Flawed Jets logic that needs to be corrected this offseason

[Sonny Werblin]

7 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

That Robert Saleh is the right coach for us to win.

meh.... would the right coach cut Michael Carter instead of Dalvin Cook? would the right coach refuse to adapt his D to have Sauce follow the other team's #1 WR after every sensible OC has made the decision to take advantage of the Jet's refusal to have their CBs "travel". would the right HC allow a bum like Keith Carter be his O line coach and then not fire him during the season when the lack of development and execution on the O line is the most glaring weakness on the team? would the right coach not be involved at all on the O side of the ball as the inability of the O to generate any actual points or possession time became the overriding reason for the team's failure to be competitive? ... there's more, but my fingers are tired and my brain is sad. Robert Saleh is not a very good head coach, and it ain't even close.

[Augustiniak]

22 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

In the same draft, Mike Shanahan (future HOF) drafted a QB in the 1st round and then another in the 4th (who turned out to have a pretty damn good career).

KEEP INVESTING IN THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION IN ALL OF SPORTS! Then invest some more !

Rg3 and cousins.  Same draft.  

[Adoni Beast]

22 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

meh.... would the right coach cut Michael Carter instead of Dalvin Cook? would the right coach refuse to adapt his D to have Sauce follow the other team's #1 WR after every sensible OC has made the decision to take advantage of the Jet's refusal to have their CBs "travel". would the right HC allow a bum like Keith Carter be his O line coach and then not fire him during the season when the lack of development and execution on the O line is the most glaring weakness on the team? would the right coach not be involved at all on the O side of the ball as the inability of the O to generate any actual points or possession time became the overriding reason for the team's failure to be competitive? ... there's more, but my fingers are tired and my brain is sad. Robert Saleh is not a very good head coach, and it ain't even close.

Yes that was what my point was lol. The OP asked what flawed logic needs to be corrected.

It is flawed logic that the NYJ think Robert Saleh is the right coach to win with.

[Adoni Beast]

10 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Rg3 and cousins.  Same draft.  

Yes, incredibly smart and if Shanahan never was forced out of Washington he would have pivoted to Cousins (Washington had a decent team to build off of) and who knows how that team would have turned out.

They probably would have had a succession plan to Kyle, and history would look completely different. This is why hiring and retaining the right people goes beyond wins and losses.
 

Look at Patriots, Jets, and Dallas pre-Parcells and post-Parcells. He left both teams with roster, some coaches and scouts who knew what they were doing. 

[bonkertons]

I agree with most but they clearly wanted Rodgers AND this dream of Zach taking over eventually, which is a big reason why we fell on our face this year.  I don't think they thought they could drop Zach to 3rd QB/healthy scratch and still salvage his future here.  I honestly get it though, considering how much they invested into this dude.  They rolled the dice on Rodgers staying healthy, it didn't work out.  Not that a Gardner Minshew would have made much of a difference for us in the end, but it's possible we could have at least been good enough to be in the playoff picture right now, which would make Rodgers' return a different story.

 

Also I don't agree with this "window is now so don't draft who you want, draft who will be good right away".  Either draft the guy you want, or trade the pick for a guy who can come in and put us over the top.  I have no problem with the McDonald pick, even if they didn't expect much this year going in.

 

But yeah, JD has no excuse not to add at least a high end OT and a high end WR this offseason...MINIMUM.  One could and should be addressed in the 1st round.  Especially when you look at the strength of this draft and where we're picking.  The other will have to be through the free agent/trade market.  Either way, it's gotta happen.  That, and he needs a proven backup QB.  Zach will most likely be cut or dealt, I'd imagine.  Can't run it back again with him.  Just can't happen.

 

One other underrated or less talked about need in the offseason is a big boy DT to help with our run game.  It's really been a problem this year.  Not sure how much of that is missing Rankins, and how much of that is Mosley falling off.  Either way, we need to upgrade there as well, but the priority is obviously on the offensive side of the ball.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

12 hours ago, Bugg said:

They're gonna lose Huff for nothing. Teams go nuts trying to find pass rushers. They have a great one under their noses and made a mess of it. 

