The NFL Scouting Combine: Buyer Beware

[jetfuel]

I just posted this article on the NY Jets Green Blog if anyone is interested

The NFL Scouting Combine: Buyer Beware

With the first group of college players beginning to file into Indianapolis today, the annual pigskin prospect pageant is once again upon us. Monstrous men will be walking around in their underwear while men in suits will be scrutinizing just about every ounce of their being. The livestock will be on display as they weigh in for the farmers, who in two months will select their new crop and hope that the harvest is prosperous.

Now comes the magical time when certain players miraculously shoot up and down the draft board due to their physical and mental evaluations as well as their results in a variety of activities designed to measure potential performance capabilities. Some guys run the 40-yard dash at such a rapid rate that the drool can practically be seen running down the chins of scouts on hand throughout Lucas Oil Stadium.

Although some of the numbers accumulated can be telling for certain aspects of the game, we all know how much these statistics mean without the matching play on the next level to back them up. It seems like every year there is at least one participant that mesmerizes the scouts and team executives with their accumulated figures only to make them regret their fascination in the years that follow.

I am sure that fans of the New York Jets begrudgingly remember the name Vernon Gholston, the workout warrior who hypnotized NFL scouts and executives with his brute strength, terrific speed, towering physique and impressive vertical leap. His phenomenal performance at the scouting combine convinced the Jets to take him sixth in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. We all know how that turned out as the perceived perfect pass rusher was unceremoniously let go after three years in which he produced zero sacks and barely even saw the field.

Mr. Gholston is not the first to fool the experts with his colossal combine performance and he will certainly not be the last. More experienced fans can recall another combine superstar who was selected with the 2^nd pick in the 1989 draft. As an offensive tackle, Tony Mandarich flashed a 4.65 in the 40, soared towards a 30” vertical and 10’3” broad jump, and pounded out 39 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press. He went on to become one of the biggest busts in draft history.

Another name that will live on in infamy due to his amazing combine performance and subsequent failure in the NFL, is former Philadelphia Eagle, Mike Mamula. After the Eagles traded their first-round draft pick (12th overall), and two second-round selections to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they chose the Boston College standout with the 7^th pick in the 1995 draft.

Mamula’s astronomical numbers at the combine catapulted him to the top of draft boards. Running a 4.58 in the 40, with 28 reps of 225 pounds on the bench, a 38” vertical and a 49-of-50 on the Wonderlic Test, was enough to make General Manager Harry Gamble bet on Mamula’s success at the next level. Well, he lost the wager as Mamula never really lived up to the hype in his 6-year career, although he did eclipse the level of performance displayed by Gholston and Mandarich, which a bar set rather low.

There are many more names that could be added to the list of scouting combine superstars that went on to vanish into obscurity, but teams continue to get fooled, year after year, by the chiseled physiques displayed and lofty numbers produced by players in Indianapolis. As the immortal former President, George W. Bush, once said, “There's an old saying in Tennessee ... I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee ... that says, fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me ... you can't get fooled again.”

Despite the massive amount of peak performers at the combine that have disappeared when it came time for the real games to be played, there have also been several players who turned out to be the real deal. Some of the best performances in the history of the combine came from names such as J.J. Watt, Deion Sanders and Calvin Johnson, all of which are among the best to ever play their positions. There was also Bo Jackson, who could arguably have turned out to be one of the greatest running backs in NFL history if not for his devastating hip injury in 1991, with his legendary hand-timed 4.12 in the 40.

Over the years, there have also been numerous players whose stock has fallen as a result of poor performances or opting out of the combine, who have proceeded to have enormously successful NFL careers. Jerry Rice, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin, Joe Haden and Elvis Dumervil are all players who did not show well at the annual pre-draft event, but I am sure that any GM in the history of the game would love to have even one of those guys on their team.

Although you can find out a lot about a player’s mindset and physical attributes at the NFL Scouting Combine, it is also a time for scouts and executives to proceed with caution. May the buyer beware that what they are purchasing may come in a pretty package that turns out to be damaged goods once it is opened. Just because someone is an incredibly impressive athlete does not mean that they will end up in the NFL Hall of Fame.

