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Hate to spell it out but if SMC isn't dead with a vig shot to the head tomorrow CTM is scum. I just don't see them on the same side here. Do you?

No.

Unless the 2 of them are using teh Doggin and DPR calamity as the impetus of their own gambit...

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I don't think you should be certain of anything.. fwiw

Oy vey. You know you're probably right. The waters are getting murky again as I think through possibilites in my head. I still think whoever we lynch next is somewhat luck and guess of scum. I do think the answers will there when whoever we lynch flips whatever...but the problem is it would have to be you or SMC...and I really don't want to lynch either of you today...too many possibilites which is why I kinda want to move on to someone else for now.

Ok with that said I have to ride into the city for a 3:30 meeting. ****ing bitch tells 3:30 on a Friday. Sales sucks sometimes.

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Just wondering--why?

What makes you certain?

Because honestly I trust CTM more right now. This smells too much like a set-up to me and you coming out of the gate swinging right away makes it look worse. I'm choosing the one who smells most to me and that's you right now. If the rest of the town wants to see you both live I'm ok with that, it's my personal preference to settle things right away because having open issues leave it open to mafia to set things up even better for themselves.

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It is shaping up as a scenario in which we lynch CTM or SMC.

Since CTM has acknowledged that he has a town power role, and SMC has not.

I say we lynch SMC. If he flips town, and CTM survives night phase... then we lynch CTM next. If SMC flips scum, well then... wasn't this a big waste of time.

Same premise we applied in solving the Doggin or DPR issue.

I am not inclined to lynch a power role, on the accusations of a gambit... finding out SMC's affiliation is a much more valuable barometer than buying into this loose gambit case.

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Hate to spell it out but if SMC isn't dead with a vig shot to the head tomorrow CTM is scum. I just don't see them on the same side here. Do you?

That's assuming we have a vig my friend. The night phase to me is where the scum can do their damage by lynching certain people, or letting others live. The only time we truly have control is during the day. Which is why I'm always pushing to do one or the other. I was that way with doggin vs DPR as well.

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So you think it's coincidental in the sense that SMC isn't scum? I do believe you're innocent for what it's worth.

Ah, crap.

I'm seriously insanely confused. I perhaps am trying too hard to step into scum shoes and try to understand their reasoning. I felt thinking like that led me to to my correct reasoning of doggin, but now I think I may be off.

Unvote: CTM

No time to do much more. I have read up to here and not even close to voting for anyone yet. Gone for a couple hours and will return.

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It is shaping up as a scenario in which we lynch CTM or SMC.

Since CTM has acknowledged that he has a town power role, and SMC has not.

I say we lynch SMC. If he flips town, and CTM survives night phase... then we lynch CTM next. If SMC flips scum, well then... wasn't this a big waste of time.

Same premise we applied in solving the Doggin or DPR issue.

I am not inclined to lynch a power role, on the accusations of a gambit... finding out SMC's affiliation is a much more valuable barometer than buying into this loose gambit case.

This is what I'm thinking. I think it'll help us in the long run because if CTM's ability is helpful to this town and SMC comes back scum, we know we can really buy into CTM. I believe you and I operate similarly I28, which scares because that means I'm just another monkey brain.

Vote: SMC

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That's assuming we have a vig my friend. The night phase to me is where the scum can do their damage by lynching certain people, or letting others live. The only time we truly have control is during the day. Which is why I'm always pushing to do one or the other. I was that way with doggin vs DPR as well.

Than with that said. UNVOTE VOTE: CTM

It answers the most questions to other players pending the flip.

We know he's probably not doc and if cop he's doing a ****ty job.

Also it's my gut feeling. If he's innocent SMC goes down tomorrow or if there is a vig he's dead tonight.

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Because honestly I trust CTM more right now. This smells too much like a set-up to me and you coming out of the gate swinging right away makes it look worse. I'm choosing the one who smells most to me and that's you right now. If the rest of the town wants to see you both live I'm ok with that, it's my personal preference to settle things right away because having open issues leave it open to mafia to set things up even better for themselves.

Understandable.

I'm just shocked CTM is still alive.

In the Fat game he used the "the scum want me alive to the end because I'm a lynch candidate" argument and, guess what? He was scum.

He made it to the end last game as innocent, but that was because of failed conversion attempts.

Also, CTM lied out his ass last game about his town role in the efforts to confuse the scum. But they STILL tried to convert him twice. So they weren't believing him completely.

Are we to assume that the scum left him alive because they think he might be protected?

To me, it's a risk/reward decision.

