AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not correlate the math from needing two separate 1/3 chances to occur for us to win...see what the greater odds are? Let me know. I don't do math in public. It's not just odds, JC. It's controlled odds. Our situation is sort of like a game of poker. In it's purist poker is nothing more than a game of odds and stats. However, people deal with those odds just as you and I do with these. Random.org is 100% random. A statistical chance of each individual being hit individually. I don't want to do that because I trust us more. You're also overlooking the fact that Smash can team with scum and slats' stolen vote and lynch a townie. They can offer him the same deal they've offered me. We aren't getting a random lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I want to shoot you dead. Vote for Smash, love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UNOfficial Vote Count: Wbat (4): Smash, AVM, Hess, JC Smash (2): Wbat, Leelou With 8 players alive, it takes 5 for a hanging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I want to shoot you dead. Vote for Smash, love. Don't. They don't need you. Make them use me and Slats' vote. If you're right and Slats is scum it would reveal that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I still feel like this is nothing more than a victory lap. If it is, well all right, I won't hate...as much as I want to. Anyway. I'm not voting Smash. EVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You have to unvote, AVM, if you want to switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You have to unvote, AVM, if you want to switch. Ah...you noticed. And you even posted the VC and informed me. How scummy nice of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ah...you noticed. And you even posted the VC and informed me. How scummy nice of you Just helping out the JiFMod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ah...you noticed. And you even posted the VC and informed me. How scummy nice of you It's at least obvious who the final scum are. Just not sure how were suppose to win. There's only 3 of them and this power. There's what 4 of us and Smash but they have the vote stealer thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't. They don't need you. Make them use me and Slats' vote. If you're right and Slats is scum it would reveal that. Oh, but I do need him to check the QT and vote for Smash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just helping out the JiFMod. You are easily my favorite this game. Easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oh, but I do need him to check the QT and vote for Smash. Ok just kidding. You're my favorite. SMC is 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ok just kidding. You're my favorite. SMC is 2nd. *blows you a kiss* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is like the never ending sack dance. If it's a stale mate just give the win to scum. Town was out played/matched this game. ...but I'm not voting Smash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetscode1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LOL, the day just started. That's a long way to wait. Hess gets bored and might just vote whom the scum want for lulz and town loses because AVM isnt on the train. Either way...nothing happens without my night action...so he waits till tomorrow to see the QTs...the only one we need to consider voting is Wombat...he's guaranteed...Leelou + scum...then arguments for SMC, Slats, AVM, and Hess. SMC = Most likely scum because he won't vote Wombat and let us get to night. Slats = Most likely town because he has voted on thread and yet his vote does not count on the VC. AVM = Most likely town, voted known scum in Wombat...did claim to shoot Smash on N1 without a death...voted me afterward...which is why I could never clear him because I knew he did not shoot me. At least a town aligned who shoots and does not kills has to assume he hit the Doc...anyway want to look back and see whether AVM ever voted Smash prior to today? Hess = Most likely town cause he voted the known scum Wombat...have seen nothing to suggest scum... Bottom line...we need to wait...let deadline pass...see if we get lucky with random...of course if you think that's the pussy play...who doesn't like to play with pussy...then vote Smash...still think the odds are not as good as random but if someone want to crunch the numbers...go for it...either way...rash is not the right move. Slow down you get there faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's at least obvious who the final scum are. Just not sure how were suppose to win. There's only 3 of them and this power. There's what 4 of us and Smash but they have the vote stealer thing.... Like I said...get lucky. If JC and I hit perfectly tonight we win. Obviously if scum offers the same to Smash he's going to take it as long as it's not me. He needs my shot as well. Going to a random lynch isn't the answer. We have to hit 3 out of 8. 5 out of 8 times we lose the game (can't hit Smash either). In fact, let's pretend we hit scum. We have 8. Scum loses one it's 7. 5 town, 2 scum, 1 SK. Scum hits town. 4 town. SK now has to target town. 3 town. So 3 town, 2 scum 1 SK. Scum steals a vote from town (assuming we don't hit the 1/8). We're back at square one. It is NOT statistically favorable to take that route. It just isn't. Good scenario and we end up in the same place tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Either way...nothing happens without my night action...so he waits till tomorrow to see the QTs...the only one we need to consider voting is Wombat...he's guaranteed...Leelou + scum...then arguments for SMC, Slats, AVM, and Hess. SMC = Most likely scum because he won't vote Wombat and let us get to night. Slats = Most likely town because he has voted on thread and yet his vote does not count on the VC. AVM = Most likely town, voted known scum in Wombat...did claim to shoot Smash on N1 without a death...voted me afterward...which is why I could never clear him because I knew he did not shoot me. At least a town aligned who shoots and does not kills has to assume he hit the Doc...anyway want to look back and see whether AVM ever voted Smash prior to today? Hess = Most likely town cause he voted the known scum Wombat...have seen nothing to suggest scum... Bottom line...we need to wait...let deadline pass...see if we get lucky with random...of course if you think that's the pussy play...who doesn't like to play with pussy...then vote Smash...still think the odds are not as