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Analyzing Key Cap Numbers


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Analyzing key (read: large) cap numbers

January, 13, 2014

JAN 13

10:45

AM ET

By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com

 

The league year begins in two months (March 11, to be exact), so teams have plenty of time to get their salary-cap house in order. In past years, the New York Jets had to slash salary to get under the cap, but not this year.

 

Right now, the Jets are projected to be about $20 million under the cap. The preliminary projection for the cap is $126.3 million and the Jets have $106 million committed to it, according to overthecap.com. By the time they get done dumping overpaid veterans, they could have close to $40 million in space.

 

Here's a look at some of the Jets' key cap figures for 2014:

 

Antonio Cromartie, cornerback, $14.98 million:

 

Cromartie is entering the final year of a four-year, $32 million contract. In retrospect, it was a sound investment by the Jets, one of the better big deals doled out by former general manager Mike Tannenbaum. That said, there's virtually no way Cromartie will play 2014 under the existing contract. It calls for a $5 million roster bonus in March, and the Jets don't want to pay that much for a 30-year-old corner (almost) who recently acknowledged he may need hip surgery. He'd account for 12 percent of the team's cap under the current deal.

 

Cromartie says he wants to retire with the Jets. To stick around for '14, he can agree to significantly reduce the $9.5 million he's due to make in total compensation. If not, he probably will be released with the chance to return. Free agency would allow him to shop around and establish his market value, weighing it against the Jets' interest in bringing him back. Despite a sub-par season, Cromartie still is a good No. 2 corner and the Jets don't have anyone on the roster capable of starting opposite Dee Milliner. It makes sense for both sides to find a compromise and strike a new deal. If they cut him, they'd save $9.5 million in cap room, but a good chunk of that would go toward signing his replacement.

 

Mark Sanchez, quarterback, $13.1 million

 

Sanchez still has three years left on his contract, thanks to the ill-advised extension he received in March 2012, but there is no security remaining in the deal -- meaning no guaranteed money. As a result, they can release their former franchise quarterback without wrecking the cap. They'd get hit with a $4.8 million charge in "dead" money, but the overall savings would be $8.3 million. That probably will be the end result, and it will happen before a $2 million roster bonus is due in March.

 

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the two sides get to that point. Conceivably, the Jets could throw Sanchez a lifeline -- after all, they need an experienced quarterback to play behind or compete with Geno Smith -- but they'd want him to take a massive, pride-crushing pay cut. Sanchez says he wants to stay with the Jets, but at what price? He probably could land a one-year deal in the $3 million neighborhood on the open market, assuming his surgically repaired throwing shoulder checks out.

 

D'Brickashaw Ferguson, left tackle, $11.7 million

 

He's not going anywhere. In fact, it would cost them more not to have Ferguson on the roster than to have him -- a $13 million hit in "dead" money. After restructuring a couple of times, he's probably un-cuttable until 2016, the next-to-last year of the contract. Fortunately for the Jets, Ferguson still is a productive, if not elite player.

 

Santonio Holmes, wide receiver, $10.75 million

 

The guaranteed money from the ridiculous five-year, $45 million contract he signed in 2011 has disappeared, meaning Holmes soon will disappear as well. Holmes took a $3 million pay cut last offseason, and he said he'd be willing to take another (how magnanimous), but he probably won't get that chance.

 

The Jets will save $8.25 million in cap space by dumping him before a $1 million roster bonus is due in March, and they won't let that opportunity pass by. Based on the past two seasons (43 receptions, 17 games missed), Holmes is a $1 million-to-$2 million-a-year receiver.

 

Nick Mangold, center, $7.2 million

 

This is a large cap charge for a center, but it's managable. Mangold remains a Pro Bowl-caliber player, so there's no reason to think about his ouster. But the contract may have to be addressed next year, when the cap number balloons to $10.4 million. He's signed through 2017.

 

David Harris, linebacker, $7.0 million

 

He'd be in trouble if he had the same cap number as 2013 ($13 million), but his charge drops to a managable $7 million, the final year of a four-year, $36 million contract. The Jets overpaid for Harris -- he's not an elite linebacker -- but he bounced back after a disappointing 2012, justifying the final year of the deal. He still has tremendous value to the defense; in fact, he missed only two snaps in 2013.

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Not to mention I would love to get Josh McCown as both a mentor to Geno and an insurance policy (for a couple years)

Or Michael Vick (who will come much cheaper and already knows the offense)

 

1.  F*ck "mentors". 

 

2.  McCown is trash.  Think he'll go from looking great on a small sample size while throwing to Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett and handing off to Matt Forte then come here and continue to light up the league?  Look at his career's body of work and come back to me.