Let's take CTM's argument that he was kept alive for suspicion sake and JVoR was an easy kill.

JVoR said he had a 1 time investigation power. If he was lying, how would he go about convincing us he had a more than 1 day power?

The scum don't know CTM's role but know that he's roleless. They're going to take the chance that CTM is the cop and might out one of them in favor of off'ing JVoR?

That's why I came out strong. It didn't make sense to me. That's a crazy gamble.

The scum is already down 1 player. They're willing to get a kill on JVoR and risk being outed by CTM the next day?

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It is shaping up as a scenario in which we lynch CTM or SMC.

Since CTM has acknowledged that he has a town power role, and SMC has not.

I say we lynch SMC. If he flips town, and CTM survives night phase... then we lynch CTM next. If SMC flips scum, well then... wasn't this a big waste of time.

Same premise we applied in solving the Doggin or DPR issue.

I am not inclined to lynch a power role, on the accusations of a gambit... finding out SMC's affiliation is a much more valuable barometer than buying into this loose gambit case.

I'm in favor of this.

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Oy vey. You know you're probably right. The waters are getting murky again as I think through possibilites in my head. I still think whoever we lynch next is somewhat luck and guess of scum. I do think the answers will there when whoever we lynch flips whatever...but the problem is it would have to be you or SMC...and I really don't want to lynch either of you today...too many possibilites which is why I kinda want to move on to someone else for now.

Ok with that said I have to ride into the city for a 3:30 meeting. ****ing bitch tells 3:30 on a Friday. Sales sucks sometimes.

Just don't corner yourself in to thinking any one way. That's what DPR was trying to do (and now SMC), even though we know JVOR had a weird role and Slats was something called a martyr (noth new roles to JN)

This isn't an either or scenario nessecarily, but they are drumming up this "he's no the cop, he's not the doc, then he must be scum" nonsense and building a case based on that.

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It is shaping up as a scenario in which we lynch CTM or SMC.

Since CTM has acknowledged that he has a town power role, and SMC has not.

I say we lynch SMC. If he flips town, and CTM survives night phase... then we lynch CTM next. If SMC flips scum, well then... wasn't this a big waste of time.

Same premise we applied in solving the Doggin or DPR issue.

I am not inclined to lynch a power role, on the accusations of a gambit... finding out SMC's affiliation is a much more valuable barometer than buying into this loose gambit case.

Sigh.. it's entirely conceivable that SMC is a confused townie. I'm not in favor of betting my lynch on it..

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Heres my opinion

I think that DPR/scum most likely set up CTM, so they could kill a townie last night + get CTM lynched, then kill another townie. Its a 3 for 1, which is a good deal considering DPR was circling the drain anyways. This leads me to believe that SMC is scum because he is pushing this case so hard.

So, Ill see where this goes, but I am going to

Vote SMC

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Fine, that settles things as I was thinking something but with this quote above:

UNVOTE VOTE: SMC

Now I'm really out of here for real this time.:confused::)

He is 3 away now, right? So another one puts him w/in lynching range for the double vote...

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Understandable.

I'm just shocked CTM is still alive.

In the Fat game he used the "the scum want me alive to the end because I'm a lynch candidate" argument and, guess what? He was scum.

He made it to the end last game as innocent, but that was because of failed conversion attempts.

Also, CTM lied out his ass last game about his town role in the efforts to confuse the scum. But they STILL tried to convert him twice. So they weren't believing him completely.

Are we to assume that the scum left him alive because they think he might be protected?

To me, it's a risk/reward decision.

Let's take CTM's argument that he was kept alive for suspicion sake and JVoR was an easy kill.

JVoR said he had a 1 time investigation power. If he was lying, how would he go about convincing us he had a more than 1 day power?

The scum don't know CTM's role but know that he's roleless. They're going to take the chance that CTM is the cop and might out one of them in favor of off'ing JVoR?

That's why I came out strong. It didn't make sense to me. That's a crazy gamble.

The scum is already down 1 player. They're willing to get a kill on JVoR and risk being outed by CTM the next day?

This is why I suck at this game.

You present a very good argument. All of this makes sense to me. I'm just trying to operate within the circumstances of this game. CTM is outed as a "power role", but the thing is he could just be scum. You on the other hand have been fairly quiet this game and have come out really hard (ROFL) at CTM today. Your reasoning is sound but at the same time it's just so.... set-up ishy.

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If nothing else we should bring SMC to L3 and give him a chance to reveal as well, if he has a reveal.

