80's "I need fantasy assistance" thread

[RoadFan]

10 hours ago, Paradis said:

@Jetsfan80 @Paradis @Barry McCockinner @JiF @RoadFan @Lurker89 @Dcat @PS17 @#27TheDominator @chirorob @JagsFanJif 

 

Looking for thoughts... 

Pick 2: both Achane, Mostert at BAL, Etienne hosting CAR, and R. White hosting NOS

I'm probably just gonna leave Achane on the bench and play Mostert as my flex.

Pick 3:

• J Chase (not sure how healthy he is)
• Chark @ Jax
• Slayton hosting Rams
• D Robinson @ Giants.

Slim pickings, but all 3 of those names after Chase have been hot lately

Achane and White (Mostert out.  I’d be a bit nervous about Jeff Wilson but have to trust Achane in this spot)

Chase for sure if he plays, Demarcus and Slayton.

[#27TheDominator]

Way late to this.  I hope you didnt start Mostert.Isnt he out?

Up 92- 17 in one league and down 68-23 in the other.  Guess which league I have Breece and Lamb and which league my opponent does.  

[Lurker89]

That last game was.... stressful

me vs the clock as my opponent ad Jones and Chandler and I was up 24.

🏆

[#27TheDominator]

Can't win 'em all, but at least I won my main league.  Let the taunting commence!

[Lurker89]

On 1/1/2024 at 9:20 PM, #27TheDominator said:

Can't win 'em all, but at least I won my main league.  Let the taunting commence!

It is not easy closing out a championship congrats.

I took my main redraft championship 

Came in second in the other redraft league.

Won the Toilet Bowl  in one of my dynasty leagues winning the 1st overall pick and thus the rights to Marvin Harrison JR.

Got bounced the first round of the Toilet Bowl in my other dynasty league...bummer sitting at 1.05..... maybe Ebuka maybe Bowers idk.

[Lurker89]

Trying desperately to trade up to any of the picks ahead of me from 1.05 😂.

1.01 is out of the question, the owner is very happy to take MHJR. As I am in my other league. I won't be selling my 1.01 for anything so I understand.

1.05 is annoying though ... much rather take one of Nabers Odunze Bowers than the tier below of  Brian Thomas JR, Troy Franklin etc. The question is what am i willing to give up to move up 1 spot.   I think the max I'd do is 1.05 and Michael Wilson. 

Really only think 1 guy ahead of me could reach on one of the non top tier prospects ahead of me and dont want to gamble on this draft going chalk up to 1.05.

[Lurker89]

@Jetsfan80 @Barry McCockinner @PS17 

Any thoughts on the above or am I the only degenerate who doesn't believe in an offseason.😂😂😂

[Barry McCockinner]

31 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

@Jetsfan80 @Barry McCockinner @PS17 

Any thoughts on the above or am I the only degenerate who doesn't believe in an offseason.😂😂😂

I am retired.

[PS17]

On 1/20/2024 at 9:52 PM, Lurker89 said:

Trying desperately to trade up to any of the picks ahead of me from 1.05 😂.

1.01 is out of the question, the owner is very happy to take MHJR. As I am in my other league. I won't be selling my 1.01 for anything so I understand.

1.05 is annoying though ... much rather take one of Nabers Odunze Bowers than the tier below of  Brian Thomas JR, Troy Franklin etc. The question is what am i willing to give up to move up 1 spot.   I think the max I'd do is 1.05 and Michael Wilson. 

Really only think 1 guy ahead of me could reach on one of the non top tier prospects ahead of me and dont want to gamble on this draft going chalk up to 1.05.

Unfortunately there’s a massive tier drop after 1.04 in 1QB leagues. If I had that pick I’d need a high 2nd or late 1st to move back and then it still wouldn’t be a no brainer. Michael Wilson wouldn’t move the needle for me. 

[Lurker89]

On 1/29/2024 at 11:12 PM, PS17 said:

Unfortunately there’s a massive tier drop after 1.04 in 1QB leagues. If I had that pick I’d need a high 2nd or late 1st to move back and then it still wouldn’t be a no brainer. Michael Wilson wouldn’t move the needle for me. 

100% agree on the massive drop after 1.04 hence my strong desire to move up even 1 spot.

 

I pulled it off got the 1.04 for 1.05, Michael Wilson and Donovan Wilson (IDP league)

[Lurker89]

Guys may hate this next move I'm trying to make but for roster construction purposes it makes sense.

Send Romeo Doubs, Chig Okonkwo, Deshaun Watson

Recieve Jakobi Meyers, Dameon Pierce, Austin Ekeler.

