Analyzing the 2005-19 WR's drafted (Rounds 1-5)

[Jetsfan80]

Based on a previous thread (below), I decided to take a closer look at the WR hit vs bust rate for WR's drafted from 2005-19, and see how that can possibly help determine when is the best time to take a receiver, historically.  

 

 

I only included WR's drafted in Rounds 1-5, and used football-reference.com's Career AV (Average Value) metric.  Admittedly this isn't all that strong of a metric to use, but it keeps things simple by using 1 number to evaluate each WR.   I only used Rounds 1-5 because, for the most part, 6th/7th round receivers are where you tend to find a lot of Special Teamers. 

319 WRs were drafted in Rounds 1-5 from 2005-19.  Let's go Round-by-Round, as we'll need to adjust the expectations of WR prospects as we go deeper into the draft.  

I decided not to include the AV #'s below, because a "sliding scale" had to be used based on how recently the player was drafted.  But here are some examples of how I decided who fit into which category.

Busts:  Career AV of <20 for a player drafted in Round 1 and prior to 2016.  For more recent players that number dropped a bit.  For 2nd rounders and later, it became increasingly difficult to reach the "bust" list, based on a sliding scale.  Examples of 1st round busts include the likes of Craig Davis (7), Jonathan Baldwin (4), AJ Jenkins (2), and Kevin White (2).  In Round 2, the AV had to be 

Disappointments:  Career AV of 18-35 for a player drafted in Round 1 and prior to 2016.  Examples include Matt Jones (22), Mark Clayton (27), Darrius Heyward-Bey (22) and Kenny Britt (35).  This category only exists for 1st round picks.  

To Be Determined:  This category is reserved for any WR drafted from 2017-present who cannot yet be called a "hit".    

Near Hit:  These are WR's in the 30-38 AV range who were drafted in the 1st round prior between 2014-17, and the 39-55 range from 2005-13.   Examples include Braylon Edwards (41), Michael Crabtree (53), Kenny Britt (35), Sammy Watkins (36), Corey Davis (14) and Marquise Brown (8).  

Hits:  Any WR in any round with an AV score of 39+ reached this list.   Also, any WR with a score of 20+ in Round 2 drafted 2012-present made the cut.  The scale became more generous for receivers drafted in Rounds 3-5.  Receivers drafted from 2017-present could only make the "hits" list if they were a 2nd rounder or lower.

 

Round 1 (53 WRs)

• Busts [13]:  Troy Williamson, Craig Davis, Jonathan Baldwin, Justin Blackmon, AJ Jenkins, Mike Williams (2005), Anthony Gonzalez, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
• Disappointments [13]:  Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Robert Meachem, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Will Fuller, Kelvin Benjamin, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kenny Britt
• To Be Determined [5]:  N'Keal Harry, John Ross, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown
• Near Hit [10]:  Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Bowe, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (2017), Sammy Watkins
• Hits [12]:  Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper

Round 2 (66 WRs)

• Busts [20]:  Terrence Murphy, Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Dwayne Jarrett, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed, Dexter Jackson, Brian Robiskie, Arrelios Benn, Titus Young, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Ryan Broyles, Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Cody Latimer, Devin Smith, Dorial Green-Beckham
• To Be Determined: [12]  Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, DJ Chark, Mecole Hardman, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella
• Near Hit [13]:  Reggie Brown, Mark Bradley, Roscoe Parrish, Jerome Simpson, Mohamed Massaquoi, Greg Little, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, Marqise Lee, Paul Richardson, Rueben Randle, Jordan Matthews, Sterling Shepard
• Hits [21]:  Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith (2007), Jordy Nelson, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Robert Woods, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith-Schuster, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf

Round 3 (74 WRs)

• Busts [34]:  Courtney Roby, Travis Wilson, , Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid, Yamon Figurs, Jason Hill, Johnnie Lee Higgins,  Andre Caldwell, Derrick Williams, Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, Juaquin Iglesias, Damian Williams, Jordan Shipley, Armanti Edwards, Taylor Price, Austin Pettis, Vincent Brown, Jerrel Jernigan, DeVier Posey, TJ Graham, Stedman Bailey, Josh Huff, Dri Archer, Jaelen Strong, Sammie Coates, Braxton Miller, Leonte Carroo, ArDarius Stewart, Carlos Henderson, Chad Williams, Amara Darboh
• To Be Determined [5]:  Taywan Taylor, Tre'Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson, Jalen Hurd, Miles Boykin
• Near Hit [8]:   Brandon Jones, Derek Hagan, Early Doucet, Brandon Tate, Andre Roberts, Leonard Hankerson, Markus Wheaton, Ty Montgomery
• Hits [26]:  Chris Henry, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, Mike Sims-Walker, James Jones, Earl Bennett, Harry Douglas, Mario Manningham, Mike Wallace, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mohamed Sanu, TY Hilton, Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Marquise Goodwin, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Chris Conley, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup, Terry McLaurin

