bad luck

[bitonti]

the difference between "good" teams in the NFL and "bad" teams in the NFL is never as great as it seems to the casual observer. People look at the standings after a couple of weeks and live by the Parcells maxim you are what your record says you are - on the surface that is true.

but in this age of parity, it's not about talent levels as much as it is about momentum and breaks. Catch bad breaks, lose momentum and things start to snowball. Change personel every week, bring in QB's off the street and things can get ugly.

Things look bleak now but there was a definate series of events that got us here. Fans don't want to believe me, they want to blame people - and that's fine.

But my point is that if the Jets from the preseason onward stay healthy, catch breaks, build momentum - they are a championship caliber team. Any team, dealt the series of events the Jets have faced in 2005 would be in a similar situation, maybe worse. That doesn't make them bad, just unlucky.

Blowing up every position on the offense is not an option and even if it was it is not the solution. There is no point in replacing everyone when the pillars of the team (whoever they are at the time) don't stay healthy.

Bad Luck example #1: Jay Fiedler - looked great in preseason - the only one on the team that really knew Dinger's offense - could have been a viable starter for this team post-Chad. They lost him indefinately on his first pass attempt. This isn't like 1999 where GM bungling had the team backup-less after Vinny went down - Terry Bradway bought an insurance policy for Chad - it lasted 1 play. Stuff like that you can't plan for and you can't overreact to... it sucks and there's nothing that can be done. I know this isn't an answer the fans want to hear but it's the truth. With Fiedler they are maybe 4-2 instead of 2-4.

---

Look down-hearted and confused

Because lately you

[Scott Dierking]

the difference between "good" teams in the NFL and "bad" teams in the NFL is never as great as it seems to the casual observer. People look at the standings after a couple of weeks and live by the Parcells maxim you are what your record says you are - on the surface that is true.

but in this age of parity, it's not about talent levels as much as it is about momentum and breaks. Catch bad breaks, lose momentum and things start to snowball. Change personel every week, bring in QB's off the street and things can get ugly.

Things look bleak now but there was a definate series of events that got us here. Fans don't want to believe me, they want to blame people - and that's fine.

But my point is that if the Jets from the preseason onward stay healthy, catch breaks, build momentum - they are a championship caliber team. Any team, dealt the series of events the Jets have faced in 2005 would be in a similar situation, maybe worse. That doesn't make them bad, just unlucky.

Blowing up every position on the offense is not an option and even if it was it is not the solution. There is no point in replacing everyone when the pillars of the team (whoever they are at the time) don't stay healthy.

Bad Luck example #1: Jay Fiedler - looked great in preseason - the only one on the team that really knew Dinger's offense - could have been a viable starter for this team post-Chad. They lost him indefinately on his first pass attempt. This isn't like 1999 where GM bungling had the team backup-less after Vinny went down - Terry Bradway bought an insurance policy for Chad - it lasted 1 play. Stuff like that you can't plan for and you can't overreact to... it sucks and there's nothing that can be done. I know this isn't an answer the fans want to hear but it's the truth. With Fiedler they are maybe 4-2 instead of 2-4.

---

[TomShane]

The Patriots lose their top two running backs and Patrick Pass comes in and looks like the reincarnation of Kevin Mack.

The Patriots lose Drew Beldsoe and come up with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady.

The Giants lose Phil Simms during a Super Bowl run and Jeff Hostetler comes in and wins a Super Bowl.

The Steelers lose their top two free agents every year and they get replaced by guys who are more often than not the guys they replaced.

Mike Vick goes down with injury and Matt Schaub comes in and looks like the next Tom Brady.

Donovan McNabb goes down and Ty Detmer/Koy Detmer/AJ Feeley come in and carry the team for weeks at a time.

The point? Every team experiences "bad luck" during the season. The key is to have well-coached, ready to play back-ups prepared to contribute to winning games. It's the same f'ing story with Herm every year. John Abe goes down? Bryan Thomas is useless. Chad goes down? Brooks Bollinger comes in and sets quarterback play back ten years. Fabini goes down? We have to go scramble and get Scott Gragg. It'a a freaking joke. How about when Matt Light went down for the Pats against the Steelers? That was "bad luck." Or how about when Russ Hochstein had to start in the Super Bowl against Kris Jenkins? Bad luck again! Injuries freaking happen. That's why there are 53 roster spots, not 24. The team is poorly coached, and that's why when a back-up has to play they are never EVER prepared. How about Jonathan Goodwin? Four years in the league and he can't complete a snap to Testaverde? It's ridiculous. "Bad luck" my ass. Bad coaching.

