Running the ball

[whodeawhodat]

I swear I stepped into bizzaro world here the last 2 days.  never in my life have I heard knowledgble fans talk put so little stock in being able to run the football.   To hear smart posters talk about not running the football because some teams have good run defenses doesnt mean you pass the ball just so you are ready to pass against a good run defense.  This is even MORE true with our beloved jets.  the team with a rookie QB who most of us agree would do better not starting right now and a WR core that most of us would agree leave us near the bottom of the league in talent.  Our QB needs some time to get the mechanics of the game under his belt, the time to run the ball is right meow!

[GKnight83]

Marty is a pass first guy...just saying.

[bitonti]

i dont understand how Geno improves his passing mechanics by handing the ball off. 

[flgreen]

My goodness, is this argument going to go on in two threads?

 

Bit's in his glory 

[cr726]

i dont understand how Geno improves his passing mechanics by handing the ball off.

What does he do at practice????

[jbone]

i dont understand how Geno improves his passing mechanics by handing the ball off. 

So you think the only way to learn is to throw the ball every single time then?

 

I'm sold. Let's do it.

[bitonti]

So you think the only way to learn is to throw the ball every single time then?

 

I'm sold. Let's do it.

 

 

the original poster said running the ball more would help Geno's "game mechanics" I think that statement can be expanded upon. 

[JiFtheOracle]

"Running the ball is a gimmick."

 

- Bitonti

[#27TheDominator]

Marty is a pass first guy...just saying.

 

It's not enough.  The Wrecks Ryan Error wants to run the ball. Too little too late.

[JoeKlecko]

the original poster said running the ball more would help Geno's "game mechanics" I think that statement can be expanded upon. 

 

I read that post as meaning that by running the ball more, Geno would feel less pressure and wouldn't be reinforcing his bad habits/fundamentals as much, and could continue to work on those in practice.

[JoeKlecko]

"Running the ball is a gimmick."

 

- Bitonti

 

That's a classic and should be pinned so no one who reads this site will ever miss or forget it!!!

[bitonti]

That's a classic and should be pinned so no one who reads this site will ever miss or forget it!!!

 

You guys seem awful eager to go back to a tactic that was an absolute failure last year  

The only way to win in this league is to pass. Look at the Vikings have the best RB in the game and 0-2. The titans have the most rushing attempts in the league and can't beat good teams.

 

Or how about the Texans with Foster and a great OL still it's Deandre Hopkins who won that game last week. 

Running the football is dead in 2013 NFL. Don't get mad at me, I don't make the rules. 

[Greenseed4]

[whodeawhodat]

My goodness, is this argument going to go on in two threads?

 

Bit's in his glory 

 

It truely does deserve its own thread.  As the Jets have gone from never pass the ball(groundz and poundz) to never run the ball, it is just a majestic moment.

 

I read that post as meaning that by running the ball more, Geno would feel less pressure and wouldn't be reinforcing his bad habits/fundamentals as much, and could continue to work on those in practice.

^^^This guy gets it

 

"Running the ball is a gimmick."

 

- Bitonti

I never thought I would see that statment on its own.  Maybe "running the Air Raid" or "running the wildcat" is a gimmick but to say that controlling the line of scrimage and the clock is a gimmick just isnt right. 

 

I think Max called Bit yesterday and their conversation went as such:

Max: your stance for the foreseeable future is that running the football is not needed when breaking in a rookie QB.

Bit: WHAT????  They are all going to laugh at me...

Max: aaaaannnndddd???

Bit: But they have one of the worst WR corps in the NFL, of course they should rely on the run game

Max: I have some potential new sponsers for the site, do it, DOOOO EEEEET

Bit: okay...

[JiFtheOracle]

That's a classic and should be pinned so no one who reads this site will ever miss or forget it!!!

 

 

It truely does deserve its own thread.  As the Jets have gone from never pass the ball(groundz and poundz) to never run the ball, it is just a majestic moment.

 

^^^This guy gets it

 

I never thought I would see that statment on its own.  Maybe "running the Air Raid" or "running the wildcat" is a gimmick but to say that controlling the line of scrimage and the clock is a gimmick just isnt right. 

