Star Wars Mafia

[Vicious89x]

ORLY?

Tell me something - if you lynch me and I flip guilty on coroner (which I won't, I'm a townie so my death scene would show that, unless BG made me a death miller without telling me) . . . what else do you know? Who's been defending me? Who seems to be distancing? Where do you go from there?

Answer - it leaves you with nothing, because I haven't really had a team-like interaction with anyone (even of the "trying to avoid looking like teammates" variety).

Hell, run that analysis on all the players in this game. If they flip guilty, what's the next move. If you think lynching anyone random gives you the same relative level of info, then you should be able to prove it right now, by pointing out what that info would be for each player.

In my opinion D1 is usually about trying to get lucky and get the vote right. Ultimately all you can hope is that it pushes the story forward and the mod gives you more information If you were to flip scum I'd high five the townies and try and figure out what happens next.

Once D2 comes around we'd have an NK and any other amount of actions that can come forth. We'd likely have an investigation so at least one of us will know who is innocent or a townie. You can throw in a watcher role if you want as well but my point being that D1 we have NADA. D2 we have more to work with due to the fact you have night actions put in by scum and power townies that ultimately give us a more concrete direction to follow. An NK could perhaps give us an inkling of who was prodding people enough to warrant being offed.

Still, I am not sure I fully understood your point, are you saying that we'd figure out possible scum by who was defending CTM/Crusher or by deflecting their cases?

But that being said, I'm probably wrong.

[Doggin94it]

Additionally, when added to his defense of his "the doc should protect I28" statement, something seems off. Use the large game excuse that scum can't as easiliy find the doc, but in a game it'd be easier for scum to seperate from one another they'd stick together in the beginning?

People. Stop. Think.

17 players means roughly 4 scum. That means roughly 13 non-mafia players, among which are one doc. That's a 10% chance of hitting the doc with the NK. Vs. a 100% chance of taking out a mod-confirmed innocent?

If I'm scum, and I don't think I28 will be protected, I shoot him tonight, and worry about power role hunting tomorrow.

Seriously, how many games have you guys played? Now, in how many of those has a non-revealed doc died night 1? In how many has there been a no-kill night one, meaning the scum targeted the doc and he protected himself. Can you think of any? I can't - and there's a reason for that: the odds are very much against it. So yeah, Day 1, I think the doc should consider protecting I28.

Second, in a 17 player game, with 4 scum, the mafia need 9 other players to die to get their win at 4 scum 4 townies - 5 days of lynches and 4 NKs, unless we have more than one per night - and that's if none of them die. If one of them dies day 1, then they need 10 townies to die to win at 3-3, again without losing a single scum after Day 1 (which is even harder, since now your down 1 before a finder reveal). Of course you protect your teammate day 1, unless you're running a gambit. You don't lynch teammates unless there's a direct benefit to you. So, yes, you'll find scum on the train early (distancing) and late (can't not vote him if he's really dead anyway), but rarely in the middle (lynch fuel). And you'll often find them trying to derail the train without overtly defending the player, just in case he later dies or is outed by the finder.

And that's what I've seen a lot of with CTM. And the defense of Crush was from a newb who - if he posted without waiting for team input - is exactly the type of player who would make the "direct defense" mistake.

[SMC]

Alright, I'm going to

Vote: Doggin

based on the following:

1. My suspicion of and vote on him from before.

2. He's ignoring my question to him.

3. No matter what his alignment is, we will gain a lot of information from his death in relation to CTM and Slats. Especially if he's mafia.

Losing valuable players early in the game is not a good startegy, but then, good players know that and the whole "steering the healer" thing just won't settle. It was a bad comment.

[Doggin94it]

Uh oh - this is really bad - first and foremost, setting up the old "unless he made me a death miller" BS is ridiculous - you know that.

Well, yes and no. I doubt it. But then, I'm operating with more info than you.

Second of all, denying that you've had any damning interaction with other teammates is equally ridiculous. Of course you have - everybody has...

Cool. I'll put the same challenge to you as I did to Vicious, Wes:

go find it.

Do a reread of the thread, quote the relevant posts, and explain who you would find more suspicious based on their interactions with me if I flipped guilty.