 

3.  If having a mentor is important to you, look no further than Michael Vick!  He'll show Geno ALL the great crime rings in NYC!

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Spend the money on Big Mo Wilk...

 

This.  By far the largest % of our available cap dollars needs to be directed to our best defensive player.  We're not 1 or 2 players away from a title and we're not buying ourselves a Super Bowl.  Free Agent signings need to be shrewd pickups rather than big splashes.  Maybe we'll find ourselves an Antwan Barnes on offense.

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Not to mention I would love to get Josh McCown as both a mentor to Geno and an insurance policy (for a couple years)

Or Michael Vick (who will come much cheaper and already knows the offense)

An up and coming CONCERT PIANIST needs a mentor, A YOUNG PAINTER needs a mentor. We need a QB that can play. If the guy we got now needs a mentor, then he needs to be shown the door. We gave Sanchez a "mentor" for 4 years, and he turned into a total misfit.

 

Get a QB that doesnt need anyone holding his hand, and one that can at least be in the 70's in QBR.

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Agree - no more mentors! Garrard isn't helping anyone and he doesn't even suit up. #wastedrosterspot.

 

I don't even do Twitter, so I don't know if I did that right?

 

The best mentor is one who can start the season OR step in and play when the rookie fails.  Getting benched is the best lesson of all.

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The best mentor is one who can start the season OR step in and play when the rookie fails.  Getting benched is the best lesson of all.

Here's my idea of a mentor. GREEN BAY, they have a first ballot HOF starting, and a first ballot HOF sitting on the bench watching and learning. Thats mentoring,

 

What we had was SANCHEZ (all-time QB flop), with BRUNELL ( 1 step from a wheelchair) sipping gatorade through a straw.

 

And now SMITH (worst QBR in the league) with GARRARD (3 years from his last throw), getting paid to heel a crippled knee..

 

Wow, you cant make this crap up.

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Here's my idea of a mentor. GREEN BAY, they have a first ballot HOF starting, and a first ballot HOF sitting on the bench watching and learning. Thats mentoring,

 

What we had was SANCHEZ (all-time QB flop), with BRUNELL ( 1 step from a wheelchair) sipping gatorade through a straw.

 

And now SMITH (worst QBR in the league) with GARRARD (3 years from his last throw), getting paid to heel a crippled knee..

 

Wow, you cant make this crap up.

 

There's no way Favre was a great mentor for Rodgers.  That was a dude that only cared about # 1 his entire career.  It was probably good for Rodgers to watch a HOF QB in action, but I highly doubt Favre's words were a major reason Rodgers turned into a great QB himself.

 

Bottom line, get good QB's on your team any way you can.  Don't sign QB's that operate only as coaches and take up a roster spot to do it.

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There's no way Favre was a great mentor for Rodgers.  That was a dude that only cared about # 1 his entire career.  It was probably good for Rodgers to watch a HOF QB in action, but I highly doubt Favre's words were a major reason Rodgers turned into a great QB himself.

 

Bottom line, get good QB's on your team any way you can.  Don't sign QB's that operate only as coaches and take up a roster spot to do it.

Look, I know they hated each other, BUT Rodgers just being in all the meetings with the offensive coaches and Favre, listening to the calls through the head set and watching Favre audibilize. Watching Favre in practice, etc. all HAD to help Rodgers.

 

Was Rodgers going to be a great QB anyway? DEFINITELY, but having a first ballot HOF to watch everyday sure beats watching a guy fill out applications for nursing homes.

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This.  By far the largest % of our available cap dollars needs to be directed to our best defensive player.  We're not 1 or 2 players away from a title and we're not buying ourselves a Super Bowl.  Free Agent signings need to be shrewd pickups rather than big splashes.  Maybe we'll find ourselves an Antwan Barnes on offense.

 

Why does not being 1 or 2 players away mean that you shouldn't make a big splash in free agency?

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Look, I know they hated each other, BUT Rodgers just being in all the meetings with the offensive coaches and Favre, listening to the calls through the head set and watching Favre audibilize. Watching Favre in practice, etc. all HAD to help Rodgers.

 

Was Rodgers going to be a great QB anyway? DEFINITELY, but having a first ballot HOF to watch everyday sure beats watching a guy fill out applications for nursing homes.

 

If we trade our entire draft for Johnny Manziel then I guarantee you he will post one of the 5 worst QBRs in the league.

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Why does not being 1 or 2 players away mean that you shouldn't make a big splash in free agency?

 

Because bad contracts got us into trouble in the first place.  Free agency is meant to fill needs under the Idzik regime.  Well, we have lot's of needs.  This means we need to spread our cap dollars around.

