"Big deal. A win only costs us a couple of spots in the draft"

[TuscanyTile2]

Reminder that our pick drops in every single round.  And since we don't have a 2nd rounder, that 3rd rounder becomes very important.  Dropping a few spots in the 3rd and 4th round can end up costing us a key player.  

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Reminder that our pick drops in every single round.  And since we don't have a 2nd rounder, that 3rd rounder becomes very important.  Dropping a few spots in the 3rd and 4th round can end up costing us a key player.  

Terrible win. We won't get mhj or Alt now.

[bonkertons]

On 12/24/2023 at 9:15 PM, Barry McCockinner said:

Terrible win. We won't get mhj or Alt now.

MHJ hope has been gone for a while now.  Ever since the Texans win I think.  

 

Alt sure, but there's still a chance.  Alt or Fashanu, I should say.  You probably have to lose the next two but even if that doesn't happen, we should still be in range for a top WR or Bowers.  Maybe not Nabers but at least Odunze or whoever from that next group.  I'd prefer to just take the Ls but no matter what we should be getting a stud talent at a need position.  Even if we go with one of the RTs(which I hope we don't)

 

Right now we're at pick 9.  If you move up to 7 by the end of the season that should guarantee you one of the LTs or Nabers, I'd think.

[bonkertons]

Right now if I was going to mock the top-9:

1. CHI:  Caleb or Maye

2. ARI:  MHJ

3. WAS:  Maye or Caleb

4. NE:  Alt or Fashanu (I think in this scenario, if a team like WAS stays above them, they'll probably go after Cousins and take one of the elite LTs...or maybe they go with a cheaper stopgap UFA type to compete with Zappe)

5. NYG:  Daniels

6. LAC:  Kool-Aid or Arnold (CB)

7. TEN: Fashanu or Alt

8. CHI:  Turner/Latu/Verse

9. NYJ:  Nabers or Bowers

 

That's my "hopeful" version.  Chicago could easily take Nabers at 8.  They could use defensive help but they might prefer to add a 2nd elite weapon for their new QB.  The Chargers could decide to go LT and then TEN takes Nabers.  Chargers D is just so bad though, and IMO there are only a couple corners in this draft that would fall under the "potentially elite" category.  It would be wise to take your guy early instead of move down and risk missing out.  Hopefully we can at least jump the Bears, which will make me feel a bit better about our odds of getting a shot at one of Alt/Fashanu, Nabers, Bowers.  I think at 8, one of them will still be there.  I know some aren't considering Bowers an option, but he's such a unique talent.  I don't think it's as simple as "well we're decent at TE so we don't need him".  I think he opens up a lot of options offensively.

 

If we don't move up, the LTs are gone.  Worst case Bowers is gone as well.  In that scenario I'm more open to a trade down.  Let someone come up for Odunze, one of the top D players like Newton(who - and I'm sure I'll get killed for this - I wouldn't be upset if we took at this point in the draft if we miss out on those guys), or QB4 if a team doesn't want to risk banking on a guy to drop.  But yeah, trade down to like 16 or 17 and pick up a 2nd.  You should at least then be able to walk away with a pretty damn good WR in the 1st like Coleman, Legette, Egbuka, and then probably a guard who can step right in and start from day one in the 2nd(cut Tomlinson if it plays out like that) or a DT like Sweat or Jenkins who could do the same - step right in and help our run D.

 

But yeah, best case IMO is Alt/Fashanu.  Next best is Nabers.  Next best is Bowers.  I don't think there's any chance of Daniels anymore.  If those guys are gone, move down.  That said, we ain't beating Cleveland....they're way too hot and they're still fighting for playoff seeding.  Really just comes down to New England.  If we lose there as well, we should be 7 at worst.  Chicago has 2 very winnable games coming up.  Aside from that I'd expect us to leap at least one of the Giants, Chargers or Titans.  7 should guarantee us one of the previously mentioned guys.  

[BCJet]

Can someone please explain to me how on earth we should ever consider Brock Bowers unless its the second round (which he of course wont make it to).

A lot of what ive read on him is how athletic he is for his size. Well he is 1 inch shorter and 10 lbs lighter then Jeremy Ruckert, so ok, im sure he is a great athlete for the position but is he would need to test off the charts given that we arent talking about someone who has athleticism and is 6'6 260.