 

QB Room TLaw, Love, Watson,Geno

RB Room Swift, Najee, Foreman, Gibson. Penny, Rodriguez 

WR Room Garrett Wilson, Olave, Nico, Godwin, JSN, Dotson, Jamo, Doubs, Gallup, 2.06 likely WR.

TE Room Pitts, 1.04 Bowers, Freiermuth, Chig

Move good pieces I dont need to get some RB depth and the ever reliable but unsexy Meyers.

Ekelers value is dead and he's about to turn 30 maybe I get a year of useful play maybe not... Pierce is a good 24 year old stash RB even after his dismal year.

[PS17]

Would love to get your thoughts on this @Lurker89 (Beware it’s a bit of a ramble)

14 team 1QB .5 PPR league

Thinking of flipping JSN+ for Aiyuk. Initially I asked the Aiyuk owner if he was interested in a straight swap. He said he’d need a little extra, rightfully so.

So he proposed my JSN and 1.07 for Aiyuk and 1.13. I said I’d hold off for now but the more I think of it, I like the structure of the deal. As we already mentioned there’s a big tier drop after pick 3/4 in 1QB leagues this year.

I liked JSN as a prospect but felt pretty underwhelmed by his first year. I know he didn’t have an ideal situation behind Metcalf and Lockett with a regressing Geno, but I would have liked to see one or two “pop” games and I felt he had zero. Some big catches here and there but not one game where he took over.

I’m sure JSN will have an increase in production this year but I think Aiyuk could be on the verge of a career explosion. He just had the quietest 1300 yard season ever and he’s locked in as Purdy’s number one target (and Purdy throws an excellent deep ball, Aiyuk’s strength). All the analytics metrics point to Aiyuk as elite. 

Just feel like this is a good move to mitigate risk; sliding back to 1.13 from 1.07 is a small price to pay on top of JSN in a deep WR class. Another idea I had is trade 1.07 and a projected high 2025 2nd for Aiyuk but I’m not sure if my trade partner would go for that. 

What do you think? 

[Lurker89]

12 hours ago, PS17 said:

Would love to get your thoughts on this @Lurker89 (Beware it’s a bit of a ramble)

14 team 1QB .5 PPR league

Thinking of flipping JSN+ for Aiyuk. Initially I asked the Aiyuk owner if he was interested in a straight swap. He said he’d need a little extra, rightfully so.

So he proposed my JSN and 1.07 for Aiyuk and 1.13. I said I’d hold off for now but the more I think of it, I like the structure of the deal. As we already mentioned there’s a big tier drop after pick 3/4 in 1QB leagues this year.

I liked JSN as a prospect but felt pretty underwhelmed by his first year. I know he didn’t have an ideal situation behind Metcalf and Lockett with a regressing Geno, but I would have liked to see one or two “pop” games and I felt he had zero. Some big catches here and there but not one game where he took over.

I’m sure JSN will have an increase in production this year but I think Aiyuk could be on the verge of a career explosion. He just had the quietest 1300 yard season ever and he’s locked in as Purdy’s number one target (and Purdy throws an excellent deep ball, Aiyuk’s strength). All the analytics metrics point to Aiyuk as elite. 

Just feel like this is a good move to mitigate risk; sliding back to 1.13 from 1.07 is a small price to pay on top of JSN in a deep WR class. Another idea I had is trade 1.07 and a projected high 2025 2nd for Aiyuk but I’m not sure if my trade partner would go for that. 

What do you think? 

I'll start with I don't hate it.

From 1.07 to 1.13 is a significant drop but somewhat negligible this class considering  that WR is deep and with any luck you are going to get an X worthy there 🤞. I might (do) rather X to the Bryan Thomas's and Troy Franklins of the world so all in all either way your going to get a good piece there. Inlike Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson  as well. 

I mean count out 13 prospects and see if your happy with your last ranked 13th player.

 

For me:

 

1 MHJR

2 Nabers

3 Odunze 

4 Bowers

5 Bryan Thomas jr

6 Troy Franklin 

7 X Worthy 

8 AD Mitchell 

9 Jonathan Brooks 

10 Trey Benson 

11 Caleb Williams 

12 Drake Maye

13 Ladd McConkey

14 Roman Wilson 

15 J. Sanders 

 The real meat of the argument lies between  Aiyuk and JSN.  I am a biased JSN owner. 

I think JSN could be a top 20 wr for the next 8 years with some good spike years in there.