 

I think Max called Bit yesterday and their conversation went as such:

Max: your stance for the foreseeable future is that running the football is not needed when breaking in a rookie QB.

Bit: WHAT????  They are all going to laugh at me...

Max: aaaaannnndddd???

Bit: But they have one of the worst WR corps in the NFL, of course they should rely on the run game

Max: I have some potential new sponsers for the site, do it, DOOOO EEEEET

Bit: okay...

 

The best part of it is, I'm almost positive that Bit if a former Offensive Lineman.  

[JoeKlecko]

You guys seem awful eager to go back to a tactic that was an absolute failure last year  

The only way to win in this league is to pass. Look at the Vikings have the best RB in the game and 0-2. The titans have the most rushing attempts in the league and can't beat good teams.

 

Or how about the Texans with Foster and a great OL still it's Deandre Hopkins who won that game last week. 

Running the football is dead in 2013 NFL. Don't get mad at me, I don't make the rules. 

 

You do realize that there are more colors in the world than black and white don't you?  If yes, then hopefully, you also realize that there are other options than polar opposites when dealing with decisions, situations, etc.  

 

I don't know for certain what their pass/run ratio is now, but would guess that it's something like 90/10, 85/15, or perhaps at best 80/20.  The Jets (Morhinweg) could alter that ratio to 75/25, 70/30, or maybe even as low as 60/40, and the Jets would still be passing the ball plenty.  In addition, just because he lowered the ratio now doesn't mean that the change would become permanent.  It could be a short-term move to help Geno and to help the team win some games.  It could be say for the next 3-6 games (or less depending upon how quickly Geno fixes his fundamentals), then as Geno's fundamentals/footwork improve the ratio could move back in the other direction (to passing even more).  Also, if they faced an opponent during that stretch whose passing D was particularly awful and their rushing D was particularly good, they could revert back to their previous percentages for that game.

 

Even if they had to do it for most or even all of this season, they could always go back next year to passing a lot more.  Thus it isn't a permanent philosophical change, but rather a short-term solution to a problem.  If they're rushing the ball for 5 yards a pop consistently, they'd also be foolish to ignore that and not take advantage of it, particularly since they're starting a rookie QB whose fundamental issues are causing accuracy problems for him.

 

I sincerely hope that Mornhinweg isn't gonna be stubborn just so he can have a top 10 offense again even if it hurts Geno and the team in the long run.  Hopefully, like Mehta said (although I hate to have to credit him with saying anything positive or reasonable), Mornhinweg is smart enough to realize that he needs to run the ball more and give Ivory more touches.  With Ivory's ability to score from anywhere on the field, that should actually have the affect of helping Geno in the passing game and open up passing lanes more as opposing Ds cheat DBs towards the LOS to guard against Ivory breaking off a big run.

[JiFtheOracle]

You guys seem awful eager to go back to a tactic that was an absolute failure last year  

The only way to win in this league is to pass. Look at the Vikings have the best RB in the game and 0-2. The titans have the most rushing attempts in the league and can't beat good teams.

 

Or how about the Texans with Foster and a great OL still it's Deandre Hopkins who won that game last week. 

Running the football is dead in 2013 NFL. Don't get mad at me, I don't make the rules. 

 

You're wrong, we had the exercise the other day and sufficiently put it to bed. 

 

 

FWIW - 7 of the top 10 teams in the league in terms of rush attempts in 2012, made the playoffs.  5 of them, won their division.  

 

 

Of those 7 teams (Seattle, Pats, Redskins, 9'ers, Texans, Vikings, Denver) - 4 of them were in the lowest 5 teams of pass attempts in the league (Seattle, San Fran, Minn, Redskins).

 

 

Teams that led the league in pass attempts.

 

Detroit

Saints

Cowboys

Pats

Raiders

Colts

Eagles - (hey Marty M.)

Falcons

Cardinals

Broncos

 

By my count, thats 4 teams.  Ironically, they are the only 4 teams with a winning record on that list (and 2 of them, were top 10 in rushing attempts). 

