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Defense still wins championships (graph)


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Thanks, interesting read and data.  I think we overthink this, myself included, what it right in front of us.

In todays NFL it seems you can only win the SB with 2 of the 3 models.

Elite QB - Paid as Elite (Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Jackson (?))

Rookie Contract or Veteran QB - paid accordingly but not overpaid. Mahomes again, Hurts, Burrow, Purdy, Goff

You cannot win or no one has yet paying elite QB money to non a Elite QB.  Prescott, Jones, Watson, Murray, Carr.  We need Rodgers to fall back into Category 1.

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See, the issue with this graph is that it shows a lot of elite to good offenses and compares the defenses. This is because the only teams that have a chance are the ones with good offenses. This graph fails to show that a lot of the teams that won it all with top defenses also had top offenses, but then suggests the defense won it for them. The only possible exceptions are the 2013 Seahawks with Legion of Boom (but despite one of the best defenses ever they only won once) and the 2015 Broncos with the husk of Peyton Manning. Both teams had good offenses anyways.

I guess the best way to look at it is with the 2006 Colts. Their 30th ranked defense won it all. A 30th ranked offense will almost never make it past wildcard. 

Generally teams that make it to the Super Bowl have good defenses but are carried by their offenses. This is because they are well built teams all around. 

Defense adds room for error, but offense wins championships.

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