The answer is going to be no-one, because - like any other townie - I have no teammates I'm in communication with

[Doggin94it]

Alright, I'm going to

Vote: Doggin

based on the following:

1. My suspicion of and vote on him from before.

2. He's ignoring my question to him.

3. No matter what his alignment is, we will gain a lot of information from his death in relation to CTM and Slats. Especially if he's mafia.

Losing valuable players early in the game is not a good startegy, but then, good players know that and the whole "steering the healer" thing just won't settle. It was a bad comment.

SMC - which question? Been a busy day.

[Vicious89x]

People. Stop. Think.

17 players means roughly 4 scum. That means roughly 13 non-mafia players, among which are one doc. That's a 10% chance of hitting the doc with the NK. Vs. a 100% chance of taking out a mod-confirmed innocent?

If I'm scum, and I don't think I28 will be protected, I shoot him tonight, and worry about power role hunting tomorrow.

Seriously, how many games have you guys played? Now, in how many of those has a non-revealed doc died night 1? In how many has there been a no-kill night one, meaning the scum targeted the doc and he protected himself. Can you think of any? I can't - and there's a reason for that: the odds are very much against it. So yeah, Day 1, I think the doc should consider protecting I28.

Second, in a 17 player game, with 4 scum, the mafia need 9 other players to die to get their win at 4 scum 4 townies - 5 days of lynches and 4 NKs, unless we have more than one per night - and that's if none of them die. If one of them dies day 1, then they need 10 townies to die to win at 3-3, again without losing a single scum after Day 1 (which is even harder, since now your down 1 before a finder reveal). Of course you protect your teammate day 1, unless you're running a gambit. You don't lynch teammates unless there's a direct benefit to you. So, yes, you'll find scum on the train early (distancing) and late (can't not vote him if he's really dead anyway), but rarely in the middle (lynch fuel). And you'll often find them trying to derail the train without overtly defending the player, just in case he later dies or is outed by the finder.

And that's what I've seen a lot of with CTM. And the defense of Crush was from a newb who - if he posted without waiting for team input - is exactly the type of player who would make the "direct defense" mistake.

See, the issue is I completely disagree on your I28 point. If you're scum, you know who are your scummates and who's innocent. If I28 is innocent and his name is in the OP post that's begging "shoot me". No thanks, plus, with you directing the traffic regardless of what you say, are opening up the doctor to attack.

You want to throw around #'s and all but the truth is that scum may only have a 10% chance of hitting a doc, but they always have a 100% chance of hitting a townie if they're not the doc self protecting. And you're taking that away from the doc. So if I'm scum I just shoot at anyone besides I28. Why? Cause I'm still gonna kill someone, might as well see if I can catch that doc not self-protecting. It feels anti-town to me, that's all.

[DPR]

First, there is this form MafiaScum.net:

Tracker

The Tracker is an informative role that can target a player at night and learn who, if anybody, that player targeted the same night (but not the action the player performed).

The Tracker can be contrasted with the Watcher, who learns who targetted a player, not whom that player targetted.

In which case, if the mafia have a Tracker on their team, inviting the healer to cover I28 is the perfect setup to learn who the healer is. No points for guessing who gets nightkilled on N2 and then we are out a healer.

[slats]

12:19

Where has Jif been?

12:30

Just caught up reading...

Nothing has really changed and JVOR has done nothing but deflect in defense. And he's just a better player than he is leading on...I just dont like it.

I'm sticking with the same vote.

Definitely keeping an eye on my muffin tops battle with Slats. I feel as if Slats is trying to set him up. But the JVOR vote on a case of doodoo is still more concerning.

I love that stuff, always will. JiF's gone all day and shows up as soon as someone asks about him.

Anyway, it wouldn't be a mafia game without JiF having some sort of interest in me. It's gonna take a couple games of seeing me as a townie to start fixing that, I guess.

As for Crush, he's back to acting like himself, which of course has me second guessing my vote. But I still can't completely get over his out of line and out of character response four minutes after I voted for him. Or the fact that he slipped away last game.

I need to go back and read JVoR. Him and Doggin.

I naturally pay attention to slats in the beginning because I often can get a read on him better than I can read other guys, but he's blocking me out this time! I think you know all this, though.

