattle, Idzik oversees player negotiations, the team’s compliance with the NFL salary cap, player personnel transactions, all football operations budgets, staff and team contracts, team travel and most aspects of the day-to-day football operations while also remaining active in player evaluations. In addition, he serves as the club’s primary liaison to the NFL Office and represents the club at League meetings.

Prior to joining the Seahawks, Idzik spent three seasons as Senior Director of Football Operations for the Arizona Cardinals, helping to build an eventual NFC champion. Idzik entered the NFL in 1993 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He spent 11 years with the Buccaneers, first as a Pro Personnel Assistant and then was elevated to Director of Football Administration in 1996 and Assistant General Manager in 2001."

 

This is copied from the Seahawks profile of him.  I bolded and underlined the point Mehta. Myers and others chose to ignore.

 

The truth has no place in professional Jets journalism, unfortunately.

[slats]

Wouldn't trading a 4th round pick, essentially be "drafting" a rb? 

 

Drafting a RB that you have had the opportunity to evaluate as a pro?

No.

The Jets traded a fourth round pick for a player who only managed to appear in 12 (out of a possible 32) games over the last two seasons, and gave him a signing bonus that was roughly the same amount an entire four year contract for the fourth round pick would've been. While not crippling, it's both expensive and risky, and I don't like it.

[Lizard King]

No.

The Jets traded a fourth round pick for a player who only managed to appear in 12 (out of a possible 32) games over the last two seasons, and gave him a signing bonus that was roughly the same amount an entire four year contract for the fourth round pick would've been. While not crippling, it's both expensive and risky, and I don't like it.

I think when Ivory is healthy and rushes for 1,000 yards, and catches a few hundred more, this year or next, and puts up double digit touchdowns, we will be looking beyond these concerns. We talk about Ivory on this board like he is Shonn Greene. He is NOT Shonn Greene. The guy has speed, moves well and was RB4 on a backfield behind a 4,500 yards/year QB that will be in the hall of fame. I don't think we get him much cheaper than we have him now if we tried next year in FA, and I'd like to know who in the draft was better than Chris Ivory at the 4th round? Sure maybe we could've saved a couple bucks but sometimes you get what you pay for. We've gotten in this habit around here of bashing management as soon as possible, and I think with the limited amount of time at the job, and a scouting unit that wasn't even his, Idzik has done fine and deserves our patience. We haven't seen one snap of real football yet.

[Scott Dierking]

No.

The Jets traded a fourth round pick for a player who only managed to appear in 12 (out of a possible 32) games over the last two seasons, and gave him a signing bonus that was roughly the same amount an entire four year contract for the fourth round pick would've been. While not crippling, it's both expensive and risky, and I don't like it.

The answer has to be MAYBE.

 

No one knows how the trade will turn out and how Ivory will play THIS YEAR and next.

 

By your logic, Rex Ryan has only won 14 out of his last 32 games, why on Earth did we keep him?

[slats]

I think when Ivory is healthy and rushes for 1,000 yards, and catches a few hundred more, this year or next, and puts up double digit touchdowns, we will be looking beyond these concerns. We talk about Ivory on this board like he is Shonn Greene. He is NOT Shonn Greene. The guy has speed, moves well and was RB4 on a backfield behind a 4,500 yards/year QB that will be in the hall of fame. I don't think we get him much cheaper than we have him now if we tried next year in FA, and I'd like to know who in the draft was better than Chris Ivory at the 4th round? Sure maybe we could've saved a couple bucks but sometimes you get what you pay for. We've gotten in this habit around here of bashing management as soon as possible, and I think with the limited amount of time at the job, and a scouting unit that wasn't even his, Idzik has done fine and deserves our patience. We haven't seen one snap of real football yet.

I hope you're right, but I have serious reservations. His health is a major concern. I'm also not sure how the production he does have, playing behind Drew Brees as the change of pace back in a dome, translates to being the main guy behind Sanchez (Smith?) in the Jersey swamp.

[Integrity28]

The answer has to be MAYBE.

 

No one knows how the trade will turn out and how Ivory will play THIS YEAR and next.

 

By your logic, Rex Ryan has only won 14 out of his last 32 games, why on Earth did we keep him?

 

Honestly, the answer is no.

 

Drafting a rookie and trading a draft pick for a veteran are just not the same thing, not in any way really.

 

You can make the argument that maybe the results you get from a rookie will be the same as what you get from a veteran, or one could be better than the other. But the method of acquisition is in every way different.

[Scott Dierking]

Honestly, the answer is no.

