A couple good labor pieces from PFT

[Bx Jet Fan]

Average ticket=$100.00

10 Games @80,000 people=800,000

800,000x100=80,000,000

80,000,000x32 teams= $2.56 Billion

2.56 Bil + 1.2 Bil =3.76 Billion

Last years cap @127mil x 32 teams = $3.74 Billion.

Get a guy with deep pockets and it could work.

[Klecko73isGod]

Average ticket=$100.00

10 Games @80,000 people=800,000

800,000x100=80,000,000

80,000,000x32 teams= $2.56 Billion

2.56 Bil + 1.2 Bil =3.76 Billion

Last years cap @127mil x 32 teams = $3.74 Billion.

Get a guy with deep pockets and it could work.

Nobody's got pockets that deep.

[Sperm Edwards]

Realistically, in order for that to happen, someone would have to have plans in place right now in case of a lockout.

Getting 25 or so billionaires to commit to owning teams in a new league that has never existed before. How much are these new owners going to be willing to pay the players?

They better have committments from TV Networks for big money so they can sign these newly available star football players. These guys aren't going to sign for less money to play for a rival league just because its there.

While it's easy to say that someone could start a new league if there is a lockout, logistically its a completely different story.

When I edited my post I left that part out. I'm sure there would be a lost year. All that couldn't get done on the fly.

But there would be a demand for viewing those players so there will be potential owners as well as networks willing to cough up money.

It could be done. The reason it's failed in the past, in the end, was because of the lack of sustained fan interest. If all the great players were there rather than in the NFL the fan interest would shift as the NFL would instead be the unsustainable league. Want to take it one step further? Then after NFL teams go out of business the new USFL or whatever gets to buy current NFL stadiums at super discounts.

[Bx Jet Fan]

And you'll be starting a completely new product that doesn't have the NFL's 80-plus years of history and name recognition behind it.

A TV Network is not going to shell out 1.2 billion a year for a brand new league.

In order for this scheme to work the players would have to be getting paid MORE than they are getting or will get in the future. The reality is that nobody's got pockets remotely that deep in the current economic climate.

It's not a new product, it's the EXACT same product. People follow the team, I agree, but if the ENTIRE team migrated to a new network there is no debating which team America would watch.

About your point about the players needing more I disagree. Right now the owners want to reduce the players pay by 18%. If they dont accept it they get locked out and make NOTHING. If they moved to NBC they don't lose anything.

[Klecko73isGod]

When I edited my post I left that part out. I'm sure there would be a lost year. All that couldn't get done on the fly.

But there would be a demand for viewing those players so there will be potential owners as well as networks willing to cough up money.

It could be done. The reason it's failed in the past, in the end, was because of the lack of sustained fan interest. If all the great players were there rather than in the NFL the fan interest would shift as the NFL would instead be the unsustainable league. Want to take it one step further? Then after NFL teams go out of business the new USFL or whatever gets to buy current NFL stadiums at super discounts.

But that's exactly why there's no chance of it happening.

That one year would give the NFL and NFLPA a year to negotiate and iron out their differences with the infrastructure already in place.

[Bx Jet Fan]

Nobody's got pockets that deep.

They don't have to be deep. The post of mine just showed how just 2 sources of revenue covered last years salaries. Add in all the other revenue streams and Wall Street would be lining up investors to get a piece of this.

[Sperm Edwards]

But that's exactly why there's no chance of it happening.

That one year would give the NFL and NFLPA a year to negotiate and iron out their differences with the infrastructure already in place.

Either way the problem is solved.

[Bx Jet Fan]

Sperm, I think the NFLPA could get some sort of an agreement in place within a year.

Really, what is the biggest stumbling block? The Stadiums? Jets/Giants play at Citi for a few years until a new stadium is ironed out. Tell me the Wilpons don't need money.

TN played at Vandy till their stadium was done. I'm sure every team in the league could find a place to play.

[PFSIKH]

Average ticket=$100.00

10 Games @80,000 people=800,000

800,000x100=80,000,000

80,000,000x32 teams= $2.56 Billion

2.56 Bil + 1.2 Bil =3.76 Billion

Last years cap @127mil x 32 teams = $3.74 Billion.

Get a guy with deep pockets and it could work.

You have a flaw in your revenue stream.

Only 3 current stadiums have 80K seating. 15 stadiums are under 70K. Could each city support 80K? Probably, but the ticket demand would not be as great as the waiting lists started to get exhausted.

BTW Vandy's stadium has no amenities worth mentioning.

When I edited my post I left that part out. I'm sure there would be a lost year. All that couldn't get done on the fly.

But there would be a demand for viewing those players so there will be potential owners as well as networks willing to cough up money.

