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Fitzpatrick's Familiar Situation Should Have new Feel


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Ryan Fitzpatrick is a ten-year NFL veteran who has experienced a wide range of individual highs and lows over the course of his decade-long career.  From being  a longshot  7th round draft choice with the St. Louis Rams in 2005, to earning a mega-contract as a starter for the Buffalo Bills where he played from 2009-2012.

 

Since his four year stint with the Bills, Fitzpatrick has become the very definition of the word journeyman as the Jets will be his fourth NFL team in as many seasons.  For Fitzpatrick, it’s yet another situation in which the signal caller will be battling for a starting job, this time against incumbent Geno Smith.

 

It should all have a familiar feel for Fitzpatrick but there’s one factor that makes his opportunity with the Jets much different than those that precede it.  Should Fitzpatrick earn the starting nod from day one, he’ll have the opportunity to play on a team whose defense should be able to make it count when Fitzpatrick’s offense puts points on the board, or simply allow him to play with a lead more frequently that he as up to this point in his career.

 

Having never played a full season on a team whose defense ranked any higher then 16th in the NFL in points allowed, Fitzpatrick has had plenty of instances in which his offense played well, but his defense wasn’t able to keep their oppnents out of the end zone.

 

Using 21 points as a barometer as it’s slightly below the median points per game average, but should be enough to make a playoff push if paired with an top-ten defense, we look at how Fitzpatrick has fared when he managed to put three or more touchdowns on the board and where those teams ranked against the rest of the league in points allowed.

 

 

 

Fitzpatrick-Gailey-300x200.jpg

Fitpatrick led some productive offenses in Buffalo under Chan Gailey, but a porous defense was too much to overcome.

 

YEAR   TEAM   21+ points     Record        Def PPG (NFL Rank)

2008     Cin              1                    1-0                       22.8 (19th)

2009     Buf              2                    2-0                       20.4 (16th)

2010     Buf              4                    1-3                       26.6 (28th)

2011     Buf              10                  6-4                       27.1 (30th)

2012     Buf              8                    4-4                       27.2 (26th)

2013     Ten              5                   1-4                        23.8 (16th)

2014     Hou             8                    5-3                       19.2 (7th)

Collectively, Fitzpatrick has seen his teams compile an overall record of just 20-18, a .526 winning percentage, when he has been under center for the majority of his team’s snaps since getting his first legitimate shot as a starter.  The 47 games in which his team has surrendered 21 points or more represents more than half  of those (53%).

 

By comparison, the Jets, in that same time frame (including playoffs), despite some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL  have gone 46-12 when scoring 21 points or more (.793), propelled largely by their 2009 and 2010 campaigns in which they went a combined 20-3.

 

Given GM Mike Maccagnan’s offseason additions of Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, Marcus Gilchrist and Leonard Williams for defensive mastermind Todd Bowles and his coordinator Kacy Rodgers to work with, the Jets have every reason to expect to be closer to the team they were defensively in 2009 and 2010, than the units that regressed between 2011 and 2014.

 

Marcus-Gilchrist-300x169.jpg

Safety Marcus Gilchrist’s presence is vital to Gang Green in 2015.

 

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the poor defenses Fitzpatrick has played with was their tendency to put the quarterback in a big hole early on by allowing multiple quick scores in the early going of so many contests, another issue that shouldn’t be a factor for the Jets in 2015.

 

Fitzpatrick played in a total of 38 games over the course of his career in which he faced a double-digit deficit before his team headed for the tunnel at halftime.  Between 2010-2012 with Buffalo, the Bills found themselves down by ten or more in the first half sixteen different times which left Buffalo’s offense in far too many obvious passing situations.

 

According to pro-footballreference.com, Fitzpatrick has thrown 51 career touchdowns to just 22 interceptions when playing with the lead or in a tie game.  Giving us an idea just how often Fitzpatrick has played from behind, he has had significantly more pass attempts (11,491 to 7,755) while his team is trailing, which has resulted in 72 touchdowns and 78 interceptions.

 

Season number 11 is on the horizon for Fitzpatrick, and one has to wonder if he’s licking his chops at the opportunity to finally get on the field for a team that will give him a chance to compete on most Sundays instead of spending them furiously trying to dig himself and his team out of a hole that was dug before he buckled his chin strap.

