Feels like this is the death grip top-nine right now

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, derp said:

Could be, but I’m less arguing for QB and more arguing against what could very well be a fourth option on that offense at eight overall. Just a questionable allocation of resources. Belichick’s also been pretty awful at drafting offensive skill players early.

True, but Belichick has also dumped a ton of resources into the TE spot on the Pats. Hunter Henry, Devin Asiasi, Mike Gesicki, obviously Gronk and Hernandez. 

[derp]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

True, but Belichick has also dumped a ton of resources into the TE spot on the Pats. Hunter Henry, Devin Asiasi, Mike Gesicki, obviously Gronk and Hernandez. 

You’re talking $12.5M/year, late third round pick, one year $4.5M, second round pick, fourth round pick. Not at that eighth overall level in terms of investment. And the recent FA investment was when they had nothing at skill positions - not Robinson/London/Pitts.

[T0mShane]

16 minutes ago, derp said:

You’re talking $12.5M/year, late third round pick, one year $4.5M, second round pick, fourth round pick. Not at that eighth overall level in terms of investment. And the recent FA investment was when they had nothing at skill positions - not Robinson/London/Pitts.

Yeah, I mean we’ll see. Jeremiah gave them Dallas Turner at 8 just now. It’s January and a lot will change, obviously

[Lupz27]

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I think the Bears could decide to draft Maye over Williams organically, and Washington would/should be happy with either guy, especially if they land the wunderkind OC. I don’t think it benefits the Commanders at all to come up to 1, and the Bears aren’t going to want to fall lower than 2 unless they decide to stick with Fields. 
 

 

I think the Chargers will definitely try to move off Mike Williams, but they’d probably be hoping Quentin Johnston could develop into that role. Presuming they keep Allen, I don’t think they’d look at the draft landscape and see that there are more receivers available in Rd 2 than they’d find high level OTs, so they’d be value shopping. Harbaugh will build through the trenches regardless, imo. 

Bears trade Fields and draft Daniels 1 overall is my prediction.

[Lupz27]

36 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

True, but Belichick has also dumped a ton of resources into the TE spot on the Pats. Hunter Henry, Devin Asiasi, Mike Gesicki, obviously Gronk and Hernandez. 

 I’d be shocked if he used a 1st on a TE.

He definitely will draft one though.

[Adoni Beast]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Belichick is also a 72 year old defensive head coach and likely would want no part of a rookie QB, especially given how his Mac Jones experience turned out. I’d venture to guess he takes a swing at Cousins or maybe circles back to Garoppolo. 

He won’t be drafting a QB after he signs Kirk Cousins

[T0mShane]

On 1/18/2024 at 11:04 PM, T0mShane said:

3. Kraft is going to give Jerod Mayo tons of rope to reset the roster, which allows them to take a swing on Daniels. Caveat: heard a report from The Athletic’s Pats beat writer saying that Belichick wanted to trade Mac Jones this past offseason, but Kraft wouldn’t let him, so it’s not impossible that Kraft pushes Mayo to draft Marvin Harrison and give Jones another look with a new OC

😬

[doitny]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

😬

we hear the same crap about Zach for 3 years now. these guys will never say anything bad about a player, even after hes gone.

[T0mShane]

10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

😬

Kraft is going to steer this thing straight into the earth.

 

[JustInFudge]

On 1/19/2024 at 8:05 AM, Lupz27 said:

Brock Bowers is the fools gold in the first just like Gholston was

[section314]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Kraft is going to steer this thing straight into the earth.

 

Seems like Macc Jones is basically a far less talented Zach Wilson.

[T0mShane]

Apropos of nothing, the Jets pick in the mock drafts of the big remaining three:

Kiper: Fashanu

Brugler: Fashanu

Jeremiah: Fuaga

[derp]

31 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Apropos of nothing, the Jets pick in the mock drafts of the big remaining three:

Kiper: Fashanu

Brugler: Fashanu

Jeremiah: Fuaga

Actual pick: Laiatu Latu. Gotta secure your fifth string edge rusher.

[LionelRichie]

On 1/22/2024 at 6:24 PM, T0mShane said:

Apropos of nothing, the Jets pick in the mock drafts of the big remaining three:

Kiper: Fashanu

Brugler: Fashanu

Jeremiah: Fuaga

It burns my ass that every  team in the league seems to find durable starters on the OL outside of rds 1 & 2 and we would blow the 10 pick on a guard.   We need a legit wr opposite GW and we need JD to do his freaking job and find some OL with the remaining picks, trades, and FA.  

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, LionelRichie said:

It burns my ass that every  team in the league seems to find durable starters on the OL outside of rds 1 & 2 and we would blow the 10 pick on a guard.   We need a legit wr opposite GW and we need JD to do his freaking job and find some OL with the remaining picks, trades, and FA.  

