Is Idzik kicking himself for not drafting EJ Manuel yet?

[Lizard King]

I don't agree with any of this, right down to the last sentence.

No one was taking Manuel in round 1 and if you read a rumor to the contrary, it was either started by Buffalo to save face or by someone else to get Buffalo to flinch and make a stupid pick instead of the player they really coveted.

Manuel at #16 was the most shocking reach pick of the draft (or at best was tied with the stupidity down in Dallas).

Look at it this way:

A stock can go up or down. But you don't buy a stock at $110 when it's trading for $38.50, rationalize it by saying you think it'll go up to $200 and if it does that will show it was smart, and further rationalize that no one knows for sure today if it's going to go up or down so there is no such thing as a bad value buy anyway.

Geno was the stock trading at $30 but valued at $100. But if he only plays at $50 value then it's still a crap sandwich if you thought you were getting $100.

Manuel was valued much lower but I can't tell you how many times I've seen a good money manager buy up massive blocks of stock over market value just so that they could spare themselves the pain later down the road when the value doubled.

For whatever reason, if they don't think it was a reach I believe they are right in what they did.

The NY Jets pick Ken O'Brien does that sound familiar?! Sure I guess you could say on a head to head basis, O'Brien was the head to head winner over Marino.

[Kleckineau]

I follow the logic on premium positions. That's not what he's saying. He's saying the whole draft is just one big roll of the dice, and all anyone can do is cross their fingers and hope to get lucky. All picks are great, all picks are stupid, Dewayne Robertson is a bowling ball made of butcher knives, oh well nobody could have foreseen Robertson being a bust. Weird how you never hear Steelers fans talking themselves into this kind of logic.

The Steelers class of 2008 called and would like their sh!t reputation back.

[slats]

When it comes to QB's, you have to go with who you believe in.  He's the leader of your team.

 

Geno, Nassib and Manuel were considered the top 3 QB's of a weak class.  Nassib was considered the only one with any shot at all at being selected before Geno.  Most people had Manuel third, with some distance between him and the rest of the field.

 

Manuel going to someone else in the first after the Bills passed was unlikely, but not impossible.  When you've got the QB you want in front of you, you grab him at the earliest opportunity.

 

Other positions, you play the likelihood to be drafted game to get more good players.

Nassib was largely elevated because it was seen as a strong possibility that the Bills new coach would draft his college QB. If the Bills didn't take him at #8, he was unlikely to go before Geno.

I think of the three, Manuel was the hottest prospect. He was originally considered to be a mid-round guy, and his stock was still rising on draft day. I think Buffalo took him too high, but if they had traded to a late first round pick and taken him, I don't think there would've been much criticism.

By taking him early, they increase their risk. If he becomes a star QB, it's a great pick no matter where he was taken. But if he never becomes a decent starter, it's a horrendous pick because the common wisdom is that they reached in the first place. It also puts additional pressure on Manuel as the first QB taken.

[Sperm Edwards]

Care to explain your source? You have absolutely no idea. He didn't dress up in that suit and attend the draft to be drafted on day 3. 

 

Unless you have insider info you'd like to share- you have absolutely zero idea if Manuel would have made it to Buffalo's pick in round two.

 

Ryan Nassib did.

 

It happens every year and it'll happen next year also.

[lamont_jordan_rules]

leading up to the draft i remember liking the way EJ carried himself.  In the whole "leader of men" aspect (not based on performance on the field) of being QB i valued him above Geno.  I didn't want either in round 1 though.  i am happy with the value of the Smith pick in round 2 though & have my fingers crossed he steps up Sat vs the Giants

[Matt39]

Ryan Nassib did.

 

It happens every year and it'll happen next year also.

 

Nassib didnt attend the draft.

 

And every year there's a guy higher on people's boards that the Kipers and Mayocks dont know about. There's no way Manuel goes to Radio City unless he knew he'd be going the first two days.

[Sperm Edwards]

Geno was the stock trading at $30 but valued at $100. But if he only plays at $50 value then it's still a crap sandwich if you thought you were getting $100.

