Draft Question concerning the DE/OLB class

[Stonehands]

This draft seems to have either physical freaks like Jordan, Ziggy and Mingo who put up pretty mediocre college production numbers or guys like Jones and Moore who put up big numbers, but don't appear to be ahtletic enough to be game changers in the pros. 

 

So, why isn't Bjorn Warner considered in front of all these guys or a viable choice at number 9?  He seems to be the perfect combination of productive college player and a guy who is athletic enough to have even more upside in the pros.

[bitonti]

as peter king mentioned today, Werner could go anywhere from 6 to 26. His athleticism isn't completely freakish. He's a good athlete not a great one. 4.83 40 at that weight isn't special. He's not really a fit in linebacker schemes. Despite his "gritty" exterior, Werner is actually a bit of a bum on backside pursuit. If it's not going his way he's not relentless. Mingo is a much harder worker on tape than Werner. all this being said I see him as a Tuck replacement for the Giants at 19 or there abouts.  He's not Chris Long relentless type of guy. He's a hot cold 4-3 DE. and btw his production with Tank Carridine on the other side and his production without Tank on the field are vastly different. 

[BroadwayJoe12]

Bit covered it pretty well.  He has a great first step, but I don't see any way he flourishes outside of playing with his hand in the dirt.  I think some teams are really going to be disappointed if they draft him to play OLB and expect immediate contribution.  I kind of feel the same way about Ansah, as I'm not sure how well he can play in space either.  Mingo and especially Jordan I'd have zero problem with them playing in space, however they'll both still need to be brought along slowly as you don't just throw anyone to the wolves in their first few games.  All it takes is a few games for them to be repeatedly smacked in the mouth on the reverse side of that counter to start really hating it down their with the big boys and start to dog it.

[Stonehands]

as peter king mentioned today, Werner could go anywhere from 6 to 26. His athleticism isn't completely freakish. He's a good athlete not a great one. 4.83 40 at that weight isn't special. He's not really a fit in linebacker schemes. Despite his "gritty" exterior, Werner is actually a bit of a bum on backside pursuit. If it's not going his way he's not relentless. Mingo is a much harder worker on tape than Werner. all this being said I see him as a Tuck replacement for the Giants at 19 or there abouts.  He's not Chris Long relentless type of guy. He's a hot cold 4-3 DE. and btw his production with Tank Carridine on the other side and his production without Tank on the field are vastly different. 

Thanks.

[SenorGato]

Werner would be a steal at 9, I think. The only reason he would fall to 9 is because he ran a 4.8.

[bitonti]

Werner would be a steal at 9, I think. The only reason he would fall to 9 is because he ran a 4.8.

 

it's not just the 40. none of his workout aspects were among the best at his position. 

[SenorGato]

it's not just the 40. none of his workout aspects were among the best at his position.

 

25 reps is good THO. He also did well at his pro day in linebacker drills.

To me the guys to get at 9 will be Mingo or Werner if they want defense.

[bitonti]

25 reps is good THO.

To me the guys to get at 9 will be Mingo or Werner if they want defense.

 

i had werner at 9 after FSU pro day and while it could happen it's been a long time since Werner was considered in any1's top 10. 

[BroadwayJoe12]

25 reps is good THO.

To me the guys to get at 9 will be Mingo or Werner if they want defense.

 

I've been a big Mingo supporter for a while, but I just am not sure I can see him here in Rex's defense playing as light as he does.  I for sure think he has the athleticism to play in space as an OLB, but just not sure he has the size to withstand the beating he'd take here.  I guess that point is moot if Rex isn't here next  year, at which point I say draft him as talent-wise he'd be a steal at 9 for just about any other system.

[BroadwayJoe12]

i had werner at 9 after FSU pro day and while it could happen it's been a long time since Werner was considered in any1's top 10. 

 

Werner is a tough read.  I think he has the first step to be a terror off the corner and is pretty decent at setting the edge, but then there's a part of me that saw his somewhat lack of overall athleticism and fluidity and wonder if he'd just be better off with his hand in the dirt as opposed to playing in space as an OLB.  This draft is so fluid at the top in reference to who goes where; i'm sure we could list the players who will go top 10, but I think the order of them is up for grabs right now.