I like Aiyuk the argument for him is the argument against him. He has been hyper efficient is it sustainable... if given more targets will he go from top 12-14 to top 5-8 for the next 4 years or so. Personally i think hes legit no one can remain that efficient  but he could be a good wr1 for some years

[#27TheDominator]

18 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

I'll start with I don't hate it.

From 1.07 to 1.13 is a significant drop but somewhat negligible this class considering  that WR is deep and with any luck you are going to get an X worthy there 🤞. I might (do) rather X to the Bryan Thomas's and Troy Franklins of the world so all in all either way your going to get a good piece there. Inlike Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson  as well. 

I mean count out 13 prospects and see if your happy with your last ranked 13th player.

 

For me:

 

1 MHJR

2 Nabers

3 Odunze 

4 Bowers

5 Bryan Thomas jr

6 Troy Franklin 

7 X Worthy 

8 AD Mitchell 

9 Jonathan Brooks 

10 Trey Benson 

11 Caleb Williams 

12 Drake Maye

13 Ladd McConkey

14 Roman Wilson 

15 J. Sanders 

 The real meat of the argument lies between  Aiyuk and JSN.  I am a biased JSN owner. 

I think JSN could be a top 20 wr for the next 8 years with some good spike years in there.

I like Aiyuk the argument for him is the argument against him. He has been hyper efficient is it sustainable... if given more targets will he go from top 12-14 to top 5-8 for the next 4 years or so. Personally i think hes legit no one can remain that efficient  but he could be a good wr1 for some years

You guys are already that spun up about the draft?  I get MHJ, but for most of these guys isn't the team that drafts them, their QB situation and volume of passing/running almost as important as the prospect? 

[Lurker89]

48 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

You guys are already that spun up about the draft?  I get MHJ, but for most of these guys isn't the team that drafts them, their QB situation and volume of passing/running almost as important as the prospect? 

I stay spun up about rookie drafts... when this ones done I'll be getting spun up about the 25 class.

Yes for each player NFL Draft Capital and situation matter but overall a philosophy for me is talent over situation. Talent doesn't change, situation can change quickly. The combine and draft will affect movement throughout tiers for me but generally wont affect whose in what tier unless something drastic happens (see: 2022: Isaiah Spiller 2023: Sean Tucker, Kayshon Boutte)

For this draft in particular there are 3 elite profiles (MHJR, Nabers, Bowers) and one near elite profile (Odunze) after that we have some very good profiles going into the early second.

[PS17]

5 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

You guys are already that spun up about the draft?  I get MHJ, but for most of these guys isn't the team that drafts them, their QB situation and volume of passing/running almost as important as the prospect? 

This is a very good draft at the top for fantasy. Seven potential blue chip prospects in Superflex and four in 1QB. Tier two and three remain to be seen but they’re deep with talent too especially at WR. Situations and draft capital will shake out, we’ll see, but early on this class looks great. 
 

And yeah, dynasty sickos get spun up about draft classes two years in advance; forget three months before the draft. 

[#27TheDominator]

Yes.  I can see it.  I mean I actually enjoy it which is why I am here.  I guess I look at it from a single year perspective for fantasy.  I guess looking at it from a team building perspective in keeper leagues draft the player and let the situation come around to the talent.  Drafting for situation is just as likely to stick you with a dud, like drafting guys for a Kingsbury's offense and then having him dumped. for year 2.

[#27TheDominator]

I would add that my surprise is not the interest or rating prospects way out from the draft.  It was more the idea that would be able to decide how you feel about selection 13 as opposed to 12.  I understand you can make an educated guess, but you guys have it down to straight precision like you were actually going to be in charge of how the player was used.  I guess that goes to drafting the prospect, not the situation.

[Lurker89]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I would add that my surprise is not the interest or rating prospects way out from the draft.  It was more the idea that would be able to decide how you feel about selection 13 as opposed to 12.  I understand you can make an educated guess, but you guys have it down to straight precision like you were actually going to be in charge of how the player was used.  I guess that goes to drafting the prospect, not the situation.

Each year I'm in 4 leagues.

2 are dynasty leagues 

2 are redraft 

The dynasty league that has gone the longest has been going since 2015.

That league is 42 keepers 12 man 1QB  IDP with generally barren Waivers. Make cuts each year for incoming rookie picks.

I'm in it for the long haul with these prospects and enjoy the amatuer scouting aspect.

A lot ot metrics go into who and how to draft.  WR can be much more metrics based than RB. For  RB situation can be much weightier. TE and QB can both entirely be crapshoots so I generally shoot for upside there.

I generally build around WR more than anything based on career longevity,  amount of starting positions I can fill with them, and overall PPG impact.