I'm a little leery here, because if the trouble you're having reading me this game is due to the fact that you've slipped over to the Dark Side, then I would be an obvious first case for you.

Not suggesting that at this stage, but feel it's worth noting. I'm interested to hear about the other players you're talking about.

Tell me something - if you lynch me and I flip guilty on coroner (which I won't, I'm a townie so my death scene would show that, unless BG made me a death miller without telling me) . . . what else do you know?

Wha-wha-what???

Not putting anything past him, but that would be a new one around here, too. The idea that you're already explaining how you could turn up scum -despite being town- if you're lynched definitely raises an eyebrow in your general direction.

[Doggin94it]

In my opinion D1 is usually about trying to get lucky and get the vote right. Ultimately all you can hope is that it pushes the story forward and the mod gives you more information If you were to flip scum I'd high five the townies and try and figure out what happens next.

Once D2 comes around we'd have an NK and any other amount of actions that can come forth. We'd likely have an investigation so at least one of us will know who is innocent or a townie. You can throw in a watcher role if you want as well but my point being that D1 we have NADA. D2 we have more to work with due to the fact you have night actions put in by scum and power townies that ultimately give us a more concrete direction to follow. An NK could perhaps give us an inkling of who was prodding people enough to warrant being offed.

Still, I am not sure I fully understood your point, are you saying that we'd figure out possible scum by who was defending CTM/Crusher or by deflecting their cases?

But that being said, I'm probably wrong.

No, you're almost right. Can't really plan on hitting scum Day 1; its likely a townie. And that's fine, because Day 1 is all about starting to develop information. That's why I always look at Day 1 connections in determining where to vote. It's not the be all and end all of a Day 2 case, but its a start.

I'm saying that if CTM was scum, I'd take a hard look at Slats (who I remember subtly stalling the train by talking about its speed), Pac (who somehow missed an opportunity to vote for his nemesis ) and some of the others (would need to do a full re-read). Honestly, though, I don't think Slats is guilty; take that for whatever its worth - and that's part of the reason I'm staying on Crush rather than CTM.

For Crush, it's all of that (i.e. looking for subtle defenders), plus Brett - we have an over the top reaction to a few votes, followed by an overzealous defense by a new player. If Crush is scum, I'd feel real comfortable that Brett is as well. And, again, I'd have to do a reread to see who else was on there.

I'd also feel securer in Slats, since shifting CTM's train to Crush wouldn't be a scum move even if CTM was also guilty (since saving one scum by killing another makes no sense), plus Crush's reaction did not seem pre-arranged.

[Doggin94it]

Aside from wifoming, you do a lovely job of metapainting the target on me. heh

No, that's pure admiration. I could see it as it happened (well, as mod I also knew Thorum was scum) but you worked it beautifully. I have no idea if you're doing it again.

Anybody headed for a lynch is going to object. A first time player will get emotional and say things like "I swear I'm not mafia! Really!" and an experienced player will think of a trick to divert attention away from them - much like the casual post above, where you pull the old "Hey, look at DPR - he's done that before! Classic.

Why don't answer my question? It's buggin' me that you are avoiding it - it's not like its a trap or something...

What question?

[DPR]

Well, yes and no. I doubt it. But then, I'm operating with more info than you.

Cool. I'll put the same challenge to you as I did to Vicious, Wes:

go find it.

Do a reread of the thread, quote the relevant posts, and explain who you would find more suspicious based on their interactions with me if I flipped guilty.

The answer is going to be no-one, because - like any other townie - I have no teammates I'm in communication with

Second, if you had that role, you'd be playing differently, so I'm not buying the old "I have information you don't" thing. You are far too smart to try and leak that at this point and hope that it sticks.

As far as tying you to players goes, if you flip scum, CTM will be at the top of my list to lynch tomorrow. Sveral people noticed the potential for a gambit there, and that's what I'm talking about.

Look - I'm not trying to Big Game Hunt. Help yourself and the town out by turning this around and make some sense of it.

[DPR]

I asked why you still had your vote on Crusher.

