EXCELLENT TJB Article On ProFootballFocus-Analyzing Jets Players

[SoFlaJets]

Interview

[SoFlaJets]

Interview

[T0mShane]

The bottom line, then, is this: it's a couple of dudes who never coached or played at a high level of competitive football sitting in a room guessing what each player's responsibilities were, making subjective assessments as to how that player performed on a given play. Basically, like sitting in a food court at the mall grading a chick's hotness on a scale of one to ten and pretending you've invented a science.

I give respect to these dudes for their effort and their passion, but give me a break. I'll become a believer in **** like this when Bill Polian says "You know, we were going to sign [Player X] to a deal, but his ProFootballFocus numbers were no good." Until then, it's little more than esoterica.

[T0mShane]

The bottom line, then, is this: it's a couple of dudes who never coached or played at a high level of competitive football sitting in a room guessing what each player's responsibilities were, making subjective assessments as to how that player performed on a given play. Basically, like sitting in a food court at the mall grading a chick's hotness on a scale of one to ten and pretending you've invented a science.

I give respect to these dudes for their effort and their passion, but give me a break. I'll become a believer in **** like this when Bill Polian says "You know, we were going to sign [Player X] to a deal, but his ProFootballFocus numbers were no good." Until then, it's little more than esoterica.

[neckdemon]

yeah all this profootballfocus/football outsiders sh*t shodul be taken with a huge grain of salt imo. alot of gusy like to quote thes enumbers in their posts when they are talking about a certain players' effectiveness.......and when i see that i basically just ignore the whole post in general. football just doesn't lend itself well to these type of sabermetrics like baseball does.

[neckdemon]

yeah all this profootballfocus/football outsiders sh*t shodul be taken with a huge grain of salt imo. alot of gusy like to quote thes enumbers in their posts when they are talking about a certain players' effectiveness.......and when i see that i basically just ignore the whole post in general. football just doesn't lend itself well to these type of sabermetrics like baseball does.

[Matt39]

How many protractors were used for this study?

[Matt39]

How many protractors were used for this study?

[SoFlaJets]

The bottom line, then, is this: it's a couple of dudes who never coached or played at a high level of competitive football sitting in a room guessing what each player's responsibilities were, making subjective assessments as to how that player performed on a given play. Basically, like sitting in a food court at the mall grading a chick's hotness on a scale of one to ten and pretending you've invented a science.

I give respect to these dudes for their effort and their passion, but give me a break. I'll become a believer in **** like this when Bill Polian says "You know, we were going to sign [Player X] to a deal, but his ProFootballFocus numbers were no good." Until then, it's little more than esoterica.

these guys are damn good at what they do TS-they spend 15 hours per game on breaking down every play-here, check out part 1-where they answer the question you posed...

Interview: ProFootballFocus (Part One)

Posted on March 23rd, 2010 by Bent

ProFootballFocus.com is a fast-growing new statistical analysis website, which aims to analyze the performance of every single player on every single play. I spoke to Neil from the site, about how it works and what their analysis can tell us about the Jets team from last season and going forwards.

In part one, we discuss how the site operates and what they are aiming to achieve. I was also able to meet with a few of the guys who work for the site and get an insight into the data collection process and the huge amount of work involved. Parts two and three will discuss specific issues relating to the Jets team.

Q. Perhaps you could start by introducing our readers to your site and explaining what you are aiming to achieve and how. What kind of background do the guys who chart the games have?

A. ProFootballFocus.com is an asset of PFF Analysis (our parent Company) of which nearly every current contributor is a shareholder. None of us are, have been or will ever pretend to be, scouts; we are simply dedicated fans with a deep passion for football who utilize the skills and disciplines we learnt and use in our

[SoFlaJets]

The bottom line, then, is this: it's a couple of dudes who never coached or played at a high level of competitive football sitting in a room guessing what each player's responsibilities were, making subjective assessments as to how that player performed on a given play. Basically, like sitting in a food court at the mall grading a chick's hotness on a scale of one to ten and pretending you've invented a science.

I give respect to these dudes for their effort and their passion, but give me a break. I'll become a believer in **** like this when Bill Polian says "You know, we were going to sign [Player X] to a deal, but his ProFootballFocus numbers were no good." Until then, it's little more than esoterica.

these guys are damn good at what they do TS-they spend 15 hours per game on breaking down every play-here, check out part 1-where they answer the question you posed...

Interview: ProFootballFocus (Part One)

Posted on March 23rd, 2010 by Bent

ProFootballFocus.com is a fast-growing new statistical analysis website, which aims to analyze the performance of every single player on every single play. I spoke to Neil from the site, about how it works and what their analysis can tell us about the Jets team from last season and going forwards.

In part one, we discuss how the site operates and what they are aiming to achieve. I was also able to meet with a few of the guys who work for the site and get an insight into the data collection process and the huge amount of work involved. Parts two and three will discuss specific issues relating to the Jets team.

