Jack Straw Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Starting Quarterbacks Picked in the 1st Round 1) J.P. Losman 2) Kyle Boller 3) Carson Palmer 4) David Carr 5) Peyton Manning 6) Byron Leftwich 7) Chad Pennington 8) Kerry Collins 9) Ben Roethlisberger 10) Steve McNair 11) Michael Vick 12) Rex Grossman 13) Drew Bledsoe 14) Joey Harrington 15) Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers 16) Daunte Culpepper 17) Eli Manning 18) Donovan McNabb 19) Alex Smith 20) Trent Dilfer 62.5% of Starting Quarterbacks were picked in the first round ** Philip Rivers & Jason Campbell could step in next year and become starting QB's, but we're not added to the list because they have not yet been starters in the NFL.** ***Trent Dilfer lost his starting job in 2005, but started 11 games. This list are players who began the 2005 season as starters for their respective teams. In order to be a "starter," the coach must chose to start the player and not be forced into it (injuries to starting QB). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Staring Quarterbacks in the NFL picked in the 2nd round Jake Plummer Drew Brees Brian Griese 9.5% of Starting Quarterbacks were picked in the 2nd round -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Starting Quarterbacks picked in the 4th round Aaron Brooks 3% of Starting Quarterbacks were picked in the 4th round -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Starting Quarterbacks picked in the 5th round Mark Brunell 3% of Starting Quarterbacks were picked in the 5th round -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Starting Quarterbacks picked in the 6th round Tom Brady Marc Bulger Matt Hasselbeck 9.5% of Starting Quarterbacks were picked in the 6th round -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Starting Quarterbacks picked in the 7th round Gus Ferotte 3% of Starting Quarterbacks were picked in the 7th round -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Starting Quarterbacks picked in the 8th Round Trent Green Undrafted Kurt Warner Jake Delhomme 9.5% of Starting Quarterbacks were undrafted -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The idea of picking a "developmental quarterback" in the late rounds is somethings several posters on this board have suggested. While gems can be found in the late rounds (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Trent Green, Jake Delhomme), it is highly unlikely. The majority of star quarterbacks were picked in either the 1st or 2nd round. The reason I posted this is because a couple posters expressed interest in where the starting quarterbacks in the NFL were picked. Take this for what it is. I'm not trying to prove any points with this survey. Interpret it any way you want. I'm just interested in what people think of these results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 I was hoping we would go QB at the beginning of round 3...I guess that hasn't worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Ferraro Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 This is interesting. The stats seem to support that belief that it's very hard to find a starting QB after the first round. However, both starters in this year's Super Bowl were selected after the first round, and Brady was a 6th-round pick. I analyzed the Super Bowl winning QBs for this site a while ago, and the average draft position was 3rd round. I think the numbers are deceiving. The last few years have been bad for QBs, so you had to find one in the first round because there was no depth at the position. I think if you look around college football, that it turning around. I think we are heading into a period of solid QB play. These trends are cyclical at each position. You can see it at WR now. WR is in a major upswing. TE is also coming back where for a few years there were teams that didn't even have one or used the H-back instead. I think Safety is also on an upswing. On the downslope, you have DE. Think about how many teams need help getting to the QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Isnt it amazing how Kurt Warner was undrafted, and then went on to lead the team to a superbowl and the best offense in NFL history, winning two MVPs before the run was over and still so many people look towards drafting in the first round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 left out Favre - 2nd round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PFSIKH Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Nick I hear what you are saying about the given strength of any one position is cyclical and dictated by how the game is played in any given year. However, while it appears that the first round is where you get a starting QB from, there is more to it then that. Only, (3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 16, 17 and 19) will or have filled expectations with their drafting teams and that is giving the benefit of the doubt to Vick, Eli, Leftwich, Dante and even McNabb. It should not be a surprise that a large number of QBs from the later runds are the more successful. They might have achip on their shoulder, be motivated to improve and actually get time to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny green balls Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Isnt it amazing how Kurt Warner was undrafted, and then went on to lead the team to a superbowl and the best offense in NFL history, winning two MVPs before the run was over and still so many people look towards drafting in the first round it's about statistics. there will always be undervalued talent late but you are statistically more likely to get a good player in an earlier round. pointing to players who hit it big from later rounds doesn't disprove this. in fact, you said it yourself it's "amazing" that warner did what he did being undrafted because he was such an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 it's about statistics. there will always be undervalued talent late but you are statistically more likely to get a good player in an earlier round. pointing to players who hit it big from later rounds doesn't disprove this. in fact, you said it yourself it's "amazing" that warner did what he did being undrafted because he was such an anomaly. True, but people don't give a late-rounder as long of a leash or as many opportunities either. If Brady sucked his first few games his story would mirror that of Glenn Foley (the player, not the high school student). But if he's taken in the first round, he'll have countless opportunities to right the ship (Joey Harrington, Rex Grossman, Trent Dilfer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted February 15, 2006 Share Posted February 15, 2006 One thing to remember is if a team picks a QB in the first round it is presumed that he is the heir apparent for the position- some guys starting should not be starters or have been starting because of the coach and front office trying to prove they did not screw up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Straw Posted February 15, 2006 Author Share Posted February 15, 2006 It seemed like some people were interested in this, so I took it a step further. Every 1st Round Quarterback Picked Since 1995 Very Good/Excellent Starters Eli Manning Ben Roethlisberger Steve McNair Carson Palmer Donovan McNabb Daunte Culpepper Peyton Manning Michael Vick 42% Chance of Picking a Very Good/Excellent QB in the 1st round Solid Starters Byron Leftwich Kerry Collins Chad Pennington David Carr 21% Chance of Picking A Solid/Average Starter BUSTS Joey Harrington Kyle Boller Tim Couch Akili Smith Cade McNown Ryan Leaf Jim Druckenmiller 37% Chance of Picking A Bust WILL NOT BE USED IN CALCULATION DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE STILL "UNKNOWNS." Too Early to Tell Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Rex Grossman Patrick Ramsey J.P. Losman Philip Rivers Again, these statistics are just for the board to pick apart. I thought they we somewhat interesting and could give some insight as to how first round quarterbacks have turned out. The method of evaluating the quarterbacks was not scientific. I determined what a solid starter was and what a bust was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysxl1200c Posted February 15, 2006 Share Posted February 15, 2006 Too Early to Tell Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Rex Grossman Patrick Ramsey J.P. Losman Philip Rivers Awesome work. Based on the historical statistics and using the above list, 3 of those should pan out to be Excellent, 2(maybe 1) should be Solid Starters, and 1(maybe 2) will be busts. Care to take a shot? Excellent: Rivers Rodgers Campbell Good: Ramsey Grossman Bust: Smith Losman Interesting how the stats show boom or bust. The smallest category is the average solid starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smizzy Posted February 15, 2006 Share Posted February 15, 2006 It seemed like some people were interested in this, so I took it a step further. Every 1st Round Quarterback Picked Since 1995 Very Good/Excellent Starters Eli Manning Ben Roethlisberger Steve McNair Carson Palmer Donovan McNabb Daunte Culpepper Peyton Manning Michael Vick 42% Chance of Picking a Very Good/Excellent QB in the 1st round Solid Starters Byron Leftwich Kerry Collins Chad Pennington David Carr 21% Chance of Picking A Solid/Average Starter BUSTS Joey Harrington Kyle Boller Tim Couch Akili Smith Cade McNown Ryan Leaf Jim Druckenmiller 37% Chance of Picking A Bust WILL NOT BE USED IN CALCULATION DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE STILL "UNKNOWNS." Too Early to Tell Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Rex Grossman Patrick Ramsey J.P. Losman Philip Rivers Again, these statistics are just for the board to pick apart. I thought they we somewhat interesting and could give some insight as to how first round quarterbacks have turned out. The method of evaluating the quarterbacks was not scientific. I determined what a solid starter was and what a bust was. Somebody did their homework. welldone,WJ. Looks we're better off chancing it in rd one anyway. 4 is a good spot. Somebody is going to jump up the charts at the combine and we're going to be in a spot to land a very good player or hopefully someone will want that pick bad enough to waste it on Vince Young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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