Inside the Numbers: New York Jets Salary Cap and Player Contract Questions Answered

[JetNation]

Now that the NFL offseason is in full swing it is time to start looking at the potential of having a salary cap, as well as the value of free agent players.  Recently Jason Fitzgerald from NYJETSCAP.com took the time to answer a few questions regarding the contract issues that Gang Green will be facing.  If you are not familiar with NYJETSCAP.com, I truly recommend that you check it out as it is one of the most informative Jets related websites on the internet.

TR: Jason, it appears that the NFL will be going back to the salary cap environment. Where do the Jets stand now in terms of a salary total for the entire team? Any predictions on what you believe the cap number will be for the 2011 season?

JF: Right now the Jets have about $138 million in cap commitments for the 2010 season once all the incentive payments are accrued and the David Harris franchise tag is applied. That is not as bad as it sounds though, as there are a number of players who have large cap hits that have no chance of being on the team at those numbers. The real number is probably around $120 million and will be even less once they renegotiate a few deals.

The real cap limit in 2009 was around $123 million and had been growing between 6 and 7 million a year. If all things remained the same a good guess would be $136 million, but it is doubtful that things will remain the same. The owners want to see a reduction in cap and limit its yearly growth. If the owners get their way the cap will probably revert back to the 2009 limit and see much slower future growth. To be safe I would think teams will be looking at $123 million as the number to be around.

TR: Recently the New York Jets placed the franchise tag on linebacker David Harris. Do you think this was a smart decision by Gang Green, or should the tag have been used on a player like Antonio Cromartie or Braylon Edwards?

JF: The only player on the Jets roster that was somewhat worthy of the franchise tag was WR Santonio Holmes. The other three players are all major stretches to use a franchise tag on. I have to believe that the Jets only put the tag on Harris to retain more or less exclusive negotiating rights with him once the CBA gets sorted out and have no intention of paying him a one year salary of $10 million in 2011.

TR: Jason you always do an excellent job breaking down the value of players.  How would you break down wide receiver Braylon Edwards value?

JF: On the open market I would think his maximum value would be around $7 million per year to a desperate team like the Rams or even the Ravens. That would be in line with what players like Bernard Berrian earned. When you look at production and limited upside Edwards will probably end up making around $6.2 million a year on a 6 year deal with a guarantee around $15 million.

TR: Both Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are slated to become free agents. Do you think it will be possible in a salary cap environment to get both of these guys signed?

JF: I think so, but it may require some creativity. One, and maybe both, would have to defer some money into the future to help with the cap. What works in the Jets favor is that neither should get paid the salary an elite level number 1 gets, and doing deals that pay for a low level 1 and a high level 2 should certainly be within the budget. The one concern the team may have is if they do have to push the money into the future there will not be much of a way for them to escape the deals after two or three years if the players do not work out. It would almost lock the Jets into having the next four or five seasons tied into two players who be in their early 30s at the back end of their deals. That might scare the team off.

TR: Brad Smith is another player that is scheduled to become a free agent. Do you see Brad getting a contract similar to that of Joshua Cribbs?

JF:Very doubtful. Players like Cribbs and Devin Hester never really had much of a chance to do anything but return kicks so teams believed they had upside as a receiver or a runner. Smith has already shown that he can not be a quality receiver in the NFL and his only value beyond special teams would be as an option QB. Considering that teams seem to be phasing out the Wildcat leaves Smith with less reasons to get a big contract.

I do, however, think another team will offer him much more than the Jets will. The Jets put almost no value on kick returners and have let numerous Pro Bowl players leave in the last decade. Plus the Jets do have a mini-fortune invested in Mark Sanchez and at some point it has to be expected that he will be so good that you can no longer justify pulling him to run the option.

TR: Based on his performance in 2010, what type of contract do you see  defensive back Antonio Cromartie getting? Also do you think the Jets will  make a concerted effort to re-sign Cromartie?

