WR Drop Percentage

[F.Chowds]

Drop Percentage

May 23rd, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed

We’ve recently been running a series of articles, breaking down aspects of player performance, and next up we’re looking at wide receivers. Following on from an article we did last year, it seemed a good place to start would be in breaking down the drop issues wide receivers have.

Now the drop stat in itself is an interesting one. A glance can suggest which receivers have the more questionable hands in the league, but it’s not exactly fair to class all guys with 12 drops, for example, together. After all, one could have 24 receptions, and the other 124.

So in one of our simpler metric type articles, we’re bringing you our Drop Percentage for all receivers who had at least 50 catchable balls thrown their way (catchable balls determined by just adding together the number of receptions and drops).

Dependable in 2010

It’s not shocking to see that up near the top, we have a couple of guys who do most of their damage in catching shorter, underneath routes. Still, you have to give credit to Jordan Shipley and Earl Bennett for holding onto everything thrown their way. That’s the kind of dependency that should make life a lot easier for a potential rookie starter at quarterback in Cincinnati, and you would think it might make Jay Cutler seem a little less erratic.

When discussing the top receivers in a list like this, you’re never far from mentioning Larry Fitzgerald. Despite dealing with some terrible quarterback play that wasn’t just inaccurate, but would lead you into harms way often, Fitzgerald did more than you’d expect most mortals to do by dropping only three of the 90 catchable balls thrown his way. This was good enough for fourth, behind another guy who always finishes highly on this list, Kevin Walter.

Indeed, with their two best receivers in the top fifteen, you can’t argue the Texans aren’t helping out Matt Schaub in this regard. Walter has become one of the league’s most reliable targets, while Andre Johnson eliminated some of the drops that had always been a part of his game. Somehow Johnson managed to improve this season, and he did so on an injured ankle.

Elsewhere in the Top 10, you have a couple more guys who play mainly in the slot (Mike Thomas and Eddie Royal), and perhaps more surprisingly, one of the leagues’ best deep threats in 2010, Brandon Lloyd. The catches tend to be a bit harder the further downfield you go, but Lloyd displayed a previously unseen consistency to make plays on balls that you didn’t think he had any right to.

Just outside the top ten is a name that will surprise a few, Braylon Edwards. The New York Jet developed a reputation for drops after a 2008 that saw his star fall in Cleveland. He didn’t help himself with the odd terrible (but highly publicized) drop in 2009 and even now the label of a guy with bad hands sticks (every drop of his receives more press time than other top guys). Remarkable then that he only dropped four balls all year, a better rate than either of the other Jets to make this list. The ever excellent Santonio Holmes dropped eight balls and finished in 42nd, while the normally reliable Jerricho Cotchery put 10 on the ground for the third worst number in the league. Edwards’ name will come up later, making his improvement in New York all the more stark.

Wide Receivers, Top 15 Drop Percentage, 2010

Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %

1 Jordan Shipley CIN 52 0 52 0.00%

2 Earl Bennett CHI 50 0 50 0.00%

3 Kevin Walter HST 51 1 52 1.92%

4 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 90 3 93 3.23%

5 Eddie Royal DEN 59 2 61 3.28%

6 Lance Moore NO 70 3 73 4.11%

7 Mario Manningham NYG 60 3 63 4.76%

8 Brandon Lloyd DEN 77 4 81 4.94%

9 Anquan Boldin BLT 70 4 74 5.41%

10t Mike Thomas JAX 66 4 70 5.71%

10t Deion Branch NE 66 4 70 5.71%

12t Braylon Edwards NYJ 62 4 66 6.06%

12t Derrick Mason BLT 62 4 66 6.06%

14 Austin Collie IND 58 4 62 6.45%

15 Andre Johnson HST 86 6 92 6.52%

Things weren’t all good, and now we’re getting into dropping some criticism on players. While he may be as scary a deep threat as there is in the league, a one-dimensional player like DeSean Jackson never really scores that highly in our grading. You can attribute some of that to his league-leading 19.67% of drops on catchable balls – this Eagle is your vintage boom or bust receiver.

It’s more of a surprise to see Steve Smith just behind him, with injury and poor quarterback play seemingly having a huge impact on Smith’s ability to play to the level we expect from him. Given his stellar performance in recent years, you wouldn’t know how much of this was Smith being bogged down by the problems in Carolina, but it’s something for potential trade partners to consider.