[bitonti]

TOm Shane those are great examples can you show me 1 sitaution in the history of the NFL where a team lost the starter and the backup at the QB position and won games? I dare you or anyone to find such an example.

Can anyone explain to me how Jay Fielder lasted 1 pass attempt? Talk about Chad - fine whatever. But mark my words this is a 5-1, 4-2 or at worst 3-3 and leading the division squad with Fiedler. The guy lasted 1 pass attempt. How is that Herm's fault?

[Garb]

crappy offensive line? :wink:

[TomShane]

TOm Shane those are great examples can you show me 1 sitaution in the history of the NFL where a team lost the starter and the backup at the QB position and won games? I dare you or anyone to find such an example.

Can anyone explain to me how Jay Fielder lasted 1 pass attempt? Talk about Chad - fine whatever. But mark my words this is a 5-1, 4-2 or at worst 3-3 and leading the division squad with Fiedler. The guy lasted 1 pass attempt. How is that Herm's fault?

1) Eagles, three years ago: McNabb, injured. Detmer, injured. AJ Feeley comes in and wins two out of three.

and

2) These injuries at QB didn't just "jump up" on the Jets, bit. Chad had been injured for almost 6 months when he was sent out there. He looked freaking awful against the Chiefs and Dolphins before he went down. And this isn't exactly Lou Gehrig at QB, either. You KNOW he's getting injured in the best of circumstances, and he goes out there with a gimpy, vulnerable shoulder and gets hurt. If Herm was surprised by that, then he's stupider that we thought. And Fiedler is 34 years old, weighs 200 pounds soaking wet, playing in a Dinger offense that doesn't protect the QB. Look at McNair-- he was near-death every year that Dinger coached him in Tennessee. Yes, it sucks that he went down, but the Jets HAD to understand that their #3 QB was, in fact, a de-factp #2 QB because Chad was destined to hit the deck and not get up. Guess what, it happened, Fielder got hurt, and the only people surprised that the Jets #3 QB had to start a game was Hermie and the Jets. Stupidity.

[bitonti]

crappy offensive line? :wink:

maybe - except that the play Fiedler got injured he was rolling out of the pocket and was close to the sidelines when he fell awkwardly. Whether that rollout was designed or not I can't remember.

Let's be real the Texans have a crappy offensive line and that guy Carr has been a punching bag for years. It's one thing to have a crappy offensive line it's another thing to just have BAD LUCK.

[bitonti]

Stupidity.

no one expects injuries TS. You hope they don't happen. They can replace the coach and the entire offense if that squad doesn't stay healthy guess what we are in the same boat. What would we do then? Fire that coach? Replace everyone on that offense? at some point the players have to play.

[TomShane]

no one expects injuries TS. You hope they don't happen. They can replace the coach and the entire offense if that squad doesn't stay healthy guess what we are in the same boat. What would we do then? Fire that coach? Replace everyone on that offense? at some point the players have to play.

Here's the thing, bit. Good teams deal with injuries. The back-ups are prepared. You do too expect injuries to happen--that is why you have 53 players. That is why you play four pre-season games so you can find out who your eighth offensive lineman is and who your third QB is. You must be prepared to win when injuries happen. The Panthers have been ravaged by injuries the past two years and they have struggled, but Fox isn't working on excuses, he's working on getting that team off the mat. They are 4-2 this year after going 7-9 last year without their top five players. The Jets get an injury and the "poor Herm" chant starts. Guess what? F*ck Herm. Get your players ready to play. All of them. If Brooks Bollinger can't complete a pass to the wide receivers, that's the HC's fault for giving him a roster spot when Vinny was sitting at home. You just cannot use injuries as an excuse.

[bitonti]

by the way that's a good call on the Eagles with Feely for bonus points can you remember any team in the history of the NFL that won with their 4th QB?

bottom line this team with a healthy Jay Fielder is a whole nother beast. It's one thing to replace a DB or an OL or a WR. It's another thing to have to replace your QB every other week. It's the most imporatant position on the field.

[TomShane]

by the way that's a good call on the Eagles with Feely for bonus points can you remember any team in the history of the NFL that won with their 4th QB?

bottom line this team with a healthy Jay Fielder is a whole nother beast. It's one thing to replace a DB or an OL or a WR. It's another thing to have to replace your QB every other week. It's the most imporatant position on the field.

If Rex Grossman was helthy for the Bears, we would surely have met them in the Super Bowl this year. Dipsy do, baby!

[bitonti]

yeah well bad luck for them too. No one ever said the Jets were the only team that suffered bad breaks.

