WR 1st-round history this decade

[nycdan]

With all the talk about wanting one of the big-3 WRs in the first round, I find it notable that there is NO consensus on which one to take if given a choice, much like the list of the top-4 OL.  There is an argument that any of them would be a huge upgrade, which is probably right, but prompted me to pull the list of all WRs taken in the 1st round this past decade to see how good a bet it might be.

My own quick scan shows four absolute wins here.  Jones, Hopkins, Beckham (ignoring the personality issues) and Evans.  Five if you add A.J. Green but the injury history holds him back a bit for me.

Then there are another 7 or so tier-2 guys depending on subjective feelings.  Bryant, Thomas, Cooks, Watkins, Cooper, Ridley, Brown.  Parker had one nice year but I'm not sold yet.  

So that's a total of 12 guys out of 34 draftees that I would say probably were worth a 1st round pick.  Even if I missed a few it's still well south of a 50% hit rate. 

So if you are a stats guy, that suggests that probably one WR in three drafted in the 1st round is going to be a win.  Looking back, I remember people loving Julio Jones before that draft, but people also loved Kevin White.  

My question to those who follow these things more closely is, do the top-3 guys feel like better prospects than, say the 2017 group of Davis, Williams and Ross who were all drafted in the top-10 slots?  Or is it really that much of a crap shoot no matter how much we love the next set of lottery tickets?

YEAR	RD	SEL #	PLAYER	SCHOOL	TEAM
2019	1	25	Marquise Brown	Oklahoma	Baltimore Ravens
2019	1	32	N'Keal Harry	Arizona State	New England Patriots
2018	1	24	D.J. Moore	Maryland	Carolina Panthers
2018	1	26	Calvin Ridley	Alabama	Atlanta Falcons
2017	1	5	Corey Davis	Western Michigan	Tennessee Titans
2017	1	7	Mike Williams	Clemson	Los Angeles Chargers
2017	1	9	John Ross	Washington	Cincinnati Bengals
2016	1	15	Corey Coleman	Baylor	Cleveland Browns
2016	1	21	Will Fuller	Notre Dame	Houston Texans
2016	1	22	Josh Doctson	Texas Christian	Washington Redskins
2016	1	23	Laquon Treadwell	Mississippi	Minnesota Vikings
2015	1	4	Amari Cooper	Alabama	Oakland Raiders
2015	1	7	Kevin White	West Virginia	Chicago Bears
2015	1	14	DeVante Parker	Louisville	Miami Dolphins
2015	1	20	Nelson Agholor	USC	Philadelphia Eagles
2015	1	26	Breshad Perriman	Central Florida	Baltimore Ravens
2015	1	29	Phillip Dorsett	Miami (Fla.)	Indianapolis Colts
2014	1	4	Sammy Watkins	Clemson	Buffalo Bills
2014	1	7	Mike Evans	Texas A&M	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014	1	12	Odell Beckham	LSU	New York Giants
2014	1	20	Brandin Cooks	Oregon State	New Orleans Saints
2014	1	28	Kelvin Benjamin	Florida State	Carolina Panthers
2013	1	8	Tavon Austin	West Virginia	St. Louis Rams
2013	1	27	DeAndre Hopkins	Clemson	Houston Texans
2013	1	29	Cordarrelle Patterson	Tennessee	Minnesota Vikings
2012	1	5	Justin Blackmon	Oklahoma State	Jacksonville Jaguars
2012	1	13	Michael Floyd	Notre Dame	Arizona Cardinals
2012	1	20	Kendall Wright	Baylor	Tennessee Titans
2012	1	30	A.J. Jenkins	Illinois	San Francisco 49ers
2011	1	4	A.J. Green	Georgia	Cincinnati Bengals
2011	1	6	Julio Jones	Alabama	Atlanta Falcons
2011	1	26	Jonathan Baldwin	Pittsburgh	Kansas City Chiefs
2010	1	22	Demaryius Thomas	Georgia Tech	Denver Broncos
2010	1	24	Dez Bryant	Oklahoma State	Dallas Cowboys

 

 

[Paradis]

What jumps out at me here is the number of bad picks skewing the numbers... I know hindsight is 20/20.... but not always. You couldn't have paid me to select Doctson, Dorsett, Ross, Austin, Perriman, and few others... i have no idea what GMs were thinking, let alone how those players ended up with a R1 grade.

Some were legit faceplants - Blackmon, Treadwell, Wright, Baldwin..... but boy, there's a lot of "Really?..." picks weighing these stats down. 

