"The Jets Run Every First Down"

[freestater]

4 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

I'm not sure who is claiming that "the Jets run every first down," but it is clearly not the case.

Just my anecdotal feelings, but the main sequence of plays for the Jets on offense this season has been:

1st and 10 - Incomplete pass
2nd and 10 - Breece run up the middle for zero yards
False start
3rd and 15 - Sack
Punt

 

[Charlie Brown]

6 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         

Date: 

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Houston	66.67%	55.81%	40.00%	68.24%	64.42%	57.40%
2	LA Chargers	65.16%	69.57%	76.47%	60.99%	70.87%	66.22%
3	Green Bay	63.84%	68.75%	62.50%	64.17%	63.46%	55.69%
4	Las Vegas	63.68%	75.00%	62.50%	63.06%	64.36%	56.27%
5	Cincinnati	63.31%	66.07%	57.89%	66.40%	60.16%	60.76%
6	NY Jets	63.21%	71.74%	75.00%	64.23%	61.43%	64.97%
7	Minnesota	63.08%	52.00%	56.25%	62.41%	63.78%	64.52%
8	Miami	62.78%	57.14%	50.00%	60.83%	64.38%	64.80%
9	Kansas City	61.05%	63.77%	66.67%	61.15%	60.96%	66.32%
10	Detroit	60.07%	58.93%	53.85%	60.84%	59.26%	60.64%
11	Seattle	60.00%	58.93%	64.71%	56.90%	62.79%	59.78%
11	Washington	60.00%	51.61%	45.45%	61.29%	58.87%	54.28%
13	Tampa Bay	59.83%	50.00%	50.00%	64.65%	56.15%	70.27%
14	Dallas	58.88%	60.26%	54.17%	62.09%	54.10%	56.44%
15	Jacksonville	58.24%	64.62%	80.00%	56.90%	59.31%	59.85%
16	LA Rams	57.95%	57.97%	58.33%	52.89%	62.24%	61.77%
17	New Orleans	57.94%	55.93%	57.14%	60.36%	56.03%	59.34%
18	Indianapolis	57.66%	57.81%	73.68%	55.28%	60.00%	62.26%
19	New England	56.22%	53.33%	78.57%	58.88%	53.64%	57.64%
20	Buffalo	55.14%	51.39%	57.14%	53.57%	56.58%	58.88%
21	Atlanta	54.58%	52.38%	65.22%	56.05%	52.38%	44.85%
22	Pittsburgh	54.38%	65.52%	55.56%	55.47%	52.50%	54.78%
23	San Francisco	54.14%	51.52%	63.16%	56.85%	51.39%	54.09%
24	Chicago	53.36%	50.79%	50.00%	51.54%	55.28%	39.21%
25	NY Giants	53.26%	56.41%	70.00%	44.93%	58.26%	49.11%
26	Arizona	52.97%	50.88%	38.89%	52.50%	53.45%	57.98%
27	Philadelphia	52.41%	64.06%	58.82%	50.00%	54.67%	47.72%
28	Carolina	51.69%	36.00%	25.00%	52.38%	51.32%	49.11%
29	Tennessee	51.20%	51.92%	48.00%	47.06%	55.14%	55.23%
30	Denver	49.35%	36.54%	47.37%	47.66%	51.49%	55.33%
31	Cleveland	49.21%	56.36%	68.75%	49.22%	49.19%	52.00%
32	Baltimore	48.54%	53.85%	73.91%	50.00%	46.72%	44.44%

A far more telling statistic than what you cite is the number of presnap motions that the Jets have used in their games!

Indeed, it is irrefutable that the Jets have used presnap motion at one of the lowest levels in the league, literally the bottom four in the NFL. 

However, it is telling that when the Jets have used presnap motion in more than 40% of their snaps, they have a 3-1 record with the lone loss being to Kansas City. 

What is amazing, is that the team knowing this fact, the Jets coaching staff was hell-bent on playing NOT TO WIN, but keep it close, and to go against the strengths of their QB, by not using presnap motion like 98% of the rest of the league, just madness IMO!

[Bowles Movement]

8 hours ago, Claymation said:

1st half of the season.

So basically we haven't been passing much on first down,  but the last 3 games with Boyle and then Zac they did a 180.

Thanks for clearing that up!!  

[Smashmouth]

6 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wonder how that breakdown changes when only looking at the first half, or even the first 3 quarters, before losing teams are chasing the winner when time remaining is a factor. Plus the opposite for teams that are typically leading late, who likely run-run-run (or anyway, run on 1st downs) when they're protecting a lead.

Otherwise it's got the cart before the horse, at least a little bit. Like when Parcells said he wanted to run the ball 500x because he did an analysis and teams that ran at least 500x tended to make the playoffs. That was like saying nighttime darkness typically causes the earth to rotate away from the sun.

Maybe more like he wanted to be in a position to run the ball 500 x like playing with that lead you talked about 

[Plen T]

lol stats with 0 context 

the Jets 100% run it every first down until they are required to throw it non stop and abandon the run 

[Bleedin Green]

Very shocking to see everyone believe that any available information only proves their own previous perspective to be the correct one.