[TomShane]

yeah well bad luck for them too. No one ever said the Jets were the only team that suffered bad breaks.

Bit, say it with me: Kooooooooooooob. Kooooooooob.

KUBIAK!

[Matt39]

With zero injuries, I even have a hard time believing the Jets were a playoff team this season.

[Preston Howley III]

With zero injuries, I even have a hard time believing the Jets were a playoff team this season.

True, Matt.

When you lose a OT and a NT in one season to free agency, it's tough, but you still have to replace them.

Once again, Bradway and Herm failed to do that.

[Scott Dierking]

Bit, say it with me: Kooooooooooooob. Kooooooooob.

KUBIAK!

So TS, you are back on in the on again off again Kubiak love affair?

That sounds like a bad plan TS.

[TomShane]

So TS, you are back on in the on again off again Kubiak love affair?

That sounds like a bad plan TS.

It's risky, I'll give you that. But, it's just a name I'm throwing out there.

[Scott Dierking]

It's risky, I'll give you that. But, it's just a name I'm throwing out there.

I believe (as you and I dicscussed yesterday), that you have to find out who the GM of this organization is going to be first. That needs to be move ONE.

Right now, we appear to have a disjointed blend of GM and coaching style. One does not seem to compliment the other.

Once we know who the GM is going to be, then a list of suitors for coaching can begin, and we pick teh best mesh.

JMO

[bitonti]

you can replace the GM and the HC and the entire offense, if the players the team pays like rockstars don't stay healthy - it doesn't matter.

[Barton]

I was glad Fielder got injured, whats the point if he started? Our team would win maybe 8 games and what would be the point of that in the end? We'd just be in worse draft position.

If you're gonna have a losing season, make it good enough for a high draft pick. If you're gonna lose, you might as well lose with alittle light at the end of the tunnel.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

I was glad Fielder got injured, whats the point if he started? Our team would win maybe 8 games and what would be the point of that in the end? We'd just be in worse draft position.

If you're gonna have a losing season, make it good enough for a high draft pick. If you're gonna lose, you might as well lose with alittle light at the end of the tunnel.

[Maxman]

So TS, you are back on in the on again off again Kubiak love affair?

That sounds like a bad plan TS.

It's risky, I'll give you that. But, it's just a name I'm throwing out there.

Watch Tom's posts. He will "throw out" about 12 names. He will then bump the one that works out the best.

[PatsFanTX]

But my point is that if the Jets from the preseason onward stay healthy, catch breaks, build momentum - they are a championship caliber team. Any team, dealt the series of events the Jets have faced in 2005 would be in a similar situation, maybe worse. That doesn't make them bad, just unlucky.

Are you kidding me?

The Jets suck because they are "unlucky"?

No, the Jets suck because they were not/are not a good football team, even before the season began, let alone some "championship caliber team".

bit, that was one of the whinniest posts that I have ever read in my life.

[Maxman]

Are you kidding me?

The Jets suck because they are "unlucky"?

No, the Jets suck because they were not/are not a good football team, even before the season began, let alone some "championship caliber team".

bit, that was one of the whinniest posts that I have ever read in my life.

Tx:

The Jets were a kick away from the Championship game. They did improve the team this year. They are unlucky. 2 QBs going down like that, that is just brutal.

[PatsFanTX]

Tx:

The Jets were a kick away from the Championship game. They did improve the team this year. They are unlucky. 2 QBs going down like that, that is just brutal.

Max, you are as bad as bit.

And I love that "one kick away from the AFC Championship game" validation.

First off, the Jets came roaring down the stretch last year at 1-3, including an embarrassing home blowout loss to the Pats.

When a playoff position was on the line, the Jets vaunted defense get shredded by Marc Bulger and only backed into the playoffs because the Bills couldn't handle the Steelers 3rd stringers.

Then, in the opening round of the playoffs, the Jets get "lucky" when a friggn' rookie kicker misses a game-winning chip shot FG.

But if you want to continue and fool yourself, yea, the Jets were one kick from the AFCC game.

[afosomf]

Bit has lost all credibility on this board.

The truth about him, yes he is Herm's brother and will defend him to his death

Herm has skated on the "luck" pond throughout is whole tenure as "grillmaster"

[GimmeShelter]

Are you kidding me?

The Jets suck because they are "unlucky"?

No, the Jets suck because they were not/are not a good football team, even before the season began, let alone some "championship caliber team".

bit, that was one of the whinniest posts that I have ever read in my life.

The TX compliment thread has brought the idiot in him back out.