Manuel was valued much lower but I can't tell you how many times I've seen a good money manager buy up massive blocks of stock over market value just so that they could spare themselves the pain later down the road when the value doubled.

For whatever reason, if they don't think it was a reach I believe they are right in what they did.

The NY Jets pick Ken O'Brien does that sound familiar?! Sure I guess you could say on a head to head basis, O'Brien was the head to head winner over Marino.

 

No money manager I know buys a block of anything at twice its selling price.  If it doubles they already paid double.  Maybe they'll overpay a little.  But no one pays $100 for a $40 stock.  

 

The reference to what dollar-value (in this analogy) the player plays at is irrelevant.  I can guarantee you there will be a top 10 pick and probably even a top 5 pick who will have been a lousy pick in hindsight.  I can also guarantee there will be at least one guy towards the bottom of the draft (or who went undrafted) that will outplay many first round picks.  But those are surprises.  You don't buck conventional wisdom and say, "Aw shucks, no one knows anything so I'll just take a 3rd-round prospect in the top half of round 1 just 'cause."  And that's why, no matter what coverage you were watching or listening to, everyone said, "Whoa," before then backing into showing Manuel's obvious upside.

 

It would be one thing if Buffalo had any track record for spotting great QB talent, but that isn't really the case either.  If they drafted Mark Sanchez, that would have been the best QB they drafted since Jim Kelly (who himself went to the USFL right up until the day it folded, specifically to avoid Buffalo). 

[Integrity28]

And everyone kissing Philllys asses for getting Barkley bc it was such a "value pick" is equally stupid IMO. Barkley can't make NFL throws. I wouldn't have picked him period.

Dalton in the second round too. Cincinnati is never winning a title with him at QB.

 

I'd take Dalton in a heartbeat over what we have right now.

 

Predicting Cincy not to win is like predicting the sky to be blue, btw.

[Sperm Edwards]

Nassib didnt attend the draft.

 

And every year there's a guy higher on people's boards that the Kipers and Mayocks dont know about. There's no way Manuel goes to Radio City unless he knew he'd be going the first two days.

 

Fine, then.  Eddie Lacy.  That he was taken at #61 is no appreciable difference to getting taken #63.

[Matt39]

Fine, then.  Eddie Lacy.  That he was taken at #61 is no appreciable difference to getting taken #63.

 

Injury dropped him. Plus he's a back. And he'll still be in the mix for rookie of the year this year too.

[Sperm Edwards]

I hear you. I guess the point I'm trying to make(which you kind of alluded too already w drob) is that there's a good amount of guys who aren't considered reaches that should give you the lolwhut face too on draft day. Gholston was a stiff in college and his first preseason I could tell he was out of the league awful.

 

Except Gholston was expected to go in the first round before the combine that pushed him into the top 10.  

[Sperm Edwards]

Injury dropped him. Plus he's a back. And he'll still be in the mix for rookie of the year this year too.

 

He didn't get injured during the draft.

 

He was invited and didn't get taken essentially until round 3.

 

How he performs because he's going to have Aaron Rodgers keep everyone out of the box is immaterial.  Would you predict he'd be in the mix for rookie of the year if he was taken by Oakland? Not likely.

[Matt39]

He didn't get injured during the draft.

 

He was invited and didn't get taken essentially until round 3.

 

How he performs because he's going to have Aaron Rodgers keep everyone out of the box is immaterial.

 

He went round two. Each day is separated now- he fell, and was still the first or second back to be drafted.

 

And your last sentence really makes me believe you have no idea what the draft is all about or how to look at a prospect. Lacy made people miss in college at the second and third levels- something no QB can help you with.

[Matt39]

Except Gholston was expected to go in the first round before the combine that pushed him into the top 10.  

 

Expected by who though? Kiper? The Jets? 

 

Gholston had megabust written all over him the second you out on any tape of him from OSU.

[Sperm Edwards]

Expected by who though? Kiper? The Jets? 

 

Gholston had megabust written all over him the second you out on any tape of him from OSU.

