BEST/WORST/MOST LIKELY SCENARIO MOCK DRAFT

[PepPep]

There have been so many unrealistic mocks going around based on some of these mock simulators that I thought I'd do a best/worst/most likely case scenario mock. Just going to do the first 3 rounds.  

Rd. 1:

BEST: A.Thomas- OT: Jet fans would be ecstatic if Thomas fell to 11. He's a legit LT, a plug and play prospect and solid in both the run and pas game. Truly a best case scenario for the Jets. 

WORST: J.Jones- OT: Top 4 OTs are off the board and top 2 WRs are off the board. This is HIGHLY unlikely. But it COULD happen. If it does, the Jets should probably still address their biggest need and take a developmental LT in J.Jones. BTW this is the WORST case scenario because I would take Jeudy or Lamb over J.Jones. 

*MOST LIKELY: M.Becton-OT: Odds are despite the hype there will be enough teams scared away by the 'bust' factor from Becton to take him over one of the top 3 OTs, thus, allowing him to slide to the Jets at 11. Only recently has Becton been rumored to be a top 10 prospect. He is a developmental LT. However, I still think he is a good pick for the Jets at 11 because of his immense upside. He will most likely be there and he will most likely be the pick.     

 

Rd. 2:    

BEST: Tee Higgins- WR: Yes, I know. He's going in Rd. 1. HIGHLY unlikely he falls to the Jets in Rd. 2. HOWEVER, I just saw Joe Marino on Feb. 24th mock him to the Browns at pick 53. And this IS a best case scenario, right? Lets say he pulls a hammy at the combine or doesn't interview well. With the amount of talent at the WR position there are a lot of guys that can push their way up the boards while a guy like Higgins slips just a bit with a slow 40 or a misstep. So it's possible. 

WORST: Michael Pittman Jr.-WR: Top Interior linemen are off the board, as are the top Edge rushers, Jets still need a WR desperately and the receiver talent is dwindling. Mims, Jefferson. Aiyuk were just selected in Rd. 2 as there was a run on WRs. The Jets get one of the last of the 2nd tier WR talent. Although unlikely that so many WRs go so early. 

*MOST LIKELY: Brandon Aiyuk- WR: Just going to go with a WR somewhere in between a top 5 guy falling from Rd. 1 and one of the last from that 2nd tier of WR talent. Realistically, a guy like Aiyuk should be there for the Jets and if he is, they should take him and plug a major hole at WR. 

 

Rd. 3 (Giants):

BEST: Curtis Weaver- Edge: Pass Rushers are a premium position and good ones go early in the draft. Even though this is a really early pick in the third round, if Weaver is still on the board, I think this is a best case scenario for the Jets to address their need at Edge after having already taken an O-lineman and WR. Weaver has been mocked as early as late in Rd. 1 to as late as mid to late 3rd. This is very much a possible pick. It's unlikely simply because pass rushers are valued so highly. 

WORST: Bryce Hall- CB: This is where things start to get a little hairy. Edge rusher value is not there, IOL value is not there, RB value is not there, the Jets REACH a bit for a CB and its really not a bad pick. I like Hall. But I do think its a reach and I do think its a worst case scenario where multiple other positions could have been addressed had the value been there. 

*MOST LIKELY: Jeff Gladney- CB: Although his stock has been soaring as of late, I still think he drops out of the first 2 rounds, just far enough where it represents great value for the Jets. The Jets look to be retaining Poole for the Nickel position and Gladney projects to play on the outside in the NFL. After addressing two positions on offense, they take a much needed outside CB. This is a good fit.  

Rd. 3 (Jets):

BEST: Tyler Biadasz- C/OG: This one is easy, Biadasz has been slipping in almost every mock while multiple other IOL have been rising above him. If he is there once the Jets address Edge, WR and LT, you HAVE to take him. He is a plug and play C, can probably play OG and in the middle of Rd. 3 represents great value. Best case scenario is Biadasz continues his fall and he is there when the Jets pick in the 3rd round. 

WORST: Anthony McFarland- RB: This was an interesting one. I think without good O-line value or Edge value the Jets could very well go after one of the better remaining RBs on the board. Again, I actually don't think this is a bad pick. I like the player but probably not in the 3rd round. If anything he will bring an explosive playmaker in the backfield. 

*MOST LIKELY: Cam Akers- RB: Bell is clearly out the door next year. Rumors have been swirling that the Jets may not even want to wait and move him this year, trading him for peanuts and taking on part of his salary. I don't know if that is true but the bottom line is that a guy like Cam Akers makes a ton of sense. I've been looking at Mocks and projections and this is right around where I see him falling. He's the 5th or 6th top RB on most big boards. I think he'd be a great pick for the Jets because he can do a little bit of everything, he's a downhill runner and he projects as a 3 down back. 