[Doggin94it]

First, there is this form MafiaScum.net:

Tracker

The Tracker is an informative role that can target a player at night and learn who, if anybody, that player targeted the same night (but not the action the player performed).

The Tracker can be contrasted with the Watcher, who learns who targetted a player, not whom that player targetted.

In which case, if the mafia have a Tracker on their team, inviting the healer to cover I28 is the perfect setup to learn who the healer is. No points for guessing who gets nightkilled on N2 and then we are out a healer.

*le sigh*

First, you mean if the Mafia has a watcher (a tracker would follow I28)

And second, this is why, if I were the doc, I'd have just protected myself. And why I didn't say "Doc, protect I28".

So much for planting seeds of doubt . . . odds are I28 dies tonight.

[Doggin94it]

See, the issue is I completely disagree on your I28 point. If you're scum, you know who are your scummates and who's innocent. If I28 is innocent and his name is in the OP post that's begging "shoot me". No thanks, plus, with you directing the traffic regardless of what you say, are opening up the doctor to attack.

You want to throw around #'s and all but the truth is that scum may only have a 10% chance of hitting a doc, but they always have a 100% chance of hitting a townie if they're not the doc self protecting. And you're taking that away from the doc. So if I'm scum I just shoot at anyone besides I28. Why? Cause I'm still gonna kill someone, might as well see if I can catch that doc not self-protecting. It feels anti-town to me, that's all.

Different strokes, Vic. Truth is, I'm a much better player as mafia than in any other alignment (and I'm a pretty damn decent townie; the only role I suck in is SK, since I can't run games with teammates and I can't really play the detective, since if I take out one or two scum and get NK'd for my trouble, it doesn't help me ) - and as a scum player, I28 would be my first NK.

[DPR]

Yep. I did mean a Watcher.

Honestly, I've never been the same since they switched all the damn names around. meh

[Vicious89x]

No, you're almost right. Can't really plan on hitting scum Day 1; its likely a townie. And that's fine, because Day 1 is all about starting to develop information. That's why I always look at Day 1 connections in determining where to vote. It's not the be all and end all of a Day 2 case, but its a start.

I'm saying that if CTM was scum, I'd take a hard look at Slats (who I remember subtly stalling the train by talking about its speed), Pac (who somehow missed an opportunity to vote for his nemesis ) and some of the others (would need to do a full re-read). Honestly, though, I don't think Slats is guilty; take that for whatever its worth - and that's part of the reason I'm staying on Crush rather than CTM.

For Crush, it's all of that (i.e. looking for subtle defenders), plus Brett - we have an over the top reaction to a few votes, followed by an overzealous defense by a new player. If Crush is scum, I'd feel real comfortable that Brett is as well. And, again, I'd have to do a reread to see who else was on there.

I'd also feel securer in Slats, since shifting CTM's train to Crush wouldn't be a scum move even if CTM was also guilty (since saving one scum by killing another makes no sense), plus Crush's reaction did not seem pre-arranged.

I see your point on this. I'm just always leery of tying people together like that as we may end up doing scums work for them. Sometimes people can just be wrong and defend someone.

We're just very different players. You follow #'s, logic, %. For me I am more prone to go with what I'm feeling at the time.

Even so, I still don't like the idea of directing the doc what to do. It feels like you are making that person vulnerable from moment 1. No offense to I28 but if he's roleless, then I'd rather lose him then our doc on some dumb luck shot by scum who gets him because he was protecting a roleless. That's all.

[Doggin94it]

I asked why you still had your vote on Crusher.

I answered that. See here: http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1563285&postcount=551

[Doggin94it]

Second, if you had that role, you'd be playing differently, so I'm not buying the old "I have information you don't" thing. You are far too smart to try and leak that at this point and hope that it sticks.

As far as tying you to players goes, if you flip scum, CTM will be at the top of my list to lynch tomorrow. Sveral people noticed the potential for a gambit there, and that's what I'm talking about.

Look - I'm not trying to Big Game Hunt. Help yourself and the town out by turning this around and make some sense of it.

And this is why I'll never run the classic Gambit as long as its named after me. It no longer gets me any benefit, because as soon as I flip scum, everyone assumes the person I was fighting with most might be scum.

I run other things, now.