 

Search for top draft prospects, and isolate the date range between Thanksgiving of 2007 to February 15th of 2008.  You will find no shortage of people who gave Gholston a top 20-25 grade before the combine, and plenty that did prior to the senior bowl.  It's more difficult to find someone (who grades NFL prospects for a living) who did NOT predict or grade Gholston as a round 1 pick.  Even if you can find one (again, pre-combine/pre-senior-bowl) even those people still probably had him as a borderline round 1-2 prospect.

 

I don't want to talk about Gholston anymore.  It's too depressing that we passed up on trading up for Matt Ryan so we could preserve picks for Gholston and (ultimately) Sanchez.

[Matt39]

Search for top draft prospects, and isolate the date range between Thanksgiving of 2007 to February 15th of 2008.  You will find no shortage of people who gave Gholston a top 20-25 grade before the combine, and plenty that did prior to the senior bowl.  It's more difficult to find someone (who grades NFL prospects for a living) who did NOT predict or grade Gholston as a round 1 pick.  Even if you can find one (again, pre-combine/pre-senior-bowl) even those people still probably had him as a borderline round 1-2 prospect.

 

I don't want to talk about Gholston anymore.  It's too depressing that we passed up on trading up for Matt Ryan so we could preserve picks for Gholston and (ultimately) Sanchez.

 

Touche.

 

As far as Lacy goes- Im confused on your opinion. I'd conclude you think GB taking a back that early is stupid, because they have Rodgers- but wouldnt you also consider him a "value" pick because of where they snagged him?

 

This is why I cant go nuts about reaches and value- every team has a different board....every team has different needs and you can only play one QB....which is why taking guys like Clausen and Barkley because of perceived value, irritates me to no end. These guys cant make NFL throws, yet their draft stock gets inflated for reasons probably related to kickbacks,

[Sperm Edwards]

Touche.

 

As far as Lacy goes- Im confused on your opinion. I'd conclude you think GB taking a back that early is stupid, because they have Rodgers- but wouldnt you also consider him a "value" pick because of where they snagged him?

 

This is why I cant go nuts about reaches and value- every team has a different board....every team has different needs and you can only play one QB.

 

My opinion was merely that Lacy is in a better position to win rookie honors with Green Bay than if he got drafted by Oakland.  And I think it was pretty clear before you reworded something I said into something I didn't say or hint at or allude to in any remote way.

 

And I wasn't going "nuts" about it.  I just said he was a reach at #16 overall, particularly in a year when teams were clearly NOT going gaga over every QB prospect just because they play the QB position.  And reaches are bad because you can typically get the same player later on PLUS another player earlier that you wouldn't have been able to get.  For example, if I'm right, they were in a position to have gotten anyone in the draft (other than the 7 guys already taken) AND EJ Manuel.  

[Matt39]

My opinion was merely that Lacy is in a better position to win rookie honors with Green Bay than if he got drafted by Oakland.  And I think it was pretty clear before you reworded something I said into something I didn't say or hint at or allude to in any remote way.

 

And I wasn't going "nuts" about it.  I just said he was a reach at #16 overall, particularly in a year when teams were clearly NOT going gaga over every QB prospect just because they play the QB position.  And reaches are bad because you can typically get the same player later on PLUS another player earlier that you wouldn't have been able to get.  For example, if I'm right, they were in a position to have gotten anyone in the draft (other than the 7 guys already taken) AND EJ Manuel.  

 

You are much smarter than me so I'm just going to positive rep you and cut my losses.

[SweetLee83]

This article pretty much sums it all up for me, and I'm happy with the pick and so are the Bills. Teams can say we reached, but whatever, it won't matter one single ounce if he pans out and we finally get a QB we've so long needed.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1621734-why-ej-manuel-was-the-best-pick-in-the-2013-nfl-draft

[Sperm Edwards]

You are much smarter than me so I'm just going to positive rep you and cut my losses.

 

Smarter than I.

[Matt39]

Smarter than I.

