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Am I nuts, or are there RB/WR1s in late rounds?


Dcronin
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In all the mock drafts I've done, there are players who could be, likely will be solid starters, in later rounds. People like:

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts

Matt Jones, RB, Skins

Jay Ajayi, RB, Phins

Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill (actually like the idea of taking both of them)

Have you seen this too?

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  • 4 weeks later...

There is every year, right now my late round targets are WR: josh gordon, kamar aiken (or wallace, if you believe he's a good match for flacco), jameson crowder (expect to be cousins' most reliable pass catcher), marvin jones, stefon diggs, Sammie coates, tyler lockett. RB's I like ameer abdullah, jay ajayi, wendell smallwood, josh ferguson & duke johnson

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/24/2016 at 9:30 PM, cant wait said:

There is every year, right now my late round targets are WR: josh gordon, kamar aiken (or wallace, if you believe he's a good match for flacco), jameson crowder (expect to be cousins' most reliable pass catcher), marvin jones, stefon diggs, Sammie coates, tyler lockett. RB's I like ameer abdullah, jay ajayi, wendell smallwood, josh ferguson & duke johnson

Good list. 

I'm very high on Tyler Lockett this year. 

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On 7/27/2016 at 2:38 AM, Dcronin said:

In all the mock drafts I've done, there are players who could be, likely will be solid starters, in later rounds. People like:

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts

Matt Jones, RB, Skins

Jay Ajayi, RB, Phins

Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill (actually like the idea of taking both of them)

Have you seen this too?

All these draft strategies say ZERO RB.

I dunno. I'm looking over mock drafts and there are viable WRs that can be gotten in every one of the first 5 rounds. RB, on the other hand, turns into mush after round 2. With that much WR wealth available, you gotta figure every team in your league is going to be 3-strong at WR. Essentially canceling out week-to-week. Meanwhile, RBs are going to be lottery tickets that decide championships.

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All these draft strategies say ZERO RB.

I dunno. I'm looking over mock drafts and there are viable WRs that can be gotten in every one of the first 5 rounds. RB, on the other hand, turns into mush after round 2. With that much WR wealth available, you gotta figure every team in your league is going to be 3-strong at WR. Essentially canceling out week-to-week. Meanwhile, RBs are going to be lottery tickets that decide championships.

Having a good te is usually a game changer, last season there were a lot of decent ones though

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All these draft strategies say ZERO RB.

I dunno. I'm looking over mock drafts and there are viable WRs that can be gotten in every one of the first 5 rounds. RB, on the other hand, turns into mush after round 2. With that much WR wealth available, you gotta figure every team in your league is going to be 3-strong at WR. Essentially canceling out week-to-week. Meanwhile, RBs are going to be lottery tickets that decide championships.

I guess it depends on the league, but I would try to go zero RB. In my home league, only three teams went zero RB and I was the only person to go WR in the first five rounds. Julio, Jeffery, Watkins, Floyd, M. Jones. With Parker as my WR6 on the bench. Zero RB makes the most sense because a) receivers score more points, and B) the bust rate in running backs is much higher. Even if last year is considered an outlier, with its absolutely astronomical early RB bust rate.

My starting RBs are Duke Johnson and Gio. With Yeldon and Ware on my bench (though Ware is obviously now in my lineup). I'll gladly take my chances with these backs, combined with my WRs. You can find backs in season. I do it every year. WRs? Not as much. For every David Johnson, there is not an Odell Beckham.

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6 hours ago, The Troll said:

I guess it depends on the league, but I would try to go zero RB. In my home league, only three teams went zero RB and I was the only person to go WR in the first five rounds. Julio, Jeffery, Watkins, Floyd, M. Jones. With Parker as my WR6 on the bench. Zero RB makes the most sense because a) receivers score more points, and B) the bust rate in running backs is much higher. Even if last year is considered an outlier, with its absolutely astronomical early RB bust rate.

