Yankees Top 20 Prospects

[Morrissey]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/15/1878701/new-york-yankees-top-20-prospects-for-2011#storyjump

New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2011

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

1) Jesus Montero, C, Grade A: No one will care much about the glove in five years.

2) Gary Sanchez, C, Grade B+: Could be Montero with a better glove.

3) Dellin Betances, RHP, Grade B+: Want to see a full year in the high minors but his recovery was very impressive.

4) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade B: Smooth as silk delivery with plus stuff, might bump him up to B+.

5) Hector Noesi, RHP, Grade B: Love the control+velocity combo.

6) Andrew Brackman, RHP, Grade B-: Made a lot of progress, could end up as a Grade B by book time.

7) Ivan Nova, RHP, Grade B-: Looks like a competent fourth starter to me.

8) Austin Romine, C, Grade B-: He's a good prospect but I don't see him as a future star.

9) Slade Heathcott, OF, Grade B-: I respect the tools enough to go with this grade, but he needs a lot of polish.

10) Adam Warren, RHP, Grade B-: One of several interesting pitchers who could be good fourth starters.

11) Graham Stoneburner, RHP, Grade B-: I don't understand why this guy doesn't get more attention. Good stuff, good performance.

12) David Phelps, RHP, Grade B-: Another strike-thrower who should be able to eat innings.

13) Eduardo Nunez, SS, Grade C+: Good speed, makes contact, but looks more like a utility guy to me than a regular.

14) Brandon Laird, 3B, Grade C+: I like the power, but discipline is sketchy and where does he fit?

15) David Adams, 2B, Grade C+: Can hit if healthy.

16) J.R. Murphy, C, Grade C+: More young catching depth but needs a lot of polish with the glove, bat should improve.

17) Corban Joseph, 2B, Grade C+: Another second base option with a nice bat.

18) Cito Culver, SS, Grade C+: I know the Yankees love him, and he has a high ceiling, but a long way off and lots of risk.

19) Brett Marshall, RHP, Grade C+: Tommy John survivor must be watched closely.

20) Jose A. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm with some breakthrough potential.

21) Angelo Gumbs, OF, Grade C+: Great tools, raw.

OTHERS OF NOTE: Sean Black, RHP; Kelvin De Leon, OF; Gabe Encinas, RHP; Robert Fish, LHP; Ramon Flores, OF; Ben Gamel, OF; Shaeffer Hall, LHP; Tommy Kahnle, RHP; Melky Mesa, OF; Bryan Mitchell, RHP; D.J. Mitchell, RHP; Evan Rutckyj, LHP; Rob Segedin, 3B: Dan Turpen, RHP; Chase Whitley, RHP; Mason Williams, OF.

This system has two excellent hitters at the top, but thins out quickly in position players with impact potential after that. The pitching is quite rich; I count eight guys with the ability to hold rotation spots at the major league level, including a couple of potential anchors, and there are more arms behind them.

The system has some toolsy outfielders and some interesting catchers past Montero and Sanchez, but could use additional depth. Overall, though, it is a system that has a lot going for it, and if some of the sleepers from the '10 draft pan out it can look even better next year.

[SenorGato]

Pretty deep system...a couple guys I like that aren't on the list and don't even have 2010 stats are Caleb Cotham and Wilmer Romero. Romero was one of the high profile international signings and Cotham is a Vandy pitcher with good size, mechanics, and stuff...probably a reliever now because he's had some injuries.

[Scott Dierking]

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

In other words, predicting minor league players success in the majors is near impossible.

[JetPotato]

In other words, predicting minor league players success in the majors is near impossible.

Fun to try, though

[Maxman]

Comparing the Yankees To Other Likely Top-6 Farm Systems

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm Add comments Yesterday, we learned that Jim Callis regards the Yankees as a top-6 farm system in baseball. Accompanying them are probably going to be Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and possibly two of Minnesota, Atlanta and Oakland. Among this group, how to the Yankees rank?