Q. Perhaps you could start by introducing our readers to your site and explaining what you are aiming to achieve and how. What kind of background do the guys who chart the games have?

A. ProFootballFocus.com is an asset of PFF Analysis (our parent Company) of which nearly every current contributor is a shareholder. None of us are, have been or will ever pretend to be, scouts; we are simply dedicated fans with a deep passion for football who utilize the skills and disciplines we learnt and use in our

[SenorGato]

Great post and thanks.

I’d love to know what criteria people are using to say he was “terrible”.

It's f'ing Jets fans...it's their own criteria...which means it's mostly based off perception and "what they see"...aka "what the papers tell us"...which is pretty BS-y because no one actually pays attention to secondary play. Even Rex admitted Rhodes would probably make more plays in his 2nd year here, but in NY its all about keeping the mob placated until the big moment.

Christ...I can't believe the "they never played or coached (do you even know these guys?) so therefore they don't even know" line...You'd swear football was f'ing rocket science the way some fans treat it. Yes, there's variables...No that doesn't mean there's no significance in any kind of non-bsy numbers analysis...it's alot less full of sh*t then "I see what I see" analysis we often have to hear.

[SenorGato]

Great post and thanks.

I’d love to know what criteria people are using to say he was “terrible”.

It's f'ing Jets fans...it's their own criteria...which means it's mostly based off perception and "what they see"...aka "what the papers tell us"...which is pretty BS-y because no one actually pays attention to secondary play. Even Rex admitted Rhodes would probably make more plays in his 2nd year here, but in NY its all about keeping the mob placated until the big moment.

Christ...I can't believe the "they never played or coached (do you even know these guys?) so therefore they don't even know" line...You'd swear football was f'ing rocket science the way some fans treat it. Yes, there's variables...No that doesn't mean there's no significance in any kind of non-bsy numbers analysis...it's alot less full of sh*t then "I see what I see" analysis we often have to hear.

[SoFlaJets]

yeah all this profootballfocus/football outsiders sh*t shodul be taken with a huge grain of salt imo. alot of gusy like to quote thes enumbers in their posts when they are talking about a certain players' effectiveness.......and when i see that i basically just ignore the whole post in general. football just doesn't lend itself well to these type of sabermetrics like baseball does.

This..."A couple of NFL teams took the data for their games last year and over the season told us we were 99% accurate. They also let us know some of our errors which enabled us to understand nearly all of that 1% was rectifiable and this year we expect to be up around 99.5-100% accurate."

I think it's cool site I only wish I was able to understand all the numbers and abbreviations-I'm just not that smart

[SoFlaJets]

yeah all this profootballfocus/football outsiders sh*t shodul be taken with a huge grain of salt imo. alot of gusy like to quote thes enumbers in their posts when they are talking about a certain players' effectiveness.......and when i see that i basically just ignore the whole post in general. football just doesn't lend itself well to these type of sabermetrics like baseball does.

This..."A couple of NFL teams took the data for their games last year and over the season told us we were 99% accurate. They also let us know some of our errors which enabled us to understand nearly all of that 1% was rectifiable and this year we expect to be up around 99.5-100% accurate."

I think it's cool site I only wish I was able to understand all the numbers and abbreviations-I'm just not that smart

[SoFlaJets]

You guys will never guess who the best safety was last season-and by a wide margin....hint he played in the division...not a Patriot, not a Bill, and not a Jet....

Yeremiah Bell

[SoFlaJets]

You guys will never guess who the best safety was last season-and by a wide margin....hint he played in the division...not a Patriot, not a Bill, and not a Jet....

Yeremiah Bell

[stoicsentry]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

[stoicsentry]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

[SenorGato]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

Because Rhodes was being an immature little dick about not being hailed as he thought he should have been hailed by the new coaching staff.

It happens in pro sports all the time...That guy is usually villianized...much like Rhodes was...there's two options...keep him or don't...we didn't.

And obviously sitting him didn't hurt us THAT badly...no one ever said that. There was obviously reason to sit him. All they're saying at PFF is that Rhodes wasn't as bad as Jets fans like to convince themselves he is. No Jets fan talks about his 2nd and goal stop against Miami in the MNF loss because on the very next play Williams scored. That was a huge stop that gave us some momentum...until the next play when we lost and therefore that play got erased from anyone's mind (if you even paid attention to it in the first place). It's little things...biases...things we forget...things we choose to remember that play into fan analysis...while this is "just numbers"...numbers pumped out by "people who never played the game, man."

[SenorGato]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

Because Rhodes was being an immature little dick about not being hailed as he thought he should have been hailed by the new coaching staff.

It happens in pro sports all the time...That guy is usually villianized...much like Rhodes was...there's two options...keep him or don't...we didn't.