good as random but if someone want to crunch the numbers...go for it...either way...rash is not the right move. Slow down you get there faster. Read my last post before this one. Random does NOT help us. We have to get 1/8 lucky not 3/8 lucky. It's better if we go with you and me taking our shots (or in your case, protection) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is like the never ending sack dance. If it's a stale mate just give the win to scum. Town was out played/matched this game. ...but I'm not voting Smash. It's not a stalemate because it's not town v scum. It's town v scum v third party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is like the never ending sack dance. If it's a stale mate just give the win to scum. Town was out played/matched this game. ...but I'm not voting Smash. We offered for AVM to get on the train that will go through and get a shot at one of us. We can easily offer this to Smash and let him help us take out town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetscode1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Read my last post before this one. Random does NOT help us. We have to get 1/8 lucky not 3/8 lucky. It's better if we go with you and me taking our shots (or in your case, protection) Good luck...I may get back early tomorrow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Smash has played a great game, Hess. I began earlier to say "If I hadn't taken a shot at him Day 1 he's not in this position" but he would be, still. He's a victim of a poorly played game by town. SK's need town and scum to take each other out balanced...and he didn't get that. Smash can still win, but it's unlikely. If he takes the deal with them they kill one townie, kill one townie tonight while he kills scum. That makes it 2 town, 2 scum, 1 SK. Assume Smash is lucky and gets the vote stealer so they can't win (a 1/3 shot...so possible). Smash then votes with town, killing one scum. 2 town, 1 scum, 1 SK. If I'm alive there are three shots as I'd be on the lynch train. If I'm dead (most likely) there are two. Then it's a giant guessing game. Who does scum target? Who does Smash target? Admittedly it would be an interesting ending. Only scum or smash could win unless they targeted each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetscode1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLddJ1WceHQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We offered for AVM to get on the train that will go through and get a shot at one of us. We can easily offer this to Smash and let him help us take out town. I'm not killing Smash. AVM vote me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Like I said...get lucky. If JC and I hit perfectly tonight we win. Obviously if scum offers the same to Smash he's going to take it as long as it's not me. He needs my shot as well. Going to a random lynch isn't the answer. We have to hit 3 out of 8. 5 out of 8 times we lose the game (can't hit Smash either). In fact, let's pretend we hit scum. We have 8. Scum loses one it's 7. 5 town, 2 scum, 1 SK. Scum hits town. 4 town. SK now has to target town. 3 town. So 3 town, 2 scum 1 SK. Scum steals a vote from town (assuming we don't hit the 1/8). We're back at square one. It is NOT statistically favorable to take that route. It just isn't. Good scenario and we end up in the same place tomorrow yep. I was just thinking somewhere along these lines....Vote me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ok...one last theory then I'll vote. What if we lynch town and I'm on the train? OMG AVM IS TEH SCUM!!1!!one!!!11! Yeah..whatever...just follow me. As mentioned over and over...it's 4-3-1. We lynch town it's 3-3-1. If I get a shot AND smash gets a shot...it would likely be 2-1-1. Though there are a million possibilities. Smash and I could target the same scum. Scum could target Smash (though it would be suicide). If Smash had more than a 1 time BPV (doubtful) that comes into play. I think most of those scenarios end in a draw for town at best (which would mean scum/SK victory). If I'm alive I get a shot, but I get shot. If doc's alive we don't have a shot so it's just SK v town. Damn it I'm more confused again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Seriously nothing more depressing than when you're trying your hardest and no one else gives a damn. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Seriously nothing more depressing than when you're trying your hardest and no one else gives a damn. WTF. I give a damn. Vote for Smash and take a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Seriously nothing more depressing than when you're trying your hardest and no one else gives a damn. WTF. I give a damn...dude. The only way through this is if a Townie is lynched and you and Smash both NK 2 scum tonight with one being the vote stealer...1 scum left.....etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We lynch Hess and I'm on the train...JC has a 1/3 shot of protecting successfully for the win. I didn't consider that part. Might be our best chance. Of course, Smash and I have to hit different scum as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We lynch Hess and I'm on the train...JC has a 1/3 shot of protecting successfully for the win. I didn't consider that part. Might be our best chance. Of course, Smash and I have to hit different scum as well. I'm not lynching Hess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WWWWombat Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wanna deal with Smash. He would be looking ok right now if not for the character claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I give a damn...dude. The only way through this is if a Townie is lynched and you and Smash both NK 2 scum tonight with one being the vote stealer...1 scum left.....etc Yeah I just arrived there too. I thought you were just saying f*** it, vote me not Smash lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We lynch Hess and I'm on the train...JC has a 1/3 shot of protecting successfully for the win. I didn't consider that part. Might be our best chance. Of course, Smash and I have to hit different scum as well. Yes. That's what I'm saying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelou Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I wanna deal with Smash. He would be looking ok right now if not for the character claims. Where is Smash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Unvote Vote Hess. Slats see if you can vote me. Maybe this scum role has restrictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.