Despite the fact that you can compile some interesting data on a player at the combine, it is always advisable to take it with a grain of salt and pay close attention to the details of their performance on tape as well. Evaluating players is far from an exact science, but it is the scouting staffs that can read between the lines of on-field performance and combine results that come away with the most success. Let's hope that Mike Maccagnan and the Jets scouts have done their homework and are not fooled by the impostors.

[dbatesman]

Slow down, professor. You're saying we should look at Combine results and film?

[Beerfish]

But.......Al Davis!

[jetfuel]

32 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Slow down, professor. You're saying we should look at Combine results and film?

haha

[jetfuel]

21 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

But.......Al Davis!

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

I love the combine. I tape every day and watch just about every player run the 40 and various other skills tests. It's like all standardized tests and should be only 1 aspect of a players draft grade. 

The NFL Network does an amazing job with the broadcast considering the content. 

[Beerfish]

12 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I love the combine. I tape every day and watch just about every player run the 40 and various other skills tests. It's like all standardized tests and should be only 1 aspect of a players draft grade. 

The NFL Network does an amazing job with the broadcast considering the content. 

Agreed, I like watching it as well.  You actually do learn some things by watching one on ones, the pass catching drills, etc.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, jetfuel said:

 

I am sure that fans of the New York Jets begrudgingly remember the name Vernon Gholston, the workout warrior who hypnotized NFL scouts and executives with his brute strength, terrific speed, towering physique and impressive vertical leap. His phenomenal performance at the scouting combine convinced the Jets to take him sixth in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. 

it should be noted that Gholston only benched (37) and did the broad jump at the combine. The vert and 40 were from the Ohio State pro day. So maybe 'Pro day buyer beware" on that one.  

It should also be noted that both he and Mandarich lacked mentality for the sport, which is not something film would have been able to tell pre-draft. Gholston had great film, including beasting on 1 overall pick Jake Long. 

Finally as the article points out Mike Mamula had a half way decent career, 31 sacks in 5 seasons. He wasn't as great as the player he was drafted to replace, Reggie White. That's why the Philly fans rejected him so harshly. He retired early do to injuries. It was the high expectations that were his undoing. If Mike Mamula goes a round or two later, to a team that didn't just trade Reggie White, he's remembered more as a decent pass rusher with a decent career, not as a phenomenal all time bust. 

the Mamula case is also interesting because it was the dawn of specialized professional Pre-draft training. Now everyone with a shot to be drafted high has a few weeks at a facility like Athlete's Performance. But Mamula I believe was the first one to "study" for the combine so to speak. He also scored a 49 out of 50 on the wonderlic. 

[jetfuel]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

it should be noted that Gholston only benched (37) and did the broad jump at the combine. The vert and 40 were from the Ohio State pro day. So maybe 'Pro day buyer beware" on that one.  

It should also be noted that both he and Mandarich lacked mentality for the sport, which is not something film would have been able to tell pre-draft. Gholston had great film, including beasting on 1 overall pick Jake Long. 

Finally as the article points out Mike Mamula had a half way decent career, 31 sacks in 5 seasons. He wasn't as great as the player he was drafted to replace, Reggie White. That was his undoing, high expectations. If Mike Mamula goes a round or two later he's remembered more as a decent pass rusher not as a phenomenal all time bust. 

the Mamula case is also interesting because it was the dawn of specialized professional Pre-draft training. Now everyone with a shot to be draft high has a few weeks at a facility like Athlete's Performance. But Mamula I believe was the first one to study for the combine so to speak. He also scored a 49 out of 50 on the wonderlic. 

Great points!!!

[cant wait]

44 minutes ago, bitonti said:

it should be noted that Gholston only benched (37) and did the broad jump at the combine. The vert and 40 were from the Ohio State pro day. So maybe 'Pro day buyer beware" on that one.  

It should also be noted that both he and Mandarich lacked mentality for the sport, which is not something film would have been able to tell pre-draft. Gholston had great film, including beasting on 1 overall pick Jake Long. 