It could be done. The reason it's failed in the past, in the end, was because of the lack of sustained fan interest. If all the great players were there rather than in the NFL the fan interest would shift as the NFL would instead be the unsustainable league. Want to take it one step further? Then after NFL teams go out of business the new USFL or whatever gets to buy current NFL stadiums at super discounts.

I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale as well.

Sperm there is no way in hell it can be done. They say never say never, but it will never happen.

While the NFL players are the commodity, not every player has a 100 million contract in the bank like Peyton. Or 60-100 like Tom and others. The median salary is 700K. With the average salary starting at 285K, the NFL owners will just wait them out. Players with big houses who have not earned that first fat pay check will cross.

While, Peyton and Brady would be great players to market the new league around, not all stars are going to cross. The only way it happens is if the top 40 billionaires on the Forbes list pooled all their money together and bought the entire league as is and that is never going to happen. It only works if there is no NFL and the owners are too smart to allow that to happen.

Without the same revenue stream, the new league is going to struggle to lure players away from the NFL because in the end, when Jake Locker is choosing between the NFL and new league, the NFL is going to win those battles. It worked for the AFL because the field was level. It failed for the USFL because for every Trump, there were 5 owners that just wanted to own a football team. Today, the NFL is too huge.

The best chance for the death of the NFL is for the top teams (Dallas, NY(x2), New England, etc.) to separate from the bottom third, half and take the NFL trademark with them. Even then it will cost a pretty penny to buy the rest out and is not going to happen.

[Bx Jet Fan]

You have a flaw in your revenue stream.

Only 3 current stadiums have 80K seating. 15 stadiums are under 70K. Could each city support 80K? Probably, but the ticket demand would not be as great as the waiting lists started to get exhausted.

BTW Vandy's stadium has no amenities worth mentioning.

Fish, this isn't a thesis I spent 6 months working on, I banged it out in 30 seconds. Drop the average attendance down to 70K per team and now the shortfall that has to be made up is 100 million a year. And that was with showing just TWO of the revenue streams that are available to a new league.

I mentioned Vandy as an example just to show that teams have options to play somewhere else. There is no way a guy like Jerry Jones would allow the renamed Cowboys to play in his new palace. But I am sure that they could find a new home. They just have to play somewhere else for 3 years until Jerry goes broke and buy it for 30 cents on the dollar.

[Sperm Edwards]

Sperm, I think the NFLPA could get some sort of an agreement in place within a year.

Really, what is the biggest stumbling block? The Stadiums? Jets/Giants play at Citi for a few years until a new stadium is ironed out. Tell me the Wilpons don't need money.

TN played at Vandy till their stadium was done. I'm sure every team in the league could find a place to play.

I don't think venues would be a stumbling block at all.

I hope they do iron stuff out. Would hate to have to trash my Jets gear and get new stuff that says The New York Bloombergs on it.

[nycdan]

I think venues would be an enormous problem if they tried to do this quickly for a whole host of reasons I can't even begin to list. Take NYC for example. What stadium within reasonable distance can host Jets and Giants games that's available 16 Sundays in a row plus possible playoff games?

Also, you'll have the interesting problem of drafting college players. The NFL owners, with their TV contract still locked in, and no huge salaries on their payroll, will probably be easily able to outbid a startup league that is probably struggling to break even. Then, when player salaries are down, maybe more than the 18% being talked about now, because revenues can't even come close in the new league, there will be inevitable crossing over back to the old NFL. Too much risk I would think.

Everyone agrees, the goose is worth a LOT more alive and laying eggs than dead on the dinner table. Unfortunately, ego and emotion on both sides are very likely going to lead us to a meal of cooked goose.

[Bx Jet Fan]

Dan, the Mets play a total of 6 games at home Aug thru Oct. MLB would have a year to do schedules. I don't see that as an insurmountable problem.

[nycdan]

Dan, the Mets play a total of 6 games at home Aug thru Oct. MLB would have a year to do schedules. I don't see that as an insurmountable problem.

I have no idea about

a) how suitable Citifield is for football (not always a sure thing)

what concerts or other events are already scheduled

c) if they put the Jets back on L.I. even for one game, the world wouldn't come to an end.

What I do know...

d) Mets playoff games probably aren't going to be an issue

[PFSIKH]

Fish, this isn't a thesis I spent 6 months working on, I banged it out in 30 seconds. Drop the average attendance down to 70K per team and now the shortfall that has to be made up is 100 million a year. And that was with showing just TWO of the revenue streams that are available to a new league.