When I think of a TE's usage, aside from Kelce, all the best ones are excellent blockers which allows the offense to run OR pass when they are out there.  Someone like Kyle Pitts is 100% a WR in my mind as he doesnt create any sort of mismatch in the running game whereas Kittle may be a worse athlete then Pitts but he gives the entire SF offense a mismatch as they can run the ball very effectively when he is out there but he is also a good enough receiver to destroy LBs in coverage.  Bowers, from all accounts, is a good not great blocker so he would need to improve there to have his blocking skill set considered to be elite. 

Given all that, its hard for me to see this guy as worthy of a top 10 pick especially given that Conklin is under contract and is a good TE and Ruckert is criminally underused by this staff and is bigger then Bowers and is considered an excellent blocker and a good athlete.   

 

[PepPep]

On 12/26/2023 at 11:05 AM, bonkertons said:

Right now if I was going to mock the top-9:

1. CHI:  Caleb or Maye

2. ARI:  MHJ

3. WAS:  Maye or Caleb

4. NE:  Alt or Fashanu (I think in this scenario, if a team like WAS stays above them, they'll probably go after Cousins and take one of the elite LTs...or maybe they go with a cheaper stopgap UFA type to compete with Zappe)

5. NYG:  Daniels

6. LAC:  Kool-Aid or Arnold (CB)

7. TEN: Fashanu or Alt

8. CHI:  Turner/Latu/Verse

9. NYJ:  Nabers or Bowers

 

That's my "hopeful" version.  Chicago could easily take Nabers at 8.  They could use defensive help but they might prefer to add a 2nd elite weapon for their new QB.  The Chargers could decide to go LT and then TEN takes Nabers.  Chargers D is just so bad though, and IMO there are only a couple corners in this draft that would fall under the "potentially elite" category.  It would be wise to take your guy early instead of move down and risk missing out.  Hopefully we can at least jump the Bears, which will make me feel a bit better about our odds of getting a shot at one of Alt/Fashanu, Nabers, Bowers.  I think at 8, one of them will still be there.  I know some aren't considering Bowers an option, but he's such a unique talent.  I don't think it's as simple as "well we're decent at TE so we don't need him".  I think he opens up a lot of options offensively.

 

If we don't move up, the LTs are gone.  Worst case Bowers is gone as well.  In that scenario I'm more open to a trade down.  Let someone come up for Odunze, one of the top D players like Newton(who - and I'm sure I'll get killed for this - I wouldn't be upset if we took at this point in the draft if we miss out on those guys), or QB4 if a team doesn't want to risk banking on a guy to drop.  But yeah, trade down to like 16 or 17 and pick up a 2nd.  You should at least then be able to walk away with a pretty damn good WR in the 1st like Coleman, Legette, Egbuka, and then probably a guard who can step right in and start from day one in the 2nd(cut Tomlinson if it plays out like that) or a DT like Sweat or Jenkins who could do the same - step right in and help our run D.

 

But yeah, best case IMO is Alt/Fashanu.  Next best is Nabers.  Next best is Bowers.  I don't think there's any chance of Daniels anymore.  If those guys are gone, move down.  That said, we ain't beating Cleveland....they're way too hot and they're still fighting for playoff seeding.  Really just comes down to New England.  If we lose there as well, we should be 7 at worst.  Chicago has 2 very winnable games coming up.  Aside from that I'd expect us to leap at least one of the Giants, Chargers or Titans.  7 should guarantee us one of the previously mentioned guys.  

If we win any more meaningless games and end up out of the Alt/Fashanu/Nabers range, I think other than Bowers, you also have to consider JC Latham and Fuaga. I know these are RT prospects but so was Tristan Wirfs. Both of these guys are elite at their position and are probably plug and play prospects at RT. Absolute monsters in the run game. I would strongly consider either one.

[derp]

32 minutes ago, PepPep said:

If we win any more meaningless games and end up out of the Alt/Fashanu/Nabers range, I think other than Bowers, you also have to consider JC Latham and Fuaga. I know these are RT prospects but so was Tristan Wirfs. Both of these guys are elite at their position and are probably plug and play prospects at RT. Absolute monsters in the run game. I would strongly consider either one.

Curious to see how those guys test do after the season. Brandon Thorn who’s a big OL guy seems to think Fuaga lacks the lateral agility to play tackle. Combine will show what kind of athlete he is and more importantly he’s accepted a Senior Bowl invite so it’ll be great to see him there - hopefully he doesn’t back out. No problem with taking a high end RT though if that’s where those guys end up projecting. Odunze is the other one who’s be interesting in that range.

