Analyzing the 2005-19 WR's drafted (Rounds 1-5)

[Aussie Jet]

Craphonso? Who the heck calls their son Craphonso? Holy smokes, some people should be made to take a course before becoming parents.

[Greenseed4]

9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is why, as I've been saying in other threads, I'd like to trade BACK from 11, then trade UP to get back into the 1st round so we end up with two 1sts.  An OT at 16 and a WR at the back end of the 1st would be ideal.  

Pretty sure @jetstream23 planted that seed.  I’ve been messing around with it in Mocks and yeah it’s the best way to go depending on who drops. 

[CanadaSteve]

I am for Jerry Jeudy in the first, especially if the best OL's are gone.

That said, the pick makes me nervous.  I am old enough to remember at least a dozen CAN'T MISS WR's who were out of the league in 5 years.  The one thing about Jeudy is his route-running.  It seems like, at the very least, he will be a solid number 2.  It doesn't appear he will be a Carlos Rogers or Mike Williams. 

The higher success rates seem to come in the 2nd and 3rd round.  This is where you find guys like Michael Pittman and Chase Claypool.

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, CanadaSteve said:

That said, the pick makes me nervous.  I am old enough to remember at least a dozen CAN'T MISS WR's who were out of the league in 5 years. 

Yep.  A lot of fun WRs in this draft but I don't think there are any where you can look at them and say "This is guy is a lock to be the next Mike Evans or DeAndre Hopkins".  

We desperately need one of the top OT's we like to fall to us at 11 to make our decision easy.  

[jetstream23]

3 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Pretty sure @jetstream23 planted that seed.  I’ve been messing around with it in Mocks and yeah it’s the best way to go depending on who drops. 

Thanks for remembering.

I'm the founder of the "I want two picks between #11 and #48 but don't actually want picks #11 and #48 Foundation." lol

In terms of mocks, I've played around with the one at PFN which is pretty cool.  I think I like it better than Fanspeak (which does have more configuration options, data sets, etc.) and the DraftNetwork mock draft machine (which has an awesome interface).

The PFN Mock site allows you to easily pause the draft as its happening and initiate trade proposals with any other team. I don't know how realistic they are or the algorithm used but it doesn't allow you to do totally unrealistic trades (it gives you a Declined response).  The reason I mention all this is because my favorite trade that is repeatedly accepted has the Jets sending #11 and #48 to San Fransisco for #13 and #31.  Again, not sure SF would do that in reality....it probably depends on who is available.

THAT is almost the perfect trade for the Jets as they're likely to have AT LEAST one of the top 4 OTs or Top 3 WRs available at #13.  And at #31 we have MANY more options available in terms of 2nd tier OTs, WRs, and some interesting Edge and CB options.  Going from 48 to 31 is a big jump and really unlocks the quality of the Draft for the Jets.

Here's the link....Warning: It's insanely addictive

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  A lot of fun WRs in this draft but I don't think there are any where you can look at them and say "This is guy is a lock to be the next Mike Evans or DeAndre Hopkins".  

We desperately need one of the top OT's we like to fall to us at 11 to make our decision easy.  

This has shades of self-serving bias.  We think that because we need OTs and WRs that other teams are going to similarly value those players. In reality, a mixture of the top-4 OTs and top-3 WRs will likely fall to us at 11, and probably still be available if we trade back to #15 or #16.

We are discounting the lure of DTs, Safeties, QBs and ILBs because we are set at those positions, but I could easily see the draft's top LB (or third best QB) going higher than a lot of us have considered.  In my trade back mocks, I'm getting CeeDee Lamb/Ruggs and my choice of Jedrick Wills/Wirfs at #16.

[Greenseed4]

11 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Thanks for remembering.

I'm the founder of the "I want two picks between #11 and #48 but don't actually want picks #11 and #48 Foundation." lol

In terms of mocks, I've played around with the one at PFN which is pretty cool.  I think I like it better than Fanspeak (which does have more configuration options, data sets, etc.) and the DraftNetwork mock draft machine (which has an awesome interface).

The PFN Mock site allows you to easily pause the draft as its happening and initiate trade proposals with any other team. I don't know how realistic they are or the algorithm used but it doesn't allow you to do totally unrealistic trades (it gives you a Declined response).  The reason I mention all this is because my favorite trade that is repeatedly accepted has the Jets sending #11 and #48 to San Fransisco for #13 and #31.  Again, not sure SF would do that in reality....it probably depends on who is available.

