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Interesting Josh Allen analysis


nico002

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Found this about Sweat:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/3/18249222/combine-five-thoughts-day-5-pass-rushers-nick-bosa-josh-allen

 

Quote

Mississippi State’s Montez Sweat was the clear winner on the day. The 6-foot-6, 260-pound edge rusher clocked an official 4.41 in the 40—a record for defensive linemen. Times for the 40 can get overblown for pass rushers, but Sweat’s 1.5-second 10-yard split was the second best among edge defenders (TCU’s Ben Banogu, who also dominated virtually every test, finished with a 1.47) and indicates an excellent initial burst. To go along with that performance, Sweat recorded a broad jump that landed in the 92nd percentile among edge rushers since 1999 and a three-cone drill time in the 83rd percentile. Sweat was already considered a potential first-round pick heading into the combine, and he likely moved up a few draft boards on Sunday.

 

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1 hour ago, cant wait said:

LOL ok buddy. you’re literally taking all the tape, all the metrics that show the high twitch score and throwing it all in the trash because you read on some bogus random post that nobody with a 3 cone above 7.1 has ever been a 3x all pro

No, the point is that he's a bit light in most athleticism ranking methodologies and skipped a pretty important drill for his position. We are discussing whether or not this is the type of prospect you'd be crazy to trade down instead of picking, and I'm saying he's not that type of guy based on his athleticism alone. (And that 3-cone benchmark was 7.11)

We can debate the merit of such a mindset but  it's not over thinking it to have athletic entrance criteria for that position.

 

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1 minute ago, CTM said:

I've been messing around a bit with calculating Waldo's #'s but some of the data is hard to come by. Sparq is out there and easy to see. 

https://3sigmaathlete.com/sparq-rankings-2019/edge/

Trouble is that right now many guys didn't run everything.  They are starting to concentrate on one thing for combine and another for pro days. The SPARQ stuff just went up and it is incomplete for many guys - Oliver for instance. For Waldo it is probably even worse.

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Just now, #27TheDominator said:

Trouble is that right now many guys didn't run everything.  They are starting to concentrate on one thing for combine and another for pro days. The SPARQ stuff just went up and it is incomplete for many guys - Oliver for instance. For Waldo it is probably even worse.

yes there are also conflicting reports. I was seeing bosa's 10 yd split was 1.61 but then I saw another twatter had it at 1.55

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On 3/25/2019 at 8:09 AM, nico002 said:

First watch this video on why Dion Jordan failed: 

 

Then look at the same analysis for Josh Allen: 

 

 

Summary: The guy looks as a stat called “share of production” that measures what percentage of the teams sacks/tackles for loss/etc come from the player. Deion Jordan had huge red flags in this area while Allen looks to project to a future all pro. I thought this was interesting since the biggest knock on Allen’s production is that he “lucked” into a bunch of open lane sacks- the fact that he seems to be the only one on his team to benefit from this makes his production seems much more legit.

those open lane sacks do scream "Gholston!" at me, though

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2 hours ago, NYs Stepchild said:

The most important trait for an NFL edge rusher is that bend and agility to cut down the angle to the QB.

You can see it right away. Tackles will attempt to push you past the pocket and you need to cut that angle down without losing your balance. 

Alllen has that. Bosa doesn't. 

The next most important trait is feeling what the tackle is trying to do and countering it with your body and hands. Bosa has that but Allen does not...yet.  

Bosa will be very good. Allen may be great or may bust. Allen could always play off the ball if he fails as a pass rusher.

 

Bosa shreds double teams as well.

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14 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

I agree with you that this criticism is stupid. I think the idea behind it, or at least my impression from what I've heard, is that his sacks are related to his quickness compared to his level of college competition. More specifically how he (supposedly) won't be as effective against NFL level athletes. The same way they talk about some players overwhelming college opponents with their strength/bull rush and not being able to do that in the pros 

This would be a valid argument if Allen was playing weak competition but he was in the SEC doing this 

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21 hours ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Starting to seem like Q. Williams is the safer of the three. Bosa has injury issues and Allen has questionable athleticism. 

And doesnt that scare Jets fans to death

Allen’s athleticism is off the charts.  He also does not have Bosa’s injury history

 

That said the main criticism I have of Allen is I don’t think he gets low enough when he rushes the passer.  That is something that can be worked on even at the nfl level but look at a guy like Myles Garret who in college could get extremely low almost to the point that it looked like he was levitating at times

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42 minutes ago, CTM said:

I've been messing around a bit with calculating Waldo's #'s but some of the data is hard to come by. Sparq is out there and easy to see. 

https://3sigmaathlete.com/sparq-rankings-2019/edge/

Looks like we should take Allen since he's the only OLB in the top 30.

Or trade down and get one of these three:

 

2 Montez Sweat DL51 DE Mississippi State 23 6056 260 145.0 1.9 97.1 Sweat 6056 260 35.75 10.50 84.75 4.41     4.29 7.00 21 36 10.42
5
3 Rashan Gary DL37 DE Michigan 21.7 6043 277 142.2 1.7 95.5 Gary 6043 277 34.13 9.63 81.875 4.58     4.29 7.26 26 38 10
6
4 Brian Burns DL28 DE Florida State 21.4 6046 249 140.8 1.6 94.3
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2 hours ago, CTM said:

No, the point is that he's a bit light in most athleticism ranking methodologies and skipped a pretty important drill for his position. We are discussing whether or not this is the type of prospect you'd be crazy to trade down instead of picking, and I'm saying he's not that type of guy based on his athleticism alone. (And that 3-cone benchmark was 7.11)

We can debate the merit of such a mindset but  it's not over thinking it to have athletic entrance criteria for that position.

 

it’s overthinking it when you’re citing benchmarks that aren’t true as your justification for not taking a player. allen did exactly what he needed to cement his draft position, if he was considered a fringe 1st round pick you can bet his agent would be out there getting him to improve his scores at the pro day. deciding whether to trade down or not from #3 is a completely different story- I’d be perfectly fine with trading down and taking brian burns for example but we have no idea what potential deals are on the table 

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