Round 4 (73 WRs)

• Busts [36]:  Jerome Mathis, Craphonso Thorpe, Chase Lyman, Fred Gibson, Cory Rodgers, Skyler Green, Ryne Robinson, Chris Davis, Will Franklin, Marcus Smith, Arman Shields, Keenan Burton, Mardy Gilyard, Marcus Easley, Kris Durham, Clyde Gates, Greg Salas, Tandon Doss, Joe Adams, Devon Wylie, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Ace Sanders, Josh Boyce, Chris Harper, Jalen Saunders, Shaquille Evans, Kevin Norwood, Vince Mayle, Deandre Smelter, Chris Moore, Malcolm Mitchell, Ricardo Louis, Pharoh Cooper, Jehu Chesson, Chad Hansen
• To Be Determined [12]:  Josh Reynolds, Mack Hollins, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Keke Coutee, Antonio Callaway, DaeSean Hamilton, Jaleel Scott, J'Mon Moore, Hakeem Butler, Gary Jennings, Riley Ridley
• Near Hit [13]:  Roydell Williams, Michael Robinson, Demetrius Randall, Domenik Hixon, Lavelle Hawkins, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie, Jacoby Ford, Chris Givens, Keshawn Martin, Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington, Justin Hardy
• Hits [12]:  Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Mike Williams (2010), Cecil Shorts, Travis Benjamin, Jarius Wright, Martavis Bryant, Jamison Crowder, Demarcus Robinson, Dede Westbrook

Round 5 (53 WRs)

• Busts [28]:  Airese Currie, Larry Brackins, Rasheed Marshall, Marques Hagans, Aundrae Allison, David Clowney, Roy Hall, Kenny Moore, Matthew Slater, Kenny McKinley, Jarrett Dillard, Brooks Foster, David Reed, Kerry Meier, Kealoah Pilares, Danny Coale, Juron Criner, Devin Street, Jared Abbrederis, Rashad Greene, Tony Lippett, Kenny Bell, Keith Mumphery, Jordan Payton, Trevor Davis, Shelton Gibson, Rodney Adams, DeAngelo Yancey
• To Be Determined [3]:  Isaiah McKenzie, Daurice Fountain, Jordan Lasley
• Near Hit [6]:  Legedu Naanee, Denarius Moore, Niles Paul, Denard Robinson, Ryan Grant, Rashard Higgins
• Hits [13]:  Steve Breaston, Johnny Knox, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Kerley, Marvin Jones, Kenny Stills, Stefon Diggs, JJ Nelson, Tajae Sharpe, Tyreke Hill, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Hunter Renfrow, Darius Slayton

 

Totals by Percentage (Bust/Hit only)

• Round 1:  Bust  - 25 % ; Hit - 23 %
• Round 2:  Bust - 30 % ;  Hit - 32 %
• Round 3:  Bust - 46 % ; Hit - 35 %
• Round 4:  Bust - 49 % ; Hit - 16 %
• Round 5:  Bust - 53 %; Hit - 25 %

 

Conclusions

So what can we take from this information?  It appears WR has very mixed results in the 1st round.  A much lower bust rate than rounds 3-5, sure, but its far from a sure thing that you're going to land an elite WR in the 1st.  Teams get enamored by speed/size attributes in the 1st and over-value certain receivers, so this is not a big surprise. 

The 2nd round appears to be the "money round" for receivers.  Sure, you're not likely to find a potential future HOFer here like you could in the 1st (Ex - Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones).  But quite a few multi-year Pro Bowlers/WR1s have slipped to this round, with the bust rate still being fairly low.  This year's draft is no better of an example where we should see quality WR's be available in Round 2.  