Such an uncommon occurrence.

[BornJetsFan1983]

11 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         

Date: 

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Houston	66.67%	55.81%	40.00%	68.24%	64.42%	57.40%
2	LA Chargers	65.16%	69.57%	76.47%	60.99%	70.87%	66.22%
3	Green Bay	63.84%	68.75%	62.50%	64.17%	63.46%	55.69%
4	Las Vegas	63.68%	75.00%	62.50%	63.06%	64.36%	56.27%
5	Cincinnati	63.31%	66.07%	57.89%	66.40%	60.16%	60.76%
6	NY Jets	63.21%	71.74%	75.00%	64.23%	61.43%	64.97%
7	Minnesota	63.08%	52.00%	56.25%	62.41%	63.78%	64.52%
8	Miami	62.78%	57.14%	50.00%	60.83%	64.38%	64.80%
9	Kansas City	61.05%	63.77%	66.67%	61.15%	60.96%	66.32%
10	Detroit	60.07%	58.93%	53.85%	60.84%	59.26%	60.64%
11	Seattle	60.00%	58.93%	64.71%	56.90%	62.79%	59.78%
11	Washington	60.00%	51.61%	45.45%	61.29%	58.87%	54.28%
13	Tampa Bay	59.83%	50.00%	50.00%	64.65%	56.15%	70.27%
14	Dallas	58.88%	60.26%	54.17%	62.09%	54.10%	56.44%
15	Jacksonville	58.24%	64.62%	80.00%	56.90%	59.31%	59.85%
16	LA Rams	57.95%	57.97%	58.33%	52.89%	62.24%	61.77%
17	New Orleans	57.94%	55.93%	57.14%	60.36%	56.03%	59.34%
18	Indianapolis	57.66%	57.81%	73.68%	55.28%	60.00%	62.26%
19	New England	56.22%	53.33%	78.57%	58.88%	53.64%	57.64%
20	Buffalo	55.14%	51.39%	57.14%	53.57%	56.58%	58.88%
21	Atlanta	54.58%	52.38%	65.22%	56.05%	52.38%	44.85%
22	Pittsburgh	54.38%	65.52%	55.56%	55.47%	52.50%	54.78%
23	San Francisco	54.14%	51.52%	63.16%	56.85%	51.39%	54.09%
24	Chicago	53.36%	50.79%	50.00%	51.54%	55.28%	39.21%
25	NY Giants	53.26%	56.41%	70.00%	44.93%	58.26%	49.11%
26	Arizona	52.97%	50.88%	38.89%	52.50%	53.45%	57.98%
27	Philadelphia	52.41%	64.06%	58.82%	50.00%	54.67%	47.72%
28	Carolina	51.69%	36.00%	25.00%	52.38%	51.32%	49.11%
29	Tennessee	51.20%	51.92%	48.00%	47.06%	55.14%	55.23%
30	Denver	49.35%	36.54%	47.37%	47.66%	51.49%	55.33%
31	Cleveland	49.21%	56.36%	68.75%	49.22%	49.19%	52.00%
32	Baltimore	48.54%	53.85%	73.91%	50.00%	46.72%	44.44%

I think you missed the point, we run it all the time into loaded boxes and when defense knows and plays the run. So sure we maybe throwing on first downs but when the def is ready for a run we sure as make sure we run right directly into them.

Now this last game in the second half we got a little better. Not great but better let's hope it continues 

[Jdeet]

In the 1st half Sunday, the Jets had 10 first down plays. 

7 Rushes - 12 yards 

3 passes - 35 yards

Then, the 2nd half, we started with 5 straight 1st down passes. Getting the TD. 

Whatever the strategy was all season with Zach, it always seemed to be conservative runs in the 1st half, for the most part, on 1st downs. And when you cannot do anything running on 1st downs, it’s been 2nd and 9 or worse leading to our record breaking 3rd down failures. 

Add to that we lead the league in % of 1st down offensive penalties, where we are then forced to throw. 

Something happened at half time on Sunday. Whether it was a change in playcaller or just a simple wtf mentality of, let’s just let him sling it, something changed. And the Texans weren’t ready for it. Next thing you know, we score 2 TDs. 

They should come out throwing again on Sunday vs Miami. Any success will open up the run game. We have to reverse what defenses are expecting. We did in the 2nd half on Sunday and it led to success. 

[Sperm Edwards]

7 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Maybe more like he wanted to be in a position to run the ball 500 x like playing with that lead you talked about 

Nope. IIRC he said it between signing Martin and trading Murrell, as a rationale why he might keep both. There was no misinterpreting the context. Also don't discount he was a defensive coach first & foremost, and they all want to run the ball as much as possible: if you eat up more clock by running it, the other team's offense is on the field less and their scoring opportunities fewer. That was his cause & effect rationale, not that teams with a lead run the ball to wind down the clock more often.

[The Crusher]

19 hours ago, nycdan said:

To be fair, that may be influenced by the fact that we were generally down by two scores of more before the end of the 1st quarter in recent weeks (other than this past Sunday).

That’s exactly what they want us to think.