 

 

[whodeawhodat]

You do realize that there are more colors in the world than black and white don't you?  If yes, then hopefully, you also realize that there are other options than polar opposites when dealing with decisions, situations, etc.  

 

I don't know for certain what their pass/run ratio is now, but would guess that it's something like 90/10, 85/15, or perhaps at best 80/20.  The Jets (Morhinweg) could alter that ratio to 75/25, 70/30, or maybe even as low as 60/40, and the Jets would still be passing the ball plenty.  In addition, just because he lowered the ratio now doesn't mean that the change would become permanent.  It could be a short-term move to help Geno and to help the team win some games.  It could be say for the next 3-6 games (or less depending upon how quickly Geno fixes his fundamentals), then as Geno's fundamentals/footwork improve the ratio could move back in the other direction (to passing even more).  Also, if they faced an opponent during that stretch whose passing D was particularly awful and their rushing D was particularly good, they could revert back to their previous percentages for that game.

 

Even if they had to do it for most or even all of this season, they could always go back next year to passing a lot more.  Thus it isn't a permanent philosophical change, but rather a short-term solution to a problem.  If they're rushing the ball for 5 yards a pop consistently, they'd also be foolish to ignore that and not take advantage of it, particularly since they're starting a rookie QB whose fundamental issues are causing accuracy problems for him.

 

I sincerely hope that Mornhinweg isn't gonna be stubborn just so he can have a top 10 offense again even if it hurts Geno and the team in the long run.  Hopefully, like Mehta said (although I hate to have to credit him with saying anything positive or reasonable), Mornhinweg is smart enough to realize that he needs to run the ball more and give Ivory more touches.  With Ivory's ability to score from anywhere on the field, that should actually have the affect of helping Geno in the passing game and open up passing lanes more as opposing Ds cheat DBs towards the LOS to guard against Ivory breaking off a big run.

 

I agree with everything you said EXCEPT that if we have a top 10 offense, there is no way that hurts Geno.  Just dont think that is possible.  Also, if we have a top 10 offense, I guarantee we make the playoffs, yes, playoffs.

 

Edit: oh jeez, I hope i read everything correctly, I may have glossed over a sentence or 2...

[bitonti]

using NFL.com stats 

 

61 rushes 45.2%

74 pass attempts 54.8%

 

that adds up to 135 total plays and thats what I used to get the percentages

 

the site actually lists 144 total offensive plays I am not sure if that means punts are included as offensive plays.

 

Regardless it's not 75/25 (or higher) like some in this thread believe. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/statistics?team=nyj

[Bugg]

You guys seem awful eager to go back to a tactic that was an absolute failure last year  

The only way to win in this league is to pass. Look at the Vikings have the best RB in the game and 0-2. The titans have the most rushing attempts in the league and can't beat good teams.

 

Or how about the Texans with Foster and a great OL still it's Deandre Hopkins who won that game last week. 

Running the football is dead in 2013 NFL. Don't get mad at me, I don't make the rules.

Preach on. When Wrecks had a good running game the Jets barely got in the playoffs with 9 wins, finished 2nd in the AFCE with 11. The wishbone, flying wing and dropkick were all prominent part of the NFL 70 odd years ago.Things change. DOing the same thing over and over is pointless if it doesn't accomplish the goal.

There is a place for running the ball, but it's not what it used to be. There is exactly 1 primo back and his team is 0-2. Salaries for backs have dropped off the table(beginning at exactly the time Tannenbum financed Martin's grandchildrens' IRAs) and salaries for blind side tackles (depending on lefty or righthanded QB) have skyrocketed. The rules beg you to pass. A running team has not won the Super Bowl since 2001. Last years' Super Bowl featured 2 supposedly good defenses-and a 34-31 final score. You need to score to win. To do that you have to pass effectively. NOBODY has 3 80+ yard 7 first down 8 minute drives any more because too much can go wrong over that many plays. Low risk is low reward.