 

douche

[dbatesman]

This article pretty much sums it all up for me, and I'm happy with the pick and so are the Bills. Teams can say we reached, but whatever, it won't matter one single ounce if he pans out and we finally get a QB we've so long needed.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1621734-why-ej-manuel-was-the-best-pick-in-the-2013-nfl-draft

That's convenient, because the fact that that article is from Bleacher Report means it also sums it all up for me!

[Lizard King]

No money manager I know buys a block of anything at twice its selling price. If it doubles they already paid double. Maybe they'll overpay a little. But no one pays $100 for a $40 stock.

The reference to what dollar-value (in this analogy) the player plays at is irrelevant. I can guarantee you there will be a top 10 pick and probably even a top 5 pick who will have been a lousy pick in hindsight. I can also guarantee there will be at least one guy towards the bottom of the draft (or who went undrafted) that will outplay many first round picks. But those are surprises. You don't buck conventional wisdom and say, "Aw shucks, no one knows anything so I'll just take a 3rd-round prospect in the top half of round 1 just 'cause." And that's why, no matter what coverage you were watching or listening to, everyone said, "Whoa," before then backing into showing Manuel's obvious upside.

It would be one thing if Buffalo had any track record for spotting great QB talent, but that isn't really the case either. If they drafted Mark Sanchez, that would have been the best QB they drafted since Jim Kelly (who himself went to the USFL right up until the day it folded, specifically to avoid Buffalo).

Yes I get your argument. You have your projections, draft pick models and are viewing in strictly a point of relativity between his pick and his projection. So I get how you think they overpaid. If he takes them to a superbowl or starts throwing 4,000 yards a year, I guarantee you they paid just the right price for him. Do you have the dish on where he would've gone in a different scenario? I don't understand how you argue a theoretical possibility in a league that values quarterbacks above all else. Maybe he goes late first round, my theory is as good as yours.

And I also implore you to check the last price on Dell Computer. That's a $4.50 stock trading at $13.75 because Michael Dell and Silverlake Partners are willing to pay over 300% to buy the company.

[Matt39]

Yes I get your argument. You have your projections, draft pick models and are viewing in strictly a point of relativity between his pick and his projection. So I get how you think they overpaid. If he takes them to a superbowl or starts throwing 4,000 yards a year, I guarantee you they paid just the right price for him. Do you have the dish on where he would've gone in a different scenario? I don't understand how you argue a theoretical possibility in a league that values quarterbacks above all else. Maybe he goes late first round, my theory is as good as yours.

And I also implore you to check the last price on Dell Computer. That's a $4.50 stock trading at $13.75 because Michael Dell and Silverlake Partners are willing to pay over 300% to buy the company.

 

The rookie wage scale changes everything too.... perceived reaches are nowhere near as risky.

 

Everyone loved Tavon Austin, no one considered him a reach, Rams trade up for him.....but to me, that's a reach. 5'7 slot guy. TY Hilton goes round three the year prior.

[JoeKlecko]

Geno was the stock trading at $30 but valued at $100. But if he only plays at $50 value then it's still a crap sandwich if you thought you were getting $100.

Manuel was valued much lower but I can't tell you how many times I've seen a good money manager buy up massive blocks of stock over market value just so that they could spare themselves the pain later down the road when the value doubled.

For whatever reason, if they don't think it was a reach I believe they are right in what they did.

The NY Jets pick Ken O'Brien does that sound familiar?! Sure I guess you could say on a head to head basis, O'Brien was the head to head winner over Marino.

 

I disagree.  I'd take a 67% return on my investment any day of the week and twice on Sunday.  The Jets will need to have a sound backup QB going forward as well as a starter.  If Geno only turns out to be a $50 return, then that should equivocate to a pretty good backup QB, which isn't a crap sandwich when you look at all the crappy QBs in the NFL.

 

The Jets took O'Brien instead of Marino because of Marino's fondness for Mary Jane.  It was solely a character-related move, not a talent-related decision.

[JoeKlecko]

I'd take Dalton in a heartbeat over what we have right now.