Finally as the article points out Mike Mamula had a half way decent career, 31 sacks in 5 seasons. He wasn't as great as the player he was drafted to replace, Reggie White. That's why the Philly fans rejected him so harshly. He retired early do to injuries. It was the high expectations that were his undoing. If Mike Mamula goes a round or two later, to a team that didn't just trade Reggie White, he's remembered more as a decent pass rusher with a decent career, not as a phenomenal all time bust. 

the Mamula case is also interesting because it was the dawn of specialized professional Pre-draft training. Now everyone with a shot to be drafted high has a few weeks at a facility like Athlete's Performance. But Mamula I believe was the first one to "study" for the combine so to speak. He also scored a 49 out of 50 on the wonderlic. 

Much better and more valid points than OP. The article seems to attempt at dismissing the importance of the scouting combine but in reality these numbers are very important when you're projecting prospects potential at the next level, especially at the skill positions

[bitonti]

50 minutes ago, cant wait said:

in reality these numbers are very important when you're projecting prospects potential at the next level, especially at the skill positions

the other side of the Vernon Gholston example is the Boar Hunter example. Anthony Schlegel was not worth a 3rd round pick, or any round pick. Intangibles aren't enough there needs to be some tangibles, and they better be rare for the player to have a chance. 

 

another aspect people forget is that players in the draft aren't just competing with other players in the draft. they are competing with the 2000 or so players who already have jobs in the league.  It's not enough to just be better than the other rookies. A prospect also needs to be better than the player he is replacing. 

[Beerfish]

Gholston was not 'just' a workout warrior though.  He was widely slotted about where he was drafted by the majority of the experts and prognosticators, there were some vocal opponents to him but he had production from the year before and also production vs some good players.  He was a monumental bust and that really killed us but he was not just someone that worked out and was with a lousy program with lousy production.

[dbatesman]

In re: Gholston, here's a guide to which Combine events actually matter when evaluating pass rushers: http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2617783-what-scouts-are-looking-for-at-the-combine-from-pass-rushers

[cant wait]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

In re: Gholston, here's a guide to which Combine events actually matter when evaluating pass rushers: http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2617783-what-scouts-are-looking-for-at-the-combine-from-pass-rushers

The Waldo 3-4 OLB formula has been pretty accurate over the years http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601

[SenorGato]

Yeah, Gholston's status as a workout warrior is overstated. He looked the part but didn't workout like a freak pass rusher.

[dbatesman]

5 minutes ago, cant wait said:

The Waldo 3-4 OLB formula has been pretty accurate over the years http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601

That's a bingo

[T0mShane]

Reading all the draftniks lobbing draft buzzwords around trying to evaluate Paxton Lynch and Carson Wentz, then mocking them everywhere from 2nd overall to the bottom of Round Two is Peak Draftnik Season.

[T0mShane]

Draftnik, two days ago: I mean, I just don't see Wentz making NFL throws on tape. Look at his eyes here...

 

Mayock today: Wentz can be Andrew Luck

 

Draftnik today: I mean, elite size and measurables look at him fire this ball in..,

[TuscanyTile2]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Draftnik, two days ago: I mean, I just don't see Wentz making NFL throws on tape. Look at his eyes here...

 

Mayock today: Wentz can be Andrew Luck

 

Draftnik today: I mean, elite size and measurables look at him fire this ball in..,

Plus the Kiper mocks where he changes a few things just to increase readership.  The NFL really is America's sport because we eat this stuff up even though we know it's not accurate.  It's really funny when they give grades the day after the draft.  Honestly, I think it would be a lot more interesting if each year the analysts wrote updates (maybe for 3-5 years back) on their grades.  For example, Kiper could write something like "I said player X was an A+ when he was drafted 3 years ago but today I would grade him a C-".  Same for team grades.

[jetfuel]

5 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Gholston was not 'just' a workout warrior though.  He was widely slotted about where he was drafted by the majority of the experts and prognosticators, there were some vocal opponents to him but he had production from the year before and also production vs some good players.  He was a monumental bust and that really killed us but he was not just someone that worked out and was with a lousy program with lousy production.

True, but I do remember him being projected late first round to early second before the combine. Seeing him in action definitely helped his stock. The guy is The Incredible Hulk. 

[ComfortablyNumb]

The Waldo 3-4 OLB formula has been pretty accurate over the years http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601

So is this Waldo formula updated for this year after the combine?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cant wait]

57 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

So is this Waldo formula updated for this year after the combine?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm sure it will be, those guys do it every year. Here's 2015:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/31cdb3/best_math_rushers_in_the_2015_class/