Evolution of Our Offense: Pass Catchers

[win4ever]

It's quite remarkable how much our offense will have changed from 2 years ago.  From the days of a hobbled Holmes, Kerley, and the couch crew to one where you can now legitimately start talking about this group as a possible top 3 group in terms of pass catchers.  These are reasons why I think our offense in terms of pass catching will be much better next year than we've been used to, in regards to certain players.  Obviously, part of this depends on the QB, and we know Geno/Fitz aren't great, so I'm just focusing in on the Pass Catchers since, we can't do anything about the QB right now.  Our best option moving forward with the offseason/draft is in house, the other options have dried up.  

 

1.  Spread offense:  

 

The move to a spread offense can only help this team, because part of the issue of being a running team is spacing around the line of scrimmage.  Routinely, we'll see LBs crowded around the line of scrimmage because we have a reputation as a running team.  This hurts our passing game as well, because these LBs are much closer to the QB for a delayed blitz if we aren't running the ball.  Now, we couldn't really do anything about it, because besides Decker, we had no one that actually threatened the defense for a one on one matchup.  Late in the season, Harvin tried to be that guy, but he's actually a pretty bad player on deep passes, and is much better suited as someone who can take screens or short passes and then try to get yards after the catch.  Hence, why the Seahawks and MM last year had him play in the backfield more than people expected, because he's not a good route runner, has trouble tracking the ball without losing speed, and is not going to win many 50/50 balls.  With the move to a spread offense, the defense is much more spread out (obviously) but it also limits their secondary options if the initial play is not what they expected.   This will help both the running game/passing game, since each defense has to play a guessing game when it comes to what plays we're going to run.   The LBs can't quite walk up to the line like before, because the CBs are more spread out, so there is more area outside for RBs to run, thus forcing the LBs to maintain angle.  If they play close to the line and attack on a horizontal line, then they risk a cutback move.  They don't have to worry about this risk in more run predominant set up because the CB is close enough to the formation, that there isn't as much room for a RB to make a cut.  The LB would play the inside, and the CB who is trying to fight off the WR block would play the outside and use the help of the sideline.  Now the "space" we're talking about here may only mean one or two yards, but that's more than enough for a RB to find a hole in and make people miss.  In the spread, the LB has to maintain an angle, because he has to work under the presumption that there is too much space between him and the corner, giving the RB too much leeway to make a move.  This means the LB is deeper, so it takes longer for him to meet the RB (unless ofcourse they guess right on run) and allows us time to atleast gain one or two yards that we may not have gained otherwise.   

 

It also helps the passing game, because teams can't send the corner blitz quite as much (something Geno definitely has trouble with) because the CB is further away than usual (again, maybe a yard or two), and gives the QB the extra time to throw the ball away or find a WR.  Naturally, this would mean if a team is sending a CB blitz, it's from the slot guy, because they'll be closer, but that works to the advantage since slot guys are much better at quick movements and routes, thus function better as a hot read than large guys that are slower in their movements.   And the whole point of spread is to find out where there is a one on one matchup, and exploit it.  It's the reason why spread works so well in the college ranks, because defenders have an extremely tough time trying to stop one on one matchups.  The whole Oregon offense is centered around plays that have 5 or 6 variations within the same play, so at the line of scrimmage, they can see where the defense is shading to, and go completely the opposite direction out of the same look, and even the same play.  But spread gets defeated in college, because certain teams have better defensive lines (ala Stanford vs. Oregon) than the offensive line, so the one on one advantage is taken away mainly due to the adjustments needed in keeping the defensive line away from the QB.  But if faced with equal talent on the line, then the spread offense is set to make defenses scramble, because the offensive guy knows where the ball is going, so it's easier for him to win a one on one matchup.  It also helps to have a defense that's more horizontally spread out, because there is less of a chance that a back defender runs into a passing lane (unless it's zone) because there is greater distance to cover.  One of Geno's main weakness is failing to see the defender on the backside of the play jump the route, something that doesn't happen quite as much in a spread (especially in college) because of how spread out people are.  