[bitonti]

I've been a big Mingo supporter for a while, but I just am not sure I can see him here in Rex's defense playing as light as he does.  I for sure think he has the athleticism to play in space as an OLB, but just not sure he has the size to withstand the beating he'd take here.  I guess that point is moot if Rex isn't here next  year, at which point I say draft him as talent-wise he'd be a steal at 9 for just about any other system.

 

I agree that Mingo is a steal at 9, because he could go 2-8 easily based on his freakish agility workouts and intangibles. it worries me that he's light and didn't bench but those seem like problems a professional strength program can solve. 

[SenorGato]

I thought Werner was an excellent athlete in games last year. I was surprised as I thought he was overhyped coming into the season.

 

Mingo's frame was my knock on him going into the season, he got a little bigger, but yeah he easily could use at least 10-15 pounds if not 20.

[bitonti]

  This draft is so fluid at the top in reference to who goes where; i'm sure we could list the players who will go top 10, but I think the order of them is up for grabs right now.

 

the way I have top 10 brewing is Joeckel, Fisher, Floyd, Star, Jordan, Ansah,  Dee Milliner, Mingo, Lane Johnson and Chance. Pretty much in that order.  Geno Smith is obviously the wildcard but his grades are all over the place and i could see a team picking him in the 20's this draft. (Jets would pass unless they somehow traded Sanchez)

 

Others who could go top 10 include Cordarrelle, Tavon, Jon Cooper. Maybe Desmond Trufant, Sheldon Richardson as long shots. 

[sirlancemehlot]

crap, I asked the same question in another thread before reading this topic.  Werner has been dropping (or has he?  Smoke and mirrors time is now, pre-draft) for no good reason.  His production has been good to excellent and he shows athleticism on tape, without question.  He is listed as top 2 in Lindy's (february), top 5 in USA Today Sports NFL DRAFT 2013 (February) and top 6 in Pro Football Draft (January).  Now you're seeing mid to even late 1st round projections, and he's done nothing to "hurt" his draft stock.  The only knock i've seen is that he "takes plays off", but i've seen many other analysts state he's all-motor.  Regardless, he had 13 sacks as a junior (last year) and has been beastly.  An apples to apples comparison between him and Mingo puts Werner way out ahead in production, size and versatility, with Mingo edging him out in pure athleticism (Aaron Maybin, anyone?).  I think Werner goes top ten, and has more success than the other pass rusher-types outside of maybe Jarvis Jones, (or D. Moore if he gets his flabby ass into a weight room).  Werner has fewer red flags than Moore or Jones and, again, excellent production.  i just cant see the reason for the fall.

[sirlancemehlot]

the way I have top 10 brewing is Joeckel, Fisher, Floyd, Star, Jordan, Ansah,  Dee Milliner, Mingo, Lane Johnson and Chance. Pretty much in that order.  Geno Smith is obviously the wildcard but his grades are all over the place and i could see a team picking him in the 20's this draft. (Jets would pass unless they somehow traded Sanchez)

 

Others who could go top 10 include Cordarrelle, Tavon, Jon Cooper. Maybe Desmond Trufant, Sheldon Richardson as long shots. 

Jeockel, Fisher, Floyd, Star...pretty much locks to be special NFL players.  Jordan, Ansah, Milliner, Johnson are risk/reward guys, especially Ansah who is raw with huge upside.  Warmack, to me, fits in with the 1st 4 mentioned, a lock to be special, which would be a great value at #9, even though his position is not generally seen as an "impact" position.  If a bust pops out, it'll be in the Jordan, Ansah, Milliner, Johnson group.  Throw Mingo into that risk/reward group as well IMO.

[BurnleyJet]

Personally I'd like us to Trade out of 9 Pick two offensive Players, and get Margus Hunt later, if we want freakish Athletics.

[Stonehands]

When I see Mingo, I think of Manny Lawson and cringe.  I see Warner as Ryan Kerrigan.

