Overlooked Stats re: teams in the top-10

[Greenseed4]

Chicago is drafting Caleb Williams at #1, this is almost 99% a certainty.  But what about pick #9? A lot of pundits have them selecting a WR to give Caleb a formidable receiving corps of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and say Rome Odunze.  I say shenanigans. 

1. Last year, the Bears were ranked 31st in Sacks.  Their leading sack artists were: M. Sweat (6), J. Jones, (4.5)*, Y. Ngakoue,( 4)*, and D. Walker, (3.5), of their top-4, one is in Arizona and the other is an UFA.                                        
2. The Bears select at #1, #9, and then not again until the 3rd round (#75), with their fourth and final pick in the 4th round (#122).

conclusion: It's more likely that the Bears select a premier pass rusher than getting a third first round WR, but, they can't be overlooked as potential trade back partner for someone looking to leap frog the Jets. 

 

Atlanta is currently in the top position to be the first team to draft defense.  This in conjunction with them signing Kirk Cousins, Rondale Moore, Ray Ray McCloud, and Darnell Mooney to join Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson (all with a top-5 OL), makes this even more probable.  But what about their stats?

1. Last year, the Falcons were tied for third fewest INTs (8). 
2. Their Sack production was lead by Calais Campbell (6.5), and Bud Dupree (6.5), both are UFA. The next top sack producers are both LB's: Arnold Ebiketie (6), and Kaden Elliss (4). This means their top two DL are UFA.  

conclusion: The Falcons are drafting their favorite defensive player whether that is a CB or Edge. 

 

1. CHI: QB

2. WAS: QB

3. NE: QB

4. ARI: WR or Trade out (trading team takes QB)

5. SD: WR, OL or Trade out (trading team takes QB)

6. NYG: QB or WR

7: TEN: OT

8: ATL: Defense

9 CHI: Edge or Trade out (trading team takes WR or OL)

10: NYJ: 

 

Conclusion: If a fourth QB gets taken in spots 4-6, one of the top-3 WRs will very likely be available at #9 and the Jets will only need to trade up one spot if they want to ensure getting him.  This may only cost our second 4th (134) and 6th (185) round pick.

 

 

On edit: added trade chart info and removed “absolutes”

[SickJetFan]

5 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Chicago is drafting Caleb Williams at #1, this is almost 99% a certainty.  But what about pick #9? A lot of pundits have them selecting a WR to give Caleb a formidable receiving corps of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and say Rome Odunze.  I say shenanigans. 

1. Last year, the Bears were ranked 31st in Sacks.  Their leading sack artists were: M. Sweat (6), J. Jones, (4.5)*, Y. Ngakoue,( 4)*, and D. Walker, (3.5), of their top-4, one is in Arizona and the other is an UFA.                                        
2. The Bears select at #1, #9, and then not again until the 3rd round (#75)

conclusion: It's more likely that the Bears select a premier pass rusher than getting a third first round WR, but, they can't be overlooked as potential trade back partner for someone looking to leap frog the Jets. 

 

Atlanta is currently in the top position to be the first team to draft defense.  This in conjunction with them signing Kirk Cousins, Rondale Moore, Ray Ray McCloud, and Darnell Mooney to join Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson (all with a top-5 OL), makes this even more probable.  But what about their stats?

1. Last year, the Falcons were tied for third fewest INTs (8). 
2. Their Sack production was lead by Calais Campbell (6.5), and Bud Dupree (6.5), both are UFA. The next top sack producers are both LB's: Arnold Ebiketie (6), and Kaden Elliss (4). This means their top two DL are UFA.  

conclusion: The Falcons are drafting their favorite defensive player whether that is a CB or Edge. 

 

1. CHI: QB

2. WAS: QB

3. NE: QB

4. ARI: WR or Trade out (trading team takes QB)

5. SD: WR, OL or Trade out (trading team takes QB)

6. NYG: QB or WR

7: TEN: OT

8: ATL: Defense

9 CHI: Edge or Trade out (trading team takes WR or OL)

10: NYJ: 

 

Conclusion: If a fourth QB gets taken in spots 4-6, one of the top-3 WRs will absolutely fall to #9 and the Jets will have the opportunity to trade up one spot if they want to ensure getting him. 