 

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What a cool piece. I still have my doubts he will get a fair shot, but I'm willing to bet he starts significant number of games this year. Sure hope we are not sitting here at the end of the season wondering "what if" Fitzpatrick had started from week 1.

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Nice job.  I am always wary of guys that get their stats when their team is down. Teams probably didn't give a sh*t about giving stats during the 38 games he was facing a double digit lead at the half.   He was probably facing a lot of prevent and safe defenses. The 51:22 TD:INT ratio with the lead or tie is much more encouraging.

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What a cool piece. I still have my doubts he will get a fair shot, but I'm willing to bet he starts significant number of games this year. Sure hope we are not sitting here at the end of the season wondering "what if" Fitzpatrick had started from week 1.

Fair Shot lol

Mac traded for him. Just because Geno in June is first on the depth chart doesn't mean there's a bias against Fitz

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Nice job.  I am always wary of guys that get their stats when their team is down. Teams probably didn't give a sh*t about giving stats during the 38 games he was facing a double digit lead at the half.   He was probably facing a lot of prevent and safe defenses. The 51:22 TD:INT ratio with the lead or tie is much more encouraging.

 

Same here, that's why I left out the games in which they trailed by double digits in the second half.  I think those situations are more indicative of a defense laying off a little bit to go prevent.  A double-digit deficit isn't easy to overcome in the fist  half, but defenses aren't exactly going to take their foot off the gas with a 14-3 lead at the half.  They're in control, but the outcome is far from being in the bag.

 

That 51:22 was what I liked too...it tells me he won't force bad throws when he doesn't have to and with this defense that could often be the case.

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Fair Shot lol

Mac traded for him. Just because Geno in June is first on the depth chart doesn't mean there's a bias against Fitz

He traded a future seventh rounder for him, hardly a commitment.

Also, Maccagnan isn't Bowles' boss. Both men report directly to Woody. Maccagnan's job is to acquire talent, it's Bowles' job to put that talent to use to win football games. I don't think Maccagnan has much say on the cutdowns for the 53 man roster, and I don't think he has any say at all -outside of maybe making suggestions- as to who gets on the field.

Geno will enter training camp as the #1 QB, and it will continue to be his job to lose. These guys are taking the long view. They want to make the determination in person whether Geno can be the guy or not before moving on from him. It would be very surprising if they decide to move on from him in training camp. He would have to perform epically bad, while Fitzpatrick tears it up with the second string. I think he gets at least the first month of the season. Their bye comes week 5, perfect time to make the change if they've lost all faith in Geno at that point.

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This is interesting:

 

Fitzpatrick played in a total of 38 games over the course of his career in which he faced a double-digit deficit before his team headed for the tunnel at halftime.  Between 2010-2012 with Buffalo, the Bills found themselves down by ten or more in the first half sixteen different times which left Buffalo’s offense in far too many obvious passing situations.

According to pro-footballreference.comFitzpatrick has thrown 51 career touchdowns to just 22 interceptions when playing with the lead or in a tie game.

 

 

Great job Glenn!

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Same here, that's why I left out the games in which they trailed by double digits in the second half.  I think those situations are more indicative of a defense laying off a little bit to go prevent.  A double-digit deficit isn't easy to overcome in the fist  half, but defenses aren't exactly going to take their foot off the gas with a 14-3 lead at the half.  They're in control, but the outcome is far from being in the bag.

 

That 51:22 was what I liked too...it tells me he won't force bad throws when he doesn't have to and with this defense that could often be the case.

 

I am kind of getting off TD:INT ratio as the be all end all though.  I read some articles about higher INT totals not always being bad (take risks when you are down) and have seen some strange stats.  For instance, I was looking at Jeff George's 1997 the other day.  Nearly 4,000 yards, 29:9 TD:INT, 7.5 ypa and the team still sucked.  4-12 and that is with Napoleon Kaufman going for almost 1,300 at 4.8 yards a clip.  Sure he was around 55%, but could you imagine how happy we'd have been with that?  Man, that D must've sucked.  I'd like to know his QBR.  I bet ESPN would have some strange way to knock George's year down.