My starting RBs are Duke Johnson and Gio. With Yeldon and Ware on my bench (though Ware is obviously now in my lineup). I'll gladly take my chances with these backs, combined with my WRs. You can find backs in season. I do it every year. WRs? Not as much. For every David Johnson, there is not an Odell Beckham.

Beckham and Johnson were both late round sleepers the years they popped... But I get your point, and agree.

I do three leagues, and mostly stuck with BPA at WR or RB. I had the 2, 2, and 4th overall picks.

In each league I've got a nice mix of studs, heavily anchored by top WRs. RBs are a smattering of starters, PPR backs, and lottery tickets.

 

 

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Beckham and Johnson were both late round sleepers the years they popped... But I get your point, and agree.

I do three leagues, and mostly stuck with BPA at WR or RB. I had the 2, 2, and 4th overall picks.

In each league I've got a nice mix of studs, heavily anchored by top WRs. RBs are a smattering of starters, PPR backs, and lottery tickets.

 

 

The viability of it also depends on league context. How many receivers can you start, etc. It will be interesting to see how it works out this year, because there's just no way RB will have the same insanely high bust rate as last year.

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6 hours ago, The Troll said:

I guess it depends on the league, but I would try to go zero RB. In my home league, only three teams went zero RB and I was the only person to go WR in the first five rounds. Julio, Jeffery, Watkins, Floyd, M. Jones. With Parker as my WR6 on the bench. Zero RB makes the most sense because a) receivers score more points, and B) the bust rate in running backs is much higher. Even if last year is considered an outlier, with its absolutely astronomical early RB bust rate.

My starting RBs are Duke Johnson and Gio. With Yeldon and Ware on my bench (though Ware is obviously now in my lineup). I'll gladly take my chances with these backs, combined with my WRs. You can find backs in season. I do it every year. WRs? Not as much. For every David Johnson, there is not an Odell Beckham.

 

I went with an element of "Zero RB" approach in my big money league draft last night (standard settings - no PPR, 10-team league). 

There were RB's I liked at certain places in the draft, such as Bell, Jamaal Charles, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Langford, Frank Gore, Chris Ivory, Derrick Henry, and others who I felt were getting a bit undervalued.  However, I didn't end up with any of those guys, as they seemed to get plucked just before I could snag them every single time.  And in a 10-team league where there SHOULD be decent RB's to be had throughout the draft, that was frustrating.

Here's what I ended up with, with full knowledge that I will most definitely be in the market to make a trade the minute someone else's top WR goes down with an injury:

 

Round 1.6:  WR Odell Beckham

Round 2.15:  WR Allen Robinson

Round 3.26:  WR Keenan Allen

Round 4.35:  WR Brandin Cooks (also considered taking Forte here)

Round 5.46:  TE Jordan Reed

Round 6.55:  WR Josh Gordon (definitely a reach here, but I do think when all is said and done he'll be a Top 50 fantasy player despite the suspension)

Round 7.66:  RB Matt Jones (wanted Frank Gore here)

Round 8.75:  RB Rashad Jennings

Round 9.86:  WR Stefon Diggs (wanted Ivory or Henry here, both got scooped up just before my turn came up)

Round 10.95:  RB Gio Bernard

Round 11.106:  RB Isaiah Crowell (my thinking is he'll exceed his ADP under running game/analytics guru Hue Jackson)

Round 12.115:  WR Torrey Smith

Round 13.126:  RB Christine Michael (news broke hours before the draft that he'd be the lead RB on the Seattle depth chart for Week 1, was already targeting him anyways)

Round 14.135:  QB Eli Manning

Round 15.146:  D/ST Chiefs

Round 16.155:  K Chandler Catanzaro

 

Week 1 lineup:

 

QB - Eli Manning

RB1 - Rashad Jennings

RB2 - Christine Michael

WR1 - Odell Beckham

WR2 - Allen Robinson

TE - Jordan Reed

Flex - Keenan Allen

D/ST - Chiefs

K - Chandler Catanzaro

 

Bench:

 

WR Brandin Cooks

RB Matt Jones

WR Josh Gordon

WR Stefon Diggs

RB Gio Bernard

RB Isaiah Crowell

WR Torrey Smith

 

How did I do?