[Doggin94it]

Second, if you had that role, you'd be playing differently, so I'm not buying the old "I have information you don't" thing. You are far too smart to try and leak that at this point and hope that it sticks.

Like I said, I have not been told that I'm a death miller.

[Vicious89x]

Different strokes, Vic. Truth is, I'm a much better player as mafia than in any other alignment (and I'm a pretty damn decent townie; the only role I suck in is SK, since I can't run games with teammates and I can't really play the detective, since if I take out one or two scum and get NK'd for my trouble, it doesn't help me ) - and as a scum player, I28 would be my first NK.

Basically. And perhaps that's why people aren't seeing eye to eye with you on this matter. For most people, including myself, doc and cop are our two most important roles. That's why in the last game JVoR outed CTM as a roled townie and it felt like SUCH a dirty move to me. Telling our doc to forfeit his self protect it just feels like begging the mafia to shoot elsewhere and possibly hit the doc. Chances are low, but it only takes 1 night to lose that role. Once they're gone, they can focus on offing the cop.

But like you said, different strokes.

[Vicious89x]

Gotta log off guys. I'll catch up with you guys later before LOST.

[Doggin94it]

I see your point on this. I'm just always leery of tying people together like that as we may end up doing scums work for them. Sometimes people can just be wrong and defend someone.

We're just very different players. You follow #'s, logic, %. For me I am more prone to go with what I'm feeling at the time.

Even so, I still don't like the idea of directing the doc what to do. It feels like you are making that person vulnerable from moment 1. No offense to I28 but if he's roleless, then I'd rather lose him then our doc on some dumb luck shot by scum who gets him because he was protecting a roleless. That's all.

Yep. Which drives me crazy, because how the hell do I respond to "it just feels wrong" as a case?

[DPR]

Not really buying the reaction/explanation. I could be wrong - but right now, my top suspects are him and CTM, and either lynch would offer a decent amount of info. If I see a better candidate, I'll move it - as usual.

Why do you ask when the answer is obvious?

I guess I bought the reaction/explanation. If he was scum, I figure he's been through enough games @ DM to know when to false reveal and at least take out a finder or healer as collateral damage.

The fact that he just got angry, especially when prodded, and then cooled down just made him look like he was being genuine. IMO, anyway.

[CTM]

Yes, of course - but even a 1 in three chance of lynching scum is better than standard odds (1/4), plus it gives the finder a basis for targeting . . .

you know all this.

not when it causes myopia

[Doggin94it]

not when it causes myopia

Well, obviously. But that's like saying we should ignore all info for fear of myopia. You work with what you have, and keep your eyes open for everything else.

[CTM]

And that's what I've seen a lot of with CTM. And the defense of Crush was from a newb who - if he posted without waiting for team input - is exactly the type of player who would make the "direct defense" mistake.

yes, i'll give you that..

[CTM]

Well, yes and no. I doubt it. But then, I'm operating with more info than you.

Cool. I'll put the same challenge to you as I did to Vicious, Wes:

go find it.

Do a reread of the thread, quote the relevant posts, and explain who you would find more suspicious based on their interactions with me if I flipped guilty.

The answer is going to be no-one, because - like any other townie - I have no teammates I'm in communication with

Seriously? If we were inclined to follow lynch for info as you are suggesting, i'd say that your instant fascination with me would be curious, as well as with Crusher now. Direct defense is not the only way teams work together in this..

you know this

[CTM]

And this is why I'll never run the classic Gambit as long as its named after me. It no longer gets me any benefit, because as soon as I flip scum, everyone assumes the person I was fighting with most might be scum.

I run other things, now.

Lies!!

You pulled it with crusher in a game i modded, if memory serves..

[CTM]

Well, obviously. But that's like saying we should ignore all info for fear of myopia. You work with what you have, and keep your eyes open for everything else.

Doggin, i asked you to post what infor you'd glean from my lynch and you basically named every active player and one swinger in FL with his "lady friend"

Essentially, if you've been active and in any way commented or ignored a super early train on me, you can find a reason as to why that action was scum like.

It reads to me like you are writing a script that you can gently nudge the town into following for the next few days or worse yet, creating the trail of breadcrumbs right back to the death star for the rest of us to follow.