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Where is the author getting this data on the wins?  He's 33-55-1 as a starter.

 

The W-L in the article refers to his record when putting up 21+ points on offense.

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That's why I have doubts, not certainties.

If Fitz outplays Geno or Geno screws up in preseason he'll be the week 1 qb. Contrary to what most people say Fitz's body of work doesn't mean the starting job should be simply handed to him he's not Peyton Manning.

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Collectively, Fitzpatrick has seen his teams compile an overall record of just 20-18, a .526 winning percentage, when he has been under center for the majority of his team’s snaps since getting his first legitimate shot as a starter.  The 47 games in which his team has surrendered 21 points or more represents more than half  of those (53%).

 

By comparison, the Jets, in that same time frame (including playoffs), despite some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL  have gone 46-12 when scoring 21 points or more (.793), propelled largely by their 2009 and 2010 campaigns in which they went a combined 20-3.

 

48 games where Fitz's offenses put up 21+ points.  That's a little under 7 per season for the years he's been a starter in this league.  We'd have killed for this kind of productivity in the Rex era, and this article proves it. And it's not like he's been slinging it to the best receivers the game has had to offer, which has been a reason to give a big ol' free pass for Sanchez and Geno over the years here.

 

Conquering.  Mother F**kin.  Hero.

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Where is the author getting this data on the wins?  He's 33-55-1 as a starter.

 

When he put up 21+ points as a legit starter in the NFL (from 2008 and beyond), he went 20-18.  I.E. nearly half the time his defenses failed him when he did his job.  It also means that in his 84 starts as a pro QB, he's done his job in 57 % of them.  That's a pretty solid rate, I'd say.

 

Compare that to the Jets, who went 46-12 since 2009, including 20-3 in the first 2 years of the Sanchez era.  Almost every time Sanchez and Geno have put up 21+, the Jets have won.  This means the defense's supporting Sanchez and Geno have been far superior to Fitz's, as we know.  Pair Fitz with the 2009-2014 Jet defenses or even anything close to that, and you would likely be nearly flipping that W-L record in the other direction.

 

But numbers are ghey and stuff so whatevs.

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He traded a future seventh rounder for him, hardly a commitment.

Also, Maccagnan isn't Bowles' boss. Both men report directly to Woody. Maccagnan's job is to acquire talent, it's Bowles' job to put that talent to use to win football games. I don't think Maccagnan has much say on the cutdowns for the 53 man roster, and I don't think he has any say at all -outside of maybe making suggestions- as to who gets on the field.

Geno will enter training camp as the #1 QB, and it will continue to be his job to lose. These guys are taking the long view. They want to make the determination in person whether Geno can be the guy or not before moving on from him. It would be very surprising if they decide to move on from him in training camp. He would have to perform epically bad, while Fitzpatrick tears it up with the second string. I think he gets at least the first month of the season. Their bye comes week 5, perfect time to make the change if they've lost all faith in Geno at that point.

Mac gave the Texans fair market value for Fitz. He's a career journeyman who has never won more than 8 games in a season and is coming off a significant injury Mac isn't giving up multiple 1st's.

This idea that the new regime is unfairly biased for Geno just because they didn't cut him or demote him to 3rd string is childish.

My prediction Geno keeps the starting job and performs decently enough in weeks 1-3 when we're not facing any great defenses. His first real test will be week 4 at Miami.

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FitzPatrick has played on some horrible teams

 

Yes he has, and that's why I never get the logic behind his W-L record.  All you can ask a QB to do is put points on the board.  Fitzpatrick is far from elite, but he's played well enough to win a lot more games if his defenses weren't so bad.  Team game.

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Yes he has, and that's why I never get the logic behind his W-L record.  All you can ask a QB to do is put points on the board.  Fitzpatrick is far from elite, but he's played well enough to win a lot more games if his defenses weren't so bad.  Team game.

 

It's bizarre.  For years people argued that the only reason Sanchez and Geno have had any success was because of our defense.  Now we get a QB who has proven to be able to consistently put points on the board and he's a "career loser".  What?

 

Can't have it both ways.  If you isolate the performances of the QB, Fitz is clearly about an average QB, which is better than the bottom 5 QB play we've gotten since 2009.