The bust rate shoots up in Rounds 3-5, even when being very conservative about labeling a player a "bust" here.  The hit rate is actually very good in Round 3, but the ceiling of some of the names that have gone there has been limited.  A solid WR2 is about the best you can hope for in a typical year.  Again, this year's draft class is far from ordinary, so keep that in mind for Round 3.  Rounds 4-5 are where the "dead zone" starts for receivers.  The best of this group, Tyreke Hill, only fell this far due to character concerns that he has certainly not quelled.  

[82nd Airborne]

2nd Rd WR

[82nd Airborne]

1- OL

2- WR

3- RB

4- CB

5- OL

 

[32EBoozer]

@Jetsfan80

So we have 2 busts on our roster. Perriman and Doctson. Let’s go JD

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

@Jetsfan80

So we have 2 busts on our roster. Perriman and Doctson. Let’s go JD

True, but if Perriman had been a 2nd rounder or later he would not have been on the "bust" list.  Though he wouldn't have been a "hit" either unless he was a 3rd rounder or later.

At this stage, for what we're paying Perriman, he was a worthwhile pickup.  Especially if he can capture the magic from the tail-end of the 2019 season.  

[32EBoozer]

Agreed! Not sure what we have in Doctson? Hopefully Ward can bring out the confidence and game smarts to go with physical talent 

[RedBeardedSavage]

Rounds 2-3, I want 2 WR’s.

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Rounds 2-3, I want 2 WR’s.

This.

Between Rd 2 being the WR "money round", historically, and it being very difficult to find quality OT's outside Round 1, I'm fully onboard with OT-WR in rounds 1 and 2.

Naturally, a trade of a certain defensive player I won't name would give us much-needed flexibility and make all this a lot easier.  Alternatively, if all none of the OT's we like are available at 11, I'm down to trade back.  

[Obrien2Toon]

Austin, Cooks, Ross have me a little wary of Ruggs

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Austin, Cooks, Ross have me a little wary of Ruggs

The only 1st round WR I'd be fully on board with is Jeudy.  All the others scare me enough to either trade down and/or grab one in the 2nd.  

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Based on a previous thread (below), I decided to take a closer look at the WR hit vs bust rate for WR's drafted from 2005-19, and see how that can possibly help determine when is the best time to take a receiver, historically.  

 

 

I only included WR's drafted in Rounds 1-5, and used football-reference.com's Career AV (Average Value) metric.  Admittedly this isn't all that strong of a metric to use, but it keeps things simple by using 1 number to evaluate each WR.   I only used Rounds 1-5 because, for the most part, 6th/7th round receivers are where you tend to find a lot of Special Teamers. 

319 WRs were drafted in Rounds 1-5 from 2005-19.  Let's go Round-by-Round, as we'll need to adjust the expectations of WR prospects as we go deeper into the draft.  

I decided not to include the AV #'s below, because a "sliding scale" had to be used based on how recently the player was drafted.  But here are some examples of how I decided who fit into which category.

Busts:  Career AV of <20 for a player drafted in Round 1 and prior to 2016.  For more recent players that number dropped a bit.  For 2nd rounders and later, it became increasingly difficult to reach the "bust" list, based on a sliding scale.  Examples of 1st round busts include the likes of Craig Davis (7), Jonathan Baldwin (4), AJ Jenkins (2), and Kevin White (2).  In Round 2, the AV had to be 

Disappointments:  Career AV of 18-35 for a player drafted in Round 1 and prior to 2016.  Examples include Matt Jones (22), Mark Clayton (27), Darrius Heyward-Bey (22) and Kenny Britt (35).  This category only exists for 1st round picks.  

To Be Determined:  This category is reserved for any WR drafted from 2017-present who cannot yet be called a "hit".    

Near Hit:  These are WR's in the 30-38 AV range who were drafted in the 1st round prior between 2014-17, and the 39-55 range from 2005-13.   Examples include Braylon Edwards (41), Michael Crabtree (53), Kenny Britt (35), Sammy Watkins (36), Corey Davis (14) and Marquise Brown (8).  

Hits:  Any WR in any round with an AV score of 39+ reached this list.   Also, any WR with a score of 20+ in Round 2 drafted 2012-present made the cut.  The scale became more generous for receivers drafted in Rounds 3-5.  Receivers drafted from 2017-present could only make the "hits" list if they were a 2nd rounder or lower.