JF: This is the exact opposite of the Edwards and Holmes situation. The lack of an elite talent at the receiver position makes it possible to sign both. Here the Jets already have an elite level corner making top of the position money. It is very hard to pay elite money and high level number 2 money at one position. I think that hurts Cromartie more than anything else.

One of the issues I think teams will have in signing Cromartie is his age. While he will only be 27 in April, his game is so based on athleticism and explosiveness that there is going to be a big worry that as his body begins to naturally age he will completely fall off the cliff as far as NFL skills go. A 28 or 29 year old Cromartie may be looked at as no different than a 35 or 36 year old player. I think that makes him very difficult to value. My guess is a 4 year deal somewhere in the mid to upper $20 million range, with a guarantee around $12 million.

TR: There have been some rumblings that the Jets could release Damien Woody. What type of money would that save the Jets?

JF: Releasing Woody will save the Jets about $3.2 million. He is one of those players I was talking about when I said the Jets real cap number is probably around $120 million. Others would be Kris Jenkins ($4.6 million in savings) and Bryan Thomas ($3.7 million in savings). It is highly unlikely they will be on the team at those numbers. Depending on how quick the CBA gets worked out expect the Jets to announce something first with Jenkins. He is due a roster bonus this year and there is no way the Jets will pay that until they are certain he can play, and more importantly still wants to play football.

TR: It looks like the Vernon Gholston experience is over. What type of cap  hit, if any, would there be if the Jets cut ties with Gholston?

JF: The cap hit will be around $5.8 million. He is going to go down as one of the most epic busts in Jets history, which is a big accomplishment when you consider how bad our teams drafting has been in the past. For a top 10 pick to go 3 years without injury and never register a sack defies logic.

Once again thank you Jason for taking the time to answer a few questions.  Please check out NYJETSCAP.com, especially the breakdown on Braylon Edwards free agent value.

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[GreenBeans]

Good read, Tyson (and Jason via the interview). The only question I have is why does everyone contiinue to devalue Braylon Edwards? The man has it all - athleticism, toughness, passion, height, speed, and yes - he can catch the ball. I can't imagine that Sanchez would be happy with Edwards not being a Jet next year.

[visajets]

Great post. Heres the list.

http://nyjetscap.com/freeagents.html

[spjets]

great job....i dont see why we cant sign Edwards,holmes, and Cro....not signing Smith wouldnt kill us ...Using Cro this year saved us there...not that i wouldnt love to see B. Smith back....i think the Jets can keep Woody for way less at his age..same goes for for Jenkins...

[visajets]

great job....i dont see why we cant sign Edwards,holmes, and Cro....not signing Smith wouldnt kill us ...Using Cro this year saved us there...not that i wouldnt love to see B. Smith back....i think the Jets can keep Woody for way less at his age..same goes for for Jenkins...

Agreed up until Woody and Jenkins we need to get younger in those positions. Unless of course these 2 are willing to take alot less money than they are due.

[#27TheDominator]

Good read, Tyson (and Jason via the interview). The only question I have is why does everyone contiinue to devalue Braylon Edwards? The man has it all - athleticism, toughness, passion, height, speed, and yes - he can catch the ball. I can't imagine that Sanchez would be happy with Edwards not being a Jet next year.

Read the article Beans. I don't think Jason undervalues him at all. He has a very well reasoned discussion of what Braylon deserves and it's linked above. Here, I'll do it again:

Jason's Braylon Article

[visajets]

Tanne will sign Harris,Edwards,Holmes and Cromartie along with a few others. Watch and see.

[Maxman]

Excellent read Tyson, really good job.

Jason continues to be to go-to guy for Jets cap info. Amazing but if you have a cap question who are you calling, Jason or a Main Stream Media guy?

[4HCrew]

Excellent read Tyson, really good job.

Jason continues to be to go-to guy for Jets cap info. Amazing but if you have a cap question who are you calling, Jason or a Main Stream Media guy?

+1 Max.... Jason provides some incredible information that you can never find anywhere else

[Bergen Jet]

Good job Tyson... and as usual awesome info from Jason.

I have faith in Tanny and think this offseason will surprise us in some very positive ways.