 

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I went with an element of "Zero RB" approach in my big money league draft last night (standard settings - no PPR, 10-team league). 

There were RB's I liked at certain places in the draft, such as Bell, Jamaal Charles, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Langford, Frank Gore, Chris Ivory, Derrick Henry, and others who I felt were getting a bit undervalued.  However, I didn't end up with any of those guys, as they seemed to get plucked just before I could snag them every single time. 

Here's what I ended up with:

 

Round 1.6:  WR Odell Beckham

Round 2.15:  WR Allen Robinson

Round 3.26:  WR Keenan Allen

Round 4.35:  WR Brandin Cooks (also considered taking Forte here)

Round 5.46:  TE Jordan Reed

Round 6.55:  WR Josh Gordon (definitely a reach here, but I do think when all is said and done he'll be a Top 50 fantasy player despite the suspension)

Round 7.66:  RB Matt Jones (wanted Frank Gore here)

Round 8.75:  RB Rashad Jennings

Round 9.86:  WR Stefon Diggs (wanted Ivory or Henry here, both got scooped up just before my turn came up)

Round 10.95:  RB Gio Bernard

Round 11.106:  RB Isaiah Crowell (my thinking is he'll exceed his ADP under running game/analytics guru Hue Jackson)

Round 12.115:  WR Torrey Smith

Round 13.126:  RB Christine Michael (news broke hours before the draft that he'd be the lead RB on the Seattle depth chart for Week 1, was already targeting him anyways)

Round 14.135:  QB Eli Manning

Round 15.146:  D/ST Chiefs

Round 16.155:  K Chandler Catanzaro

 

Week 1 lineup:

 

QB - Eli Manning

RB1 - Rashad Jennings

RB2 - Christine Michael

WR1 - Odell Beckham

WR2 - Allen Robinson

TE - Jordan Reed

Flex - Keenan Allen

D/ST - Chiefs

K - Chandler Catanzaro

 

Bench:

 

WR Brandin Cooks

RB Matt Jones

WR Josh Gordon

WR Stefon Diggs

RB Gio Bernard

RB Isaiah Crowell

WR Torrey Smith

 

How did I do?

 

It looks great to me, but I don't really know how to judge a 10-teamer. But, I'd venture to guess there wouldn't be a team I'd prefer to that one. Elite WR corps combined with a top 2 TE. You'll be able to cobble something together RB wise. Michael was a great pick.

Any interesting backs on the wire? You're pretty damn strong at WR and you can only start 3 a week. I'd drop Torrey and add another back.

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11 minutes ago, The Troll said:

It looks great to me, but I don't really know how to judge a 10-teamer. But, I'd venture to guess there wouldn't be a team I'd prefer to that one. Elite WR corps combined with a top 2 TE. You'll be able to cobble something together RB wise. Michael was a great pick.

Any interesting backs on the wire? You're pretty damn strong at WR and you can only start 3 a week. I'd drop Torrey and add another back.

 

The only back I'd consider picking up right now would be James White.  But since it's not a PPR league, and I do think he'll eventually lose the "passing downs back" role to someone like DJ Foster, I'm hesitant to cut Torrey Smith just to pick him up, since I wouldn't be starting White this week anyways. Over the long haul of the season, I think Smith has more value.

This league is a competitive one, and did a good job rostering pretty much all backs of significance. 

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The only back I'd consider picking up right now would be James White.  But since it's not a PPR league, and I do think he'll eventually lose the "passing downs back" role to someone like DJ Foster, I'm hesitant to cut Torrey Smith just to pick him up, since I wouldn't be starting White this week anyways. 