At the top of each organization, the Yankees probably have the best prospect. Jesus Montero’s main competition for the title probably includes Jeremy Hellickson in Tampa and the Kansas City trio of Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and Mike Moustakas. I think Montero is a pretty clear choice over that group – Hellickson is a really good prospect, but probably not a perennial all-star like Montero should be. Hosmer is a 1st baseman without a ton of power (though great at everything else), Montero will hit far better than Myers, and Moustakas is the worst player of the bunch. Montero’s your best player here.

Right below them, the Yankees rank two of Manuelos, Brackman, Sanchez, Betances, and Noesi at spots 2 and 3. No one in the group compares favorably to Kansas City’s dynamic group, led by the previously mentioned Wil Myers and Mike Moustakas. Tampa Bay’s Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore are clearly better than any of them too. However, the Yankees definitely have an edge up on Cleveland’s Alex White and Jason Kipinis, and no other system really comes close. This same advantage extends to the Yankees all the way down through their top six players. None of the teams has that kind of impact player depth in their farm system.

I really can’t judge the depth of the none-Yankee systems after that, as I’m not too familiar with the players. But I do know that the Yankees have the best group of prospects that they’ve ever had in the 8-15 rankings, headlined by guys like Slade Heathcott, Cito Culver, Brandon Laird, Adam Warren, and Graham Stoneburner. I have trouble imagining that many systems, if any, are that deep.

What’s the conclusion? The Yankees should not be ranked lower than 3rd, behind Tampa and Kansas City, in the overall organizational rankings. That would be the highest ranking that the Yankees have managed in recent memory (they ranked 5th in 2007 and 2002), and a huge step up from their 22nd overall panned ranking last season, which I think BA may regard as a mistake at this point. The Yankees do it on the backs of a whole lot of depth and Jesus Montero, who should yet again be a top-5 prospect in all of baseball. Even BA is starting to accept that Montero will stick at catcher for the time being in the majors, and everything knows how well he can hit.

Very encouraging stuff.

[SenorGato]

However, the Yankees definitely have an edge up on Cleveland’s Alex White and Jason Kipinis, and no other system really comes close.

I'd take both White and Kipnis over any non-Montero in the system. Not to mention that Pomeranz is awesome too, and I'd take him as a prospect over Manuelos.

The farm system is impressive...lots and lots of overrated guys but sh*tton of depth. I think guys like David Adams, Corban Joseph, Brett Marshall, Adam Warren, and maybe a couple others will be better players than the non-Monteros in their top 10. This is a "hey just a warning to the rest of the league: the system is coming up" year rather than the arrival of a great player development machine. Montero should be a hell of a start, maybe.

[Morrissey]

I'd take both White and Kipnis over any non-Montero in the system. Not to mention that Pomeranz is awesome too, and I'd take him as a prospect over Manuelos.

The farm system is impressive...lots and lots of overrated guys but sh*tton of depth. I think guys like David Adams, Corban Joseph, Brett Marshall, Adam Warren, and maybe a couple others will be better players than the non-Monteros in their top 10. This is a "hey just a warning to the rest of the league: the system is coming up" year rather than the arrival of a great player development machine. Montero should be a hell of a start, maybe.

you underrate the Yankee system, Manny Baluelos is one of the best left handed pitching prospect around. A overrate the Sox system.

[Bugg]

Look, I don't watch minor baseball spare a few Cyclones games.So I cannot say if any of this data is rock solid truth or Yankee propaganda; probably somewhere in between. But I ran into someone today that knows Betances very well.He has grown to 6'9", has added muscle and is expected to be totally healthy this season.

[SenorGato]

you underrate the Yankee system, Manny Baluelos is one of the best left handed pitching prospect around. A overrate the Sox system.

Was talking about the Indians in that post...

Speaking of the Sox, I think by mid-season I'll have decided I'd take Britton over Banuelos.