 

 

Problem with Edge tho is that Turner and Verse seem to need strength/development not sure worthy top 10 pick.

Problem with CB is there doesn't seem to be a top 15 in bunch.

[Larz]

What’s the WR obsession about? Rodgers will feed Wilson like he did Adams and throw deep and outside to Willam’s and to Hall a bunch. The slot and TE doesn’t get a lot of attention from him and Bowers might be a better threat in the slot. 
 

Lazard was effective as the big slot in the RPO game in Green Bay 

[extmenace]

Making sure your QB has every opportunity to succeed should be a teams priority. Even if its at the expense of the team as a whole in the short term. At the end of the day, without a QB, you are at best, a mediocre team. When you look around the league and you see the young QBs who are succeeding, one thing is blatantly clear, the young franchise QBs have talent around them, the ones failing don't. 

Herbert: Mike Williams / Keenan Allen / ekeler

Tua: Tyreek / Waddle

Mahomes: Tyreek / Kelce

Burrow: Higgins / Boyd / Chase

Hurts: Smith / AJ brown / stud offensive line 

and etc,..

 

Now look at the busts of recent times..

Sam Darnold: Robbie Anderson?

Mitch Trubisky: Allen Robinson / Taylor Gabriel

Daniel Jones: Slaton / Galloday / Shepard

Bryce Young: Mingo / Thielen / Chark

Could name plenty of other situations on both sides of the coin, and while some guys did have a chance to succeed and couldn't pull it off, the ones that were put in bad situations over the first few years, never seem to get it going. Those first 2ish years of a QBs career are make or break. Its where confidence is kept or lost. The moment that confidence is broken, your QB is likely going to be a lost cause. You almost have to go over board these days if you want that top end prospect to work out. Thats what the bears are attempting to do now. They could easily go and get another WR at 9 because Caleb Williams has the chance to make the bears relevant for the next 10+ years. You do whatever you can early on to make sure he has every opportunity to succeed. 

 

 

 

 

[Integrity28]

23 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Chicago is drafting Caleb Williams at #1, this is almost 99% a certainty.  But what about pick #9? A lot of pundits have them selecting a WR to give Caleb a formidable receiving corps of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and say Rome Odunze.  I say shenanigans. 

1. Last year, the Bears were ranked 31st in Sacks.  Their leading sack artists were: M. Sweat (6), J. Jones, (4.5)*, Y. Ngakoue,( 4)*, and D. Walker, (3.5), of their top-4, one is in Arizona and the other is an UFA.                                        
2. The Bears select at #1, #9, and then not again until the 3rd round (#75)

conclusion: It's more likely that the Bears select a premier pass rusher than getting a third first round WR, but, they can't be overlooked as potential trade back partner for someone looking to leap frog the Jets. 

 

Atlanta is currently in the top position to be the first team to draft defense.  This in conjunction with them signing Kirk Cousins, Rondale Moore, Ray Ray McCloud, and Darnell Mooney to join Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson (all with a top-5 OL), makes this even more probable.  But what about their stats?

1. Last year, the Falcons were tied for third fewest INTs (8). 
2. Their Sack production was lead by Calais Campbell (6.5), and Bud Dupree (6.5), both are UFA. The next top sack producers are both LB's: Arnold Ebiketie (6), and Kaden Elliss (4). This means their top two DL are UFA.  

conclusion: The Falcons are drafting their favorite defensive player whether that is a CB or Edge. 

 

1. CHI: QB

2. WAS: QB

3. NE: QB

4. ARI: WR or Trade out (trading team takes QB)

5. SD: WR, OL or Trade out (trading team takes QB)

6. NYG: QB or WR

7: TEN: OT

8: ATL: Defense

9 CHI: Edge or Trade out (trading team takes WR or OL)

10: NYJ: 

 

Conclusion: If a fourth QB gets taken in spots 4-6, one of the top-3 WRs will absolutely fall to #9 and the Jets will have the opportunity to trade up one spot if they want to ensure getting him. 

 

 

Thoughtful analysis, but you lost me when you started talking in absolutes. At best this is a, “theoretically it would make sense” moment. There are no absolutes in a league owned by billionaires and run by guys with pervasive brain injuries that were never expected to accomplish anything academically when young.

[Greenseed4]

3 hours ago, SickJetFan said:

Problem with Edge tho is that Turner and Verse seem to need strength/development not sure worthy top 10 pick.