 

BEST: A.Thomas-OT, Tee Higgins-WR, Curtis Weaver-Edge, Tyler Biadasz- C/OG: A dream draft that will never happen, but a boy can dream, right? 

WORST: J.Jones-OT, Michael Pittman Jr.-WR, Bryce Hall- CB, Anthony McFarland- RB: A draft full of reaches. Really hoping this doesn't happen. But hey, at least the Jets get a nice developmental LT, a playmaker RB and a big target WR. 

MOST LIKELY:  M.Becton-OT, Brandon Aiyuk- WR, Jeff Gladney- CB, Cam Akers- RB: Honestly, if the draft played out this way I would jump for joy. This draft has the Jets catching some breaks (Gladney and Akers in the 3rd). Taking on a risky prospect with their 1st pick in Becton and using a very early pick on a probably the 9th or 10th ranked WR, which I have zero issue with.   

Let me know what ya'll think. Or not. I just do this for fun and take it with a grain of salt!  

[Greenseed4]

Great job on this. 

Let’s pretend Aiyuk isn’t there in the second, and the value is in CB. What say you? 
 

I see positional value landing in this order: LT, CB, WR, IOL/WR, WR/IOL, RB (Anthony McFarland, if rumors of the Jets crush are true) 

[PepPep]

44 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Great job on this. 

Let’s pretend Aiyuk isn’t there in the second, and the value is in CB. What say you? 
 

I see positional value landing in this order: LT, CB, WR, IOL/WR, WR/IOL, RB (Anthony McFarland, if rumors of the Jets crush are true) 

I am all over AJ Terrell if the best value is at the CB position in Rd. 2. His stock has slipped and I really don't know why but in my book he is easily a top 5 CB. And I agree, I do think we will see high CB value in Rd. 2. However, the Jets desperately need to address the WR position and can't wait, so I think they will take one in Rd. 2, even if it means passing on slightly better value at CB. Who knows, we shall see. 

[section314]

Saw something truly scary in the latest SI mock. We trade up to #7 with Carolina, giving them #11 and #68 this year, and next years 3rd rounder. We then drafted Wills.

[jetstream23]

On 2/26/2020 at 6:15 AM, section314 said:

Saw something truly scary in the latest SI mock. We trade up to #7 with Carolina, giving them #11 and #68 this year, and next years 3rd rounder. We then drafted Wills.

Ugh.  I'd puke on a trade like that.

IMO the absolute worst case scenario is that the Jets are forced to take the 5th OT or the 3rd WR.  It would be a scenario where they can't trade down for some reason, but after seeing Herbert throw tonight and Tua apparently having clean medicals it's almost impossible to imagine that all of the top OTs and WRs are gone as well as 3 QBs.  I think we'll either get a player we're happy with or the Jets will be able to trade down.

[bealeb319]

I like the idea of this post but I don't think pitmann even at a reach is worst case scenario the kid is talented and has experience with darnold. I'd much rather have Higgins over him but we could do worse.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[PepPep]

6 hours ago, bealeb319 said:

I like the idea of this post but I don't think pitmann even at a reach is worst case scenario the kid is talented and has experience with darnold. I'd much rather have Higgins over him but we could do worse.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

I agree. I did this back in Feb. I think if I was to re-do it it would look a little different now. Although, Thomas, Higgins, Weaver, and Biadasz would still be a dream scenario.  

[Adoni Beast]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

I agree. I did this back in Feb. I think if I was to re-do it it would look a little different now. Although, Thomas, Higgins, Weaver, and Biadasz would still be a dream scenario.  

I think with the virtual draft and a good chunk of gm’s who aren’t scouts that can run a draft solo, you’re going to see a lot of “high floor” players picked and less “upside” players.

Guys like Becton will slide and A.Thomas will rise. Wills then Thomas will be the first 2 OT taken. Wirfs will slide a lot further than people suspect.

Ruggs might slide a little. Jeudy will be long gone by pick 11.

Teams will burn through most of the WR’s early because they are the highest rated and valued position from mid first to beginning of 3rd. So we should definitely be one of those teams looking at WR in round 2 (unless someone like Baun is there for us).

[Russh29]

5 hours ago, PepPep said:

I agree. I did this back in Feb. I think if I was to re-do it it would look a little different now. Although, Thomas, Higgins, Weaver, and Biadasz would still be a dream scenario.  

Pittman at 48...yes please!

Also worth listening to the JetNation podcast with Paul Alexander to hear what he says about Biadasz. It seems there may be injury considerations.

[PepPep]

8 hours ago, Russh29 said:

Pittman at 48...yes please!

Also worth listening to the JetNation podcast with Paul Alexander to hear what he says about Biadasz. It seems there may be injury considerations.

I listened to it. I always do. And this one was great, I recommend to everyone to listen to this one as they break down the O-line prospects with a true expert (coach) Paul Alexander. He said he would take Biadasz in the 4th rd b/c the value is just too great but would consider him in the 3rd. Thats kinda where I had him, even in Feb. 