 

Round 1 (53 WRs)

• Busts [13]:  Troy Williamson, Craig Davis, Jonathan Baldwin, Justin Blackmon, AJ Jenkins, Mike Williams (2005), Anthony Gonzalez, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
• Disappointments [13]:  Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Robert Meachem, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Will Fuller, Kelvin Benjamin, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kenny Britt
• To Be Determined [5]:  N'Keal Harry, John Ross, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown
• Near Hit [10]:  Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Bowe, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (2017), Sammy Watkins
• Hits [12]:  Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper

Round 2 (66 WRs)

• Busts [20]:  Terrence Murphy, Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Dwayne Jarrett, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed, Dexter Jackson, Brian Robiskie, Arrelios Benn, Titus Young, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Ryan Broyles, Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Cody Latimer, Devin Smith, Dorial Green-Beckham
• To Be Determined: [12]  Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, DJ Chark, Mecole Hardman, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella
• Near Hit [13]:  Reggie Brown, Mark Bradley, Roscoe Parrish, Jerome Simpson, Mohamed Massaquoi, Greg Little, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, Marqise Lee, Paul Richardson, Rueben Randle, Jordan Matthews, Sterling Shepard
• Hits [21]:  Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith (2007), Jordy Nelson, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Robert Woods, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith-Schuster, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf

Round 3 (74 WRs)

• Busts [34]:  Courtney Roby, Travis Wilson, , Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid, Yamon Figurs, Jason Hill, Johnnie Lee Higgins,  Andre Caldwell, Derrick Williams, Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, Juaquin Iglesias, Damian Williams, Jordan Shipley, Armanti Edwards, Taylor Price, Austin Pettis, Vincent Brown, Jerrel Jernigan, DeVier Posey, TJ Graham, Stedman Bailey, Josh Huff, Dri Archer, Jaelen Strong, Sammie Coates, Braxton Miller, Leonte Carroo, ArDarius Stewart, Carlos Henderson, Chad Williams, Amara Darboh
• To Be Determined [5]:  Taywan Taylor, Tre'Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson, Jalen Hurd, Miles Boykin
• Near Hit [8]:   Brandon Jones, Derek Hagan, Early Doucet, Brandon Tate, Andre Roberts, Leonard Hankerson, Markus Wheaton, Ty Montgomery
• Hits [26]:  Chris Henry, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, Mike Sims-Walker, James Jones, Earl Bennett, Harry Douglas, Mario Manningham, Mike Wallace, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mohamed Sanu, TY Hilton, Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Marquise Goodwin, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Chris Conley, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup, Terry McLaurin

Round 4 (73 WRs)

• Busts [36]:  Jerome Mathis, Craphonso Thorpe, Chase Lyman, Fred Gibson, Cory Rodgers, Skyler Green, Ryne Robinson, Chris Davis, Will Franklin, Marcus Smith, Arman Shields, Keenan Burton, Mardy Gilyard, Marcus Easley, Kris Durham, Clyde Gates, Greg Salas, Tandon Doss, Joe Adams, Devon Wylie, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Ace Sanders, Josh Boyce, Chris Harper, Jalen Saunders, Shaquille Evans, Kevin Norwood, Vince Mayle, Deandre Smelter, Chris Moore, Malcolm Mitchell, Ricardo Louis, Pharoh Cooper, Jehu Chesson, Chad Hansen
• To Be Determined [12]:  Josh Reynolds, Mack Hollins, Josh Malone, Ryan Switzer, Keke Coutee, Antonio Callaway, DaeSean Hamilton, Jaleel Scott, J'Mon Moore, Hakeem Butler, Gary Jennings, Riley Ridley
• Near Hit [13]:  Roydell Williams, Michael Robinson, Demetrius Randall, Domenik Hixon, Lavelle Hawkins, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie, Jacoby Ford, Chris Givens, Keshawn Martin, Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington, Justin Hardy
• Hits [12]:  Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Mike Williams (2010), Cecil Shorts, Travis Benjamin, Jarius Wright, Martavis Bryant, Jamison Crowder, Demarcus Robinson, Dede Westbrook

Round 5 (53 WRs)