 

Drafting a rookie and trading a draft pick for a veteran are just not the same thing, not in any way really.

 

You can make the argument that maybe the results you get from a rookie will be the same as what you get from a veteran, or one could be better than the other. But the method of acquisition is in every way different.

It is a calculated move,  based on expectation of results compared to value given up. 

 

While the mechanism is different, the calculation is the same. Risk (value given up) vs Reward (expected results).

[JoeKlecko]

I think when Ivory is healthy and rushes for 1,000 yards, and catches a few hundred more, this year or next, and puts up double digit touchdowns, we will be looking beyond these concerns. We talk about Ivory on this board like he is Shonn Greene. He is NOT Shonn Greene. The guy has speed, moves well and was RB4 on a backfield behind a 4,500 yards/year QB that will be in the hall of fame. I don't think we get him much cheaper than we have him now if we tried next year in FA, and I'd like to know who in the draft was better than Chris Ivory at the 4th round? Sure maybe we could've saved a couple bucks but sometimes you get what you pay for. We've gotten in this habit around here of bashing management as soon as possible, and I think with the limited amount of time at the job, and a scouting unit that wasn't even his, Idzik has done fine and deserves our patience. We haven't seen one snap of real football yet.

 

Good post.  I basically agree with everything you said, but do have a few minor quibbles.  IMO the question with Ivory is IF he gets healthy, not "when."  I agree that he definitely has the potential to put up the kind of numbers you stated, and hopefully he will.  Unfortunately, his history says that he won't stay healthy.  Some players are cursed that way.  They're always banged up.  There are those players that for whatever reason stay banged up on one team, then go to another team and stay healthy.  Hopefully, Ivory will be the latter kind of player and stay healthy for us.

 

There were some backs I liked a lot in the draft that the Jets could have had.  They could have taken Jonathan Franklin in the 4th round had they had their 4th round pick.  Kenyon Barner went in the 6th round to the Panthers.  I really liked both of those backs.  I don't think that either is as big or powerful as Ivory, but I'd bet that if Barner isn't as fast as Ivory (or faster), it's close.  I don't think Franklin is that far behind them either.

 

Your point of getting what you pay for is a good point, but RB is the easiest position in the NFL for a rookie to come in, start and play well.  Based on what some others have said, Ivory's injury history extends back to college.  I could be wrong, but am not aware of Franklin or Barner having the same problems in college.  While Ivory may be more talented and versatile, if he can't stay on the field, then it doesn't matter how much talent he has or how much better he may be than a RB like Frankln or Barner.

 

There's always the question of whether it's better to go with a proven vet or an untested/unproven rookie, especially if their contracts would be roughly the same or the vet's a little higher.  The thing is, with a proven vet, when his contract value is that close to a rookie's, he's really not that good, or is older and coming off a major injury or has had an injury history.  There's also little question of what his upside is.  Often, there is little upside, whereas with a rookie, their upside may be sky high.  Having fresh legs can be big in the NFL, as well as teams not having seen/played against that RB before.  I think it often comes down to what the HC/OC is more comfortable with.  In the Jets' case, Rex seems to be more comfortable with vets, and I would think that Idzik, hoping that Geno would be the starting QB, would feel more comfortable with a veteran RB who should be more adept at reading Ds and picking up blitzers.  I think that's the main reason Idzik made the trade for Ivory rather than signing Goodson and drafting a rookie.

[Integrity28]

It is a calculated move,  based on expectation of results compared to value given up. 

 

While the mechanism is different, the calculation is the same. Risk (value given up) vs Reward (expected results).

 

Meh, you are blurring the lines now. 

 

Your initial question was answered. 

[lamont_jordan_rules]

Good post.

 

There were some backs I liked a lot in the draft that the Jets could have had.  They could have taken Jonathan Franklin in the 4th round had they had their 4th round pick.  Kenyon Barner went in the 6th round to the Panthers.  I really liked both of those backs.  I don't think that either is as big or powerful as Ivory, but I'd bet that if Barner isn't as fast as Ivory (or faster), it's close.  I don't think Franklin is that far behind them either.

 

 

 I would think that Idzik, hoping that Geno would be the starting QB, would feel more comfortable with a veteran RB who should be more adept at reading Ds and picking up blitzers.  I think that's the main reason Idzik made the trade for Ivory rather than signing Goodson and drafting a rookie.

Good post yourself

[Scott Dierking]

Meh, you are blurring the lines now. 

 

Your initial question was answered. 

The lines are always blurred, because we don't know the motivation or thought behind the move.

 

What you would have to believe, from idzik's standpoint, is that he saw greater value in Ivory, than any player on his board t that point, cost of pick value and contract included.