Becton turning out to be a slob has set this administration back quite a bit. 

[derp]

22 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Becton turning out to be a slob has set this administration back quite a bit. 

The philosophy of building OL depth primarily via replacement level veterans has not worked out too well either. Endless cycle of not having any upside on the bench and needing to find a new starter via free agency or a high draft pick once somebody leaves.

Also, there have been decent players here. Morgan Moses has been great in Baltimore. George Fant hasn’t been great, but he’s been solid. Either of those guys would’ve provided some much needed stability, both and we probably wouldn’t do all this hand wringing about tackle.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, derp said:

The philosophy of building OL depth primarily via replacement level veterans has not worked out too well either. Endless cycle of not having any upside on the bench and needing to find a new starter via free agency or a high draft pick once somebody leaves.

Also, there have been decent players here. Morgan Moses has been great in Baltimore. George Fant hasn’t been great, but he’s been solid. Either of those guys would’ve provided some much needed stability, both and we probably wouldn’t do all this hand wringing about tackle.

Absolutely, but if Douglas picks Wirfs over Becton or Becton cared about his job and performed at a Donovan Smith level, the Jets are going into 24 with three OL spots in pretty good shape and those veteran fill-in guys aren’t asked to do more than they’re capable of. Becton caused a cascade of disaster that begat giving Duane Brown $22 million, etc. I look at the luxury the Niners have in building an OL around Trent Williams, the Ravens have with Stanley, the Texans with Tunsil, etc and it makes you aware of what a deficit you’re in if you don’t have a plus player there. 

[derp]

48 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Absolutely, but if Douglas picks Wirfs over Becton or Becton cared about his job and performed at a Donovan Smith level, the Jets are going into 24 with three OL spots in pretty good shape and those veteran fill-in guys aren’t asked to do more than they’re capable of. Becton caused a cascade of disaster that begat giving Duane Brown $22 million, etc. I look at the luxury the Niners have in building an OL around Trent Williams, the Ravens have with Stanley, the Texans with Tunsil, etc and it makes you aware of what a deficit you’re in if you don’t have a plus player there. 

Don’t get me wrong, the Becton pick was bad. Made worse by the fact that he brought in Fant because of positional versatility, then it turned out Fant was better on the left side, and then he let Fant go. I also wonder if the early returns on the Becton pick made him overconfident for the 2021 draft, but I digress.

To me the inability to come up with in house answers at positions that should be pretty easy to fill - line guard and RT - is more damning than missing on a first round pick. Yeah it’d be three of five in pretty good shape if Becton was solid - but what’s the excuse for not having answers at the other two? He’s had four drafts and free agency periods.

Put differently, I can think of seven cases out of twenty that Joe Douglas went into a season (not counting the year he was hired play draft) without a first round pick or an eight figure AAV player pencilled in for a starting OL role. And three of those are McGovern’s first year here as a $9M AAV guy. Otherwise it’s Van Roten for the first two years, Alex Lewis (I think) the first year, and McGovern again last year. So mostly early in his tenure. No development, just a lot of piling serious assets into the position with little to no return.

[T0mShane]

11 hours ago, derp said:

Don’t get me wrong, the Becton pick was bad. Made worse by the fact that he brought in Fant because of positional versatility, then it turned out Fant was better on the left side, and then he let Fant go. I also wonder if the early returns on the Becton pick made him overconfident for the 2021 draft, but I digress.

To me the inability to come up with in house answers at positions that should be pretty easy to fill - line guard and RT - is more damning than missing on a first round pick. Yeah it’d be three of five in pretty good shape if Becton was solid - but what’s the excuse for not having answers at the other two? He’s had four drafts and free agency periods.

Put differently, I can think of seven cases out of twenty that Joe Douglas went into a season (not counting the year he was hired play draft) without a first round pick or an eight figure AAV player pencilled in for a starting OL role. And three of those are McGovern’s first year here as a $9M AAV guy. Otherwise it’s Van Roten for the first two years, Alex Lewis (I think) the first year, and McGovern again last year. So mostly early in his tenure. No development, just a lot of piling serious assets into the position with little to no return.

Definitely don’t want to fall down the rabbit hole of defending Douglas draft record, particularly as it relates to the OL. He’s had an array of expensive swings and misses, which is why we’re set to burn another high pick and tens of millions more on middling free agent OL. And that we’re compounding the problem by making zero changes with the scheme or coaching is absurd. The likeliest outcome for 24 is that Rodgers is the 15th(?) best QB in the sport, who won’t entirely be enough to overcome the deficiencies on the OL, but should result in going from seven wins to ten(?) wins. Will that be enough to save Douglas again?