 

Predicting Cincy not to win is like predicting the sky to be blue, btw.

 

I agree.  Dalton, while not a top tier QB talent, is a pretty good QB.  He's head and shoulders above Sanchez, and at this point at least, Geno.

[Matt39]

I'd take Dalton in a heartbeat over what we have right now.

 

Predicting Cincy not to win is like predicting the sky to be blue, btw.

 

Taking Dalton over what we have right now doesn't mean I;d want him starting here either.

 

15 years ago Dalton could be your guy. With parity everything really is being put on the QB...Troy Aikman wouldnt be a HOF player in todays game.

[JoeKlecko]

Yes I get your argument. You have your projections, draft pick models and are viewing in strictly a point of relativity between his pick and his projection. So I get how you think they overpaid. If he takes them to a superbowl or starts throwing 4,000 yards a year, I guarantee you they paid just the right price for him. Do you have the dish on where he would've gone in a different scenario? I don't understand how you argue a theoretical possibility in a league that values quarterbacks above all else. Maybe he goes late first round, my theory is as good as yours.

And I also implore you to check the last price on Dell Computer. That's a $4.50 stock trading at $13.75 because Michael Dell and Silverlake Partners are willing to pay over 300% to buy the company.

 

Ah, but that isn't a money manager.  It's the former owner/creator (or family member) who want to acquire it and take it back private.  That's a very different scenario.  One always has to pay in those situations.

[Sperm Edwards]

I'd take Dalton in a heartbeat over what we have right now.

 

Predicting Cincy not to win is like predicting the sky to be blue, btw.

 

Dalton isn't exactly the most accurate QB either.  AJ Green & co. make a lot of circus catches on bad (or at least "catchable but still not good") throws.  Sanu actually made their best throw of the season.  50 yards in the air and Green didn't break stride even by a tenth of a step.  Dalton probably cost Green 400 yards last year.

 

Like Sanchez missing Gates 3x on one drive, the stats don't tell the story of the good play he didn't make.

[Kleckineau]

Ah, but that isn't a money manager.  It's the former owner/creator (or family member) who want to acquire it and take it back private.  That's a very different scenario.  One always has to pay in those situations.

 

And I also implore you to check the last price on Dell Computer. That's a $4.50 stock trading at $13.75 because Michael Dell and Silverlake Partners are willing to pay over 300% to buy the company.

 

Ah, but that isn't a money manager.  It's the former owner/creator (or family member) who want to acquire it and take it back private.  That's a very different scenario.  One always has to pay in those situations.

............

Without Carl Icahns involvement it wouldnt be near $13.75

[Integrity28]

Taking Dalton over what we have right now doesn't mean I;d want him starting here either.

 

15 years ago Dalton could be your guy. With parity everything really is being put on the QB...Troy Aikman wouldnt be a HOF player in todays game.

 

Irrelevant conjecture, I'd still take Dalton in a heartbeat right now. We have zero starting caliber QBs.

 

Dalton isn't exactly the most accurate QB either.  AJ Green & co. make a lot of circus catches on bad (or at least "catchable but still not good") throws.  Sanu actually made their best throw of the season.  50 yards in the air and Green didn't break stride even by a tenth of a step.  Dalton probably cost Green 400 yards last year.

 

Like Sanchez missing Gates 3x on one drive, the stats don't tell the story of the good play he didn't make.

 

No, he isn't. No, they don't. I'd still take Dalton in a heartbeat right now.

 

I'd take Shaun Hill over what we have right now.

 

I'd take TJ Yates over what we have right now.

 

We have an absolute shell-shocked turnover machine who has no business starting OR a rookie who will probably be ruined if we start him too soon. Not much else.

[Lizard King]

I disagree.  I'd take a 67% return on my investment any day of the week and twice on Sunday.  The Jets will need to have a sound backup QB going forward as well as a starter.  If Geno only turns out to be a $50 return, then that should equivocate to a pretty good backup QB, which isn't a crap sandwich when you look at all the crappy QBs in the NFL.