[JoeKlecko]

 

using NFL.com stats 

 

61 rushes 44.2%

74 pass attempts 53.6%

 

that adds up to 138 total plays and thats what I used to get the percentages

 

the site actually lists 144 total offensive plays I am not sure if that means punts are included as offensive plays. Regardless it's not 75/25 (or higher) like some in this thread believe. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/statistics?team=nyj

 

 

That's surprising, but ok.  They could even reverse the percentages to running more than they're throwing it and the same things I said above would hold true.  You do what you have to do to win.  One of the definitions of insanity is to keep doing things that haven't worked before the same way and expecting the outcome to change.

[bitonti]

 

You're wrong, we had the exercise the other day and sufficiently put it to bed.

 

 

if just making the playoffs were good enough barometer for success we'd all be happy with Mark Sanchez' career. If you want to win the ring it's all about passing. Look at Denver. That's what the league wants. Every year they change the rules to make it more pass happy. Those who stay with the run are being left behind. And yes I was a former OL that doesn't change the reality of what is happening in the NFL. 

[kay_gee]

running the ball a little extra to take some pressure off a raw, rookie QB is not abandoning the pass for an outdated game. give me a break, you're being deliberately obtuse.

[bitonti]

running the ball a little extra to take some pressure off a raw, rookie QB is not abandoning the pass for an outdated game. give me a break, you're being deliberately obtuse.

 

any run pass ratio where running is more than 50% is outdated. they are at 45% running through two games. 

[stoicsentry]

You guys seem awful eager to go back to a tactic that was an absolute failure last year  

The only way to win in this league is to pass. Look at the Vikings have the best RB in the game and 0-2.

 

So the reason the Vikings aren't winning is because they run the ball too much with Adrian Peterson?

 

Yeah, OK....

[JiFtheOracle]

if just making the playoffs were good enough barometer for success we'd all be happy with Mark Sanchez' career. If you want to win the ring it's all about passing. Look at Denver. That's what the league wants. Every year they change the rules to make it more pass happy. Those who stay with the run are being left behind. And yes I was a former OL that doesn't change the reality of what is happening in the NFL. 

 

Denver was 9th on the list for rush attempts last season.  They were one and done.  Losing to a team who was 12th on the list, missing the top 10 in attempts by 20.  San Fran, was 7th, they played in the SB.

 

Running the ball is crucial.  Proof is in the pudding.  

[jbone]

Just for fun I checked the regular season W-L records for the top ten passing teams from 2012: 90-70

 

Regular season W-L record for the top ten rushing teams: 91- 68 (SF had one tie)

 

The death of the NFL rushing game has been greatly exaggerated.

[flgreen]

 

 

I don't know for certain what their pass/run ratio is now, but would guess that it's something like 90/10, 85/15, or perhaps at best 80/20.  The Jets (Morhinweg) could alter that ratio to 75/25, 70/30, or maybe even as low as 60/40, and the Jets would still be passing the ball plenty.

 

 

 

HUH?

 

Against Tampa the Jets passed the ball 39 times, and ran it 25

 

Against the Pats they passed the ball 35 times and ran it 32

 

That comes out to  56% pass. and 44% run.

[JiFtheOracle]

Just for fun I checked the regular season W-L records for the top ten passing teams from 2012: 90-70

 

Regular season W-L record for the top ten rushing teams: 91- 68 (SF had one tie)

 

The death of the NFL rushing game has been greatly exaggerated.

 

What are you going by?  I did my research by attempts since thats the better indicator.

 

The top 10 running teams in attempts finished - 97-62

The top 10 passing teams in attempts finished - 74-86

[jbone]

I just did total yardage. Didn't really get into too much.

[Bugg]

Just for fun I checked the regular season W-L records for the top ten passing teams from 2012: 90-70

 

Regular season W-L record for the top ten rushing teams: 91- 68 (SF had one tie)

 

The death of the NFL rushing game has been greatly exaggerated.

This is another example of how football stats are a tough thing fro getting a handle on success or failure. Baseball by comparison is really an individual game. May be the guy will look to move runners over, but more often than not a pitcher is trying to get him out and the batter is trying to reach base.It's a zero sum comparison.It also has no clock.