Other noteworthy names near the bottom include Mike Williams of Tampa Bay. The rookie impressed many so much that his peers voted him into their top 100 players of 2011, though it does come as a surprise. He did show a tremendous ability to make plays after the catch, but with 11 drops you start to realize he’s got a way to go before he’s really earned a spot as one of the top receivers.

You could levy the same charge against Steve Johnson of Buffalo, who was capable of looking the real deal one game, and then dropping five passes the next. Consistency and concentration are key attributes of guys who finish highly in these rankings, and it would be fair to say both men could do with working on those attributes to take their already impressive games to the next level.

Wide Receivers, Bottom 15 Drop Percentage, 2010

Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %

41 Steve Smith NYG 48 6 54 11.11%

42 Santonio Holmes NYJ 61 8 69 11.59%

43 Jacoby Jones HST 51 7 58 12.07%

44 Michael Crabtree SF 55 8 63 12.70%

45 Wes Welker NE 93 14 107 13.08%

46 Brandon Marshall MIA 86 13 99 13.13%

47 Steve Johnson BUF 82 13 95 13.68%

48 Miles Austin DAL 69 11 80 13.75%

49 Jordy Nelson GB 66 11 77 14.29%

50 Steve Breaston ARZ 47 8 55 14.55%

51 Mike A. Williams TB 64 11 75 14.67%

52 Pierre Garcon IND 72 13 85 15.29%

53 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 53 10 63 15.87%

54 Steve L. Smith CAR 46 10 56 17.86%

55 DeSean Jackson PHI 49 12 61 19.67%

Looking Deeper

To get a bit further into it, I’ve pulled all the data from the last three years to see who has that consistency over a longer period. The qualifying amount of catchable balls thrown goes up to 120, and the results get more interesting.

Up front, you’ve got two of the perennial favorites in this list with the aforementioned Walter and Fitzgerald showing 2010 was no fluke. Also in the top five, Vincent Jackson shows what Philip Rivers missed last year. His ability to go down the field and make tricky catches, is something that makes him one of the most in-demand receivers, even with a franchise tag on him.

Some of the other names that should be of interest are Austin Collie up in eighth, while Pierre Garcon finished sixth from bottom. They don’t play identical roles in the Colts offense, but you can put some of Peyton Manning’s 2010 struggles on the absence of Austin Collie (as well as Dallas Clark) and extra reliance on the less dependable Garcon.

Wide Receivers, Top 10 Drop Percentage, 2008-2010

Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %

1 Kevin Walter HST 164 5 169 2.96%

2 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 325 11 336 3.27%

3 Eddie Royal DEN 187 9 196 4.59%

4 Vincent Jackson SD 150 8 158 5.06%

5 Lance Moore NO 149 8 157 5.10%

6 Jason Avant PHI 144 8 152 5.26%

7 Anquan Boldin BLT 258 15 273 5.49%

8 Austin Collie IND 135 8 143 5.59%

9 Michael Jenkins ATL 152 10 162 6.17%

10 Derrick Mason BLT 232 16 248 6.45%

Meanwhile down at the bottom you’ve got some pretty big names competing for title of “worst hands” over the past three years. It tells you about the improvements of Edwards that even though he finished just outside the Top 10 in 2010, he finished at the bottom of the three-year rankings (by and large due to those incredible 19 drops in 2008).

Wide Receivers, Bottom 10 Drop Percentage, 2008-2010

Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %

36 Santana Moss WAS 242 29 271 10.70%

37 Brandon Marshall MIA 291 37 328 11.28%

38 Nate Washington TEN 136 18 154 11.69%

39 Marques Colston NO 220 30 250 12.00%

40 Pierre Garcon IND 144 20 164 12.20%

41 DeSean Jackson PHI 187 26 213 12.21%

42 Randy Moss MIN 185 26 211 12.32%

43 Terrell Owens CIN 196 28 224 12.50%

44 Dwayne Bowe KC 205 33 238 13.87%

45 Braylon Edwards NYJ 168 29 197 14.72%

So there you have it. The numbers show some steadily good (like Walter and Fitzgerald), some steadily not-so (like Jackson), and even some capable of a huge turnaround (like Edwards). While none of it makes Walter flatly more valuable than the deep threat that is Jackson, maybe a bit more credit is due for the Texan and his role in their offense. Either way, more grist for the mill.