Wirfs being a RT prospect was overstated at the time. Iowa played him at RT because he was comfortable on both sides but their next best tackle was only comfortable on the left. He was easily a LT level athlete, just was a projection because he hadn’t played on that side. He’s transitioned well to the left side this year.

[bonkertons]

On 12/26/2023 at 1:03 PM, BCJet said:

Can someone please explain to me how on earth we should ever consider Brock Bowers unless its the second round (which he of course wont make it to).

A lot of what ive read on him is how athletic he is for his size. Well he is 1 inch shorter and 10 lbs lighter then Jeremy Ruckert, so ok, im sure he is a great athlete for the position but is he would need to test off the charts given that we arent talking about someone who has athleticism and is 6'6 260.

When I think of a TE's usage, aside from Kelce, all the best ones are excellent blockers which allows the offense to run OR pass when they are out there.  Someone like Kyle Pitts is 100% a WR in my mind as he doesnt create any sort of mismatch in the running game whereas Kittle may be a worse athlete then Pitts but he gives the entire SF offense a mismatch as they can run the ball very effectively when he is out there but he is also a good enough receiver to destroy LBs in coverage.  Bowers, from all accounts, is a good not great blocker so he would need to improve there to have his blocking skill set considered to be elite. 

Given all that, its hard for me to see this guy as worthy of a top 10 pick especially given that Conklin is under contract and is a good TE and Ruckert is criminally underused by this staff and is bigger then Bowers and is considered an excellent blocker and a good athlete.   

 

Bowers actually would fall under the "great" category when it comes to blocking, despite his size.  Maybe his size drops him a bit at the next level but at the very least he should be a solid blocking TE in the NFL.  He's a straight up weapon who you could line up anywhere you want - TE, WR, FB.  We've seen many tight ends who are good at getting open, and who also have good hands.  Guys like Bowers though who are elite after the catch are IMO what separate the good TEs from the great ones.  I don't think Tyler Conklin should ever be a reason why you pass on a guy like Bowers.  I'm sure you could figure out a way to get all 3 of those guys on the field for the majority of each game in year one if you really had to.  He'd probably become one of Rodgers' favorite targets from day one.  

 

IMO there's a clear top-8 of offensive players.  Guys who could very well be the first 8 players taken.  In no particular order, Caleb, Maye, Daniels, Alt, Fashanu, MHJ, Nabers, Bowers.  Any one of those guys would be a massive get for us, and fill a huge need.  Even Bowers.  Figures right now we're sitting at pick 9.  Maybe we'll luck out and move up a couple spots.  That said, we can do a lot worse than Brock Bowers in this draft.  He'll be a massive fan favorite here if we were lucky enough to draft him.  

[Vader]

Taking a TE top ten is almost as bad as taking a safety top ten. And this team should never do any of that

[PepPep]

On 12/28/2023 at 8:43 AM, bonkertons said:

Bowers actually would fall under the "great" category when it comes to blocking, despite his size.  Maybe his size drops him a bit at the next level but at the very least he should be a solid blocking TE in the NFL.  He's a straight up weapon who you could line up anywhere you want - TE, WR, FB.  We've seen many tight ends who are good at getting open, and who also have good hands.  Guys like Bowers though who are elite after the catch are IMO what separate the good TEs from the great ones.  I don't think Tyler Conklin should ever be a reason why you pass on a guy like Bowers.  I'm sure you could figure out a way to get all 3 of those guys on the field for the majority of each game in year one if you really had to.  He'd probably become one of Rodgers' favorite targets from day one.  

 

IMO there's a clear top-8 of offensive players.  Guys who could very well be the first 8 players taken.  In no particular order, Caleb, Maye, Daniels, Alt, Fashanu, MHJ, Nabers, Bowers.  Any one of those guys would be a massive get for us, and fill a huge need.  Even Bowers.  Figures right now we're sitting at pick 9.  Maybe we'll luck out and move up a couple spots.  That said, we can do a lot worse than Brock Bowers in this draft.  He'll be a massive fan favorite here if we were lucky enough to draft him.  