That being said, I'm not voting you yet cause frankly I always react this way to you, for whatever reason. I just don't like the feeling like your working on the next three lynches at all times..

[Dan.]

Hi everyone. Catching up now. Sorry for any typos in my earlier posts; for some reason when I'm on my phone I have trouble reading over posts I'm writing that are longer than a few lines. Does anyone with an iPhone know how to do that easily?

[AVM]

People. Stop. Think.

17 players means roughly 4 scum. That means roughly 13 non-mafia players, among which are one doc. That's a 10% chance of hitting the doc with the NK. Vs. a 100% chance of taking out a mod-confirmed innocent?

If I'm scum, and I don't think I28 will be protected, I shoot him tonight, and worry about power role hunting tomorrow.

Seriously, how many games have you guys played? Now, in how many of those has a non-revealed doc died night 1? In how many has there been a no-kill night one, meaning the scum targeted the doc and he protected himself. Can you think of any? I can't - and there's a reason for that: the odds are very much against it. So yeah, Day 1, I think the doc should consider protecting I28.

Second, in a 17 player game, with 4 scum, the mafia need 9 other players to die to get their win at 4 scum 4 townies - 5 days of lynches and 4 NKs, unless we have more than one per night - and that's if none of them die. If one of them dies day 1, then they need 10 townies to die to win at 3-3, again without losing a single scum after Day 1 (which is even harder, since now your down 1 before a finder reveal). Of course you protect your teammate day 1, unless you're running a gambit. You don't lynch teammates unless there's a direct benefit to you. So, yes, you'll find scum on the train early (distancing) and late (can't not vote him if he's really dead anyway), but rarely in the middle (lynch fuel). And you'll often find them trying to derail the train without overtly defending the player, just in case he later dies or is outed by the finder.

And that's what I've seen a lot of with CTM. And the defense of Crush was from a newb who - if he posted without waiting for team input - is exactly the type of player who would make the "direct defense" mistake.

I'll add on to what Vic said. Do you REALLY think that he's simply a role-less innocent? As in there is NOTHING that BG has added on for flavor if/when someone tries to off him? The opening post says he's so darn innocent, not that he's so darn roleless. Just my opinion.

[StraightCash]

I'll add on to what Vic said. Do you REALLY think that he's simply a role-less innocent? As in there is NOTHING that BG has added on for flavor if/when someone tries to off him? The opening post says he's so darn innocent, not that he's so darn roleless. Just my opinion.

NINJAD me you sob. I was just typing this response.

Doggin- why are you so set that I28 is a 100% NK? I find it hard to believe that Bleedin would throw him out there so he could be killed the first night.

[AVM]

NINJAD me you sob. I was just typing this response.

Doggin- why are you so set that I28 is a 100% NK? I find it hard to believe that Bleedin would throw him out there so he could be killed the first night.

To be fair to Doggin, I dont think he's said 100% -- just that if he were scum he'd seriously consider it. Honestly, if I were, I'd rather look elsewhere. Too many unknowns with I28...it's the same reason he won't get any pressure in terms of a lynch early on.

[Doggin94it]

Why will I28 be NK'd? Because he won't be lynched, and scum needs him dead.

Also, I have no idea if he has any other role

[Dan.]

Before I look back at all the stuff with Doggin, I wanted to address my earlier comment about the Slats situation. It wasn't as shady as it first seemed when I was skimming through on my phone.

One of the posts I had been thinking of was this:

It just seems to me that slats seems to be trying to orchestrate things. Whether he is trying to bait people into revealing something or has a more sinister motives is what I am trying to figure out.

I thought this came very soon after I unvoted, possibly as an attempt by Klecko to redirect attention Slats' way. But actually our posts happened at the same time, with someone else's sandwiched in between, which is why it looked worse than it really was. (Not to mention, the claim that Slats was "baiting people into revealing something" seemed a little extreme.)

Aside from that, it was just brettw4rd with a couple posts about why he thought Slats would get lynched today, which struck me as odd in the wake of my unvote and what I thought was Klecko trying to push attention back to Slats.

Anyway, this is why I said I needed to reread before commenting on it in depth. .