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I was listening to Comcast Sports New England last night and it was said that Red Sox fans should not expect too much of Lester this year because he pitched "too much" last year.....that he carried the pitching staff last year, threw too many pitches/innings last season and now he's tired. They said to expect him to be put on the 15 day DL sometime this season to give him a break and call up Buckholtz.

Explain this to me, please. Didn't he have all off season to rest?

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I was listening to Comcast Sports New England last night and it was said that Red Sox fans should not expect too much of Lester this year because he pitched "too much" last year.....that he carried the pitching staff last year, threw too many pitches/innings last season and now he's tired. They said to expect him to be put on the 15 day DL sometime this season to give him a break and call up Buckholtz.

Explain this to me, please. Didn't he have all off season to rest?

Nolan Ryan should be a guy who has a tired arm.

John Lester, not so much.

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I was listening to Comcast Sports New England last night and it was said that Red Sox fans should not expect too much of Lester this year because he pitched "too much" last year.....that he carried the pitching staff last year, threw too many pitches/innings last season and now he's tired. They said to expect him to be put on the 15 day DL sometime this season to give him a break and call up Buckholtz.

Explain this to me, please. Didn't he have all off season to rest?

Some experts believe in the 40 inning rule, some say its the 30 inning rule. Either way the jist of it is that a young pitcher shouldn't pitch more then 30-40 innings more then he did the prior year.

In 2008 Lester pitched 70+(i think) innings more then he did in 2007. He is the leagues highest violator of the 30 inning rule this year. Studies show that pitchers tend to break down the year after they violate the rule.

Some believe in it, some don't. But that's the reason they talk about it.

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I was listening to Comcast Sports New England last night and it was said that Red Sox fans should not expect too much of Lester this year because he pitched "too much" last year.....that he carried the pitching staff last year, threw too many pitches/innings last season and now he's tired. They said to expect him to be put on the 15 day DL sometime this season to give him a break and call up Buckholtz.

Explain this to me, please. Didn't he have all off season to rest?

LOL yes, he did.

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Some experts believe in the 40 inning rule, some say its the 30 inning rule. Either way the jist of it is that a young pitcher shouldn't pitch more then 30-40 innings more then he did the prior year.

In 2008 Lester pitched 70+(i think) innings more then he did in 2007. He is the leagues highest violator of the 30 inning rule this year. Studies show that pitchers tend to break down the year after they violate the rule.

Some believe in it, some don't. But that's the reason they talk about it.

Tom Verducci has followed this for a few years now. And he's studied 20-something pitchers, and only 1-2 did as well as the previous year or didn't get injured...

EDIT: Here's this year's article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tom_verducci/04/07/yearafter.effect/index.html

How much should those guys be worried? Over the previous three years I red-flagged a total of 24 young pitchers at the start of those seasons. Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez of Colorado, a guy I said would be less at risk because of his powerful body type.

On his list this year? You guessed it: Lester. He pitched 83 1/3 more innings last year than his previous high.

Also on are Cole Hamels, Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Mike Pelfrey, Dana Eveland, Jon Danks, Clayton Kershaw, Jair Jurrjens, and Jon Niese.

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Tom Verducci has followed this for a few years now. And he's studied 20-something pitchers, and only 1-2 did as well as the previous year or didn't get injured...

EDIT: Here's this year's article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tom_verducci/04/07/yearafter.effect/index.html

On his list this year? You guessed it: Lester. He pitched 83 1/3 more innings last year than his previous high.

Also on are Cole Hamels, Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Mike Pelfrey, Dana Eveland, Jon Danks, Clayton Kershaw, Jair Jurrjens, and Jon Niese.

All arms are not created equal. Nor all bodies.

Just look at the base that a Billingsley pushes off with. He uses his lower body ala Tom Seaver.

Every arm, every player will react differently. You can't put magic formulas to this.

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I was listening to Comcast Sports New England last night and it was said that Red Sox fans should not expect too much of Lester this year because he pitched "too much" last year.....that he carried the pitching staff last year, threw too many pitches/innings last season and now he's tired. They said to expect him to be put on the 15 day DL sometime this season to give him a break and call up Buckholtz.

Explain this to me, please. Didn't he have all off season to rest?

Great point.

They try to build the pitchers arm strength to the point it can pitch over 200 innings over a 6 month season without breaking down and needing surgery.

From little league through college or low minors, they never pitch that many innings.

I liken it to doing your normal workout routine and then increasing the workload 100+% without preparing your body for it.

Some experts believe in the 40 inning rule, some say its the 30 inning rule. Either way the jist of it is that a young pitcher shouldn't pitch more then 30-40 innings more then he did the prior year.

In 2008 Lester pitched 70+(i think) innings more then he did in 2007. He is the leagues highest violator of the 30 inning rule this year. Studies show that pitchers tend to break down the year after they violate the rule.

Some believe in it, some don't. But that's the reason they talk about it.

70? I wish. He went from 71.2 to 237.

The are expecting the same thing from Cole Hamels. Even the Rays saw increases in innings pitched.

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Great point.

They try to build the pitchers arm strength to the point it can pitch over 200 innings over a 6 month season without breaking down and needing surgery.

From little league through college or low minors, they never pitch that many innings.

I liken it to doing your normal workout routine and then increasing the workload 100+% without preparing your body for it.

70? I wish. He went from 71.2 to 237.

The are expecting the same thing from Cole Hamels. Even the Rays saw increases in innings pitched.

he threw 90.2 in the minors in 2007 also...

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All arms are not created equal. Nor all bodies.

Just look at the base that a Billingsley pushes off with. He uses his lower body ala Tom Seaver.

Every arm, every player will react differently. You can't put magic formulas to this.

Agreed. I was just pointing out this research, although having a pretty small sample size, is at least something general to consider due to its profound rate of prediction.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
7 IP 2 hits 1 ER 2 BB 11 Ks tonight against Philly. Are you satisfied Blackout? He's been money the last few starts.

No. BO is doing his good luck dance for Burnett today.

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