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CAA runs this city...2013-14 New York Knicks thread


Matt39

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Time for the Knicks to Start Hardaway? Not So Fast.

By Chris Herring

MEMPHIS—Knicks swingman Tim Hardaway Jr. has enjoyed a highlight-filled first half of the season. The first-year guard out of Michigan leads all NBA rookies in three-point percentage, and he electrified a national audience on Saturday with a 36-point outburst in the All-Star Weekend’s Rising Stars Challenge. The performance solidified what most fans already knew about Hardaway: The 21-year-old can score in bunches and has nearly limitless range on his jump shot.

Now, with 30 games left in the regular season, the Knicks 2.5 games out of the final Eastern Conference playoff slot, and third-year guard Iman Shumpert failing to make a consistent impact on offense, has the time come for Hardaway to join the starting lineup?

The answer is no, although many fans would surely disagree. Hardaway has seemingly done more to space the court for Carmelo Anthony, since he has been more accurate from long-range than Shumpert this season. And there is no comparison when it comes to converting fast-break opportunities: Hardaway is scoring on a team-high 59% of his chances, while Shumpert has scored on just 38% of his.

Plus, Hardaway scores more easily than any other Knick guard. His 15.7 points per 36 minutes dwarf Shumpert’s 9.3 points per 36, and even outpace J.R. Smith’s 14.5.

But despite all that, giving Hardaway starting minutes would almost certainly hurt the team more that help it—at least right now. Simply put, there is no reason to shake up the team’s current starting lineup of Anthony, Shumpert, Raymond Felton, Pablo Prigioni and Tyson Chandler.

Even with Shumpert pressing badly on offense, the Knicks’ starting five has outscored opponents by 20.5 points per 100 possessions this season, the most in the NBA for any five-man lineup that’s played at least 100 minutes together. The Knicks run into problems when they break up the starting crew as the game progresses.

On the defensive end, Hardaway is a liability. Whatever offensive skills he flaunts, opposing shooting guards are outscoring him by 5.3 points per 48 minutes on the season. His problem is a general lack of court awareness and basic inexperience. In the Knicks’ overtime loss to Sacramento before the All-Star break, the Kings ran screens for Jimmer Fredette when Hardaway was guarding him, knowing Hardaway wouldn’t be able to get around the picks.

There’s data to prove it: According to Synergy Sports, Hardaway has run into the screener a whopping 46% of the time when defending pick-and-rolls. As such, the Knicks surrender 5.8 more points per 100 plays defensively with Hardaway on the court, per NBA.com.

Once an opponent’s shot is in the air, Hardaway isn’t even half the rebounder Shumpert is. At 6-foot-5, Shumpert is an inch shorter than Hardaway, but his 9.8% rebound rate (the percentage of missed shots he grabs while on the floor) is more than double Hardaway’s. In fact, Hardaway’s team-worst 4.1% rebound rate is the league’s lowest among players 6-foot-6 or taller, according to Basketball Reference.

All told, the Knicks grab 76.8% of opponent misses when Hardaway is on the bench, and 73.8% when he’s on the floor. If that doesn’t sound like much, it drops the Knicks from being the NBA’s third-best defensive-rebounding team to the 20th best.

So, defensively and on the boards, Hardaway isn’t helping the Knicks. What about offensively? Believe it or not, he’s not doing them much good there, either.

The Knicks average 105.1 points per 100 plays with Hardaway on the bench, up from 102 when he’s playing. And the team’s other three wing starters—Felton, Prigioni and Anthony—have shot worse when sharing the court with him. Felton’s and Prigioni’s shooting percentages fall by 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively, while Anthony’s falls 5.8%. In fact, among all of Anthony’s 14 teammates, his shooting percentage falls most when he plays with Hardaway.

Some of that stems from Hardaway’s unwillingness to share the ball—only 10% of his passes put teammates in position to score, according to SportVU tracking technology. But with Hardaway sporting the best shooting percentage of any Knicks guard, it isn’t completely clear why Anthony and the Knicks’ offense have been worse with him on the court.

Whatever the case, until Hardaway learns how to contribute more than just his scoring, the Knicks should cut his minutes rather than increase them if they hope to make the playoffs.

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I'm wondering if from Melo's perspective it would be better to not opt out and hit the open market in 2015 where they'll be more FA signing opportunities.

I don't see Anthony going anywhere that's not a big media market, so that limits his potential destinations. One of those teams, the Lakers, will have the cap space to add him his offseason, with everyone not named Kobe coming off the books. Chicago is in play, but Melo isn't exactly a fit for their coach or style of play. I can't think of a team that he'd be dying to play for that will have the cap space in 2015, but not next year.

The positive for the Knicks is he does split after this season is that they will be an absolutely putrid team and will have their own #1 in 2015, which should be a reasonably high lottery selection. The unfortunate thing is that this years draft is light years better than it will be in 2015... watch Denver end up with a top-5 pick from the lottery-bound Knicks and end up with a Wiggins/Parker/Randle/Exum/Embiid, while the Knicks lose the guy they received in exchange for that pick (and a whole bunch more).

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Go on, SMC. Call JohnnyHector a "hater."

Let's not let your team's current place in the standings fool you... They're in far worse long-term shape that the Knicks and won't even sniff an ECF before rebooting in 2017.

Maybe Prokhorov can use some of the money he funneled from the Sochi games to invest in a bionic foot for Brooke Shields this offseason.

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Let's not let your team's current place in the standings fool you... They're in far worse long-term shape that the Knicks and won't even sniff an ECF before rebooting in 2017.

Maybe Prokhorov can use some of the money he funneled from the Sochi games to invest in a bionic foot for Brooke Shields this offseason.

Hater #Durantula

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Nets signing Jason Collins just now. Good PR move. I guess getting torched by Jermaine O'Neal last night turned Prokhorov into a true progressive.

Anyone else find it curious that less than a week after Michael Sam comes out that a guy who has been unsigned for a season and a half is suddenly employed so that he can become the first openly gay athlete in a major US sports league?

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Anyone else find it curious that less than a week after Michael Sam comes out that a guy who has been unsigned for a season and a half is suddenly employed so that he can become the first openly gay athlete in a major US sports league?

 

Where else are you going to get 5 fouls in 10 minutes? You can't just find that type of production anywhere.

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