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It's bizarre.  For years people argued that the only reason Sanchez and Geno have had any success was because of our defense.  Now we get a QB who has proven to be able to consistently put points on the board and he's a "career loser".  What?

 

Yep...nobody is saying Fitz is going to Canton, but he's better than what the Jets have had for years.  If you're going to look at the wins and losses, it doesn't make sense to pretend the defense didn't play a role in that.

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Let's say, for argument's sake, Fitz had been paired with the Jet defenses from 2009-14, and had won games at the same clip (79 % of the time) as Jet QB's did in that same period when putting up 21+ points.

 

Fitz's record in that span would have improved from 19-18 to 29-8 in those games.  Just that change alone would give him a career winning record.

 

Not to mention all the 13-10 types of games he would won and added to his resume that he otherwise wouldn't have won with the likes of Buffalo and Tennessee. 

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He traded a future seventh rounder for him, hardly a commitment.

Also, Maccagnan isn't Bowles' boss. Both men report directly to Woody. Maccagnan's job is to acquire talent, it's Bowles' job to put that talent to use to win football games. I don't think Maccagnan has much say on the cutdowns for the 53 man roster, and I don't think he has any say at all -outside of maybe making suggestions- as to who gets on the field.

Geno will enter training camp as the #1 QB, and it will continue to be his job to lose. These guys are taking the long view. They want to make the determination in person whether Geno can be the guy or not before moving on from him. It would be very surprising if they decide to move on from him in training camp. He would have to perform epically bad, while Fitzpatrick tears it up with the second string. I think he gets at least the first month of the season. Their bye comes week 5, perfect time to make the change if they've lost all faith in Geno at that point.

MacDaddy and Bowles have "Zero, Zip, Nada" invested in Smith! They have a 4th rd. hand-picked development QB in Petty who will be given a year or two to develop. Bowles will start the guy who gives them the best chance to win. Whoever looks best in TC and Pre-season will be the starter. If they both look equal.... then Geno gets the Game 1 start on 2 game increments. Play well for 2 games... get another 2 games. Play poorly in 2 straight games.... Fitz gets the ball.

You don't spend $50 mil in FA hoping that Geno gives you something!!

Woody wants wins! That's why Mo doesn't have an extension yet... every dollar is being put into wins this year.

 

Chan pushed for the Amish Rifle.... he doesn't want anybody screwing up his offensive scheme... he's been out of football for 2 years; this is his rebirth. Fitz is his guy and I think you'll see him Game 1 vs. Cleveland

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Let's say, for argument's sake, Fitz had been paired with the Jet defenses from 2009-14, and had won games at the same clip (79 % of the time) as Jet QB's did in that same period when putting up 21+ points.

 

Fitz's record in that span would have improved from 19-18 to 29-8 in those games.  Just that change alone would give him a career winning record.

 

Not to mention all the 13-10 types of games he would won and added to his resume that he otherwise wouldn't have won with the likes of Buffalo and Tennessee. 

 

I still can't get over the fact that the Jets won 11 games in 2010 and three of their losses came in games in which their defense gave up ten points or less.  Even with a bad QB, you should win any game when your defense gives up 10 or less.  Sanchez wasn't even good enough to be bad.

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Yes he has, and that's why I never get the logic behind his W-L record.  All you can ask a QB to do is put points on the board.  Fitzpatrick is far from elite, but he's played well enough to win a lot more games if his defenses weren't so bad.  Team game.

Thanks for the research Glen.... excellent stuff! Never knew how well Fitz record could have been.

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Thanks for the research Glen.... excellent stuff! Never knew how well Fitz record could have been.

 

Thanks...just came out of curiosity really.  I knew he'd had some seasons where he put up a ton of points but still had bad records so just figured I'd delve a little deeper and see how bad his defenses were and how often he was trying to come from behind when opponents jumped out to big leads early on.  As somebody else said, he's played on some terrible teams.