 

Now, whether that turns to be true, will depend on Ivory's production. And, we will never know what to compare that to, because the Jets will obviously never execute that 4th round pick.

[Integrity28]

The lines are always blurred, because we don't know the motivation or thought behind the move.

 

What you would have to believe, from idzik's standpoint, is that he saw greater value in Ivory, than any player on his board t that point, cost of pick value and contract included.

 

Now, whether that turns to be true, will depend on Ivory's production. And, we will never know what to compare that to, because the Jets will obviously never execute that 4th round pick.

 

You asked a black/white question - is trading a 4th rounder for a veteran the same as picking a 4th rounder. The answer is no.

 

Everything you've followed up with is hypothetical, the answer is no.

[Lizard King]

Good post.  I basically agree with everything you said, but do have a few minor quibbles.  IMO the question with Ivory is IF he gets healthy, not "when."  I agree that he definitely has the potential to put up the kind of numbers you stated, and hopefully he will.  Unfortunately, his history says that he won't stay healthy.  Some players are cursed that way.  They're always banged up.  There are those players that for whatever reason stay banged up on one team, then go to another team and stay healthy.  Hopefully, Ivory will be the latter kind of player and stay healthy for us.

 

There were some backs I liked a lot in the draft that the Jets could have had.  They could have taken Jonathan Franklin in the 4th round had they had their 4th round pick.  Kenyon Barner went in the 6th round to the Panthers.  I really liked both of those backs.  I don't think that either is as big or powerful as Ivory, but I'd bet that if Barner isn't as fast as Ivory (or faster), it's close.  I don't think Franklin is that far behind them either.

 

Your point of getting what you pay for is a good point, but RB is the easiest position in the NFL for a rookie to come in, start and play well.  Based on what some others have said, Ivory's injury history extends back to college.  I could be wrong, but am not aware of Franklin or Barner having the same problems in college.  While Ivory may be more talented and versatile, if he can't stay on the field, then it doesn't matter how much talent he has or how much better he may be than a RB like Frankln or Barner.

 

There's always the question of whether it's better to go with a proven vet or an untested/unproven rookie, especially if their contracts would be roughly the same or the vet's a little higher.  The thing is, with a proven vet, when his contract value is that close to a rookie's, he's really not that good, or is older and coming off a major injury or has had an injury history.  There's also little question of what his upside is.  Often, there is little upside, whereas with a rookie, their upside may be sky high.  Having fresh legs can be big in the NFL, as well as teams not having seen/played against that RB before.  I think it often comes down to what the HC/OC is more comfortable with.  In the Jets' case, Rex seems to be more comfortable with vets, and I would think that Idzik, hoping that Geno would be the starting QB, would feel more comfortable with a veteran RB who should be more adept at reading Ds and picking up blitzers.  I think that's the main reason Idzik made the trade for Ivory rather than signing Goodson and drafting a rookie.

 

Much better post than mine.  I don't know if this idea that everyone's been pushing is true, where RB's just come in and pick up the slack on their rookie year. I don't think we saw that with any of the backs we drafted since Thomas Jones and LT left, so I'd be interested to know why people feel this way. Maybe Billal Powell is our guy, he looks like he has potential, but even then he is not nearly as fast as Chris Ivory.  I don't know if Rex is just inclined to take proven RB's, or if we don't have a scouting department that would know offensive talent if it could pre-hand them their Canton ballot on draft day. My useless gut instinct is that Idzik had been following Ivory for awhile and thought maybe this was going to be one of his immediate impact moves (and may still be.) But like you said, do we want a guy who's half a step slower? Half a step does actually matter in my opinion, time is everything trying to hit holes and clear defenders in almost open space. If this kid works out, he definitely will be worth it. Good point about staying healthy, but hammies heal up, and get stronger with regular use, something Ivory was not getting.

[Scott Dierking]

You asked a black/white question - is trading a 4th rounder for a veteran the same as picking a 4th rounder. The answer is no.

 

Everything you've followed up with is hypothetical, the answer is no.

The way that you read the original premise was blurred

[Integrity28]

The way that you read the original premise was blurred

 

It was a yes/no question. Obviously, my bad.

[jason423]

How could that have happened?  I'm not doubting you, just curious and more than a little fascinated.  I haven't seen anyone else make that claim, but that doesn't mean anything, because the hack beat writers don't have the intelligence or creativity to try to research or figure out something like that on their own.  I KNOW that you understand the cap and are great with it.