[Bergen Jet]

Excellent read on Jason's Braylon article as well but I feel that everybody undervalues Braylon. He has incredible size, speed and athleticism. He has good hands (yes I said it) and is a very good blocker. He also loves being here and has the right attitude on the field. I think he is a legit number 1 and I would take him in a second before almost everybody Jason has listed in the article.

[visajets]

Excellent read on Jason's Braylon article as well but I feel that everybody undervalues Braylon. He has incredible size, speed and athleticism. He has good hands (yes I said it) and is a very good blocker. He also loves being here and has the right attitude on the field. I think he is a legit number 1 and I would take him in a second before almost everybody Jason has listed in the article.

I have always been a big BE fan. There are many here who didnt want him and still dont like him. There are many that have jumped on the BE bandwagon. Hes a complete package WR and needs to be signed.

[GreenBeans]

Read the article Beans. I don't think Jason undervalues him at all. He has a very well reasoned discussion of what Braylon deserves and it's linked above. Here, I'll do it again:

Jason's Braylon Article

Thanks for the link - great read. I don't disagree with the contract estimation, I disagree more with the idea that Braylon has "limited upside". The guy has a ton of talent, he just has not shown it in a long while. I'm happy that most people see him as a #2 - that should make it easier to bring him back.

[Larz]

jason, what is the buzz on a rookie wage scale ?

[#27TheDominator]

Excellent read on Jason's Braylon article as well but I feel that everybody undervalues Braylon. He has incredible size, speed and athleticism. He has good hands (yes I said it) and is a very good blocker. He also loves being here and has the right attitude on the field. I think he is a legit number 1 and I would take him in a second before almost everybody Jason has listed in the article.

I like Braylon okay, but I think you overrate him. The problem with Braylon is that he is guy with all the tools that provides good, but not great production. Incredible size, speed and athleticism is not worth as much as incredible production. I think he is all the things you said minus the good hands = I actually, I might give him good, but they are not a +. They are adequate. I think he is a fairly sh*tty route runner.

To be fair the numbers of the guys Jason is comparing him to are from the three years before they signed their deals. The fact that you would take Braylon over them now is kind of the point. Branch looked poised to be excellent. Roy Williams too. They aren't, but people were saying the same thing about Williams they are about Braylon. People thought Justin McCareins was going to break out at one point too.

Thanks for the link - great read. I don't disagree with the contract estimation, I disagree more with the idea that Braylon has "limited upside". The guy has a ton of talent, he just has not shown it in a long while. I'm happy that most people see him as a #2 - that should make it easier to bring him back.

I don't think that Jason is saying Braylon has limited upside. He said Burleson and Walter had limited upside and even mentioned Braylon's potential. The fact is Edwards is what he is. He simply doen't produce at that level. After all those years in the league he has had one great year and a bunch of 50 catch 800-1000 yard seasons. It appears the great year was the aberration, not the average seasons. I like him and want him back, but I'd rather he had less talent and showed it a little more often.

[visajets]

Thanks for the link - great read. I don't disagree with the contract estimation, I disagree more with the idea that Braylon has "limited upside". The guy has a ton of talent, he just has not shown it in a long while. I'm happy that most people see him as a #2 - that should make it easier to bring him back.

Braylon Edwards is a #1 WR.

[4HCrew]

I think Braylon has developed excellent chemistry with Sanchez and has truly bought into the system. The fact he was taking reps with the practice squad to help show different looks says a lot to me. I consider him a #1 receiver, he is just not an elite player like an Andre Johnson..but then again not many are

[#27TheDominator]

Braylon Edwards is a #1 WR.

Not on the Jets he's not. He had less catches and yards per game than Holmes. In 2009 he was behind Cotchery in both categories.

[GreenBeans]

I don't think that Jason is saying Braylon has limited upside. He said Burleson and Walter had limited upside and even mentioned Braylon's potential. The fact is Edwards is what he is. He simply doen't produce at that level. After all those years in the league he has had one great year and a bunch of 50 catch 800-1000 yard seasons. It appears the great year was the aberration, not the average seasons. I like him and want him back, but I'd rather he had less talent and showed it a little more often.