Over the long haul of the season, I think Smith has more value. 

Maybe not a plug and play guy, but a stash? Tevin Coleman? McKinnon?

I think the Niners offense is going to be a dumpster fire. Torrey was targeted 3 times all preseason. He doesn't appear to be a big part of the offense, but the real games haven't started yet and they truly don't have anyone else, so we'll see what happens.

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2 minutes ago, The Troll said:

Maybe not a plug and play guy, but a stash? Tevin Coleman? McKinnon?

I think the Niners offense is going to be a dumpster fire. Torrey was targeted 3 times all preseason. He doesn't appear to be a big part of the offense, but the real games haven't started yet and they truly don't have anyone else, so we'll see what happens.

Tevin Coleman is also available.  As are are Justin Forsett (whose role in that Ravens backfield is of course undefined right now), and Redskins backup RB Robert Kelley.

The Niners definitely suck, but they have to throw to someone, and Smith really needs to be rostered in every 10-team league and maybe all 12-team leagues.  Just in case. 

I think I'll just wait and see.  Eventually an injury-prone WR like, say, Alshon Jeffery will get hurt, and I'll have an opportunity to make a trade.  And of course I'll scour the waiver wire like a hawk.  But not until Week 2.

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Tevin Coleman is also available.  As are are Justin Forsett (whose role in that Ravens backfield is undefined right now), and Redskins backup RB Robert Kelley.

I would pick up Coleman. RB1 potential if something happens to Freeman and it's not inconceivable that Freeman plays his way out of a job since he was pretty awful the last two months of the season. He's exactly the kind of lottery ticket a zero RB team needs.

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Just now, The Troll said:

I would pick up Coleman. RB1 potential if something happens to Freeman and it's not inconceivable that Freeman plays his way out of a job since he was pretty awful the last two months of the season. He's exactly the kind of lottery ticket a zero RB team needs.

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I just think the Falcons will pass a lot more this season, and especially so if Freeman gets hurt.  Coleman just isn't really anything special, is he? 

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22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I went with an element of "Zero RB" approach in my big money league draft last night (standard settings - no PPR, 10-team league). 

There were RB's I liked at certain places in the draft, such as Bell, Jamaal Charles, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Langford, Frank Gore, Chris Ivory, Derrick Henry, and others who I felt were getting a bit undervalued.  However, I didn't end up with any of those guys, as they seemed to get plucked just before I could snag them every single time.  And in a 10-team league where there SHOULD be decent RB's to be had throughout the draft, that was frustrating.

Here's what I ended up with, with full knowledge that I will most definitely be in the market to make a trade the minute someone else's top WR goes down with an injury:

 

Round 1.6:  WR Odell Beckham

Round 2.15:  WR Allen Robinson

Round 3.26:  WR Keenan Allen

Round 4.35:  WR Brandin Cooks (also considered taking Forte here)

Round 5.46:  TE Jordan Reed

Round 6.55:  WR Josh Gordon (definitely a reach here, but I do think when all is said and done he'll be a Top 50 fantasy player despite the suspension)

Round 7.66:  RB Matt Jones (wanted Frank Gore here)

Round 8.75:  RB Rashad Jennings

Round 9.86:  WR Stefon Diggs (wanted Ivory or Henry here, both got scooped up just before my turn came up)

Round 10.95:  RB Gio Bernard

Round 11.106:  RB Isaiah Crowell (my thinking is he'll exceed his ADP under running game/analytics guru Hue Jackson)

Round 12.115:  WR Torrey Smith

Round 13.126:  RB Christine Michael (news broke hours before the draft that he'd be the lead RB on the Seattle depth chart for Week 1, was already targeting him anyways)

Round 14.135:  QB Eli Manning

Round 15.146:  D/ST Chiefs

Round 16.155:  K Chandler Catanzaro

 

Week 1 lineup:

 

QB - Eli Manning

RB1 - Rashad Jennings

RB2 - Christine Michael

WR1 - Odell Beckham

WR2 - Allen Robinson

TE - Jordan Reed

Flex - Keenan Allen

D/ST - Chiefs

K - Chandler Catanzaro

 

Bench:

 

WR Brandin Cooks

RB Matt Jones

WR Josh Gordon

WR Stefon Diggs

RB Gio Bernard

RB Isaiah Crowell

WR Torrey Smith

 

How did I do?