 

This ofcourse depends on if you actually have good wide receivers and players that can catch.  We do now.  

 

2.  Decker:  He's an excellent route runner, has good size, and is deceptively fast.  He's a one on one mismatch because of his size/speed combo, which I believe is under-rated.  He would've easily made it over 1000 yards last year if not for the injury, and he was the No. 1, with a bunch of mismatches and losers behind him.  I don't see one reason why teams didn't focus their attention in the passing game trying to defend him, and daring the others to beat their guys one on one.  I believe it was the Steelers who said two years ago, after they beat us, that they really didn't think any of our WRs in the game (at the time, Hill, Kerley, Nelson I believe) could beat them one on one, so they weren't worried at all.  Decker actually did well against Revis last year, got open a few times with some good moves, and I think he had the most yards against Revis last year if I'm not mistaken.  And that was a case, where he was left one on one with Revis.  He fits in extremely well in a spread because of his ability to beat one on one coverage, and because he's a precise route runner.  

 

3.  Marshall:  Whatever I wrote about Decker, just copy and paste to Marshall, but add as a better red zone threat.  Just a physical freak, that can truly dominate a game when he's healthy.  He's impossible to cover one on one (unless it's Revis) because of his size, route running, speed, and catch radius.  Another one that works extremely well in a spread.   

 

4.  Devin Smith:  I know, Kerley is going to be the No. 3 WR to start off, but I think Smith works perfectly into the spread.  As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I don't like Kerley in the slot, because he's a horizontal WR.  He doesn't threaten people with vertical speed enough, so teams can play him horizontally, and that lessens how often he can get open.  If a team has to respect his vertical speed, then whoever he's being covered by has to factor that in, when playing him.  They can't crowd him, which opens up the horizontal lanes for him to run with more separation because as from the LBs before, the angle to tackle allows an extra yard or so of freedom.  To me, Devin Smith is the perfect guy for the job (so would've been Aamari Cooper, or Dorsett, and to an extent Lockett) because his vertical speed, route running, and ball tracking is ridiculous.  And in a spread system where he can try and find the mismatch with a 3rd CB or a safety, he could be lethal from the slot.  Reading up on him, there is this article that needs to be read:  

 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_nfldraft_devinsmith15

 

-One of the best at tracking balls deeps, and excellent at catching the ball at high point.  Was apparently 100% successful on contested passes in the sample size seen, and the guy compares that ability to OBJ.

 

- Ridiculously successful on the go route, almost unheard of success rate on those plays.  

 

- Can run other routes, but OSU used him to open up the field more often than not

 

- Opportunities opened up more when Jones was QB, who was a much better deep passer than freshman Jones.  

 

That's exactly what we need out of the slot, someone that can scare the heck out of defenses over the top, and if they fail to respect it, someone who can actually make them pay.  A ton of guys have straight line speed, but few are actually good at tracking the ball and then catching it, if it's contested.  Smith is one of the best at it (Cooper is better) and that's exactly what we need as the complimentary WR to Decker/Marshall.  Leave Smith one on one with his ridiculous success rate on deep passes or commit a safety over the top, and leave CBs on an island with Decker or Marshall?  Kerley doesn't present this problem, that safety couldn't care less about Kerley, they would have a LB try and defend him.   

 

4.  Kerley can be a fine No. 4, but I would love to see Smith start over him.  I have  a feeling Kerley is going to be given the shot since he's a veteran and all, and since Smith can play special teams, they may not use him as much early in the year.   

 

5.  Amaro -  So you find a way to cover Marshall/Decker/Smith and then you get to deal with Amaro.  He seemed to come on later in the season, and could really blossom this year.  He's also used to playing in a fast paced spread system, although I was honestly surprised by the amount of drops he had last year.   He should find it much easier to get open this year, because the talent around him is so much better, and the focus is so far away from him, that he should improve his stats a good amount (atleast on a per target basis, with so many hands to feed, overall stats may not look like a breakout).   