I mentioned Vandy as an example just to show that teams have options to play somewhere else. There is no way a guy like Jerry Jones would allow the renamed Cowboys to play in his new palace. But I am sure that they could find a new home. They just have to play somewhere else for 3 years until Jerry goes broke and buy it for 30 cents on the dollar.

Sorry for the sharp shooting.

All I am saying is the belief that a new league can just take over is ludicrous.

While all the NFL teams probably have suitable college stadiums near, they are not NFL size stadiums for the most part. Vandy has under 40K. BC and UCONN's are around 42-45K I believe. The faux Jets can play at Rutgers 52K.

How are you going to win in a bidding war every year at draft time with 60-75% of the seating capacity? How are you going to pay Peyton's salary? Tom's salary? It will difficult to pay the median salary much less 10 million per year salary.

How many players are going to take one for the team?

Who is going to fund the 'other' players to ensure they do not cross the picket line? During the last strike, 89 players crossed the picket line before the first scab game was played. Some of these were notable players and in theory they should have some money.

It took a month with one missed game for the players to crumble last time. Maybe, if they were banking all their income since they could survive, but my guess they have only been pooling their cash since 2006 when this started.

Who covers the cost of litigation? How long will litigation last and delay the start of the league? The NFL could field 32 teams within a week. The NFL might have diminished revenue, but they will have some. What about the 1500+ NFL players?

The only way the scenario works is if the NFL does not exist. It does exist and is not weak like the NHL was during their strike a few years back. And it somehow survived.

[Sperm Edwards]

Sorry for the sharp shooting.

All I am saying is the belief that a new league can just take over is ludicrous.

While all the NFL teams probably have suitable college stadiums near, they are not NFL size stadiums for the most part. Vandy has under 40K. BC and UCONN's are around 42-45K I believe. The faux Jets can play at Rutgers 52K.

How are you going to win in a bidding war every year at draft time with 60-75% of the seating capacity? How are you going to pay Peyton's salary? Tom's salary? It will difficult to pay the median salary much less 10 million per year salary.

How many players are going to take one for the team?

Who is going to fund the 'other' players to ensure they do not cross the picket line? During the last strike, 89 players crossed the picket line before the first scab game was played. Some of these were notable players and in theory they should have some money.

It took a month with one missed game for the players to crumble last time. Maybe, if they were banking all their income since they could survive, but my guess they have only been pooling their cash since 2006 when this started.

Who covers the cost of litigation? How long will litigation last and delay the start of the league? The NFL could field 32 teams within a week. The NFL might have diminished revenue, but they will have some. What about the 1500+ NFL players?

The only way the scenario works is if the NFL does not exist. It does exist and is not weak like the NHL was during their strike a few years back. And it somehow survived.

Never know how things could turn out. If the players got a higher percentage of TV revenue that would more than cover it. Plenty of games aren't sold out as it is and the NFL makes its billions from TV and gear more than the extra 20,000 seats on average (if it even came to that nationwide). If every regular-season game played was to capacity for 20 games (if there are still 4 fully-paid preseason games) that's about $12M per team per season of shared revenue if there are 32 new teams. Now that's not nothing, but it would still leave enough revenue out there for investors to be very interested.

Then there's that other thing: before long, the cost of owning many NFL stadiums would be unsustainable by their current owners and could/would be sold and then used by a new football league for its games.

ALL of this is ridiculously unlikely, to say nothing as to just how much less likely this is than a new CBA getting hammered out. But it is both possible and doable under the right circumstances. There are still some billionaires and groups of multi-millionaires out there that need investments and like football.

[PFSIKH]

Never know how things could turn out. If the players got a higher percentage of TV revenue that would more than cover it. Plenty of games aren't sold out as it is and the NFL makes its billions from TV and gear more than the extra 20,000 seats on average (if it even came to that nationwide). If every regular-season game played was to capacity for 20 games (if there are still 4 fully-paid preseason games) that's about $12M per team per season of shared revenue if there are 32 new teams. Now that's not nothing, but it would still leave enough revenue out there for investors to be very interested.

Then there's that other thing: before long, the cost of owning many NFL stadiums would be unsustainable by their current owners and could/would be sold and then used by a new football league for its games.

ALL of this is ridiculously unlikely, to say nothing as to just how much less likely this is than a new CBA getting hammered out. But it is both possible and doable under the right circumstances. There are still some billionaires and groups of multi-millionaires out there that need investments and like football.

Yeah and Scarlet Johanson might show up at my door tonight.

Sperm we will have to agree to disagree.

-If the players get a majority of the TV revenue.

-If the owners are forced to sell their stadiums.

Mighty big "ifs" and the smart people at CBS, NBC, Fox and ESPN (and their sponsors) are not going to risk billions to take a chance on a flier league.