I would not hate Bowers. However, the question is, do you take him over any of those other 7 prospects you list. Nabers or Alt or even Daniels (I know the Jets are not taking a QB)? And what if Latham and/or Fuaga test off the charts and their stock climbs? Scouts start whispering that these guys could move over to LT eventually and may even be just as good of a prospect as Alt. This is when things get tough when it comes to taking a TE. 

I think with the loss on Thursday we moved up to 8. And if we lose to the Pats we have a good shot at moving up as high as #6 - if Tenn and the Chargers win one more game (which, of course, they may not). But at #6, It's hard to imagine that the Jets miss out on Alt. This is what I am hoping for. If Alt is there, its a no-brainer, slam dunk pick, IMO.  

CHI- Caleb/Maye

ARI- MHJ

WASH- Caleb/Maye

NE- JD

NYG- Fashanu

NYJ- Alt

[bonkertons]

18 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I would not hate Bowers. However, the question is, do you take him over any of those other 7 prospects you list. Nabers or Alt or even Daniels (I know the Jets are not taking a QB)? And what if Latham and/or Fuaga test off the charts and their stock climbs? Scouts start whispering that these guys could move over to LT eventually and may even be just as good of a prospect as Alt. This is when things get tough when it comes to taking a TE. 

I think with the loss on Thursday we moved up to 8. And if we lose to the Pats we have a good shot at moving up as high as #6 - if Tenn and the Chargers win one more game (which, of course, they may not). But at #6, It's hard to imagine that the Jets miss out on Alt. This is what I am hoping for. If Alt is there, its a no-brainer, slam dunk pick, IMO.  

CHI- Caleb/Maye

ARI- MHJ

WASH- Caleb/Maye

NE- JD

NYG- Fashanu

NYJ- Alt

I wouldn't pass on any of those guys for Bowers, but if they're all gone(us at pick 8 or 9), then yeah I'm 100% taking Bowers over Odunze or the RT prospects.  I'm sure they will test well, especially Latham.  I just have little interest in taking a RT in the top-10.  If we trade down a bit and pick up another 2nd, sure.  I can live with that.  I'd imagine you could move down to 15 or 16, pick up a 2nd, and still be able to take Latham, Fuaga, Mims(if he declares), Odunze, or your choice of any other WR most likely(Coleman, Egbuka, Legette, Devontez Walker, or whoever else makes sense in that range).

 

I have a feeling though if New England misses out on the top-3, they might go after a guy like Cousins in free agency.  Either that or wait on the 2nd tier of QBs(Nix, JJ, Penix) and just take Alt with their 1st.  He seems to me like a New England type pick and would fit a massive need for them as well.  So something like:

 

1. CHI(CAR):  Caleb

2. ARI:  MHJr

3. WAS:  Maye

4. NE:  Alt

5. NYG: Daniels

6. LAC: Nabers

7. TEN: Olu

 

MAYBE it's possible the Chargers take a defensive player instead of Nabers.  They did just draft Quentin Johnston, who's been a disappointment so far.  I think they'd prefer a weapon regardless, but it's definitely possible they decide to improve their putrid defense(especially if they end up moving a guy like Bosa).  If that happens then yeah, one of Nabers or Olu should be there for you.  Our best bet though obviously is to lose next week, and cross our fingers that one or both of the Titans and Chargers win one more game.  Worst case though, as long as we leap Chicago, that should guarantee us one from that top group, even if it is Bowers.

[Augustiniak]

30 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I would not hate Bowers. However, the question is, do you take him over any of those other 7 prospects you list. Nabers or Alt or even Daniels (I know the Jets are not taking a QB)? And what if Latham and/or Fuaga test off the charts and their stock climbs? Scouts start whispering that these guys could move over to LT eventually and may even be just as good of a prospect as Alt. This is when things get tough when it comes to taking a TE. 

I think with the loss on Thursday we moved up to 8. And if we lose to the Pats we have a good shot at moving up as high as #6 - if Tenn and the Chargers win one more game (which, of course, they may not). But at #6, It's hard to imagine that the Jets miss out on Alt. This is what I am hoping for. If Alt is there, its a no-brainer, slam dunk pick, IMO.  

CHI- Caleb/Maye

ARI- MHJ

WASH- Caleb/Maye

NE- JD

NYG- Fashanu

NYJ- Alt

the ne/nyj game matters, obviously.  but if the jets are top 5 they will get a top 2 LT, if not, they're reliant on teams that want defense, a qb or a top wr.  it's possible a LT falls to 6-8 but it's iffy.