 

http://nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part1.html

http://nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part2.html

http://nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part3.html

[JoeKlecko]

Much better post than mine.  I don't know if this idea that everyone's been pushing is true, where RB's just come in and pick up the slack on their rookie year. I don't think we saw that with any of the backs we drafted since Thomas Jones and LT left, so I'd be interested to know why people feel this way. Maybe Billal Powell is our guy, he looks like he has potential, but even then he is not nearly as fast as Chris Ivory.  I don't know if Rex is just inclined to take proven RB's, or if we don't have a scouting department that would know offensive talent if it could pre-hand them their Canton ballot on draft day. My useless gut instinct is that Idzik had been following Ivory for awhile and thought maybe this was going to be one of his immediate impact moves (and may still be.) But like you said, do we want a guy who's half a step slower? Half a step does actually matter in my opinion, time is everything trying to hit holes and clear defenders in almost open space. If this kid works out, he definitely will be worth it. Good point about staying healthy, but hammies heal up, and get stronger with regular use, something Ivory was not getting.

 

I can't remember where I saw/heard that idea first, but have since seen it many times by sportswriters, fans, and maybe even some GMs or NFL HCs, I honestly don't remember.  I think the idea is that all a rookie RB has to do is learn the offense, learn to read blitzes, and if necessary work on his blocking technique.  It's theoretically less complex, but I don't know if that's really true, although a fair amount of rookies do come into the NFL, start and are very good immediately.  They don't seem to take the same year (or 2-3) that some other players do to develop.

 

I  do think Rex may be inclined towards veterans in general, but you may have a good point about our Scouting Dept. Who knows?  It's been hard to tell whose fault the bad picks were and who should get the credit for the good picks the team has made over the last 5-10 years.

 

I think your gut is probably right about Ivory.  He has impact player potential, is versatile, and seems to have it all (except health or luck).  You're right about hammies, although they can be troublesome and linger.  Let's hope his is healed and he'll have no recurrence of hammy or any other injuries.  It would be great if he could come in and play all 16 games this year, regardless of how effective he winds up being.  In that way, the Jets will know whether they should plan on keeping him as the starter next year or will look to upgrade the position in FA or the draft.

[JoeKlecko]

http://nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part1.html

http://nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part2.html

http://nyjetscap.com/2013_Articles/jets-salary-cap-part3.html

 

Jason,

 

Great work.  Thanks.

 

My head is spinning a bit after reading that.  LOL  You definitely have a great understanding and knack for the cap and $s.  Wish I did!  I agree with most everything you said, with the exception of Sanchez.  I think with him the Jets should have done what I think Idizik did is to just take the pain this year and do nothing to increase the pain next season.  I think Idzik saw this as a rebuilding year and didn't see the need to create all the cap space that you did for this season.  I think he did many, if not most of the things you suggested, except he of course traded Revis rather than Cromartie (which I agreed with).  Is that accurate?  I'm not a cap guy, so I didn't keep up with all the moves the Jets made, but most of what you suggest seems to be what the Jets did, at least with the same players.

 

Thanks again!

[Matt39]

Ivory is the biggest wildcard on this team. If he can stay healthy and run like he did as a Saint- this team can be competitive. (Assuming we have a typical Rex defense)

In terms of upside-Ivory had more than any other back past the third round of the draft. There are runs he's made in the league only a few guys are capable of. Having a guy capable of scoring from anywhere on the field is something this offense hasn't had since Leon.

[JoeKlecko]

Ivory is the biggest wildcard on this team. If he can stay healthy and run like he did as a Saint- this team can be competitive. (Assuming we have a typical Rex defense)

In terms of upside-Ivory had more than any other back past the third round of the draft. There are runs he's made in the league only a few guys are capable of. Having a guy capable of scoring from anywhere on the field is something this offense hasn't had since Leon.

 

TRUTH

[Bleedin Green]

While I understand a lot of what has been said about Idzik in all of this, the other item worth pointing out is, at the time of Idzik's hire, when the beat writers first went running rampant with their "bean counter" narrative, there were reports immediately coming out of Seattle regarding Idzik's continually growing involvement in their personnel department over the past few years.  I won't argue that the guy has some sort of extensive scouting background, but the point is simply that his time in this league hasn't been nearly as devoid of real football experience as our loveable local reporting team would have us all believe.  The guy is certainly still a big question mark, but that doesn't make him Mike Tannenbaum 2.0.

[NCJETSFAN]

It's quite simple if Milner is hurt all year and geno isn't the real deal the pressure will be ramped up on him !! Won't matter if he's a cap guy or a perssonell guy . All that matters if he does the job