And obviously sitting him didn't hurt us THAT badly...no one ever said that. There was obviously reason to sit him. All they're saying at PFF is that Rhodes wasn't as bad as Jets fans like to convince themselves he is. No Jets fan talks about his 2nd and goal stop against Miami in the MNF loss because on the very next play Williams scored. That was a huge stop that gave us some momentum...until the next play when we lost and therefore that play got erased from anyone's mind (if you even paid attention to it in the first place). It's little things...biases...things we forget...things we choose to remember that play into fan analysis...while this is "just numbers"...numbers pumped out by "people who never played the game, man."

[SoFlaJets]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

he was benched for a few different reasons Stoic, first and foremost was his refusal to learn the playbook, second his all-around crappy attitude with his position coaches-you can't have that crap and third he clearly had slowed down and his hitting (or lack there of) was also suspect.

These guys just go by what's on the screen, they have no prejudice or agenda-it's a cool site...here's a link

http://profootballfocus.com/home.php?tab=home

[SoFlaJets]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

he was benched for a few different reasons Stoic, first and foremost was his refusal to learn the playbook, second his all-around crappy attitude with his position coaches-you can't have that crap and third he clearly had slowed down and his hitting (or lack there of) was also suspect.

These guys just go by what's on the screen, they have no prejudice or agenda-it's a cool site...here's a link

http://profootballfocus.com/home.php?tab=home

[Joey Jet]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

Just look at the big TD's given up in the playoffs. Who was the culprit?

[Joey Jet]

If Carrie Rhodes was playing so well, then how come Rex benched him?

You think Rex would honestly hurt our chances at winning THAT BADLY just to make a point?

Or would these people have us believe that they know Carrie as a player better than Rex did?

Just look at the big TD's given up in the playoffs. Who was the culprit?

[abyzmul]

yeah all this profootballfocus/football outsiders sh*t shodul be taken with a huge grain of salt imo. alot of gusy like to quote thes enumbers in their posts when they are talking about a certain players' effectiveness.......and when i see that i basically just ignore the whole post in general. football just doesn't lend itself well to these type of sabermetrics like baseball does.

I emailed that PFF site concerning the inaccuracy of the stats on their cornerbacks page. Here's the response I got for that part:

Regarding the Pass Defensed and Interception numbers, the key reason for discrepancy here is the fact that we (like a couple of other sites) don’t double count an interception as a pass defensed. For example, the NFL also have a policy of counting a sack as a tackle and as a hit and a tackle for loss; it makes the numbers sound better. We have everything logged individually so if you see a number for PDs on our site this is exclusive of interceptions.

If there’s still a difference this will be down to us retrospectively applying a consistent approach to the way the NFL scorers log PDs. Unfortunately each NFL scorer has his/her own way of judging whether to award a PD (or a tackle) and to be fair to them they also have to do the thing there and then whilst we have as long as we want to re-run a play and get it right. I have seen guys credited with a pass defensed when the WR simply dropped the ball with him in the area. The definition may not be open to interpretation but it certainly is looked on differently by different crews. Some enforce an absolute “the defender must touch the ball policy” and will not give a PD even if the defender hits the arm of the WR to stop a completion. Others take this to extremes in the opposite direction with a wildly overthrown pass hitting a FS in the hands, being dropped and going down as a PD.

Our definition is simple and rigorously enforced: “ If a defender, by his actions forces a ball which would otherwise most likely have been caught by a receiver, to be incomplete then this is a pass defensed.”

Apparently they are making their own interpretation of what a PD is, and ignoring the league's.

[abyzmul]

yeah all this profootballfocus/football outsiders sh*t shodul be taken with a huge grain of salt imo. alot of gusy like to quote thes enumbers in their posts when they are talking about a certain players' effectiveness.......and when i see that i basically just ignore the whole post in general. football just doesn't lend itself well to these type of sabermetrics like baseball does.

I emailed that PFF site concerning the inaccuracy of the stats on their cornerbacks page. Here's the response I got for that part:

Regarding the Pass Defensed and Interception numbers, the key reason for discrepancy here is the fact that we (like a couple of other sites) don’t double count an interception as a pass defensed. For example, the NFL also have a policy of counting a sack as a tackle and as a hit and a tackle for loss; it makes the numbers sound better. We have everything logged individually so if you see a number for PDs on our site this is exclusive of interceptions.

If there’s still a difference this will be down to us retrospectively applying a consistent approach to the way the NFL scorers log PDs. Unfortunately each NFL scorer has his/her own way of judging whether to award a PD (or a tackle) and to be fair to them they also have to do the thing there and then whilst we have as long as we want to re-run a play and get it right. I have seen guys credited with a pass defensed when the WR simply dropped the ball with him in the area. The definition may not be open to interpretation but it certainly is looked on differently by different crews. Some enforce an absolute “the defender must touch the ball policy” and will not give a PD even if the defender hits the arm of the WR to stop a completion. Others take this to extremes in the opposite direction with a wildly overthrown pass hitting a FS in the hands, being dropped and going down as a PD.