• Busts [28]:  Airese Currie, Larry Brackins, Rasheed Marshall, Marques Hagans, Aundrae Allison, David Clowney, Roy Hall, Kenny Moore, Matthew Slater, Kenny McKinley, Jarrett Dillard, Brooks Foster, David Reed, Kerry Meier, Kealoah Pilares, Danny Coale, Juron Criner, Devin Street, Jared Abbrederis, Rashad Greene, Tony Lippett, Kenny Bell, Keith Mumphery, Jordan Payton, Trevor Davis, Shelton Gibson, Rodney Adams, DeAngelo Yancey
• To Be Determined [3]:  Isaiah McKenzie, Daurice Fountain, Jordan Lasley
• Near Hit [6]:  Legedu Naanee, Denarius Moore, Niles Paul, Denard Robinson, Ryan Grant, Rashard Higgins
• Hits [13]:  Steve Breaston, Johnny Knox, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Kerley, Marvin Jones, Kenny Stills, Stefon Diggs, JJ Nelson, Tajae Sharpe, Tyreke Hill, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Hunter Renfrow, Darius Slayton

 

Totals by Percentage (Bust/Hit only)

• Round 1:  Bust  - 25 % ; Hit - 23 %
• Round 2:  Bust - 30 % ;  Hit - 32 %
• Round 3:  Bust - 46 % ; Hit - 35 %
• Round 4:  Bust - 49 % ; Hit - 16 %
• Round 5:  Bust - 53 %; Hit - 25 %

 

Conclusions

So what can we take from this information?  It appears WR has very mixed results in the 1st round.  A much lower bust rate than rounds 3-5, sure, but its far from a sure thing that you're going to land an elite WR in the 1st.  Teams get enamored by speed/size attributes in the 1st and over-value certain receivers, so this is not a big surprise. 

The 2nd round appears to be the "money round" for receivers.  Sure, you're not likely to find a potential future HOFer here like you could in the 1st (Ex - Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones).  But quite a few multi-year Pro Bowlers/WR1s have slipped to this round, with the bust rate still being fairly low.  This year's draft is no better of an example where we should see quality WR's be available in Round 2.  

The bust rate shoots up in Rounds 3-5, even when being very conservative about labeling a player a "bust" here.  The hit rate is actually very good in Round 3, but the ceiling of some of the names that have gone there has been limited.  A solid WR2 is about the best you can hope for in a typical year.  Again, this year's draft class is far from ordinary, so keep that in mind for Round 3.  Rounds 4-5 are where the "dead zone" starts for receivers.  The best of this group, Tyreke Hill, only fell this far due to character concerns that he has certainly not quelled.  

Thanks for doing this...Super interesting.  And clearly a lot of work.

I would never ask you to make this effort again but it would be interesting to see what OL looks like.

I mean with WR seemingly a quality 2nd round move - it makes me feel even more confident the call is to go OL in the first and WR in the second.  Especially in a draft this deep.

Just too bad you love JD so much JK...

[GreenFish]

Nice work. Looks like 2nd round is the round. Wait a second, this might not hold for the Jets (Devin Smith Stephen Hill). Even when we do things right we mess up. I hate the Jets!! Rant over.

I think it’s hard for first round WR to live up to their 1st round status. WR have a high bust rate. At least one of these guys that we think is a number 1 will bust. OL on the other hand is a much safer pick. OL early and double up on WR in day 2 range might be best.

[sec101row23]

Lots of poor evals on a lot of those highly drafted busts.  Those GMs deserved the results they got.  It’s not rocket science, stick to the fundamentals.  

[GreenReaper]

Jets need something close to a #1 receiver almost as much as it needs tackles. 

It's more likely you can get the OL fixes needed in rounds 2-4, to give Darnold protection and help the running game.  Then it is in getting the scary difference maker needed at WR with picks 2-4.  Receivers that need some development and can be solid-good yea.  But difference makers that Jets sorley need...IMO...that's harder to accomplish. 

I've seen several mocks having Jets end up taking Brandon Aiyuk and Laviska Shenault.  Rather then the more speedy playmakers JD wants.  Like Tee Higgins or Denzel Mims.  You may have to move up and burn picks to get those guys.  Which would be counter productive to acquiring as much talent possible to restock the team. 

I want Jets to come out of this draft with a balanced offense that can compete for the wide open AFCE.  Cause Jets have the QB in Darnold to compete for the division...now!  To accomplish this he needs not Just protection but a scary weapon at receiver for opposing defenses to worry about.  To help last years 32nd ranked offense into something more respectable.  One that can be in better balance with GW's D.