[Bleedin Green]

This is something a bunch of us had discussed earlier in the offseason with the Edwards / Holmes debates. It's not surprising at all for those watching and not just bashing Edwards based on his reputation, he had a really good year. It's one of the reasons that I and others want to see Edwards signed before Holmes. His hands were already clearly improved his first year with the Jets from 2008 despite the inherent issues with coming in midseason, but was given major flack anyway anytime he had a single drop. This year the guy was great and far and away had the best hands of any player on the entire team while Holmes had significantly more drops in 4 less games. While it may be contrary to his rep from his days in Cleveland, the bottom line is as of right now he's the most reliable receiver the Jets have.

[flgreen]

Agree

I think Edwards problem in Cleveland was he was very unhappy there, and just didn’t give a crap.

He’s happy here, and wants to stay. If the Jets let him go for the likes of Moss, or Holmes, I’m going to be very disappointed

[Vudu]

I'll be pissed the f-ck off if we dont resign Braylon!

[visajets]

I'll be pissed the f-ck off if we dont resign Braylon!

Me too DAMMIT.

[greeniemeanie]

I want em both back, but Braylon is a Jet. Santonio seems like more of a hired gun. Maybe it's just me?

[SenorGato]

Finally an article that calls bullsh*t on Holmes' bullsh*t last year. He was dropping passes like hotcakes for the first few weeks after his return, and no one said a thing.

[#27TheDominator]

I'll agree that Holmes had more drops than Edwards last year, but why give Braylon a pass for "joining the team mid-year" and hammer Holmes who basically did the same in 2010? Edwards is THE WORST over the 3 season period and that includes his top 10 season last year. I don't accept "he was unhappy" as a valid excuse. If Sanchez snaps a towel at his a$$ in the lockerroom and he becomes unhappy he's going to suck again.

[Bleedin Green]

I'll agree that Holmes had more drops than Edwards last year, but why give Braylon a pass for "joining the team mid-year" and hammer Holmes who basically did the same in 2010? Edwards is THE WORST over the 3 season period and that includes his top 10 season last year. I don't accept "he was unhappy" as a valid excuse. If Sanchez snaps a towel at his a$$ in the lockerroom and he becomes unhappy he's going to suck again.

Edwards was playing for another team during the regular season and then was a starting WR in a game literally days after coming onto the team. No time to study the playbook, get acquainted with the QB or anything. Holmes was with the Jets for the entire offseason and only missed four games because he's a ******* moron who got himself suspended. Not really sure how those are the same things at all. Besides, the point was even despite Edwards' situation he still showed much better hands in 09 than 08 and was fantastic in 2010. Your 3 year argument is based pretty much entirely on the fact that his hands were admittedly horrid in 2008.

But really, the point being made is actually the exact opposite of what you're saying. Hardly anyone got on Holmes this year for absolutely horrible hands and Edwards still regularly gets sh*t for it despite having a great year in that department. Why does Braylon deserve to get more crap today for his 2008 season than Holmes does for his 2010 one?

[#27TheDominator]

Edwards was playing for another team during the regular season and then was a starting WR in a game literally days after coming onto the team. No time to study the playbook, get acquainted with the QB or anything. Holmes was with the Jets for the entire offseason and only missed four games because he's a ******* moron who got himself suspended. Not really sure how those are the same things at all. Besides, the point was even despite Edwards' situation he still showed much better hands in 09 than 08 and was fantastic in 2010. Your 3 year argument is based pretty much entirely on the fact that his hands were admittedly horrid in 2008.

But really, the point being made is actually the exact opposite of what you're saying. Hardly anyone got on Holmes this year for absolutely horrible hands and Edwards still regularly gets sh*t for it despite having a great year in that department. Why does Braylon deserve to get more crap today for his 2008 season than Holmes does for his 2010 one?

Problems with your theory:

In 2009 Edwards regularly let the ball bounce off his facemask. He spit up a ton of easy slants too. Playing like a dog in 08 is not a good thing IMO. He was playing for a contract last year. He had a nice season, but that doesn't make him risk free going forward. I hardly watched the guy in Cleveland and take my impressions from the Jets.

Yes, edwards deserved some slack for coming to a new team midseason and learning a new playbook, but the single best game he had as a Jet as probably that Miami game after joining the team midweek.

Holmes "terrible" season in 2010 was considerably better than Edwards 3 year average.