 

10 man league are too easy IMO.  But this team is loaded and I'd like to play in this league.

 

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I just think the Falcons will pass a lot more this season, and especially so if Freeman gets hurt.  Coleman just isn't really anything special, is he? 

YouTube his college highlights. They are quite impressive. He did average a half yard more per carry than Freeman last year. The Falcons also like to run near the goal-line. Which is stupid, because I would just call a fade to Julio for four straight plays and not just because I own him. Well, mostly that, but like that wouldn't work?

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1 minute ago, The Troll said:

YouTube his college highlights. They are quite impressive. He did average a half yard more per carry than Freeman last year. The Falcons also like to run near the goal-line. Which is stupid, because I would just call a fade to Julio for four straight plays and not just because I own him. Well, mostly that, but like that wouldn't work?

 

I hear ya.  The book on Coleman seems to be he has awesome breakaway speed but struggles in the "power running" needed out of a zone blocking scheme.  Still, he has a lot of attractiveness in the passing game and could have nice value even if Freeman never gets hurt or declines in play this year. 

Yeah, if I'm going to pick someone up, he would seem to be the guy to get.

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12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The only back I'd consider picking up right now would be James White.  But since it's not a PPR league, and I do think he'll eventually lose the "passing downs back" role to someone like DJ Foster, I'm hesitant to cut Torrey Smith just to pick him up, since I wouldn't be starting White this week anyways. Over the long haul of the season, I think Smith has more value.

This league is a competitive one, and did a good job rostering pretty much all backs of significance. 

Kenneth Dixon?

Agreed, Tevin Coleman is s beast lottery ticket. More valuable, imo, than Torrey Smith.

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I hear ya.  The book on Coleman seems to be he has awesome breakaway speed but struggles in the "power running" needed out of a zone blocking scheme.  Still, he has a lot of attractiveness in the passing game and could have nice value even if Freeman never gets hurt or declines in play this year. 

Yeah, if I'm going to pick someone up, he would seem to be the guy to get.

He also had a fumbling problem as a rookie. Not without his warts, but definitely worth a roster spot due to upside.

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1 minute ago, Integrity28 said:

Kenneth Dixon?

Agreed, Tevin Coleman is s beast lottery ticket. More valuable, imo, than Torrey Smith.

Yep, Dixon is available as well.  And will probably end up the starting RB by midseason.  I might look to get him in a few weeks once things start to shake out.

OK, you guys convinced me.  I just put in a claim for Tevin.  And I'm the # 1 waiver priority, so he'll be on my roster tomorrow.  Thanks guys.

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Just now, The Troll said:

He also had a fumbling problem as a rookie. Not without his warts, but definitely worth a roster spot due to upside.

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Coming out of camp last year, he was going to be the 1A. He got nicked up, and then Devonta happened.

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Yep, Dixon is available as well.  And will probably end up the starting RB by midseason.  I might look to get him in a few weeks once things start to shake out.

OK, you guys convinced me.  I just put in a claim for Tevin.  And I'm the # 1 waiver priority, so he'll be on my roster tomorrow.

Good deal.

You can wait on Dixon in a fairly shallow league. I have him stashed, but it's 12 teams, 22 roster spots.

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Coming out of camp last year, he was going to be the 1A. He got nicked up, and then Devonta happened.

Man, f that guy.

