Two Predictions about Aaron Rodgers True so Far Thru 1st Q of 2024

[Warfish]

There were two predictions that I heard repeated many times this offseason in re: to Aaron Rodgers:

1. That Aaron Rodgers was probably not a top 5 QB anymore; and

2. That even if he wasn't, and even at his worst, he would still provide the best QB play/production we've seen in many years for the Jets.

So far, both of these seem to be accurate:

Thru four games (a little bit less than 1/4 of the season), Rodgers is ranked:

• 24th in Comp. Percentage (64.1%)
• 17th in Passing Yards (849 or 212.3 YPG)
• 17th in TD Pass Percentage (3.9%) and tied for 11th in total Passing TD's (5)
• 3rd  in Interception Percentage (0.8%) and tied for 2nd (I believe) if fewest total INT's (1)
• 18th in Pass Success Rate (44.9%)
• 24th in Yard Per Attempt (6.6)
• 17th in Sacks Taken Percentage (7.25%)
• 16th in QB Rating (92.2) and 19th in QBR (50.1)

Pretty middle-of-the-pack numbers for a starting NFL QB, ranked in the middle or bottom half in pretty much every facet other than throwing INT's (where he remains truly elite).

But these numbers, middling though they may be vs. the rest of the NFL, are still waaaaay above where the Jets have been rated in recent years in the same production categories.

As a reminder, the Jets primary starter Zach last year finished the year ranked:

• 30th in Comp. Percentage (60.1%)
• 26th in Passing Yards (2,271 or 189.3 YPG)
• 30th in TD Pass Percentage (2.2%)
• 17th in INT Percentage (1.9%)
• 32nd in Pass Success Rate (36.5%)
• 29th in Yards Per Attempt (6.2)
• 33rd in Sacks Taken Percentage (11.11$)
• 30th in QB Rating (77.2) and 31st IN QBR (30.6)

Now Rodgers could of course improve his rankings with better games as his/our season winds on, of course, further proving both offseason claims.

The real question remains the question asked in the offseason:  Is the level of improvement by Rodgers over Zach enough to win multiple more games than the Jets did under Zach, and is the production variance enough in the positive to justify the move to acquire, and the added wins it brought.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season, when hopefully Rodgers improves from his numbers above, and we do better than 2-2.

[GregButtleFan]

8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

There were two predictions that I heard repeated many times this offseason in re: to Aaron Rodgers:

1. That Aaron Rodgers was probably not a top 5 QB anymore; and

2. That even if he wasn't, and even at his worst, he would still provide the best QB play/production we've seen in many years for the Jets.

So far, both of these seem to be accurate:

Thru four games (a little bit less than 1/4 of the season), Rodgers is ranked:

• 24th in Comp. Percentage (64.1%)
• 17th in Passing Yards (849 or 212.3 YPG)
• 17th in TD Pass Percentage (3.9%) and tied for 11th in total Passing TD's (5)
• 3rd  in Interception Percentage (0.8%) and tied for 2nd (I believe) if fewest total INT's (1)
• 18th in Pass Success Rate (44.9%)
• 24th in Yard Per Attempt (6.6)
• 17th in Sacks Taken Percentage (7.25%)
• 16th in QB Rating (92.2) and 19th in QBR (50.1)

Pretty middle-of-the-pack numbers for a starting NFL QB, ranked in the middle or bottom half in pretty much every facet other than throwing INT's (where he remains truly elite).

But these numbers, middling though they may be vs. the rest of the NFL, are still waaaaay above where the Jets have been rated in recent years in the same production categories.

As a reminder, the Jets primary starter Zach last year finished the year ranked:

• 30th in Comp. Percentage (60.1%)
• 26th in Passing Yards (2,271 or 189.3 YPG)
• 30th in TD Pass Percentage (2.2%)
• 17th in INT Percentage (1.9%)
• 32nd in Pass Success Rate (36.5%)
• 29th in Yards Per Attempt (6.2)
• 33rd in Sacks Taken Percentage (11.11$)
• 30th in QB Rating (77.2) and 31st IN QBR (30.6)

Now Rodgers could of course improve his rankings with better games as his/our season winds on, of course, further proving both offseason claims.