[PepPep]

7 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I'd imagine you could move down to 15 or 16, pick up a 2nd, and still be able to take Latham, Fuaga, Mims(if he declares), Odunze, or your choice of any other WR most likely(Coleman, Egbuka, Legette, Devontez Walker, or whoever else makes sense in that range).

In general I agree with your post. But I also think there is a difference between Latham, Fuaga, and Mims. I would not just bulk them all together and assume they would be there in the teens and whichever one is there would be fine in a trade down scenario lololol. To me, Latham is blue chip prospect that is plug and play at RT and could possibly eventually move over to LT. Fuaga is probably a RT in the NFL but also a blue chip plug and play prospect. Mims is extremely talented and could play LT but is also super raw. Not a plug and play prospect. Latham and Fuaga probably won't make it to the late teens. Mims probably will.  

[bonkertons]

Mims could end up being the best of the 3.  I'm pretty confident that if he returns he'll be the Alt or Fashanu of next year's class, probably a top-5 pick or close to it.  I see Latham as a safe bet to be a high-end RT, with Fuaga not far behind but also having higher upside.  I think both those guys are pretty close but yeah, Latham would be my preference.  I think both can step in next year and be solid NFL RTs though.  Same with Mims.  Only thing that concerns me with Mims is his injury history.  We don't need more injury prone guys on our OL, so he wouldn't be my preference...not at least until he puts a full healthy season under his belt.  I do think Mims has the best upside at LT of these 3 guys though, for what it's worth.

 

But yeah, just to put things in perspective if we move down to 15-16, even if you exclude Mims:  Caleb, Maye, Daniels, Olu, Alt, MHJr, Nabers, Bowers, Odunze, Latham, Fuaga.  That's 11 players, all on the offensive side of the ball.  Add in the defensive guys like Newton, Koolaid, Turner, Arnold, DeJean, Verse, Latu.  IMO there's a good chance someone from that group of 11 will be there at 15 or 16...you just need 4 or 5 defensive players to get drafted in the first 14 or 15 picks.  Not to mention the possibility of a team taking QB4 in the pick 10-15 range(ATL and MIN being the most likely).  I think there's a good chance that one of Odunze, Latham or Fuaga make it to 15.

 

Worst case though you move down and those guys are gone, just take your choice of the next best WR.  There are some really good ones.  This 1st and 2nd round are pretty stocked with high-end WR talent.  Ideally though, best case scenario, we end up picking 6, 7, or 8 and it makes more sense to stay put.  

[Augustiniak]

2 hours ago, bonkertons said:

Mims could end up being the best of the 3.  I'm pretty confident that if he returns he'll be the Alt or Fashanu of next year's class, probably a top-5 pick or close to it.  I see Latham as a safe bet to be a high-end RT, with Fuaga not far behind but also having higher upside.  I think both those guys are pretty close but yeah, Latham would be my preference.  I think both can step in next year and be solid NFL RTs though.  Same with Mims.  Only thing that concerns me with Mims is his injury history.  We don't need more injury prone guys on our OL, so he wouldn't be my preference...not at least until he puts a full healthy season under his belt.  I do think Mims has the best upside at LT of these 3 guys though, for what it's worth.

 

But yeah, just to put things in perspective if we move down to 15-16, even if you exclude Mims:  Caleb, Maye, Daniels, Olu, Alt, MHJr, Nabers, Bowers, Odunze, Latham, Fuaga.  That's 11 players, all on the offensive side of the ball.  Add in the defensive guys like Newton, Koolaid, Turner, Arnold, DeJean, Verse, Latu.  IMO there's a good chance someone from that group of 11 will be there at 15 or 16...you just need 4 or 5 defensive players to get drafted in the first 14 or 15 picks.  Not to mention the possibility of a team taking QB4 in the pick 10-15 range(ATL and MIN being the most likely).  I think there's a good chance that one of Odunze, Latham or Fuaga make it to 15.

 

Worst case though you move down and those guys are gone, just take your choice of the next best WR.  There are some really good ones.  This 1st and 2nd round are pretty stocked with high-end WR talent.  Ideally though, best case scenario, we end up picking 6, 7, or 8 and it makes more sense to stay put.  

Can’t see the jets taking someone that large after the becton situation.  I can see them going more athletic and leaner with better feet.