Jeudy is one of the most extraordinary route runners in the history of the draft.  A high IQ football player.  Who can read the defense and quickly break his route, to find the open spots on the field...and help make completions.  Darnold on the move...looking downfield...needs this kind of receiver badly.  If Gase's passing game is to succeed...he needs to game plan with that kind of scary playmaker too.  Not developmental guys who may be helpful down the road.  Not a Aiyuk or a Shenault type for sure. Even though this may be a  plentiful year for drafting good receivers. To get the type of wideout needed for Jets offensive need...isn't like picking apples during season...where you just pluck the ones you want.  Jets need a #1 WR...not a slot or a developmental one.  They need one ready with star potential that can play now...like Jeudy.  This is what I want:

Download video

 

 

Todd McShay has Jets drafting Jeudy at #11.  If Jets stay there...I'm definitely on board with it. 

JD said at his recent presser, that he's going to continue to address OL and playmakers.  In just a few weeks...we'll find out which he addresses first.        

[Paradis]

This is good stuff. Need to digest all the work put in - and report back. 

[Paradis]

28 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Lots of poor evals on a lot of those highly drafted busts.  Those GMs deserved the results they got.  It’s not rocket science, stick to the fundamentals.  

lol i'm about to post the exact same sentiment in the other thread... Who ever thought AJ Jenkins was a good 1st pick? Tavon Austin?... Doctson?... 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Thanks for doing this...Super interesting.  And clearly a lot of work.

I would never ask you to make this effort again but it would be interesting to see what OL looks like.

I mean with WR seemingly a quality 2nd round move - it makes me feel even more confident the call is to go OL in the first and WR in the second.  Especially in a draft this deep.

Just too bad you love JD so much JK...

 

I think OL is a lot clearer, and your thread kind of established that.  Quality OT's are hard to find outside of the 1st round.  Starting-caliber Interior OL can be found throughout the draft.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, GreenFish said:

Nice work. Looks like 2nd round is the round. Wait a second, this might not hold for the Jets (Devin Smith Stephen Hill). Even when we do things right we mess up. I hate the Jets!! Rant over.

I think it’s hard for first round WR to live up to their 1st round status. WR have a high bust rate. At least one of these guys that we think is a number 1 will bust. OL on the other hand is a much safer pick. OL early and double up on WR in day 2 range might be best.

 

If we had just taken Alshon Jeffery over Stephen Hill in 2012, our WR situation would have been worlds better for nearly a decade.  Ugh.  

The Devin Smith pick wasn't quite as bad, because there weren't any super obvious WR's to take there.  Fellow bust Dorial Green-Beckham went a few picks later, and the next good WR to get taken was Tyler Lockett in the 3rd.  Smith would have been a pretty good one if he could have only stayed healthy...

Still though.  Ugh.

[Jetsfan80]

37 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

Jets need something close to a #1 receiver almost as much as it needs tackles. 

It's more likely you can get the OL fixes needed in rounds 2-4, to give Darnold protection and help the running game. 

At C and G, sure.  But not at OT.  

Taking a cursory look at OT from 2014-18, you'll find the following:

• 2014:  2 quality OT's taken in the 1st (Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan).  Only 1 the rest of the draft (Charles Leno).
• 2015:  No quality OT's in the 1st.  But only 1 the rest of the draft (Rob Havenstein) 
• 2016:  4 quality OT's in the 1st (Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil, Taylor Decker).  None the rest of the draft.
• 2017:  2 quality OT's in the 1st (Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk).  2 the rest of the draft (Cam Robinson, Sam Tevi).  
• 2018:  2 quality OT's in the 1st (MIke McGlinchey, Kolton Miller).  2 the rest of the draft (Brian O'Neill, Orlando Brown).

Tallying that up, that's 10 quality OT's in the 1st round over a 5-year period, 6 total in Rounds 2-7. 

[Greenseed4]

I guarantee some of the WRs taken in the 2nd round will go on to have incredible careers.  I just don’t know how many will be found at or beyond pick #48.

 

 

[GreenReaper]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

At C and G, sure.  But not at OT.  

Taking a cursory look at OT from 2014-18, you'll find the following:

• 2014:  2 quality OT's taken in the 1st (Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan).  Only 1 the rest of the draft (Charles Leno).
• 2015:  No quality OT's in the 1st.  But only 1 the rest of the draft (Rob Havenstein) 
• 2016:  4 quality OT's in the 1st (Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil, Taylor Decker).  None the rest of the draft.
• 2017:  2 quality OT's in the 1st (Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk).  2 the rest of the draft (Cam Robinson, Sam Tevi).  
• 2018:  2 quality OT's in the 1st (MIke McGlinchey, Kolton Miller).  2 the rest of the draft (Brian O'Neill, Orlando Brown).