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MacDaddy and Bowles have "Zero, Zip, Nada" invested in Smith! They have a 4th rd. hand-picked development QB in Petty who will be given a year or two to develop. Bowles will start the guy who gives them the best chance to win. Whoever looks best in TC and Pre-season will be the starter. If they both look equal.... then Geno gets the Game 1 start on 2 game increments. Play well for 2 games... get another 2 games. Play poorly in 2 straight games.... Fitz gets the ball.You don't spend $50 mil in FA hoping that Geno gives you something!!Woody wants wins! That's why Mo doesn't have an extension yet... every dollar is being put into wins this year.

 

Chan pushed for the Amish Rifle.... he doesn't want anybody screwing up his offensive scheme... he's been out of football for 2 years; this is his rebirth. Fitz is his guy and I think you'll see him Game 1 vs. Cleveland

The same Chan who said that Geno will be the starter barring injury?

The new guys don't have any more invested in Geno than they have in Jace Amaro, but both will almost certainly be starting opening day. As a former second round pick he's still seen as someone with untapped potential. Physically, he has it all over Fitzpatrick - He's bigger, faster, has a stronger arm, and he's younger. The odds may very well be against it, but if the light clicks on for Geno, the Jets could suddenly be set at the QB position for the long haul. They're going to be willing to potentially sacrifice a couple wins this year to explore that possibility.

Fitzpatrick is a quality veteran backup QB who can give you some starts. Best backup the Jets have had in a long time. But if the Jets find themselves turning to him as the starter, it means that they'll be starting at square one at the position again next year - without having a clear opinion of Smith. They won't want to be in that position.

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The same Chan who said that Geno will be the starter barring injury?

The new guys don't have any more invested in Geno than they have in Jace Amaro, but both will almost certainly be starting opening day. As a former second round pick he's still seen as someone with untapped potential. Physically, he has it all over Fitzpatrick - He's bigger, faster, has a stronger arm, and he's younger. The odds may very well be against it, but if the light clicks on for Geno, the Jets could suddenly be set at the QB position for the long haul. They're going to be willing to potentially sacrifice a couple wins this year to explore that possibility.

Fitzpatrick is a quality veteran backup QB who can give you some starts. Best backup the Jets have had in a long time. But if the Jets find themselves turning to him as the starter, it means that they'll be starting at square one at the position again next year - without having a clear opinion of Smith. They won't want to be in that position.

The same Chan who said that Geno will be the starter barring injury? 

A: That's been the standard party line since they made the trade. You don't bring in a veteran Starter unless you have doubts about your incoming starter. Even Fitz is saying that.

You try and build up the young player's confidence, but I bet Chan and Fitz expect Fitz to be running the show once he is healthy. 

 

Fitzpatrick is a quality veteran backup QB who can give you some starts

A: Did you read Glen's article on Fitz record when putting up 21 points? This guy makes good decisions with the football unlike Geno.

Obviously Geno having a big year 3 would be great for the Jets while they develop Petty. If not, Fitz is the guy this year, who can be re-upped next year if Petty or whoever is not ready.

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The same Chan who said that Geno will be the starter barring injury? 

A: That's been the standard party line since they made the trade. You don't bring in a veteran Starter unless you have doubts about your incoming starter. Even Fitz is saying that.

You try and build up the young player's confidence, but I bet Chan and Fitz expect Fitz to be running the show once he is healthy. 

 

Fitzpatrick is a quality veteran backup QB who can give you some starts

A: Did you read Glen's article on Fitz record when putting up 21 points? This guy makes good decisions with the football unlike Geno.

Obviously Geno having a big year 3 would be great for the Jets while they develop Petty. If not, Fitz is the guy this year, who can be re-upped next year if Petty or whoever is not ready.

I'm just trying to help you out. I think you're confusing what you want to happen with what you think is most likely to happen.

I'd have no problem with Fitzpatrick starting the whole season, but based on what the coaches have been saying, and the work each QB has gotten so far, I think it's pretty obvious that they plan to go with Geno.

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I'm just trying to help you out. I think you're confusing what you want to happen with what you think is most likely to happen.

I'd have no problem with Fitzpatrick starting the whole season, but based on what the coaches have been saying, and the work each QB has gotten so far, I think it's pretty obvious that they plan to go with Geno.

Slats, you do realize that in OTA's the 10 year vet was basically in the rehab area all day. Ran a few plays, but mostly the 3rd yr. project the UDFA and the 4th rd. pick were getting the snaps.

