kelly Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 over the Cap is out with early projections for compensatory Draft picks in 2017 based on what teams gained and lost in free agency over the last few months. They have bad news for Jets fans. The team is not currently slated to gain an extra pick. They’re stuck on a net value 7th that’s below the 32-pick limit. The Jets signed Jarvis Jenkins to play behind a deep position with Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, and potentially Muhammad Wilkerson. Cutting Jenkins would incur $2.25 million of dead money against the 2016 cap, but it would also put the Jets in line to pick up a 4th for Damon Harrison. To put this in plain English, the projection indicates the signing of Jarvis Jenkins cost the Jets a fourth round pick. Their projections have the three qualifying free agents the team signed (Steve McLendon, Matt Forte, and Jenkins) cancelling out the three the team lost (Damon Harrison, Chris Ivory, and Demario Davis). Had the Jets not signed Jenkins, Forte and McLendon would have cancelled out losing Ivory and Davis, leaving the Jets a fourth round pick for losing Harrison. Did Mike Maccagnan essentially trade a fourth round pick for a depth lineman? Should we be out with torches and pitchforks? This is not necessarily the case. It is too early to say that. The current projections are based primarily on salary, but there are other factors that will go into it, such as playing time. As such, the final outcome cannot be known until the season is over. Mike Maccagnan said during one of his media sessions during the Draft that the team's current projection is that the Jets are indeed potentially on track to get a fourth round compensatory pick for Harrison. Could Over the Cap's numbers be off? To get some context, I looked at their 2016 compensatory pick projections against the picks the league actually awarded. Over the Cap projected 32 compensatory picks, while the NFL awarded 33. Here is how they did. Correct Team and Round 26 (79%) Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd. DET 3 DET 3 NE 3 NE 3 SEA 3 SEA 3 DEN 3 DEN 3 GB 4 GB 4 SF 4 SF 4 BAL 4 BAL 4 BAL 4 BAL 4 DEN 4 DEN 4 DAL 4 DAL 4 GB 4 GB 4 CLE 4 CLE 4 ARI 5 ARI 5 CLE 5 CLE 5 SEA 5 SEA 5 CLE 5 CLE 5 SF 5 SF 5 SD 5 SD 5 SF 6 SF 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 SF 6 SF 6 NE 6 NE 6 SEA 6 SEA 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 DEN 6 DEN 6 Correct Team; Incorrect Round 5 (15%) Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd. NE 5 NE 6 DET 5 DET 6 BAL 5 BAL 6 NE 7 NE 6 PIT 7 PIT 6 Total Miss 2 (6%) Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd. N/A N/A BUF 4 SD 6 BUF 6 This leaves me with two conclusions. 1. Considering their resources and the complexity of the compensatory pick system, the people at Over the Cap did a first rate job. To approach 80% is superb. 2. There is some degree of variation between the projections and the actual results. Even though most of their projections were correct, there were some misses. At this point, I would probably lean on the side of the Jets' projections. The teams in the league have the most information on the process. Partially I want the Jets to be right. Given how little wiggle room the team had to be active in free agency, not adding an extra pick this year would be a missed opportunity. > http://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/5/13/11668412/will-the-jets-get-any-compensatory-picks-in-2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYs Stepchild Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 They predicted Buff to have 0 picks, and they got a 4th, and a 6th. Did they have an explanation for that? Did they adjust for it? Why did they give out 33 picks, and why is OTC still predicting 32? I would imagine Mac knows the playing time limit, and will not allow that threshold to be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 I'll just trust Macc's judgment until he proves not worthy of that. As for trading a 4th for that OL Shell, it's silly to try to judge that now. Obviously if he turns into a good OT then it was a great move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljr Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 So far I will err on the side of agreeing with Mac's judgement until proven otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcat Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 47 minutes ago, kelly said: over the Cap is out with early projections for compensatory Draft picks in 2017 based on what teams gained and lost in free agency over the last few months. They have bad news for Jets fans. The team is not currently slated to gain an extra pick. They’re stuck on a net value 7th that’s below the 32-pick limit. The Jets signed Jarvis Jenkins to play behind a deep position with Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, and potentially Muhammad Wilkerson. Cutting Jenkins would incur $2.25 million of dead money against the 2016 cap, but it would also put the Jets in line to pick up a 4th for Damon Harrison. To put this in plain English, the projection indicates the signing of Jarvis Jenkins cost the Jets a fourth round pick. Their projections have the three qualifying free agents the team signed (Steve McLendon, Matt Forte, and Jenkins) cancelling out the three the team lost (Damon Harrison, Chris Ivory, and Demario Davis). Had the Jets not signed Jenkins, Forte and McLendon would have cancelled out losing Ivory and Davis, leaving the Jets a fourth round pick for losing Harrison. Did Mike Maccagnan essentially trade a fourth round pick for a depth lineman? Should we be out with torches and pitchforks? This is not necessarily the case. It is too early to say that. The current projections are based primarily on salary, but there are other factors that will go into it, such as playing time. As such, the final outcome cannot be known until the season is over. Mike Maccagnan said during one of his media sessions during the Draft that the team's current projection is that the Jets are indeed potentially on track to get a fourth round compensatory pick for Harrison. Could Over the Cap's numbers be off? To get some context, I looked at their 2016 compensatory pick projections against the picks the league actually awarded. Over the Cap projected 32 compensatory picks, while the NFL awarded 33. Here is how they did. Correct Team and Round 26 (79%) Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd. DET 3 DET 3 NE 3 NE 3 SEA 3 SEA 3 DEN 3 DEN 3 GB 4 GB 4 SF 4 SF 4 BAL 4 BAL 4 BAL 4 BAL 4 DEN 4 DEN 4 DAL 4 DAL 4 GB 4 GB 4 CLE 4 CLE 4 ARI 5 ARI 5 CLE 5 CLE 5 SEA 5 SEA 5 CLE 5 CLE 5 SF 5 SF 5 SD 5 SD 5 SF 6 SF 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 SF 6 SF 6 NE 6 NE 6 SEA 6 SEA 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 DAL 6 DEN 6 DEN 6 Correct Team; Incorrect Round 5 (15%) Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd. NE 5 NE 6 DET 5 DET 6 BAL 5 BAL 6 NE 7 NE 6 PIT 7 PIT 6 Total Miss 2 (6%) Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd. N/A N/A BUF 4 SD 6 BUF 6 This leaves me with two conclusions. 1. Considering their resources and the complexity of the compensatory pick system, the people at Over the Cap did a first rate job. To approach 80% is superb. 2. There is some degree of variation between the projections and the actual results. Even though most of their projections were correct, there were some misses. At this point, I would probably lean on the side of the Jets' projections. The teams in the league have the most information on the process. Partially I want the Jets to be right. Given how little wiggle room the team had to be active in free agency, not adding an extra pick this year would be a missed opportunity. > http://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/5/13/11668412/will-the-jets-get-any-compensatory-picks-in-2017 There is already a thread on this Kenny. Why must you always create a new thread even when there is one already on the topic? Might it be that you never the board? You poor gender confused spam-bot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Aren't the comp picks doled out by a committee? Aren't the picks hard to predict? Isn't it more than just a cut and dried formula, easy to predict? too much stress over the last pick of the 4th round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fibonacci Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 This is just me but the difference between Comp picks and smart UDFA picks are not as big as we thing. Since Mac is a former scout, I won't worry about comp picks until we have a GM like Tanny who had no clue about player evaluations and gave away draft picks as candy to trade up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 [scoffs for 15 minutes straight] yeah I think I'm gonna trust Macc over some "website" [continues scoffing until I pass out] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowlesMovement Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 22 minutes ago, dbatesman said: [scoffs for 15 minutes straight] yeah I think I'm gonna trust Macc over some "website" [continues scoffing until I pass out] Twitches FTW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENBEAN Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 A 4th rd compensatory is basically the first 5th rd pick. It has value of course, but it's not worth leaving a hole on the team for. Macc has an actual football front office mind and whether or not every decision he makes is one we will agree with, we can rest assured he's making it from the standpoint of having actual knowledge on how to build a team. There are choices to be made. Always thinking of next years draft when we have an actual team right now isn't the best technique IMO. If we sign Fitz we basically have the same offense outside of Ivory, who while my favorite RB since Blair Thomas was often injured and was really not reliable unfortunately. Then we added a bunch of speed on D. Just like last year everyone is predicting us to go 4-12. Well last season that didn't happen and it won't this year of we sign Fitz and could do well with Geno potentially. No reason not to support the D line with Depth after losing Snacks and Douzable just because there is a late 4th in the bowl next year. Ya dig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainejet Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 Mac did a terrible job on so many levels during this offseason. A lot of fans are going his ability to lead this team after this season. As far as I am concerned it is all deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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