[flgreen]

Personally I'd like us to Trade out of 9 Pick two offensive Players, and get Margus Hunt later, if we want freakish Athletics.

I agree, but like the Gholston draft it is going to be hell trading out of there

[#27TheDominator]

Personally I'd like us to Trade out of 9 Pick two offensive Players, and get Margus Hunt later, if we want freakish Athletics.

 

 

I probably like Margus Hunt as much as anybody, but how does he fit in here?  He's not going to be an OLB.  Doesn't he kind of fill the same role as Coples?

[bitonti]

  Werner has fewer red flags than Moore or Jones and, again, excellent production.  i just cant see the reason for the fall.

 

you are comparing him to 2 guys who might not even be in the first round. the question we have to ask is how does he compare to Mingo and Jordan. 

[sirlancemehlot]

Jordan was an accidental omission, and may, in fact,  be the better prospect of the two, though not by a ton.  On the other hand, He may be a tweener type and doesn't have Werner's thickness and power, not to mention having 5-1/2 sacks to Werner's 11-1/2.  He also has that recurring shoulder issue and needs surgery for the torn labrum.  I actually did compare him to Mingo above:

" An apples to apples comparison between him and Mingo puts Werner way out ahead in production, size and versatility, with Mingo edging him out in pure athleticism (Aaron Maybin, anyone?). "

 

So, again, if he was top 6 in three separate NFL Draft publications less than three months ago, what the heck happened?

[T0mShane]

Werner is one of those guys that get drafted by the Steelers or Ravens, then everyone else in the league says "oh sh*t."

[BroadwayJoe12]

Jordan was an accidental omission, and may, in fact, be the better prospect of the two, though not by a ton. On the other hand, He may be a tweener type and doesn't have Werner's thickness and power, not to mention having 5-1/2 sacks to Werner's 11-1/2. He also has that recurring shoulder issue and needs surgery for the torn labrum. I actually did compare him to Mingo above:

" An apples to apples comparison between him and Mingo puts Werner way out ahead in production, size and versatility, with Mingo edging him out in pure athleticism (Aaron Maybin, anyone?). "

So, again, if he was top 6 in three separate NFL Draft publications less than three months ago, what the heck happened?

I would venture a guess the same thing that happened to damontre and those guys: they're highly touted by the draftnick community throughout the year and their falling down draft boards has more to do with where scouts actually rank them and very little to do with the draftnicks souring on them.

[bitonti]

So, again, if he was top 6 in three separate NFL Draft publications less than three months ago, what the heck happened?

 

the combine happened. If Werner runs 4.6 he stays in the top 6. He didn't. Jordan, Mingo and Ansah did and that's why they will likely go higher than Werner. 

 

What TS says is true playoff teams get guys like Werner and Jarvis Jones because scouting is driven by athletic upside. Maybe it's a wrong way to draft but it's also the way it goes. the NFL draft is riddled with dumb decisions in hindsight. Everyone wants speed and not many GM's have the balls to make a huge reach in the top 10. 

 

if Tavon Austin goes top 10 it will be because of speed. 

[SenorGato]

I would venture a guess the same thing that happened to damontre and those guys: they're highly touted by the draftnick community throughout the year and their falling down draft boards has more to do with where scouts actually rank them and very little to do with the draftnicks souring on them.

 

.Werner is more of a legitimate top guy than that. He's easily in the conversation for best defensive player over the past two seasons in CFB. 

 

He also opened the season in the low-mid 250's IIRC after playing 2011 in the high 260s/low 270s. Could have tried to bulk up or something...who knows.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-des-bjoern-werner-and-damontre-moore

 

Great piece on his game. 

[Villain The Foe]

This draft seems to have either physical freaks like Jordan, Ziggy and Mingo who put up pretty mediocre college production numbers or guys like Jones and Moore who put up big numbers, but don't appear to be ahtletic enough to be game changers in the pros. 

 

So, why isn't Bjorn Warner considered in front of all these guys or a viable choice at number 9?  He seems to be the perfect combination of productive college player and a guy who is athletic enough to have even more upside in the pros.

Because experts are wrong most of the time?