 

Now, if Jimmy Graham somehow came available, I might change my mind a bit there.  But he's probably not, and we'd have to overpay to bring him here.

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To be honest, I don't see Idzik going on this massive shopping spree.  I could see him sign one or two of the top names (Maclin/Tate at WR, Graham if by some miracle the Saints let him test the market), and then fill holes with the second tier free agents.

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Fun fact: Sanchez, Holmes, Brick, and Mangold account for 71.7% of the Jets' offensive salary cap in 2014.

Holmes is gone, that's something I imagine everyone can agree on. Brick is overpaid, but not by a lot, and probably won't be touched.

The controversy begins with the other two guys. Mangold is grossly overpaid. Yes, great player, nice to have a real life viking on the team, etc., but he's WAY overpaid for a center. It may not be addressed due to other needs and a lack of leverage this year, but it's something that will absolutely have to be dealt with in 2015.

Then there's Sanchez. The free agent QB market is crap. Maybe a player or two could come free via cuts (Kyle Orton? Matt Schaub?), but otherwise it's pretty dismal. Jet fans should begin to brace themselves for the possible return of Sanchez in the $3-4M range. Despite all the negatives, it still might be the best fit for the team and the player.

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Because bad contracts got us into trouble in the first place.  Free agency is meant to fill needs under the Idzik regime.  Well, we have lot's of needs.  This means we need to spread our cap dollars around.

 

Now, if Jimmy Graham somehow came available, I might change my mind a bit there.  But he's probably not, and we'd have to overpay to bring him here.

 

Big contracts are not always bad contracts. I get that you're not saying that, but it's something to bear in mind.

 

Ultimately, I guess it depends on how one defines 'splashy.' I don't want Idzik to go on an unrestrained shopping spree that sets us back for years if it doesn't work. But at the same time, they have the resources needed to upgrade the offense, there's really no excuse for them not to sign 1 of the better wide receivers and/or tight ends. If they enter this season with a rookie (no matter what round) and Jeremy Kerley as their top 2 targets then that is a huge failure IMO.

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The controversy begins with the other two guys. Mangold is grossly overpaid. Yes, great player, nice to have a real life viking on the team, etc., but he's WAY overpaid for a center. It may not be addressed due to other needs and a lack of leverage this year, but it's something that will absolutely have to be dealt with in 2015.

 

I said this in another thread and nearly got crucified.

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Big contracts are not always bad contracts. I get that you're not saying that, but it's something to bear in mind.

 

Ultimately, I guess it depends on how one defines 'splashy.' I don't want Idzik to go on an unrestrained shopping spree that sets us back for years if it doesn't work. But at the same time, they have the resources needed to upgrade the offense, there's really no excuse for them not to sign 1 of the better wide receivers and/or tight ends. If they enter this season with a rookie (no matter what round) and Jeremy Kerley as their top 2 targets then that is a huge failure IMO.

 

I don't think Idzik will fail to bring in a free agent WR.  Personally I'd love to get two.  Golden Tate, then try to snag Danario Alexander on a relatively inexpensive deal.  If somehow he can figure out a way to stay healthy, he's got WR1 potential.  No one else on the market really has that kind of upside without having to pay WR1 money.

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If we trade our entire draft for Johnny Manziel then I guarantee you he will post one of the 5 worst QBRs in the league.

And if we dont, and Mel is right, then he will put up rookie QBR's like we have never seen before.

 

We shall see.

 

However what we do know, is that our current QB posted the WORST. Right?

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I said this in another thread and nearly got crucified.

The beginning of the end for Tannenbaum was the year he decided that he could and would resign all of Revis, Brick, Mangold, and Harris. Revis was the only guy he didn't overpay, Mangold and Harris got stupid deals. The team is still paying for them. Could've let those two guys go, gotten a couple high comp picks and plenty of cap space to field a team that actually had a little depth.

The Sanchez and Holmes deals only compounded the problems.

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The beginning of the end for Tannenbaum was the year he decided that he could and would resign all of Revis, Brick, Mangold, and Harris. Revis was the only guy he didn't overpay, Mangold and Harris got stupid deals. The team is still paying for them. Could've let those two guys go, gotten a couple high comp picks and plenty of cap space to field a team that actually had a little depth.

The Sanchez and Holmes deals only compounded the problems.

One of the best things that BELLICHICK does. Except for basically BRADY, if you want to try and break his bank with some ridiculous contract, you find yourself following guys like Seymour, Samuel, Welker etc. out his revolving door.

 

And, he very rarely unloads a guy who just lights it up when they leave. Welker is thriving with Brady now, but he just plugs in Edelman or some other guy we have never heard of. He is a master at that.

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