Draft QBs and TES opportunisticly and buy good RBs at a discount or draft opportunisticly.

Others have different philosophies around RB, I just find their lack of shelf stability annoying.

 

WR Metrics I feel are the keys to success in the NFL 

1)Draft Capital

2) College Production 

3) College Target Share

4) Breakout age

4) Dominator Rating 

6) 40 Time

7) BMI

8 ) Declare Year

For both RBs and WRs I want to see at least 2 1000+ all purpose yard seasons and a general upward trend in production.

 

[Lurker89]

As far as draft cap goes at this point in the game we know who will likely be a top 10 pick who will likely be a first round pick, a 2nd round pick especially for the top tier WRs and QBs and then it gets muddier from there.

For that reason I'm fairly confident in my top 12 or so rookie rankings. 

We can also look at the elite prospects production profiles and know there is no reason anyone in a skill position should be drafted ahead of them.

MHJR:

Nabers:

Odunze:

Bowers:

(TE stats are judged quite differently, junior season on pace for 1070 yards w/o injury)

 

The next up profiles are 

Bryan Thomas:

Troy Franklin:

[Lurker89]

As far as an intimate knowledge of rookies helping me in redraft ....the data has pointed to rookies being highly efficient at the end of the year when some vets production is trailing off.

 

Drafting Addison and Rashee Rice late and picking up Puka and Laporta off waivers week one helped me win my main redraft league this year🏆.

In my other redraft league scooping CJ Stroud and Laporta (add in old man Mostert)on top of generally solid drafting led to a regular season 1st place finish and loss in the Championship game 🥈.

It's all about how we're using the info i guess...

[Lurker89]

@Jetsfan80 @PS17 @#27TheDominator @Barry McCockinner

been dead in here ... but then again im a complete dynasty degenerate....

I traded away my last share of Puka....  sad but had to be done 

I Sent Puka, Montgomery, 2.06

Recieved Bijan, Josh Downs, 3.09

12 man 1QB .5ppr

Should now be the young bully on the block contending for a long time.

QB Herbert, Russell Wilson, DJ

RB Bijan, Javonte, Miles Sanders Hunt, Charbs

WR AJ Brown, SunGod, Pittman, Tee Higgins, JSN, 1.01(MHJR), Downs, Mingo

TE Schultz, Waller, Otton, Dulcich

 

[Barry McCockinner]

3 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

@Jetsfan80 @PS17 @#27TheDominator @Barry McCockinner

been dead in here ... but then again im a complete dynasty degenerate....

I traded away my last share of Puka....  sad but had to be done 

I Sent Puka, Montgomery, 2.06

Recieved Bijan, Josh Downs, 3.09

12 man 1QB .5ppr

Should now be the young bully on the block contending for a long time.

QB Herbert, Russell Wilson, DJ

RB Bijan, Javonte, Miles Sanders Hunt, Charbs

WR AJ Brown, SunGod, Pittman, Tee Higgins, JSN, 1.01(MHJR), Downs, Mingo

TE Schultz, Waller, Otton, Dulcich

 

I am retired.

[Lurker89]

Just posted this in the Draft forum but thought you nerds might like the metrics info:

 

"I really like Nabers feel like he's being underbilled here quite a bit. That being said I love the top 3 in this class more any recent class prior to them being in the NFL. Jefferson and Lamb in 2020 will be tough to beat on actual results though.

 

The underlying metrics love Nabers. ..

 

YPRR VS MAN: 2.82

 

YPRR VS ZONE: 3.13

 

20% Dominator Rating 

 

26% Target Share in 2023

 

84% catch rate in 2023

 

17.6 Yards per reception in 2023

 

89 catches on 106 targets for 1569 yards on the year.

 

2nd 1000+ yard season in a row.

 

He has gotten progressively better every year "

 

Top 3 WR prospects this year are amazing:

 

[Jetsfan80]

44 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Just posted this in the Draft forum but thought you nerds might like the metrics info:

 

"I really like Nabers feel like he's being underbilled here quite a bit. That being said I love the top 3 in this class more any recent class prior to them being in the NFL. Jefferson and Lamb in 2020 will be tough to beat on actual results though.

 

The underlying metrics love Nabers. ..

 

YPRR VS MAN: 2.82

 

YPRR VS ZONE: 3.13

 

20% Dominator Rating 

 

26% Target Share in 2023

 

84% catch rate in 2023

 

17.6 Yards per reception in 2023

 

89 catches on 106 targets for 1569 yards on the year.

 

2nd 1000+ yard season in a row.