[PepPep]

13 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

I think with the virtual draft and a good chunk of gm’s who aren’t scouts that can run a draft solo, you’re going to see a lot of “high floor” players picked and less “upside” players.

Guys like Becton will slide and A.Thomas will rise. Wills then Thomas will be the first 2 OT taken. Wirfs will slide a lot further than people suspect.

Ruggs might slide a little. Jeudy will be long gone by pick 11.

Teams will burn through most of the WR’s early because they are the highest rated and valued position from mid first to beginning of 3rd. So we should definitely be one of those teams looking at WR in round 2 (unless someone like Baun is there for us).

I think you are right but I also believe we will see QB value go up and teams trade up for QBs. I think you will also see the classic draft surprise picks- a lot of times those are really high upside players going earlier than expected. Chaisson would be that guy in this case, IMO. I could def. see a team either taking him much higher than anticipated or moving up for him because their scouts just have a different view of how they could use him or what type of player he can become or maybe b/c the GM has a different philosophy and prefers to take really high upside prospects in Rd. 1. 

It will def. be a mixed bag. 

One thing is for sure. I expect one of the top 2 WRs Jeudy/Lamb to be there for the Jets at 11 and I expect J.Jones to be there at 11 (a top 5 and one of the safer LT prospects in the draft). Should be interesting what JD decides to do. Take a WR? Take Jones? Trade down? 

[section314]

20 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I think you are right but I also believe we will see QB value go up and teams trade up for QBs. I think you will also see the classic draft surprise picks- a lot of times those are really high upside players going earlier than expected. Chaisson would be that guy in this case, IMO. I could def. see a team either taking him much higher than anticipated or moving up for him because their scouts just have a different view of how they could use him or what type of player he can become or maybe b/c the GM has a different philosophy and prefers to take really high upside prospects in Rd. 1. 

It will def. be a mixed bag. 

One thing is for sure. I expect one of the top 2 WRs Jeudy/Lamb to be there for the Jets at 11 and I expect J.Jones to be there at 11 (a top 5 and one of the safer LT prospects in the draft). Should be interesting what JD decides to do. Take a WR? Take Jones? Trade down? 

I feel that Kinlaw is that guy this year.

[kdels62]

I’ll say it: Pittman over Higgins everyday.

[Adoni Beast]

39 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I think you are right but I also believe we will see QB value go up and teams trade up for QBs. 

You make a good point here. A Tua, Herbert, Love, one or two of them might fall causing some LT’s to drop because teams are trading up for them.

or one of them falls to 11, and we trade down/out of the 1st for a haul.

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, kdels62 said:

I’ll say it: Pittman over Higgins everyday.

I'd be thrilled with either of them if the Jets went OT at #11 and got one of these guys at 48.

[PepPep]

23 hours ago, kdels62 said:

I’ll say it: Pittman over Higgins everyday.

This is crazy talk. I think you are undervaluing the talent of Tee Higgins. Maybe because the pre-draft process hurt his stock a bit? If he can clean up his route running, get a bit stronger and become a more consistent player we are talking about a potential #1 star WR who can beat you deep, over the middle, in the Red Zone, almost every which way. 

I love Pittman and he is tougher and more consistent than Higgins but he will never be as fast or the same caliber of athlete. This is why, even with a bumpy road leading up to the draft Higgins is still expected to go late first round early second while Pittman is at best expected to go somewhere in Round 2. 

Higgins over Pittman any day.   

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

This is crazy talk. I think you are undervaluing the talent of Tee Higgins. Maybe because the pre-draft process hurt his stock a bit? If he can clean up his route running, get a bit stronger and become a more consistent player we are talking about a potential #1 star WR who can beat you deep, over the middle, in the Red Zone, almost every which way. 

I love Pittman and he is tougher and more consistent than Higgins but he will never be as fast or the same caliber of athlete. This is why, even with a bumpy road leading up to the draft Higgins is still expected to go late first round early second while Pittman is at best expected to go somewhere in Round 2. 

Higgins over Pittman any day.   

Nah. I get really anti-wingspan/catch point guys the closer I get to the draft and the more I watch these guys the more I like what other guys bring to the table over Higgins. Pittman has the size and catch radius of Higgins with less drops, more wiggle, better route running and half the QB talent throwing to him. Something about Higgins as me concerned and Pittman has the higher floor.

Edited note* Higgins running in the 4.5s at his pro day means he’s probably a 4.6 guy at the combine. Add in what would’ve been the worst 10-yard split at the combine and I’m seeing Corey Davis 2.0. 

[Claymation]

Worst case in the 2nd is if Pittman, Aiyuk and Higgins are gone. Actually I believe Aiyuk & Higgins will be drafted in the 1st round.