Football is a game where everything a team does and everything that happens over the course of the game, succeeding and failing, impacts what a team does next.It is not the same serial individual matchup like a pticher and a batter; it's 11 on 11 doing different things every play. And the clock and game score means what you do in the 2nd half might be very different from what you would do on your first drive of the game. If you are ahead late in the game, you will run the ball to keep the clock going. If you are behind, you will throw the ball because you need to score and an imcolpetion stoips the clock. Again, you are looking at outcomes of winning football (rushing the ball late) and losing football(throwing the ball all 2nd half because you are behind) and confusing them with causation, why a team wins or loses. Scoring is really neutral; the end zone doesn't care how you get there. But it's way easier under the current rules to get there by passing effectively.This again is not to say running the ball is BS, merely that it's value has diminished over the alst few years as pass intereference and blocking rules have changed. The idea that when I played Pop Warner you could extend your arsm on a block was one radical change; imagine trying to stop JJ Watt or JJP with basically your raised elbows!). It's also why within defense quality pass rushers are increasingly more valuable than any other defender.

Bit is challenging some very deeply held cliches. But he is mostly correct; running, while decidely a good thing to do well, is not nearly as important as passing effectively. And barring radical rules changes backward that will be even more so in the future. And the NFL and it's TV and marketing partners want things that way.

[jbone]

This is another example of how football stats are a tough thing fro getting a handle on success or failure. Baseball by comparison is really an individual game. May be the guy will look to move runners over, but more often than not a pitcher is trying to get him out and the batter is trying to reach base.It's a zero sum comparison.It also has no clock.

Football is a game where everything a team does and everything that happens over the course of the game, succeeding and failing, impacts what a team does next.It is not the same serial individual matchup like a pticher and a batter; it's 11 on 11 doing different things every play. And the clock and game score means what you do in the 2nd half might be very different from what you would do on your first drive of the game. If you are ahead late in the game, you will run the ball to keep the clock going. If you are behind, you will throw the ball because you need to score and an imcolpetion stoips the clock. Again, you are looking at outcomes of winning football (rushing the ball late) and losing football(throwing the ball all 2nd half because you are behind) and confusing them with causation, why a team wins or loses. Scoring is really neutral; the end zone doesn't care how you get there. But it's way easier under the current rules to get there by passing effectively.This again is not to say running the ball is BS, merely that it's value has diminished over the alst few years as pass intereference and blocking rules have changed. The idea that when I played Pop Warner you could extend your arsm on a block was one radical change; imagine trying to stop JJ Watt or JJP with basically your raised elbows!). It's also why within defense quality pass rushers are increasingly more valuable than any other defender.

Bit is challenging some very deeply held cliches. But he is mostly correct; running, while decidely a good thing to do well, is not nearly as important as passing effectively. And barring radical rules changes backward that will be even more so in the future. And the NFL and it's TV and marketing partners want things that way.

I'm confusing them with causation? What the hell are you talking about man?

 

I looked at win loss records, to prove the running game is not dead. You took that seven steps further and constructed an argument I didn't even make.

[Bugg]

I'm confusing them with causation? What the hell are you talking about man?

 

I looked at win loss records, to prove the running game is not dead. You took that seven steps further and constructed an argument I didn't even make.

Again why a team wins or loses is not the the same thing as saying winning and losing teams tend to feature several consistent measurables.

[flgreen]

That's surprising, but ok.  They could even reverse the percentages to running more than they're throwing it and the same things I said above would hold true.  You do what you have to do to win.  One of the definitions of insanity is to keep doing things that haven't worked before the same way and expecting the outcome to change.

 

 

 

Tony, I know your upset you got fired, but read your own post

[jbone]

Again why a team wins or loses is not the the same thing as saying winning and losing teams tend to feature several consistent measurables.

From your posts I conclude: wins, losses, passing yds, rushing yds, pass attemtps, rushing attempts .....etc are useless and should never be used to support an argument you disagree with.

 

I'd prefer to rely on solid data as opposed esoteric debates about the who, where and why of the stats.