 

The Jets took O'Brien instead of Marino because of Marino's fondness for Mary Jane.  It was solely a character-related move, not a talent-related decision.

These were arbitrary numbers. Imagine if I said you purchased something that offered you a return of 15% because it was trading a deep discount from net present value. Say you only made 5%. Your cost of capital for arguments sake was equal or greater. Now it's not such a great trade. A backup QB is fine, I don't even know how we got off on this tangent.

 

Marino- We passed on a guy because he smoked pot. That's ridiculous and we should suffer the curse of the Bambino for such stupidity. Our own Joe Willie Namath was probably the lowest character guy in the NFL at the time, Broadway Joe challenging every social norm of the time. How quickly we gained morality. May I add, this presented the ultimate value opportunity.

 

Ah, but that isn't a money manager.  It's the former owner/creator (or family member) who want to acquire it and take it back private.  That's a very different scenario.  One always has to pay in those situations.

Silverlake Capital is in fact, a money manager. A tender offer is a stated bid, at a significant premium to market value. The only reason it's trading in the open market is that the final terms haven't been announced. When enough shares are sold (tendered) to the buyer, it'll go private. 

 

 

 

Ah, but that isn't a money manager.  It's the former owner/creator (or family member) who want to acquire it and take it back private.  That's a very different scenario.  One always has to pay in those situations.

............

Without Carl Icahns involvement it wouldnt be near $13.75

 

The original bid was $13. Icahn got another 75 cents on the deal before Dell told him to go scratch by naming his best and final offer, a specific term in takover situations which removes the ability to further change the terms. There is not a single person in existence that will argue this stock is worth any more than $5 right now without the takeover offer.

[Sperm Edwards]

Irrelevant conjecture, I'd still take Dalton in a heartbeat right now. We have zero starting caliber QBs.

 

 

No, he isn't. No, they don't. I'd still take Dalton in a heartbeat right now.

 

I'd take Shaun Hill over what we have right now.

 

I'd take TJ Yates over what we have right now.

 

We have an absolute shell-shocked turnover machine who has no business starting OR a rookie who will probably be ruined if we start him too soon. Not much else.

 

Shaun Hill looked awesome against us.  I don't mean in a way like we made a scrub look good.  He was sticking guys in the numbers or leading them a foot off their torsos on every throw.  With throws like that he'd have looked just as good against anyone who gave his receivers 6" of space. I was impressed.

[kelticwizard]

..which is why taking guys like Clausen and Barkley because of perceived value, irritates me to no end. These guys cant make NFL throws, yet their draft stock gets inflated for reasons probably related to kickbacks,

 

Kickbacks?  Please explain.

[JoeKlecko]

These were arbitrary numbers. Imagine if I said you purchased something that offered you a return of 15% because it was trading a deep discount from net present value. Say you only made 5%. Your cost of capital for arguments sake was equal or greater. Now it's not such a great trade. A backup QB is fine, I don't even know how we got off on this tangent.

 

Marino- We passed on a guy because he smoked pot. That's ridiculous and we should suffer the curse of the Bambino for such stupidity. Our own Joe Willie Namath was probably the lowest character guy in the NFL at the time, Broadway Joe challenging every social norm of the time. How quickly we gained morality. May I add, this presented the ultimate value opportunity.

 

Silverlake Capital is in fact, a money manager. A tender offer is a stated bid, at a significant premium to market value. The only reason it's trading in the open market is that the final terms haven't been announced. When enough shares are sold (tendered) to the buyer, it'll go private. 

 

The original bid was $13. Icahn got another 75 cents on the deal before Dell told him to go scratch by naming his best and final offer, a specific term in takover situations which removes the ability to further change the terms. There is not a single person in existence that will argue this stock is worth any more than $5 right now without the takeover offer.

 

I'm not saying I agreed with taking O'Brien over Marino or Brady over Sapp.  Different owners/GMs/HCs have different takes on that.  Tranny brought in a lot of low character guys.  Idzik signed Goodson, but it's too early to tell which way he'll go.