Problem with CB is there doesn't seem to be a top 15 in bunch.

Getting the best of the class to help the weakest part of one’s roster is IMO more likely.

There are a few WRs in the third round that project as WR3’s with the ability to develop into a WR1 (Devontez Walker, Javon Baker) moreso than the third round edge prospects.

 

[rangerous]

IMO this is why the jets will be faced with possibility of drafting one of the top three tackles in the draft.  Or maybe one of the top three wrs.  If four QBs go in the top ten then the jets will have quite a few blue chip players to chose from.

[Greenseed4]

3 hours ago, extmenace said:

Making sure your QB has every opportunity to succeed should be a teams priority. Even if its at the expense of the team as a whole in the short term. At the end of the day, without a QB, you are at best, a mediocre team. When you look around the league and you see the young QBs who are succeeding, one thing is blatantly clear, the young franchise QBs have talent around them, the ones failing don't. 

Herbert: Mike Williams / Keenan Allen / ekeler

Tua: Tyreek / Waddle

Mahomes: Tyreek / Kelce

Burrow: Higgins / Boyd / Chase

Hurts: Smith / AJ brown / stud offensive line 

and etc,..

 

Now look at the busts of recent times..

Sam Darnold: Robbie Anderson?

Mitch Trubisky: Allen Robinson / Taylor Gabriel

Daniel Jones: Slaton / Galloday / Shepard

Bryce Young: Mingo / Thielen / Chark

Could name plenty of other situations on both sides of the coin, and while some guys did have a chance to succeed and couldn't pull it off, the ones that were put in bad situations over the first few years, never seem to get it going. Those first 2ish years of a QBs career are make or break. Its where confidence is kept or lost. The moment that confidence is broken, your QB is likely going to be a lost cause. You almost have to go over board these days if you want that top end prospect to work out. Thats what the bears are attempting to do now. They could easily go and get another WR at 9 because Caleb Williams has the chance to make the bears relevant for the next 10+ years. You do whatever you can early on to make sure he has every opportunity to succeed. 

 

I assume this is all about Bears at #9.  
If so,  a great way to support a young QB is keeping the score (against) low, and giving him more chances with the football.   Again, they can draft a WR3 in the third round to play with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.  Of all the examples you listed above, I didn’t see a single one that had THREE WRs picked in the first round. 

[CanadaSteve]

I think the Bears go QB, but will trade out of #9, recoup picks in 2nd round, and stock up in later rounds in this draft and next year. 

[JohnnyLV]

4 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Getting the best of the class to help the weakest part of one’s roster is IMO more likely.

There are a few WRs in the third round that project as WR3’s with the ability to develop into a WR1 (Devontez Walker, Javon Baker) moreso than the third round edge prospects.

 

Not aimed at you but I hear this all the time. And I probably have heard it from a GM as well. But the concept makes sense from an analytical standpoint maybe but in a real draft situation it is frankly idiotic and why so many drafts fail.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

I assume this is all about Bears at #9.  
If so,  a great way to support a young QB is keeping the score (against) low, and giving him more chances with the football.   Again, they can draft a WR3 in the third round to play with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.  Of all the examples you listed above, I didn’t see a single one that had THREE WRs picked in the first round. 

This one is directed at you. That sounds nice but I doubt the correlation is anywhere near what you seem to think it is. Just look at our own development history.  What does seem to have a correlation is elite playmakers on offense and a good oline. Again a GM might think this as well but outside of Brady I think this group would be pretty thin

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, JohnnyLV said:

This one is directed at you. That sounds nice but I doubt the correlation is anywhere near what you seem to think it is. Just look at our own development history.  What does seem to have a correlation is elite playmakers on offense and a good oline. Again a GM might think this as well but outside of Brady I think this group would be pretty thin

I don’t follow, Brady is not on the Bears.  

If they draft Caleb, they would have an “elite playmaking QB.”

They just signed D’Andre Swift, Gerald Everett, and traded for Keenan Allen, to join Cole Kmet and DJ Moore.  Additionally, they signed a backup QB, and 4 backup OL in free agency.Their LT scored 4th best in pass block win rate, and they’re high on RT Darnell Wright.

The idea that they might throw some resources to defense isn’t that far fetched.