I did some research a few weeks back and there were a few edge rushers like Frank Clark, Clowney, Dee Ford, and the Edge from the Jags who were tagged and traded for 2nd round picks.  Clark netted the biggest return which was more than current year 2nd while a couple brought back a 2nd in the following year.

I think a late 2nd this year  is about right for Huff, but could fall to a third since it’s clear the Jets cannot afford the franchise tag at $20M plus per yr.  

[varjet]

• IMHO, the AR8 to Zach plan was ALL WOODY.  Woody gets attached to his first round draft picks.  Look at the drama and history behind Leonard Williams, SR, Mo, Darnold, etc.  Its all the same.  He can't cut bait.  He clings.   He does not want to pay the second contract, but we spend too much time and effort trying to salvage players who are not fits.  We just need to move on.  
• Huff is getting a Transition Tag.  From the Jets perspective, they overpay mediocre players all the time.  Huff is better, even with his limited playing time, than the other overpaid players.  If JD gets burned and has to keep Huff, it just forces a decision on Mosley, Tomlinson, etc.  

[football guy]

10 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The catch is tagging him is some $22-23MM for the year. I don’t think any team is matching that, let alone offering up a 2nd rounder or higher for the privilege. The tag amount is used as a ballpark baseline annual amount at a minimum, and it’s doubtful Huff is in or near that pay tier yet.

He got a 2nd rounder RFA tender just last season and no one was interested.

He’d have to get at least two more sacks in the last two games to even imagine this situation, and even then I still don’t see it happening.

His ceiling smells like $15MM/yr to me. Maybe a hair more max depending on the new cap ceiling coming up. Probably he gets less, though. In any case it’s not near all pro money like the franchise tag.

If the Jets tag him, he’s theirs and will be just a situational edge rusher for a crazy amount, for just one more season, after which he’ll be a UFA again in ‘25. 

If a team trades for him there's no need to "match" the franchise tag number, just need to agree to a new contract. As far as RFA statuses, its really not something teams dive into anymore because they're essentially negotiating for the team that has the players rights, so I'm looking past that. I also think the natural progression he's shown from last year to this year has been massive, which will make him more valuable. He went from being a situational rusher only to a player who is steady in the rotation without being a liability against the run. We rotate all of our guys, so someone is going to see him as a player that can play a larger role. 

The best recent comparisons: in 2020 the Jaguars franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue and traded him for a 2021 second-round pick and a 2022 fifth-round pick. The tag was for 1 year, $17.79 million, but after the trade he signed a restructured 1 year, $12 million contract. This year, Montez Sweat had 6.5 sacks when he got traded, had never reached double-digit sacks in a season, and is 27 years old. Bears traded a high 2nd round pick for him and gave him a 4-year, $98 million deal with $72 million guaranteed.

Having all been said, I do admit Huff is an interesting case because he doesn't have the amount of sustained success as other pass rushers that have been traded in recent years, but teams do see that he's getting less opportunities in a rotation-heavy defense. He is outstanding in all the pass rush metrics teams value these days, and the tape is there to back up the analytics. Now lets say the Jets can't find a worthy trade, my argument would be that he is worth keeping. He's not a situational edge rusher anymore- he plays a pivotal role in the rotation and our best pass rusher. With the way teams are deferring money, they can easily restructure the contract and tack on void years to make the cap hit more digestible. 

 

Bottom line: they cannot let Huff walk for nothing. Either you tag him/extend him, or you trade him. Getting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2025 ain't doing it

 

[Origen]

Where did Zonovan end up?  I thought we had a fine, albeit young RB group without Cook and the money was a waste, BUT, we were going for the SB with Rodgers so I could see the idea of bringing him in.  BUT, one look and they should have offered him a $5 cab ride home.