Txy...how's your defense doing with it's injuries?

27-28th in the league?

How's a banged up Dillon doing?

Now take away Brady and Flutie. How are the Pats doing then?

News flash sport, we're down to our 4th string QB and the Pats have one more victory. You of all people should understand the affect injuries have on a team when you watch the NFL drop 28 points on the great BB week after week.

A healthy Jet team would be doing just fine.

Hilarious that a fan of a team that has benefited from the tuck rule, the Ty Law rule and a FG kicker wants to call our SD win lucky.

I wonder if Pittsburgh fans last year felt they were the lucky ones.

Tip for you, when Assmop shares your opinion you probably need to rethink it.

[RSJ]

The TX compliment thread has brought the idiot in him back out.

Txy...how's your defense doing with it's injuries?

27-28th in the league?

How's a banged up Dillon doing?

Now take away Brady and Flutie. How are the Pats doing then?

News flash sport, we're down to our 4th string QB and the Pats have one more victory. You of all people should understand the affect injuries have on a team when you watch the NFL drop 28 points on the great BB week after week.

A healthy Jet team would be doing just fine.

Hilarious that a fan of a team that has benefited from the tuck rule, the Ty Law rule and a FG kicker wants to call our SD win lucky.

I wonder if Pittsburgh fans last year felt they were the lucky ones.

Tip for you, when Assmop shares your opinion you probably need to rethink it.

There is no luck involved winning 3 out of 4 super bowls.

It is not just the injuries this year that have hurt the pats. It is the series of loses they have recieved in coaching and players over a 4 year period. And this is because teams will pay big bucks for free agents from a super bowl winner. The Jets currently have 3 times as many players on thier roster from 4 years ago than the Pats. But hey the pats aren't using this as an excuse anyway because thier record is currently better than the Jets. And will definitly finish better this season.

[GimmeShelter]

There is no luck involved winning 3 out of 4 super bowls.

It is not just the injuries this year that have hurt the pats. It is the series of loses they have recieved in coaching and players over a 4 year period. And this is because teams will pay big bucks for free agents from a super bowl winner. The Jets currently have 3 times as many players on thier roster from 4 years ago than the Pats. But hey the pats aren't using this as an excuse anyway because thier record is currently better than the Jets. And will definitly finish better this season.

Rsherry....I understand that the Pats rings weren't aquired by just luck. The same is true of the Jets play-off win last year.

Those player/coaching losses you speak of were not suppossed to affect the Pats at all remember?

The Pats fans have many times pointed to their injuries this year as a reason for opponents lighting up the scoreboard.

I know it's chic to bash everyone and everything about the Jets right now but implying that they wouldn't contend for the division or a wildcard with a healthy team is wrong.

[Alk]

Bit has lost all credibility on this board.

The truth about him, yes he is Herm's brother and will defend him to his death

Herm has skated on the "luck" pond throughout is whole tenure as "grillmaster"

BLASPHEMY!! He runs his own football website. How dare you question him!!

[PatsFanTX]

The Pats fans have many times pointed to their injuries this year as a reason for opponents lighting up the scoreboard.

What Pats fans have been whinning about injuries?

Injuries are a part of the game and again, good/great teams overcome injuries and continue to win football games.

The problem with the Pats injuries this year (versus last year) is that the players stepping in for injured players this year have played like crap.

That's a performance problem and not an injury problem.

[gg]

What Pats fans have been whinning about injuries?

Injuries are a part of the game and again, good/great teams overcome injuries and continue to win football games.

The problem with the Pats injuries this year (versus last year) is that the players stepping in for injured players this year have played like crap.

That's a performance problem and not an injury problem.

oh yes... tx is a such a positive level-headed fan.. right... and i am the Queen of Sheba!

you are right gimmie... this Tx a$$-kissing has gone to his head.

[Maxman]

But if you want to continue and fool yourself, yea, the Jets were one kick from the AFCC game.

Oh so the Jets are unlucky 90% of the time and they can't count the 10% of luck they do get. I understand now.

YOu know what...Bit's point is that you have to be good. But you also have to get some breaks.

The 1996 Yankees beat the Braves in the World Series. You know why? Because of a rainout. It was a different series before that rainout. That was luck.

[Maxman]

Injuries are a part of the game and again, good/great teams overcome injuries and continue to win football games.

Bit's main point is that no team is going to lose their # 1 and # 2 for the year and not struggle.

[PatsFanTX]

Bit's main point is that no team is going to lose their # 1 and # 2 for the year and not struggle.

Eagles 2003.

They survived losing their #1 and #2 QB.