THAT is almost the perfect trade for the Jets as they're likely to have AT LEAST one of the top 4 OTs or Top 3 WRs available at #13.  And at #31 we have MANY more options available in terms of 2nd tier OTs, WRs, and some interesting Edge and CB options.  Going from 48 to 31 is a big jump and really unlocks the quality of the Draft for the Jets.

Here's the link....Warning: It's insanely addictive

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

No trade:

Trade back/trade up

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

This has shades of self-serving bias.  We think that because we need OTs and WRs that other teams are going to similarly value those players. In reality, a mixture of the top-4 OTs and top-3 WRs will likely fall to us at 11, and probably still be available if we trade back to #15 or #16.

We are discounting the lure of DTs, Safeties, QBs and ILBs because we are set at those positions, but I could easily see the draft's top LB (or third best QB) going higher than a lot of us have considered.  In my trade back mocks, I'm getting CeeDee Lamb/Ruggs and my choice of Jedrick Wills/Wirfs at #16.

I'm not discounting other teams' needs at all.  But OT is always a need for teams picking high (and this year is no exception), so I imagine at least one of the top 4 will be gone. 

The pool is limited more at the position based on OUR needs for an OT.  Andrew Thomas doesn't appear to be a scheme fit.  Becton is raw.  Wirfs might not be a LT.  Wills gets penalized often.  Maybe we only like 1 of the 4 OT's at 11.  Maybe we like none.  We don't know yet.

[jetstream23]

19 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

No trade:

Trade back/trade up

Yup.  I definitely like your second one better than the first.

[nyjbuddy]

Did a little more analysis using the data specified by @Jetsfan80.  I took the data from pro-football-reference and averaged the Car AV per year in the league.  Gives a better idea of WRs that are consistently producing rather than accumulating stats.  With this data, I split them into categories based on their average Car AV per season.  Here are the groups and how that translate into production on the field:

Car AV	Yards	TD
10+	1250	8
8-9.99	1000	6.5
7-7.99	900	6
5-6.99	700-800	5
3-4.99	400-600	3

The Car AV translates pretty accurately to yards and TDs with 1 or 2 outliers per category.  For example, Hopkins did not make the elite, even though he averages 1230 yards and 7.7 TDs.

So breaking this down by round:

Car AV	Yards	TD	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5
10+	1250	8	1	2	0	0	1
8-9.99	1000	6.5	7	3	1	0	1
7-7.99	900	6	3	3	4	0	0
5-6.99	700-800	5	6	10	8	3	2
3-4.99	400-600	3	12	12	8	9	6
			40	45	53	54	42

This provided a better breakdown as to the floor and ceiling through each round.  Looking for the next elite WR will not come from this analytics.  If the threshold is to find a thousand yard receiver, the 1st round looks better than other rounds, but getting a 700-800 yard receiver (stat replacement for Robby Anderson), the Jets can wait a little and perhaps draft in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

Did a little more analysis using the data specified by @Jetsfan80.  I took the data from pro-football-reference and averaged the Car AV per year in the league.  Gives a better idea of WRs that are consistently producing rather than accumulating stats.  With this data, I split them into categories based on their average Car AV per season.  Here are the groups and how that translate into production on the field:

Car AV	Yards	TD
10+	1250	8
8-9.99	1000	6.5
7-7.99	900	6
5-6.99	700-800	5
3-4.99	400-600	3

The Car AV translates pretty accurately to yards and TDs with 1 or 2 outliers per category.  For example, Hopkins did not make the elite, even though he averages 1230 yards and 7.7 TDs.

So breaking this down by round:

Car AV	Yards	TD	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5
10+	1250	8	1	2	0	0	1
8-9.99	1000	6.5	7	3	1	0	1
7-7.99	900	6	3	3	4	0	0
5-6.99	700-800	5	6	10	8	3	2
3-4.99	400-600	3	12	12	8	9	6
			40	45	53	54	42

This provided a better breakdown as to the floor and ceiling through each round.  Looking for the next elite WR will not come from this analytics.  If the threshold is to find a thousand yard receiver, the 1st round looks better than other rounds, but getting a 700-800 yard receiver (stat replacement for Robby Anderson), the Jets can wait a little and perhaps draft in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

 

Well done, thanks!   

Your breakdown definitely confirms a high bust rate for first rounders (45 % of rd 1 WRs were in the sub-800/sub-5 TD group) but also paints a little more positive picture on the upside of those 1st round WRs too.