Nor would I expect the billionaires and 100s millionaires you would need to fund this new league to take a chance.

Especially, a league that cannot guarantee all the players. Cannot guarantee all the stadiums. Cannot even guarantee a steady tv revenue stream. In which the plan is to win a war of attrition with the NFL.

Yes, there are plenty of rich people that would love a piece of the football pie. However, they do not want risk billions trying to take down the NFL in order to get that piece of pie. Or there would have been more legitimate threats to the NFL by upstart leagues over the past 24 years since the USFL died. MLB, NBA and NHL did not even get threatened in their past CBA problems. You expect the NFL to fall victim?

Short of a some sort of anti-trust ruling that forces the break-up of the NFL as we know it, there is no chance a league will challenge the NFL. None.

[Bugg]

It's not a new product, it's the EXACT same product. People follow the team, I agree, but if the ENTIRE team migrated to a new network there is no debating which team America would watch.

About your point about the players needing more I disagree. Right now the owners want to reduce the players pay by 18%. If they dont accept it they get locked out and make NOTHING. If they moved to NBC they don't lose anything.

There is not going to be a new league. The networks do not want to piss off the NFL. NBC would've had Sunday Night Football a whole bunch sooner but for taking on the XFL. And the players with finite careers are never going to be united enough to jump together. And who wants to lead that childrens' crusade and get blackballed like John Mackey when it fails?

Recall as per the USFL case the NFL is legally a monopoly. The wound up paying the USFL a whopping $3. Donald Trump has never cashed that check. When the NFLPA has tried to field striek teams that failed too. You may think as I do Vince MacMahon is a tool, but he is also a great businessman and knows television. But he had the backing of NBC and still the XFL failed. Only a dope would try to go against the NFL based on that track record of competing leagues.

may be pro football is "the same product".But that 80 years and tradition and stadium deals and TV network and marketing relationships means a competitor is going to lose money for as far as the eye can see.

[Sperm Edwards]

Yeah and Scarlet Johanson might show up at my door tonight.

Sperm we will have to agree to disagree.

-If the players get a majority of the TV revenue.

-If the owners are forced to sell their stadiums.

Mighty big "ifs" and the smart people at CBS, NBC, Fox and ESPN (and their sponsors) are not going to risk billions to take a chance on a flier league.

Nor would I expect the billionaires and 100s millionaires you would need to fund this new league to take a chance.

Especially, a league that cannot guarantee all the players. Cannot guarantee all the stadiums. Cannot even guarantee a steady tv revenue stream. In which the plan is to win a war of attrition with the NFL.

Yes, there are plenty of rich people that would love a piece of the football pie. However, they do not want risk billions trying to take down the NFL in order to get that piece of pie. Or there would have been more legitimate threats to the NFL by upstart leagues over the past 24 years since the USFL died. MLB, NBA and NHL did not even get threatened in their past CBA problems. You expect the NFL to fall victim?

Short of a some sort of anti-trust ruling that forces the break-up of the NFL as we know it, there is no chance a league will challenge the NFL. None.

I never suggested it was likely at all (you must have glossed over where I wrote "all of this is ridiculously unlikely"). Only that it is possible. If it's possible for a couple of different leagues to launch while the NFL players are not on strike, it's possible - and more likely to succeed - when they are on strike.

Also restating a couple of "ifs" as though they were isolated things that I actually said is weak. I didn't suggest any majority/minority breakdown of revenues as an "if" since I had formed no opinion on it other than greater than what the top offer is currently from the NFL owners. Also regarding stadium sales. The "if" would be "if" the thousand or so most-talented players weren't in the NFL anymore. Wouldn't be as big of an "if" in that case as the revenue generated to operate a venue like that would be dried up.

It would take a group of people wanting to do a start-up league (a la USFL/XFL) at the same time there is a work stoppage in the NFL. That hasn't happened, and it's supremely unlikely to happen, but it certainly could in the right circumstances and time window.

I've seen enough "it could never happen" things come true in my life to say "never" about many things. That doesn't mean I think it will happen or that I think there is anything resembling even a poor chance that it will; I was just going with an idea slats brought up, and in the absence of football topics went further with it.

What do I think is definitely going to happen? There will just be the NFL and nothing else. That is my desire, and that is what will be. Didn't know anyone would need to spell that out as a disclaimer to every post.

No one thinks anything other than the continuation of the NFL is going to happen. Take a pill.

[Greensince69]

We have many things here that people are not considering here and thinking of starting a new league is just plain silly.

1) Owners do deserve to make some money. If your franchise is worth 1 bil dollars then it should be reasonable to bring in from 50