His suddenly aggressive case vs. CTM is one of 2 things... the result of an investigation, or a set up.

don't forget 3) paranoia 4) stupidity

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This is why I suck at this game.

You present a very good argument. All of this makes sense to me. I'm just trying to operate within the circumstances of this game. CTM is outed as a "power role", but the thing is he could just be scum. You on the other hand have been fairly quiet this game and have come out really hard (ROFL) at CTM today. Your reasoning is sound but at the same time it's just so.... set-up ishy.

yes, the case is so good, except you have to remember the strenght of the case is based on the scum not night killing me, essentially they killed jvor and created a "strong" case on me in 1 move. Farily powerful. (plus D P R stated he was convinced I'm not the cop, if the scum are thinking that way, then why would the risk a blocked NK in order to eliminate me)

SMC's refusal to acknowledge that fact is bizzare..

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I don't really agree that SMC's innocence confirms CTM's guilt, or vice-versa.

I don't think its an absolute thing.

We can lynch CTM and risk lynching a power role or scum.

Or we can lynch SMC and risk lynching an "unclaimed" townie or scum.

There is less risk in going after the townie.

If SMC flips scum, then CTM I think is cleared.

If SMC flips town, then we have to consider going after CTM.

There is no absolute, but its the least risk of the 2.

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I don't really agree that SMC's innocence confirms CTM's guilt, or vice-versa.

I don't either, but I'm willing to take a chance.

I have 5 votes now. In other words, I'm at L-2.

CTM said he would reveal what he is at L-2, and so will I.

I'm an important member of the rebellion who has a specific power. I can double vote at my discretion. It's not automatic.

It was me who double voted DPR. I thought he was scum, and a prick, so I was willing to screw him over.

I saw CTM waffling and I got nervous that DPR wouldn't get lynched. As the day went on I was more convinced DPR was scum so I double voted.

That's why I had the "Yes!!" reaction because it was bullseye. I took a hell of a shot and hit target in using the double vote.

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This is why I suck at this game.

You present a very good argument. All of this makes sense to me. I'm just trying to operate within the circumstances of this game. CTM is outed as a "power role", but the thing is he could just be scum. You on the other hand have been fairly quiet this game and have come out really hard (ROFL) at CTM today. Your reasoning is sound but at the same time it's just so.... set-up ishy.

Half taht post tries to incriminate CTM based upon previous games. Don't let that be lost on you...

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I don't think its an absolute thing.

We can lynch CTM and risk lynching a power role or scum.

Or we can lynch SMC and risk lynching an "unclaimed" townie or scum.

There is less risk in going after the townie.

If SMC flips scum, then CTM I think is cleared.

If SMC flips town, then we have to consider going after CTM.

There is no absolute, but its the least risk of the 2.

Plus I think if SMC dies, CTM lives through the night AGAIN, he has to tell us what he is. If SMC is a townie and he's willing to do this he believes very strongly in his opinion.

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I don't either, but I'm willing to take a chance.

I have 5 votes now. In other words, I'm at L-2.

CTM said he would reveal what he is at L-2, and so will I.

I'm an important member of the rebellion who has a specific power. I can double vote at my discretion. It's not automatic.

It was me who double voted DPR. I thought he was scum, and a prick, so I was willing to screw him over.

I saw CTM waffling and I got nervous that DPR wouldn't get lynched. As the day went on I was more convinced DPR was scum so I double voted.

That's why I had the "Yes!!" reaction because it was bullseye. I took a hell of a shot and hit target in using the double vote.

So you didnt really have to reveal at L-2 since no one was going to double vote you.. but I understand you are pushing it at L-1..

Ill un-vote smc for now.. but I still think we need to be looking in another direction that ctm

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I don't either, but I'm willing to take a chance.

I have 5 votes now. In other words, I'm at L-2.

CTM said he would reveal what he is at L-2, and so will I.

I'm an important member of the rebellion who has a specific power. I can double vote at my discretion. It's not automatic.

It was me who double voted DPR. I thought he was scum, and a prick, so I was willing to screw him over.

I saw CTM waffling and I got nervous that DPR wouldn't get lynched. As the day went on I was more convinced DPR was scum so I double voted.

That's why I had the "Yes!!" reaction because it was bullseye. I took a hell of a shot and hit target in using the double vote.

Did you target him or visit him? :D

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So you didnt really have to reveal at L-2 since no one was going to double vote you.. but I understand you are pushing it at L-1..

Ill un-vote smc for now.. but I still think we need to be looking in another direction that ctm

I did it because CTM said he'd reveal at L-2.

I thought it was only fair I did the same.

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