Our definition is simple and rigorously enforced: “ If a defender, by his actions forces a ball which would otherwise most likely have been caught by a receiver, to be incomplete then this is a pass defensed.”

Apparently they are making their own interpretation of what a PD is, and ignoring the league's.

[Aten]

I'll become a believer in **** like this when Bill Polian says "You know, we were going to sign [Player X] to a deal, but his ProFootballFocus numbers were no good." Until then, it's little more than esoterica.

This is moronic. They're not really scouts, and it's not really quantitative, but it's information nonetheless, and more is always better, especially when there exists no data that meets your absurd standard of being so exacting that teams can make personnel decisions based upon it and nothing else.

[Aten]

I'll become a believer in **** like this when Bill Polian says "You know, we were going to sign [Player X] to a deal, but his ProFootballFocus numbers were no good." Until then, it's little more than esoterica.

This is moronic. They're not really scouts, and it's not really quantitative, but it's information nonetheless, and more is always better, especially when there exists no data that meets your absurd standard of being so exacting that teams can make personnel decisions based upon it and nothing else.

[T0mShane]

This is moronic. They're not really scouts, and it's not really quantitative, but it's information nonetheless, and more is always better, especially when there exists no data that meets your absurd standard of being so exacting that teams can make personnel decisions based upon it and nothing else.

Don't get me wrong, A. I appreciate the hard work these guys put in and I definitely welcome any new analysis that will eventually help teams evaluate and draft players with more success. My beef is totally not with their mission or even their work, per se. My issue is in how these findings in any way relate to any practical application. You made a great point in one of the draft threads about efficiency stats and how they can be used to accurately evaluate wide receivers in the draft, but these PFF numbers don't seem to necessarily translate with that same kind of reliability.

But, as the guy admits, his system has to work through some bugs and fixes. I look forward to seeing it eventually work out for him. I agree, more info is always good. Cheers.

[dbatesman]

Don't get me wrong, A. I appreciate the hard work these guys put in and I definitely welcome any new analysis that will eventually help teams evaluate and draft players with more success. My beef is totally not with their mission or even their work, per se. My issue is in how these findings in any way relate to any practical application. You made a great point in one of the draft threads about efficiency stats and how they can be used to accurately evaluate wide receivers in the draft, but these PFF numbers don't seem to necessarily translate with that same kind of reliability.

But, as the guy admits, his system has to work through some bugs and fixes. I look forward to seeing it eventually work out for him. I agree, more info is always good. Cheers.

The essence of statistics is reflective, not predictive. Baseball is essentially a numbers game, and even the PECOTA guys are off by an average of four and a half wins per team per season.

[neckdemon]

I emailed that PFF site concerning the inaccuracy of the stats on their cornerbacks page. Here's the response I got for that part:

Apparently they are making their own interpretation of what a PD is, and ignoring the league's.

yeah....that would be like an independentsite going through every baseball game and changing the official scorer's interpretation of errors, hits..maybe even changing an umpires balls and strikes calls. it's stupid imo. the official stats are what they are. theese guys wanna change it...so be it. but i won't be looking at any of their rankings as proof of anything.

[SenorGato]

Just look at the big TD's given up in the playoffs. Who was the culprit?

Dwight Lowery, but we can go ahead and blame it on Rhodes. It's not like he's here anymore.

[Aten]

Dwight Lowery, but we can go ahead and blame it on Rhodes. It's not like he's here anymore.

The whole secondary excepting Revis played like complete crap. Leonhard was much better during the regular season, of course, but the pass rush carried the backfield all year and got nothing but grief, which is funny because the stone-throwers don't seem to have any problem whatsoever with using sack numbers as the end-all in that department.

[sirlancemehlot]

hmmmm so Bart scott was awesome. Funny I didn't see that.

David Harris was mediocre at best? Odd, he looked pretty good to me.

Sione Pouha was the best DT in the league? Wow. didn't know that.

Kerry Rhodes was great and Smith wasn't? Wierd. I didn't see the slightest dropoff when Kerry sat. maybe...just maybe....this is all complete and utter bull$hit. just maybe.

[Aten]

hmmmm so Bart scott was awesome. Funny I didn't see that.

David Harris was mediocre at best? Odd, he looked pretty good to me.

Sione Pouha was the best DT in the league? Wow. didn't know that.

Kerry Rhodes was great and Smith wasn't? Wierd. I didn't see the slightest dropoff when Kerry sat. maybe...just maybe....this is all complete and utter bull$hit. just maybe.

Or maybe it doesn't purport to say a single one of those things and you're just stupid.