 

He has gotten progressively better every year "

 

Top 3 WR prospects this year are amazing:

 

And we probably won’t get any of them because we had to learn to win again.

[Lurker89]

57 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And we probably won’t get any of them because we had to learn to win again.

Its better that way... let them fly free far away from this hell... 

I may like it here but i dont wish this hell on them😂.

 

Any thoughts on that Bijan- Puka trade.

[Jetsfan80]

9 hours ago, Lurker89 said:

Its better that way... let them fly free far away from this hell... 

I may like it here but i dont wish this hell on them😂.

 

Any thoughts on that Bijan- Puka trade.

Since I haven’t done a dynasty league yet (and would be bad at it), and also get everything wrong, I will spare you my take on this.

Unless of course doing the opposite of what I think is your strategy, in which case my thinking is this and you can feel free to go the other direction:  it’s usually risky sending away a young high end WR (safer) for a young high end RB (riskier), but with the stench of Arthur Smith gone in ATL, now is the time to pounce on all the underperforming young Falcons.  I’d be going hard after Pitts as well right now.  

[Dcat]

On 2/7/2024 at 1:37 AM, PS17 said:

 

So he proposed my JSN and 1.07 for Aiyuk and 1.13. I said I’d hold off for now but the more I think of it, I like the structure of the deal. As we already mentioned there’s a big tier drop after pick 3/4 in 1QB leagues this year.

What do you think? 

Hopefully you pulled the trigger on this one.  If not, then go get it.

[PS17]

On 2/20/2024 at 9:39 AM, Dcat said:

Hopefully you pulled the trigger on this one.  If not, then go get it.

It didn’t happen. My trade partner wants an overpay and the offer was never official. 

[nj meadowlands]

Anyone here play fantasy baseball?  I am looking for thoughts on the best draft kits / resources.  Would pay for a subscription if the price was reasonable.

[Lurker89]

On 2/20/2024 at 7:07 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

Since I haven’t done a dynasty league yet (and would be bad at it), and also get everything wrong, I will spare you my take on this.

Unless of course doing the opposite of what I think is your strategy, in which case my thinking is this and you can feel free to go the other direction:  it’s usually risky sending away a young high end WR (safer) for a young high end RB (riskier), but with the stench of Arthur Smith gone in ATL, now is the time to pounce on all the underperforming young Falcons.  I’d be going hard after Pitts as well right now.  

Team construction play... I'm stacked at WR needed to get a championship caliber RB.

 

There is a glut of high end recievers compared to 3-4 true horse RBs (Bijan, Breece, CMC, JT)

Of those 4 you have 2 who are safe 4 year investments (Breece and Bijan)

My WR room is about to be Amon Ra, AJ Brown, MHJR, Pittman, Tee, JSN, Downs, (also Mingo🤢) ..... stacked and young .. needed to get elite at RB ... added the youngest workhorse I could. Now just need to Win.

 

[PS17]

13 hours ago, Lurker89 said:

Team construction play... I'm stacked at WR needed to get a championship caliber RB.

 

There is a glut of high end recievers compared to 3-4 true horse RBs (Bijan, Breece, CMC, JT)

Of those 4 you have 2 who are safe 4 year investments (Breece and Bijan)

My WR room is about to be Amon Ra, AJ Brown, MHJR, Pittman, Tee, JSN, Downs, (also Mingo🤢) ..... stacked and young .. needed to get elite at RB ... added the youngest workhorse I could. Now just need to Win.

 

ok rosterbate 

[Lurker89]

17 hours ago, PS17 said:

ok rosterbate 

Indeed.... I have to have one I can do that with 😂

I still have to look at Mingos  *** sitting there as the hairy mole on this roster.

My other 10 year old dynasty team is in year 4 of a planned 2-3 year rebuild .... and looking aggressively middle of the pack 🙃

[PS17]

Just made my first move of the year. Sold Ekeler for a projected late 2025 2nd. 

I’m deep at RB and I think there’s a decent chance Ekeler is cooked. His contract was paltry so clearly the league views him as cooked. Happy to cash out and get the liquid value of a 2nd.

@Lurker89

[Lurker89]

49 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Just made my first move of the year. Sold Ekeler for a projected late 2025 2nd. 

I’m deep at RB and I think there’s a decent chance Ekeler is cooked. His contract was paltry so clearly the league views him as cooked. Happy to cash out and get the liquid value of a 2nd.

@Lurker89

Great move ...I wouldn't have given you that for an about to be 29 year old RB on the wrong side of a timeshare in a new system and questionable offense.