The thing is I actually believe that Edwards is posed to be elite - he seems to finally "get it", so to speak. He's bought into working hard, playing hard-nosed football, and fitting into the team concept. He's got the athletic ability to take over a game if given the chance. Think about the AFC championship game - when the Jets needed to move the chains, they started working the ball to Edwards. When they needed to run, they put Edwards on the right side and he took care of the edge. I honestly think that the team Braylon signs with is going to get a beast of a player - he's finally a pro's pro.

[jason423]

Thanks for some of the compliments guys... Larz-- trust me I am not connected enough (nor will I ever be) to have any real ideas on the CBA. All I know is that some contract info has been harder than usual to come by, which tells me the union has been pushing people to stay quiet to make certain the general public does not get too wrapped up in how much the players make (and in this case the players are probably more in the right than the owners) to not sway opinion against them.

As for Braylon he reminds me alot of Keyshawn. If Braylons catching issues are really a thing of the past he is essentially the same player if given that opportunity. Tough guy. Good blocker. Willing to do whatever it takes to win. But Keyshawn was never a 1, and if you look at him as a pure top flight draft pick he is probably a bust of sorts. Edwards is the same thing. Based on where he was selected he should be Calvin Johnson and he is nowhere near that, even if you take into account the way the Jets often use him as a decoy. I think if every team in the NFL looks at him and his 6 years and says he will never be more than a 900 a year guy he will end up a Jet, but all it takes is one team to think he can get 1200 yards to put him out of the Jets range. I hope it does not happen, but would not be surprised if it does.

[T0mShane]

Awesome stuff as always, Jason. You are an invaluable resource to the Jets community. Terrific work, and thanks so much for your efforts.

[T0mShane]

As for Braylon, it should also be noted that he had shut it down in Cleveland. While Cleveland was a untenable situation, signing a guy like that to a long-term deal is dicey to extremes.

[Sperm Edwards]

As for Braylon, it should also be noted that he had shut it down in Cleveland. While Cleveland was a untenable situation, signing a guy like that to a long-term deal is dicey to extremes.

No more so than Holmes.

[Matt39]

I like Braylon okay, but I think you overrate him. The problem with Braylon is that he is guy with all the tools that provides good, but not great production. Incredible size, speed and athleticism is not worth as much as incredible production. I think he is all the things you said minus the good hands = I actually, I might give him good, but they are not a +. They are adequate. I think he is a fairly sh*tty route runner.

To be fair the numbers of the guys Jason is comparing him to are from the three years before they signed their deals. The fact that you would take Braylon over them now is kind of the point. Branch looked poised to be excellent. Roy Williams too. They aren't, but people were saying the same thing about Williams they are about Braylon. People thought Justin McCareins was going to break out at one point too.

I don't think that Jason is saying Braylon has limited upside. He said Burleson and Walter had limited upside and even mentioned Braylon's potential. The fact is Edwards is what he is. He simply doen't produce at that level. After all those years in the league he has had one great year and a bunch of 50 catch 800-1000 yard seasons. It appears the great year was the aberration, not the average seasons. I like him and want him back, but I'd rather he had less talent and showed it a little more often.

Jerry Rice wasnt going to put up big #'s with the QB's Braylon has had, tbf.

[Sperm Edwards]

I think the market for Edwards, that Jason outlined, is probably close (or as close as anyone could guess in the absence of a CBA). I don't really know what the market for Holmes would be. He's been in the league 5 years, has been in trouble with the league enough that his next offense automatically suspends him for a season (unless that's addressed in a new CBA somehow), and has exactly 1 year of over 1000 yards just like Edwards. Plus he doesn't block for dick and drops easy passes. On the flipside, everyone has seen glimpses - either in a full season in 2009 or in a single game in the SB - what his considerable potential is.