Tallying that up, that's 10 quality OT's in the 1st round over a 5-year period, 6 total in Rounds 2-7. 

I lost what I wanted to post!  PC problems!

IndianaJet on pg. 30 of mock discussion thread picked at #11 Ruggs, and at #48 Ezra Cleveland.  Though I preferred Jeudy...Ruggs was my 2nd choice there.   JD doing this would be more to my liking, then switching it the other way around and trying to fill #1 receiver in rounds 2-3. 

Outside of the top 4 tackles, nobody can say how JD rates the other 4-5 OTs on his Big Board.  Some may surprisingly be not that far down from the top 4.

Besides Ezra Cleveland, he could pick in rounds 2-4 any of the following if available:

Austin Jackson, Josh Jones, Isaiah Wilson, Prince Tega Wanogho, Lucas Niang, Matt Peart, Ben Bartch, and I'll stop there.

Two of these tackles could be picked between rounds 2-4.  He could value playmakers like Jeudy and Ruggs more valuable at pick #11 then the one or two remaining tackles still available at that spot.  He may trade down too.  

Even though OT may be the position of most need.  IMO...Jerry Jeudi is the player needed most at pick #11.

Don't know if this can be viewed...here is those IndianaJets picks he made:

 

[JustInFudge]

This is pretty good work 80.  Definitely interesting.

I would argue the classification of some players but no biggie.  Pretty fair overall.  

A grading system would probably work better something in where you taking into consideration how high they were taken vs. their production vs. league average in that draft range, etc.  For example; Stephon Diggs should be better than a "hit" and in the same category as Johnny Knox who was a flash in the pan.  That would be a ton of work but those 2 picks should not be in the same categorization and I think it applies is other situations as well but overall, I think the argument wouldnt be skewed to much in either direction. 

 

[rangerous]

nice list.  speaks to how bad idzik and mac were at drafting players.  4 wr's in the 3rd and 4th rounds and 4 complete busts.

[Jetsfan80]

This is pretty good work 80.  Definitely interesting.
I would argue the classification of some players but no biggie.  Pretty fair overall.  
A grading system would probably work better something in where you taking into consideration how high they were taken vs. their production vs. league average in that draft range, etc.  For example; Stephon Diggs should be better than a "hit" and in the same category as Johnny Knox who was a flash in the pan.  That would be a ton of work but those 2 picks should not be in the same categorization and I think it applies is other situations as well but overall, I think the argument wouldnt be skewed to much in either direction. 
 

For sure. I was using a rudimentary metric and rating system to save time. I have the spreadsheet available for anyone who’d like to take up that mantle.

Ultimately I felt the sample size was large enough where that stuff wouldn’t matter a whole lot.

[Jetster]

What I love about Jeudy is his innate route running ability & the way he uses his steps so seamlessly to throw off the CB. This guy would open everything up for Darnold, Crowder would be a PITA & the Herndon factor will be like getting another player because he missed the whole season & Perriman & Doctson duke it out for #3. Bell & Macfarland (#5) would be an awesome RB combo, bring back Powell cheap for backup experience to bring Anthony MacFarland up to speed in his blocking assignments (Both Bell & Powell are good blockers). 

[jetstream23]

18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Round 1 (53 WRs)

• Busts [13]:  Troy Williamson, Craig Davis, Jonathan Baldwin, Justin Blackmon, AJ Jenkins, Mike Williams (2005), Anthony Gonzalez, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell

Interesting how, if the Jets draft a WR in Round 1, they'd then have THREE 1st rounder at WR on the team.

[jetstream23]

15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

At C and G, sure.  But not at OT.  

Taking a cursory look at OT from 2014-18, you'll find the following:

• 2014:  2 quality OT's taken in the 1st (Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan).  Only 1 the rest of the draft (Charles Leno).
• 2015:  No quality OT's in the 1st.  But only 1 the rest of the draft (Rob Havenstein) 
• 2016:  4 quality OT's in the 1st (Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil, Taylor Decker).  None the rest of the draft.
• 2017:  2 quality OT's in the 1st (Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk).  2 the rest of the draft (Cam Robinson, Sam Tevi).  
• 2018:  2 quality OT's in the 1st (MIke McGlinchey, Kolton Miller).  2 the rest of the draft (Brian O'Neill, Orlando Brown).