Holmes did not have a great year. He had one blatant drop and that pathetic fumble. He stiil managed to win the team a couple games. These drop stats are pretty subjective anyway. It's hard to put too much stock in them.

[Bleedin Green]

These drop stats are pretty subjective anyway. It's hard to put too much stock in them.

That's a fair point I suppose, no real point in debating the numbers further. I guess my point in ever bringing it up before this article was when the original perception out there was how Holmes was this vastly superior WR, and I just never saw it that way. Holmes is a very good receiver don't get me wrong, but for all the talk of Edwards prior incidents, Holmes is the one who's a single puff away from a year off. Meanwhile the biggest criticism of Edwards (drops), Holmes was worse than him this past season. The fact is that they are two very different receivers and both have very different sets of strengths (which is why I would say to ideally keep them both, as they compliment each other well), but I saw a guy in Holmes who's a bigger risk due to potential suspension issues and likely asking for a good bit more money, getting praised up and down more than I felt was deserved, especially compared to the lack of credit given to Edwards.

I know the big thing was all of the credit he started getting for winning games for the Jets, and while he had a couple of great plays, he was also vastly over-credited in some instances. The perfect example is the Texans game. If you ask me, I'll tell you every time that Edwards was the one who won that game. The play he made was far more impressive and put the Jets in scoring position and while Holmes may've caught the ensuing touchdown, let's be blunt, he was wide open in the end zone and caught a ball that 64 starting WRs in this league would've been expected to catch every time. Of course it's all a matter of personal preference, but I also personally come away far more impressed with plays like Edwards TD against the Patriots than a lot of these others, because I feel like it shows not only ability, but you really tells you about the amount of effort and determination that player is putting in. That was probably the catch that impressed me most since Keller's 3rd and 15 play in OT against the Patriots in 2008. Frankly I hope the Jets can keep both guys as I do like them both, but if you make me choose between the two I'd take Edwards every single time.

[bitonti]

Holmes is a very good receiver don't get me wrong, but for all the talk of Edwards prior incidents, Holmes is the one who's a single puff away from a year off.

Edwards got popped for a DUI, this season. Holmes has been well behaved for longer.

[Bleedin Green]

Edwards got popped for a DUI, this season. Holmes has been well behaved for longer.

Holmes was suspended for 4 games by the NFL, Edwards was benched for 1 quarter by Rex. IF Edwards gets convicted he MIGHT get a one-game suspension (although recent history says otherwise), the first of his career. If Holmes fails another drug test he's gone for a year. I'm not saying one is a better person than the other, but strictly from a business standpoint Holmes is the bigger risk in that department. Let's not forget, Holmes has publicly stated that he has no intention to change his behavior.

[flgreen]

Holmes was suspended for 4 games by the NFL, Edwards was benched for 1 quarter by Rex. IF Edwards gets convicted he MIGHT get a one-game suspension (although recent history says otherwise), the first of his career. If Holmes fails another drug test he's gone for a year. I'm not saying one is a better person than the other, but strictly from a business standpoint Holmes is the bigger risk in that department. Let's not forget, Holmes has publicly stated that he has no intention to change his behavior.

Holmes is forgetting one thing here. What happens off the field affects if he will even be on the field. No way I would give this guy a multi-year mega contract.

It's not if he fails another drug test, it's when

Santonio Holmes: No apology needed

By Jane McManus

ESPNNewYork.com

Archive

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Rex Ryan said Santonio Holmes was at the New York Jets' practice facility at 6 a.m. Wednesday, the first day he was allowed to fully practice with the team during the regular season.

As the wide receiver served the four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, Holmes was allowed to come to the facility and attend meetings.

"Guys welcomed me every day I came in," Holmes said.

Holmes said that he has used the time to learn plays, attend meetings and work out with the team. He wouldn't play this off as a chance at redemption. In Holmes' eyes, he has nothing to atone for, and said he hadn't spent his time off trying to change.

"To look in your eyes and be honest with you, not 1 percent," Holmes said. "I've been the same person since I stepped foot in this NFL, I'll [continue] being the same person until I leave."

Holmes was as unapologetic as he was the day the Jets brought him to the team, after Pittsburgh unloaded the receiver in April despite the fact that he'd been the 2008 Super Bowl MVP. In October 2008, Holmes was cited for marijuana possession and received a one-game suspension. He could have triggered the four-game penalty with a positive or missed drug test, which happened with the Steelers. Another violation, and Holmes would face missing an entire season.