Ended up getting him on waivers in a couple leagues, but Freeman was someone I didn't target at all because he showed basically nothing as a rookie. Then, he pulled a LeVeon Bell on me. Except Bell went from very ordinary to best RB on the planet while Freeman went from very ordinary to "had one great month". It still pissed me off.

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On 9/7/2016 at 11:12 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep, Dixon is available as well.  And will probably end up the starting RB by midseason.  I might look to get him in a few weeks once things start to shake out.

OK, you guys convinced me.  I just put in a claim for Tevin.  And I'm the # 1 waiver priority, so he'll be on my roster tomorrow.  Thanks guys.

FYI

 

Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan said the team will "go with the guy who's hot" at running back this season.

"Whoever's rolling with it, you stick with him," said Shanahan. "When they need a break, the other guy comes in. You try to keep them both fresh to see how it pans out at the end of the game." While ESPN Falcons reporter Vaughan said he still considers Coleman the "workhorse," Shanahan's words suggest otherwise. Coleman lost the starting job to Freeman after suffering a rib injury last season but now he's back and ready to cut into Freeman's workload. With Coleman nipping at his heels, Freeman projects as more of an RB2/3 against the Bucs this week.
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2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

FYI

 

Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan said the team will "go with the guy who's hot" at running back this season.

"Whoever's rolling with it, you stick with him," said Shanahan. "When they need a break, the other guy comes in. You try to keep them both fresh to see how it pans out at the end of the game." While ESPN Falcons reporter Vaughan said he still considers Coleman the "workhorse," Shanahan's words suggest otherwise. Coleman lost the starting job to Freeman after suffering a rib injury last season but now he's back and ready to cut into Freeman's workload. With Coleman nipping at his heels, Freeman projects as more of an RB2/3 against the Bucs this week.

 

Such awesome news to read.  Even if this quote isn't entirely trustworthy, have to think Tevin will have a role of some significance this year.  F*ck Devonta, Team Tevin all the way!!!

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I draft in a 12-team league with modified scoring.  No PPR but QBs get the full 6 pts for passing TDs and RBs get 1 pt. for every 25 yards rushing/receiving and 3 bonus points at 100 yards.  We have to play 2 RBs and 2 WRs every week (no flex).  So QBs get drafted earlier than in other leagues and you really need four serviceable RBs and WRs over the season.

What I found both in my research and during the draft was that there were a lot of nice #3 WRs in the late rounds, but RBs dried up really fast.

My first two backups came in rounds 8 and 9 - John Brown (WR) and Chris Ivory (RB).  I was fine with those picks.  I kept trying to get that 4th RB but really hated throwing away a pick on a guy who would only score if someone got hurt ahead of him.  That's a "last 3 rounds" kind of strategy.  I finally landed on James Starks in 13 but hope I never have to play him as long as Lacy is healthy.  On the other hand, I got Markus Wheaton in 14 and think he could end up challenging my #2 WR in the right conditions for starts.  Then in 15, I had a choice of Kevin White and Tayvon Austin as a 5th WR (I never draft 2 Defenses so I have that extra slot), both of whom could be serviceable (I went with White). 

It's a numbers game.  Most teams try to have 2-3 WRs who can score, but at most 2 RBs who, when splitting time, don't produce as much.  So even though the top WRs can definitely out-produce the top RBs these days, I think you still need to grab quality depth at RB earlier if you need to play them.

 

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@nycdan Interesting setup in that league. I like your philosophy too. Given that RB scoring is so scarce I can see why people would go RB-RB (maybe even RB-RB-RB), but you can't force it. 

And as to your point about elite WRs vs elite RBs, keep this in mind: WRs taken in the first 2 rounds return adequately on investment over 90 % of the time. RBs taken in the 1st 2 rounds? Only 65 % of the time. But the conundrum is you need consistent RB production to win your league. It's just much harder to tell which RBs will do that. So being smart about you RB picks, and perhaps taking a bunch of them throughout the draft to see who "pops", is so key.

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