For Edwards, it's also hard to know. He was a #3 overall pick, but that was years ago. He had one monster season (that should have been even greater if not for his 15+ drops or whatever it was). But in 2011 he'll be 4 years removed from that season. He's a far more willing and better blocker than Holmes, even if he does pick up a boneheaded penalty doing so here & there. His next offense, depending on what it is, should "only" be 4 games as opposed to a full season for Holmes so I guess that's worth something in terms of risk.

I don't know. I probably like Edwards better but that's because I can't stand it when guys give up on routes, don't block, drop such a high percentage of passes, and in particular take themselves out of game situations because of frustration over the opponent playing too well. A guy wanting elite type money never does such a thing, particularly one with such off-field baggage. Edwards has size and speed and blocks better and at least on camera just seems to try harder in general. He'll never possess the quickness Holmes possesses that gets him that instant separation we used to love when we had Chrebet here (with the type of straightaway speed Chrebet never had). BE can probably outleap any corner he'll come across, but the couple-inches difference advantage he has there would require a deadly-accurate QB to take advantage of, and so far we don't possess that.

So even though I personally like Edwards better as a stand-alone player, if I had to choose 1 for the Jets, I'd probably reluctantly surmise that a lesser-accurate QB like Sanchez would benefit more from someone who gets better quick separation, particularly on shorter and intermediate routes, and that guy is Holmes. If Keller was a little quicker in & out of his routes, and truly was the quick TE/slotWR hybrid we hoped he would be when drafted, then Edwards would be of greater value.

[#27TheDominator]

Jerry Rice wasnt going to put up big #'s with the QB's Braylon has had, tbf.

Sure, but that's exactly what everybody said about some of those other guys. People certainly thought Branch, Roy Williams and Evans would and used the same excuses. It's a dangerous game expecting production form a guy that hasn't produced. It's not a smart to pay for it.

[Sperm Edwards]

Sure, but that's exactly what everybody said about some of those other guys. People certainly thought Branch, Roy Williams and Evans would and used the same excuses. It's a dangerous game expecting production form a guy that hasn't produced. It's not a smart to pay for it.

It goes both ways. But we've seen on TV plenty of replays of Edwards being plenty open and the ball just not being thrown there (or being thrown badly). Does it happen even more than that (for those of us who don't attend many games)? It stands to reason probably yes, but I really have no idea.

Mark Sanchez

Brady Quinn

Derek Anderson

Ken Dorsey

Charlie Frye

Trent Dilfer

Not exactly the Who's Who? of accurate QB's.

[#27TheDominator]

It goes both ways. But we've seen on TV plenty of replays of Edwards being plenty open and the ball just not being thrown there (or being thrown badly). Does it happen even more than that (for those of us who don't attend many games)? It stands to reason probably yes, but I really have no idea.

Mark Sanchez

Brady Quinn

Derek Anderson

Ken Dorsey

Charlie Frye

Trent Dilfer

Not exactly the Who's Who? of accurate QB's.

Lee Evans: Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm

Roy Williams: Jon Kitna, Joey Harrington, Jeff Garcia,

Davone Bess: Pennington, Henne and Tyler Thigpen

Bernard Berrian: Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Tavaris Jackson, Brett Favre and Joe Webb.

I'm out of breath and afaid to look up Burleson. If these guys played for stable systems with good QBs they probably wouldn't be on the move.

[Scott Dierking]

It will be interesting to see how opening bids will be conducted on Free Agents after the CBA is resolved.

There is such a glut of free agents on the market that the top 10% will probably receive "high offers", but there should be some good deals out there to be had with so much of the league in a state of flux.

I hope that the Jets are not one of the foolish teams that will rush to sign their own FA's, only to sign them at above market prices.

[Sperm Edwards]

Lee Evans: Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm

Roy Williams: Jon Kitna, Joey Harrington, Jeff Garcia,

Davone Bess: Pennington, Henne and Tyler Thigpen

Bernard Berrian: Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Tavaris Jackson, Brett Favre and Joe Webb.

I'm out of breath and afaid to look up Burleson. If these guys played for stable systems with good QBs they probably wouldn't be on the move.