Asked if any of those things had been a wake-up call, Holmes was forthright.

"I made it to the Super Bowl and won it, didn't I?" Holmes said. "That's all I had to do with myself. I didn't have anything to think about. I'm a football player, what happens off the field happens off the field, doesn't affect anything I do or what I'm capable of doing."

Last season with Pittsburgh, Holmes had 79 receptions for 1,248 yards and and five touchdowns in 16 starts. He said that to stay focused, he had the frame of mind that he was an outcast on the Jets, even though everyone was nice enough to him at the facility.

"It's a mindset that I had to use," Holmes said, "that I'm not playing, can't think that I'm on the field yet."

During the time off, he worked out each day from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. starting with lifting and then some kind of cardio such as basketball.

"He's going to open it up even more," receiver Jerricho Cotchery said. "We're still going to do our thing as far as the running game, but another option like that on the field is tough for defenses."

LaDainian Tomlinson said he is looking to see Holmes fit into the offense, and to see if he can help the Jets on special teams with punt returns.

"Talk about a big-play threat," Tomlinson said, "Santonio has been that his whole entire career. We're excited about that; we've got some good things up for him in the game plan."

Jane McManus covers the Jets for ESPNNewYork.com.

Follow Jane McManus on Twitter: @janesports

[SenorGato]

I'll agree that Holmes had more drops than Edwards last year, but why give Braylon a pass for "joining the team mid-year" and hammer Holmes who basically did the same in 2010? Edwards is THE WORST over the 3 season period and that includes his top 10 season last year. I don't accept "he was unhappy" as a valid excuse. If Sanchez snaps a towel at his a$$ in the lockerroom and he becomes unhappy he's going to suck again.

Possibly, but if that happens 3-4 years from now and he was awesome the whole time then it doesn't really matter. WRs are like that because one day it hits them that it's all about the QB, I think. That goes for either guy, since Holmes has plenty of "will he act out" question marks. He did join the team mid-season because he got himself suspended.

Either one can/will be that #1 guy for Sanchez. Holmes is probably the better pure WR.

[sirlancemehlot]

If this is a Holmes vs. Edwards debate then you have to give it to Braylon. While both are valuable receivers, Edwards is a top-five blocking WR while Holmes is mediocre at best. With a run-first aproach, having a big body out there stalk-blocking is an extremely valuable atribute. Also, I'll never get over Holmes running into the back of Edwards a nd fumbling when he had a perfect block and open field ahead of him. Just awful.

[SenorGato]

If this is a Holmes vs. Edwards debate then you have to give it to Braylon. While both are valuable receivers, Edwards is a top-five blocking WR while Holmes is mediocre at best. With a run-first aproach, having a big body out there stalk-blocking is an extremely valuable atribute. Also, I'll never get over Holmes running into the back of Edwards a nd fumbling when he had a perfect block and open field ahead of him. Just awful.

We're probably only so run heavy because the QB is so young. I expect as Sanchez improves that we'll lean pass like every other good offense.

That said, that play in Denver was the single dumbest play I've ever seen a WR make.

[Sperm Edwards]

Problems with your theory:

In 2009 Edwards regularly let the ball bounce off his facemask. He spit up a ton of easy slants too. Playing like a dog in 08 is not a good thing IMO. He was playing for a contract last year. He had a nice season, but that doesn't make him risk free going forward. I hardly watched the guy in Cleveland and take my impressions from the Jets.

Yes, edwards deserved some slack for coming to a new team midseason and learning a new playbook, but the single best game he had as a Jet as probably that Miami game after joining the team midweek.

Holmes "terrible" season in 2010 was considerably better than Edwards 3 year average.

Holmes did not have a great year. He had one blatant drop and that pathetic fumble. He stiil managed to win the team a couple games. These drop stats are pretty subjective anyway. It's hard to put too much stock in them.

I hear ya, but along that same line of thinking its's just as likely (if not more so) that Holmes only kept out of trouble because he was in acontract year also (since few probably thought or think any new CBA would allow a team to RFA tag him again). So he kept out f trouble for one year (his airplane incident notwithstanding). And even though he didnt really do anything "bad" on the plane, some guys just can't stay incident-free.

Then again, Edwards hasn't exactly been the poster child for perfect behavior himself.