Tallying that up, that's 10 quality OT's in the 1st round over a 5-year period, 6 total in Rounds 2-7. 

It's just one data point but the Jets got an 8-year starter at LT in 1998 when they drafted Jason Fabini in Round 4.  Yes, that's an exception and not the rule, but I see several quality zone-blocking OTs in this Draft that could be available in Round 2.... Josh Jones, Prince Wanogho, Lucas Niang, Austin Jackson, and Matthew Peart.  Some are certainly better than others and one or two might be 3rd rounders, but these guys all have potential in a ZBS.  (Isaiah Wilson is not a fit for what Douglas and Gase seem to be looking for). 

And if you're looking for a sneaky OG pick if the Jets go that way in the 3rd round, check out Jonah Jackson.

[32EBoozer]

20 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

True, but if Perriman had been a 2nd rounder or later he would not have been on the "bust" list.  Though he wouldn't have been a "hit" either unless he was a 3rd rounder or later.

 

[Losmeister]

that was exhaustive and exhausting...

fanx, 80!

[Losmeister]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

Perriman & Doctson duke it out for #3.

pillow fight

[Jetsfan80]

It's just one data point but the Jets got an 8-year starter at LT in 1998 when they drafted Jason Fabini in Round 4.  Yes, that's an exception and not the rule, but I see several quality zone-blocking OTs in this Draft that could be available in Round 2.... Josh Jones, Prince Wanogho, Lucas Niang, Austin Jackson, and Matthew Peart.  Some are certainly better than others and one or two might be 3rd rounders, but these guys all have potential in a ZBS.  (Isaiah Wilson is not a fit for what Douglas and Gase seem to be looking for). 
And if you're looking for a sneaky OG pick if the Jets go that way in the 3rd round, check out Jonah Jackson.

The fact that you had to go back that far underscores what is different about today’s game compared to 1998: it’s never been more difficult to evaluate the OT position because of all the spread offenses in the college game.

Because this year’s OT class seems fairly deep, there’s definitely a higher chance we get a solid OT in round 2 than in typical years. But I’d rather not take that chance if we can get one we really like in the 1st.

But again, I’m also advocating either trading Adams OR trading down. We need flexibility so we can address our offensive needs while still adding talent on defense.

[Jetsfan80]

 

The larger point is we weren’t the ones who burned a 1st on Perriman. We just got him on a cheap 1-year deal. Nothing wrong with that. Same as the Doctson pickup.

 

Then again, JD scouted Perriman when he was in Baltimore, so....

[Jetsfan80]

On 4/4/2020 at 10:42 PM, Greenseed4 said:

I guarantee some of the WRs taken in the 2nd round will go on to have incredible careers.  I just don’t know how many will be found at or beyond pick #48.

This is why, as I've been saying in other threads, I'd like to trade BACK from 11, then trade UP to get back into the 1st round so we end up with two 1sts.  An OT at 16 and a WR at the back end of the 1st would be ideal.  

[#27TheDominator]

On 4/4/2020 at 9:53 PM, Paradis said:

lol i'm about to post the exact same sentiment in the other thread... Who ever thought AJ Jenkins was a good 1st pick? Tavon Austin?... Doctson?... 

I'm not sure.  Belichick thought that Jonathan Baldwin was basically the same player as Julio Jones and the Niners were able to get him for Jenkins a year after the draft. 

10 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Interesting how, if the Jets draft a WR in Round 1, they'd then have THREE 1st rounder at WR on the team.

At least two of them suck!  Yay!

On 4/4/2020 at 7:11 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

True, but if Perriman had been a 2nd rounder or later he would not have been on the "bust" list.  Though he wouldn't have been a "hit" either unless he was a 3rd rounder or later.

At this stage, for what we're paying Perriman, he was a worthwhile pickup.  Especially if he can capture the magic from the tail-end of the 2019 season.  

Almost as good as Marquez Valdes-Scantling!

[#27TheDominator]

16 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is why, as I've been saying in other threads, I'd like to trade BACK from 11, then trade UP to get back into the 1st round so we end up with two 1sts.  An OT at 16 and a WR at the back end of the 1st would be ideal.  

The hidden advantage of this is the 5th year option. That was one reason having the last picks in the first round is better than having the first picks in the 2nd.