Not sure what this list is supposed to be showing me. That other WRs - some better than Edwards and some not as good - over the years have had both good and bad years with mostly bad QBs? This isn't news.

I would add that Evans is the only one whose body of QB's throwing to him is worse than what Edwards has had.

[4HCrew]

To me I would prefer the combination of Edwards and J-co than Holmes and J-co... Edwards is a huge target that if used correctly could be a tremendous asset to the offense. Even in the AFC Championship game I was begging for Sanchez to lob the ball up to Braylon in the corner of the endzone. At the same Braylon does a nice job of blocking down the field and has bought into the Jets ground and pound philosophy.

Holmes, while at times can make some extraordinaire plays, seems to take plays off and is horrific when it comes to blocking.

[Scott Dierking]

To me I would prefer the combination of Edwards and J-co than Holmes and J-co... Edwards is a huge target that if used correctly could be a tremendous asset to the offense. Even in the AFC Championship game I was begging for Sanchez to lob the ball up to Braylon in the corner of the endzone. At the same Braylon does a nice job of blocking down the field and has bought into the Jets ground and pound philosophy.

Holmes, while at times can make some extraordinaire plays, seems to take plays off and is horrific when it comes to blocking.

At the end of the year, Edwards just seemed to be "willing' plays more than Holmes.

Hard to say this, but Edwards is consistent than Holmes.

Jets definitely don't ned to re-sign both of them, and I believe it would be stupid to do so.

[Sperm Edwards]

To me I would prefer the combination of Edwards and J-co than Holmes and J-co... Edwards is a huge target that if used correctly could be a tremendous asset to the offense. Even in the AFC Championship game I was begging for Sanchez to lob the ball up to Braylon in the corner of the endzone. At the same Braylon does a nice job of blocking down the field and has bought into the Jets ground and pound philosophy.

Holmes, while at times can make some extraordinaire plays, seems to take plays off and is horrific when it comes to blocking.

It's a tough call. Clearly Braylon is a bigger target. Except that he is and he isn't. When equally blanketed by coverage Braylon is a bigger target, but Holmes just seems to get open better and get more separation. In that regard, one could compare Santonio's whole body as a target compared to the size-differential between Edwards and a defender, in which case Holmes - strangely enough - is the bigger target between the two.

I won't complain if we re-sign either one. But in the end it'll probably depend on the dollars. We have too many positions with starters to re-sign or fill vacancies with to go overboard on one over the other. Just as long as we do re-sign one. Could be real trouble if Sanchez loses both in one offseason.

[#27TheDominator]

At the end of the year, Edwards just seemed to be "willing' plays more than Holmes.

Hard to say this, but Edwards is consistent than Holmes.

Jets definitely don't ned to re-sign both of them, and I believe it would be stupid to do so.

Why do you say that? I don't want to break the bank, but the team has exactly one NFL WR on the roster, Cotchery. The only others are Patrick Turner and Logan Payne. They need more WR and I think it will be best for Sanchez to have the continuity. If you are thinking of adding a different top level FA WR, I'd say it's probably a mistake because if you look at numbers of guys switching teams, they don't generally light it right up. If they can't afford them both fine, but if you think they need to upgrade somewhere else more than keeping the WR I say no.

[4HCrew]

It's a tough call. Clearly Braylon is a bigger target. Except that he is and he isn't. When equally blanketed by coverage Braylon is a bigger target, but Holmes just seems to get open better and get more separation. In that regard, one could compare Santonio's whole body as a target compared to the size-differential between Edwards and a defender, in which case Holmes - strangely enough - is the bigger target between the two.

I won't complain if we re-sign either one. But in the end it'll probably depend on the dollars. We have too many positions with starters to re-sign or fill vacancies with to go overboard on one over the other. Just as long as we do re-sign one. Could be real trouble if Sanchez loses both in one offseason.

I see your point SE, then Holmes drops the ball..usually on 3rd down. I agree at least one them has to be re-signed, and think Edwards may be a little easier to get a deal done with. At the same time if the Jets do lose one of them, Keller has to get his game to the next level.