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Definitely don’t want to fall down the rabbit hole of defending Douglas draft record, particularly as it relates to the OL. He’s had an array of expensive swings and misses, which is why we’re set to burn another high pick and tens of millions more on middling free agent OL. And that we’re compounding the problem by making zero changes with the scheme or coaching is absurd. The likeliest outcome for 24 is that Rodgers is the 15th(?) best QB in the sport, who won’t entirely be enough to overcome the deficiencies on the OL, but should result in going from seven wins to ten(?) wins. Will that be enough to save Douglas again?

Increasingly I believe the best draft investments are OL and qb, then good DL.  These positions form the crux of teams and if you have good lines and a good qb it’s far easier to put the wr/te/rb positions in there and have a decent offense.  So investing 1st round picks on (presumably) good OL i have no problem with.  The big problem as always is qb, and yes you can make the playoffs with an average nfl qb.  The term average nfl qb sounds negative but nobody here would be complaining if we had baker here and we made the playoffs.  An average nfl qb wins games and keeps you in most of them.  Rodgers is probably that guy at this point in his career.  

Biggest problem as always is still qb, rodgers is going to miss games and who fills in?  It feels like we’re just waiting for this entire flawed idea of rodgers + elite D + projected good OL to fail and then we’ll have new orators telling us how great the next regime will be.  The underlying flaw in the whole rodgers trade wasn’t the compensation IMO, it was the flawed belief that the rest of the offense was ok and all it needed was a competent qb.  In reality becton is a terrible tackle and the continued injuries decimated the unit.  

What happens in 2024 if rodgers plays the majority of games, they eke a wildcard game and feel overly good about themselves with likely no qb successor

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Increasingly I believe the best draft investments are OL and qb, then good DL.  These positions form the crux of teams and if you have good lines and a good qb it’s far easier to put the wr/te/rb positions in there and have a decent offense.  So investing 1st round picks on (presumably) good OL i have no problem with.  The big problem as always is qb, and yes you can make the playoffs with an average nfl qb.  The term average nfl qb sounds negative but nobody here would be complaining if we had baker here and we made the playoffs.  An average nfl qb wins games and keeps you in most of them.  Rodgers is probably that guy at this point in his career.  

Biggest problem as always is still qb, rodgers is going to miss games and who fills in?  It feels like we’re just waiting for this entire flawed idea of rodgers + elite D + projected good OL to fail and then we’ll have new orators telling us how great the next regime will be.  The underlying flaw in the whole rodgers trade wasn’t the compensation IMO, it was the flawed belief that the rest of the offense was ok and all it needed was a competent qb.  In reality becton is a terrible tackle and the continued injuries decimated the unit.  

What happens in 2024 if rodgers plays the majority of games, they eke a wildcard game and feel overly good about themselves with likely no qb successor

Guessing they go hard after Brissett or Tyrod this offseason. As far as a successor, this regime doesn’t have the luxury to think two years down the line and, honestly, they don’t deserve a shot at drafting another QB. Hopefully the next regime will have a better eye for that position. 

[derp]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Definitely don’t want to fall down the rabbit hole of defending Douglas draft record, particularly as it relates to the OL. He’s had an array of expensive swings and misses, which is why we’re set to burn another high pick and tens of millions more on middling free agent OL. And that we’re compounding the problem by making zero changes with the scheme or coaching is absurd. The likeliest outcome for 24 is that Rodgers is the 15th(?) best QB in the sport, who won’t entirely be enough to overcome the deficiencies on the OL, but should result in going from seven wins to ten(?) wins. Will that be enough to save Douglas again?

Wholeheartedly agree with the conclusion you come to there, and it shouldn’t be enough to save him. Maybe it will but my gosh, going all in to get bounced as the road team in the Wild Card round is not my idea of successful team building. 

I think he should already be gone, but it’d be kind of interesting if Rodgers was committed to a two more year window to see Douglas get a one year extension - or like a nine month extension. Having him as a lame duck this offseason’s and potentially saddling a new GM with a Rodgers who wants to keep playing just seems remarkably short sighed. Of course, given two distinct and reasonable options it’d make sense that the Jets would split the difference and make things super messy.

I think to pull my complaints on the OL building together a little, there’s been a bit of a paradigm shift in terms of what positions have guys come pretty well developed out of college that’s been discussed in some places on this board. Used to be OL was safe and hit the ground running, WR was risky and slow to develop. I think that’s flipped, and there are a bunch of reasons. So this is a time that it’s really prudent to hit OL hard in the mid rounds and develop internally and Douglas hasn’t shown an ability to do that at all.