 

6.  A RB that can catch:  If we had a workhorse RB that could catch (Coleman would've been perfect), it would've taken the offense to another level.  Ivory caught a career high in passes last year, so maybe he can improve a bit, but he's not great at it.  Powell can catch, but I'm not sure how much he plays.  It'll be interesting to see if we add someone today in the draft that can catch out of the backfield.  Ajayi could be a decent option, but the red flag on his injury could be worrisome.  

 

All in all, I think our offense is set up to be so much better than in the past.  It depends on the QB, but I think even a loser QB can be an average one in a spread system that has talent like ours.  I expect Geno to improve if he wins out the competition (and that's the best case scenario for us, since Fitz is just a stop gap) or Fitz to play well since he's familiar with the system and can still make some plays.  

 

 

 

 

[long suffering jets fan]

None of that matters if you can't block worth a lick.

[FidelioJet]

None of that matters if you can't block worth a lick.

That is true - but the Jets have a very solid O-Line. They were good last year and added a solid guard in FA and have a few younger draft picks that might be ready to move into starting roles this year.

They might have concerns in a few years when Mangokd and Brick are gone - but they'll be solid this year

[maury77]

win4ever, great post. 

[Warfish]

WR helps alot, but we still need someone competent who can hit them and not turn it over at a massive clip.

[TuscanyTile2]

Is Brandon Marshall really someone who can still dominate a game? I hope so but how did we get a guy like that for a 5th rounder.

[RoadFan]

Mike Davis is the workhorse RB you seek that can catch.

[C Mart]

WR helps alot, but we still need someone competent who can hit them and not turn it over at a massive clip.

 

 

Gailey’s biggest task with the Jets will be trying to develop Smith, which is the one thing Brandt is comfortable predicting about Gailey.

 

“Chan has great patience and his work ethic is immense, and that’s going to make Geno work harder,” Brandt said. “If Geno lets Chan do what he does best, the Jets’ quarterback is going to be a lot better than he was last year and their offense is, too.”

http://nypost.com/2015/01/14/gaileys-gift-getting-most-out-of-offensive-talent/

[C Mart]

Is Brandon Marshall really someone who can still dominate a game? I hope so but how did we get a guy like that for a 5th rounder.

 

has't it been documented enough...plus new regime in Chicago that wanted to start fresh..If Cutler's cap hit isn't as bad as it is he'd be gone too

[Larz]

None of that matters if you can't block worth a lick.

 

macc already upgraded LG in FA.  the young kids should get better. macc has a reputation for finding o-line talent. 

 

the off season isn't over

[Admin]

Did you write this? Great job.

[win4ever]

None of that matters if you can't block worth a lick.

 

Yeah, but our OL is anywhere from good to average by most accounts, so we shouldn't be horrible by any stretch.  And having weapons lessens the burden on the OL since the other team can't blitz quite as much and still be effective.  

 

win4ever, great post. 

 

Thank you.  

 

WR helps alot, but we still need someone competent who can hit them and not turn it over at a massive clip.

 

Yeah, ideally, we would have a stud QB, but we don't.  However, I think the weapons we have amassed can really help with bringing along a QB that may not be top notch.   

 

Is Brandon Marshall really someone who can still dominate a game? I hope so but how did we get a guy like that for a 5th rounder.

 

He was cheap mainly because of money.  They have to pay Jeffery soon, and I think Forte wants to be paid.  I'm not sure what the deal is with Bennet, but he might also be looking to get paid, and I think their initial hope was to move on from Cutler.  But his contract is just too much, and they need to spend money to improve the defense.  It was a money dump more than a talent dump, because he's still a very good WR when healthy.  I'm pretty sure as a free agent, he would've gotten a deal similar to the one we have him under right now, if not more.  

 

Did you write this? Great job.

 

I did, thanks.