The real question remains the question asked in the offseason:  Is the level of improvement by Rodgers over Zach enough to win multiple more games than the Jets did under Zach, and is the production variance enough in the positive to justify the move to acquire, and the added wins it brought.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season, when hopefully Rodgers improves from his numbers above, and we do better than 2-2.

He looks kind of washed to me honestly. How many balls has he short hopped this year? He used to make those in his sleep. I think it’s only going to get worse as he gets more banged up. 

My prediction is that we are going to see Tyrod Taylor sooner than later and he’s going to look a lot better than Aaron. 
 

I appreciate Rodgers attempt to come here and he’s always going to be among the GOATs, but he’s cooked. 

[bitonti]

27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

There were two predictions that I heard repeated many times this offseason in re: to Aaron Rodgers:

1. That Aaron Rodgers was probably not a top 5 QB anymore; and

2. That even if he wasn't, and even at his worst, he would still provide the best QB play/production we've seen in many years for the Jets.

So far, both of these seem to be accurate:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The real question remains the question asked in the offseason:  Is the level of improvement by Rodgers over Zach enough to win multiple more games than the Jets did under Zach, and is the production variance enough in the positive to justify the move to acquire, and the added wins it brought.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season, when hopefully Rodgers improves from his numbers above, and we do better than 2-2.

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

[Bobby816]

I see a guy that has the arm talent and smarts still.

Just needs to get all these new guys on his page. Which will happen. It just takes time.

Pre snap penalties need to stop.

WRs not being in the right spots needs to stop. That's not him.

 

Quite frankly Rodgers has earned the respect that if a ball is thrown no where near a guy that I 100% think the WR is at fault.

So when a ball is up the seam to GW and his head isn't even turned.... IMO GW ran the wrong route and Rodgers has told him in coverages like that in a 2min drill that he needs to be in x spot and GW messed it up.

 I could be dead wrong though.

 

I think the more we play together on offense the more we see regularly the offense we saw against NE.

We just need to stay in it through about 1/2 the season and I think we turn it on in the 2nd half.

[LockeJET]

IDGAF - Just win!!

[Warfish]

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

In fairness and full disclosure, all these number are easily scraped from Pro Football Reference

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

We have to hope it improves.  Of all the moving pieces, I'm still most focused on the O-Co, who I think (even with Rodgers here) is a big part of our offensive problems.  That, and the O-Line IMO need to improve greatly in the running game, and yes, some in the passing game too.  Only time will tell if it's "5 guys getting used to each other having had no preseason" or some larger systemic or other problem.

[bitonti]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

  or some larger systemic or other problem.

keith carter being the league's worst OL coach plus hackett the league's worst OC means it's basically all on Aaron 

[Biggs]

26 minutes ago, bitonti said:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

The idea was it gave JD and Saleh a two year window to save their jobs.  1 year is gone and the moving companies are pitching JD and Saleh’s wife for a contract. 

[BreeceHallofFame]

We’ve played top 5 defenses every week. Including 3 games in 11 days and another in a rain storm. All of this while the guy hasn’t played in a full year so it’s going to take time to get back in the groove. Making a judgment on things at this point is pretty silly. 

[whodeawhodat]

We caught a glimpse of what this offense will become in week 3. 

 

precision offense takes longer than 4 weeks to click, who would have thunk it....

[chirorob]

57 minutes ago, GregButtleFan said:

He looks kind of washed to me honestly. How many balls has he short hopped this year? He used to make those in his sleep. I think it’s only going to get worse as he gets more banged up. 

My prediction is that we are going to see Tyrod Taylor sooner than later and he’s going to look a lot better than Aaron. 
 

I appreciate Rodgers attempt to come here and he’s always going to be among the GOATs, but he’s cooked. 

So, they aren't benching Rodgers.  Like, ever.   If he gets hurt, sure.

Some throws have been off.   Some throws, he is expecting the WR to do one thing, and they are doing something else.  There is a huge communication breakdown going on.

[GregButtleFan]

53 minutes ago, chirorob said:

So, they aren't benching Rodgers.  Like, ever.   If he gets hurt, sure.

Some throws have been off.   Some throws, he is expecting the WR to do one thing, and they are doing something else.  There is a huge communication breakdown going on.

They aren’t going to bench him, but hes going to miss time and I think Taylor will show he’s the better player 

[FidelioJet]

Yup.

This is about the expectation.  And with this defense it probably make this a wild card and out team.