[ChewyandtheJets]

Zach Wilson:  $9 million

Duane Brown:  $10 million

Allen Lazard: $11 million

Dalvin Cook:  $7 million

Aaron Rodgers:  $25 million

AVT:  $7 million

Billy Turner & Randall Cobb:  Approx $4 million

About $75 million on offense for players that have literally contributed close to zero to winning football games in 2023.  Is it any surprise we are where we are as a team.  Injuries aside terrible use of our resources this year.  Need significant change if we have nay hope of building an offensive line and getting this turned around.  Not at all optimistic we have the "braintrust" to even come close to pulling this off.  

    

[Sperm Edwards]

10 hours ago, football guy said:

If a team trades for him there's no need to "match" the franchise tag number, just need to agree to a new contract. As far as RFA statuses, its really not something teams dive into anymore because they're essentially negotiating for the team that has the players rights, so I'm looking past that. I also think the natural progression he's shown from last year to this year has been massive, which will make him more valuable. He went from being a situational rusher only to a player who is steady in the rotation without being a liability against the run. We rotate all of our guys, so someone is going to see him as a player that can play a larger role. 

The best recent comparisons: in 2020 the Jaguars franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue and traded him for a 2021 second-round pick and a 2022 fifth-round pick. The tag was for 1 year, $17.79 million, but after the trade he signed a restructured 1 year, $12 million contract. This year, Montez Sweat had 6.5 sacks when he got traded, had never reached double-digit sacks in a season, and is 27 years old. Bears traded a high 2nd round pick for him and gave him a 4-year, $98 million deal with $72 million guaranteed.

Having all been said, I do admit Huff is an interesting case because he doesn't have the amount of sustained success as other pass rushers that have been traded in recent years, but teams do see that he's getting less opportunities in a rotation-heavy defense. He is outstanding in all the pass rush metrics teams value these days, and the tape is there to back up the analytics. Now lets say the Jets can't find a worthy trade, my argument would be that he is worth keeping. He's not a situational edge rusher anymore- he plays a pivotal role in the rotation and our best pass rusher. With the way teams are deferring money, they can easily restructure the contract and tack on void years to make the cap hit more digestible. 

 

Bottom line: they cannot let Huff walk for nothing. Either you tag him/extend him, or you trade him. Getting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2025 ain't doing it

 

Those players were starters. Huff isn’t a starter. He gets sacks but that’s all they ask him to do & he does nothing else.

If they tag him they may as well extend him themselves and the tbh just pick one of McDonald or JJII to trade. Too much investment in the position otherwise.

The stupidity was in letting it get this far. Worse still is the plan was to not just have this trio but Carl Lawson starting as well. Plus JFM. Plus they still keep playing now-290-lb Clemons at end. Plus… ah, what’s the point lol.

[RSJ]

This defense only plays well when they are down two scores


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Rich Thornburgh]

Zach and the owner/GM’s loyalty to Zach ruined a third straight season for us

[Rich Thornburgh]

19 hours ago, varjet said:

• IMHO, the AR8 to Zach plan was ALL WOODY.  Woody gets attached to his first round draft picks.  Look at the drama and history behind Leonard Williams, SR, Mo, Darnold, etc.  Its all the same.  He can't cut bait.  He clings.   He does not want to pay the second contract, but we spend too much time and effort trying to salvage players who are not fits.  We just need to move on.  
• Huff is getting a Transition Tag.  From the Jets perspective, they overpay mediocre players all the time.  Huff is better, even with his limited playing time, than the other overpaid players.  If JD gets burned and has to keep Huff, it just forces a decision on Mosley, Tomlinson, etc.  

3 years of my life as a jets fan I will never get back.  The idiot owner believing in Zach Wilson so much he never signed another backup qb for Rodgers and I was forced to watch another season of Zach stinkage followed by Tim Boyle and Trevor Stinkage