[Beerfish]

We keep having these Jeudy Lamb Ruggs!  Convos on the main forum and I keep saying it will be some guy in the 2nd or 3rd o more than one who will be the most impressive.

OT 1st round and two Wr out of the 2,3,3 rounds.

[TheMo]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

We keep having these Jeudy Lamb Ruggs!  Convos on the main forum and I keep saying it will be some guy in the 2nd or 3rd o more than one who will be the most impressive.

OT 1st round and two Wr out of the 2,3,3 rounds.

Couldn't agree more. There are receivers I like a lot in 2/3 can't say the same about the tackles available at those points. 

[nycdan]

That Davis, Williams, Ross trio in the top-10 of 2017 really scares me.  Scouts like all three.  Ross was the Ruggs comp of that year.  Williams and Davis were much bigger than Jeudy and Lamb and also very productive guys.  None of them really turned out to be game-changing talents so far.

The best WRs taken in that draft, by far, were  Juju (2:62), Godwin (3:84), Kupp (2:69) and Golladay. (3:96).

This is why I am leaning OT in 1, WR in 2 and 3.  I don't see a Julio Jones in the top group of three.  I see a lot of guys who aren't big and could end up being good but not great.  I'd rather spin the wheel twice on day 2 and hope to land a Juju.

I'm probably going to repeat this in the main forum somewhere because I think it's worth getting broader attention btw.

[derp]

13 minutes ago, nycdan said:

That Davis, Williams, Ross trio in the top-10 of 2017 really scares me.  Scouts like all three.  Ross was the Ruggs comp of that year.  Williams and Davis were much bigger than Jeudy and Lamb and also very productive guys.  None of them really turned out to be game-changing talents so far.

The best WRs taken in that draft, by far, were  Juju (2:62), Godwin (3:84), Kupp (2:69) and Golladay. (3:96).

This is why I am leaning OT in 1, WR in 2 and 3.  I don't see a Julio Jones in the top group of three.  I see a lot of guys who aren't big and could end up being good but not great.  I'd rather spin the wheel twice on day 2 and hope to land a Juju.

I'm probably going to repeat this in the main forum somewhere because I think it's worth getting broader attention btw.

I agree very, very much with that approach.

Teams put too much emphasis on raw college production and speed and not enough on age adjusted market share and weight. Leads to a lot of clunkers. If you think about it, raw WR stats are really heavily impacted by quarterback play and overall quality of the offense.

Jeudy and Ruggs played one a stacked national title contender and the guy throwing him the ball will go top 5 and was the presumptive #1 pick until he had an injury that some thought could’ve ended his career and another guy had arguably the best season of a quarterback in college football history. They do get dinged in market share because of each other and Smith and that’s a confounding thing - perhaps they’d have better market shares on a team without elite receivers. This happened with Beckham and Landry.

Lamb also played on a stacked national title contender in an explosive offense. His first two quarterbacks have gone #1 overall and the third is getting drafted this year (kind of hope by the Jets, incidentally). He also played with a first round pick at WR last year which probably dinged market share his first couple of years.

These guys had tons of visibility at elite programs playing with outstanding talent. Odds are they’re not going to be drafted to comparable situations in the NFL. Meanwhile several guys who will be drafted on day 2 likely played on worse teams with worse quarterback play - of course their numbers weren’t as good. Doesn’t mean they won’t be better when they’re put in similar situations to those top guys once they get to the NFL.

Other thing that always sticks out is that a lot of college highlights of guys are just them running loose down the field. How often does that happen in the NFL? Route running and ability to make contested catches are so important to separate enough to give the QB a window and then finish the play in a league where those windows are often a whole lot tighter than college. It’s why speed is so overrated and strength is key.

Good article and the data it references is pretty cool - there’s a link to a spreadsheet.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2020-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-film-breakout-age-dominator-rating

[Dcat]

12 hours ago, Beerfish said:

We keep having these Jeudy Lamb Ruggs!  Convos on the main forum and I keep saying it will be some guy in the 2nd or 3rd o more than one who will be the most impressive.

OT 1st round and two Wr out of the 2,3,3 rounds.

we'll see

[JohnnyLV]

On 4/4/2020 at 9:42 PM, Beerfish said:

We keep having these Jeudy Lamb Ruggs!  Convos on the main forum and I keep saying it will be some guy in the 2nd or 3rd o more than one who will be the most impressive.

OT 1st round and two Wr out of the 2,3,3 rounds.

My preference as well but one of the analysts was saying that although a lot of WRs get taken in the first round, few actually have TRUE first round grades. In this draft though Jeudy Lamb and Ruggs all have true first round grades and would be clear #1 prospects in many other drafts.