 

Let's see how the QB workload is distributed as we get closer to the Pre-season games.

 

Thanks for helping me out, though.... You are my Yoda

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Yes he has, and that's why I never get the logic behind his W-L record. All you can ask a QB to do is put points on the board. Fitzpatrick is far from elite, but he's played well enough to win a lot more games if his defenses weren't so bad. Team game.

By horrible team are you referring to when he had Andre Johnson and JJ Watt?

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By horrible team are you referring to when he had Andre Johnson and JJ Watt?

Yes, I was focusing primarily on the 12 starts he had in Houston and ignoring the other meaningless 70 or so he racked up prior to that.

SMH

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It's bizarre.  For years people argued that the only reason Sanchez and Geno have had any success was because of our defense.  Now we get a QB who has proven to be able to consistently put points on the board and he's a "career loser".  What?

 

Can't have it both ways.  If you isolate the performances of the QB, Fitz is clearly about an average QB, which is better than the bottom 5 QB play we've gotten since 2009.

Because Fitz never, ever would have put up as many points with the Jets the last 3 seasons as he did on most of the teams he's been with. That absolutely has to be part of the conversation. This team has left the QB with nothing on O

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Because Fitz never, ever would have put up as many points with the Jets the last 3 seasons as he did on most of the teams he's been with. That absolutely has to be part of the conversation. This team has left the QB with nothing on O

 

Nope, the weapinzzz argument doesn't quite work in your favor on this one.  Can you name his top receiver when he was in Buffalo and Tennessee?  Here, I'll help you with that:

 

2009 (BUF):  36 year old Terrell Owens (55 catches) and bust Lee Evans.  Marshawn was on the team still but for some reason (injury?) only got 120 carries that year.  Fred Jackson had 237. 

 

2010 (BUF):  Steve Johnson (82 catches), Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Jackson and CJ Spiller.

 

2011 (BUF):   Johnson (76 catches), David Nelson, Scott Chandler, Jackson and Spiller.

 

2012 (BUF):  Johnson (79 catches), Chandler, Spiller, Jackson.  Fitz had 24 TD's/16 INT's in his final season with Chan Gailey.

 

2013 (TEN):  Kendall Wright (94 catches), Delanie Walker, Nate Washington, Chris Johnson.

 

Only last year with an aging Andre Johnson and emerging DeAndre Hopkins did he actually have viable targets that were better than the targets Sanchez and Geno have had. 

 

And we saw the results when that happened.  He had a 6-TD performance and actually had a winning record as starter before he went down with the leg injury.

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Nope, the weapinzzz argument doesn't quite work in your favor on this one. Can you name his top receiver when he was in Buffalo and Tennessee? Here, I'll help you with that:

2009 (BUF): 36 year old Terrell Owens (55 catches) and bust Lee Evans. Marshawn was on the team still but for some reason (injury?) only got 120 carries that year. Fred Jackson had 237.

2010 (BUF): Steve Johnson (82 catches), Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Jackson and CJ Spiller.

2011 (BUF): Johnson (76 catches), David Nelson, Scott Chandler, Jackson and Spiller.

2012 (BUF): Johnson (79 catches), Chandler, Spiller, Jackson. Fitz had 24 TD's/16 INT's in his final season with Chan Gailey.

2013 (TEN): Kendall Wright (94 catches), Delanie Walker, Nate Washington, Chris Johnson.

Only last year with an aging Andre Johnson and emerging DeAndre Hopkins did he actually have viable targets that were better than the targets Sanchez and Geno have had.

And we saw the results when that happened. He had a 6-TD performance and actually had a winning record as starter before he went down with the leg injury.

Nice list, all are better than the last three seasons here. Makes my point. I would have killed for this list over what we had.

Actually my main point is that cherry picking stats, games where he scored whatever number of points helps make him look better is a waste of time. He was signed to be the backup and unless Geno gets off to an awful start he's on the bench

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By horrible team are you referring to when he had Andre Johnson and JJ Watt?

 

Yes, his 1 year with Houston (where he was 13th in DVOA and had a winning record as starter) he had plenty of talent around him.  From 2009-2013, he had much less talent than Sanchez or Geno.  That is very, very clear when you take even a passing glance at the numbers.

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