innovating the NFL schedule ~ ~ ~

[kelly]

In February, a group of researchers revealed a surprising level of systemic disparity in the NFL's yearly game schedule. They presented their paper at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, most notably identifying long-term inequities in matchups between teams with dissimilar rest, and soon found -- believe it or not -- that the NFL wanted to compare notes.

 

And so it came to be that Drs. Murat Kurt and Mark Karwan spent an hour recently speaking with Mike North, the NFL's director of broadcast planning and one of the key members of an executive team that produces the league's game schedule. Their discussion won't impact the 2015 edition, likely to be released next week, but their pending collaboration could help smooth out the edges of future efforts."We would look at this as something fun for us and maybe a help for the NFL," said Karwan, who like Kurt is a professor at the University at Buffalo. "You can't get a perfect schedule, but ... our goal would be to show them that a lot of the schedules they generate could be improved."

 

To be fair, anecdotal schedule inequities have helped evolve the NFL's schedule release into a day of national hysteria. In 2014, for example, we saw the New Orleans Saints play four games in five weeks against teams coming off either their bye week or a Thursday night game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had only four home games in a 13-week window, losing 10 of 12. The Baltimore Ravens, on the other hand, played only one divisional game in the strong AFC North after Week 9. They went 4-2 after that point and earned a wild-card playoff bid.

 

We typically dismiss such disparities with the expectation that they even out over time. But when the Buffalo Bills complained publicly about concerns in their 2013 schedule, Kurt and Karwan teamed with Ph.d. candidate Niraj Kumar Pandey and student Kyle Cunningham to investigate. They emerged with a startling discovery: The league's schedule formula did not correct for the disparities, leaving some teams to absorb significantly more competitive disadvantage than others.

 

The chart provides a summation of their most notable finding. Since the eight-division format began in 2002, some teams have played more than twice as many games against better-rested opponents -- either coming off a bye or a Thursday night game -- than others. The Bills had the most (29), and the Cincinnati Bengals were given the fewest (14). In 2013, the Bills had five such games; the division rival New England Patriots had none.It seems obvious that a team with more rest than its opponent has an inherent advantage. To quantify the competitive impact, the researchers looked at a five-season span from 2009-13. Over that period, the NFL's average win percentage when playing a team with more rest was 44.7 -- about four percentage points lower than the average win percentage against all opponents. In 2010, notably, the difference was 14 percentage points.

 

"The way I put it," Karwan said, "is that it's significant enough that I'm sure Las Vegas would want to know about it."So the group developed a mathematical method of creating schedules with conditions that address the competitive advantages they identified. The details can be found in their paper via this link, but in essence their resulting formula eliminates the bye week advantage and minimizes the turnarounds caused by Thursday night games. They reduced the instances of playing three consecutive road games and spread divisional games more evenly through the schedule.In a statement provided to ESPN.com, league spokesman Greg Aiello said the formula "is similar to what the NFL uses but differs in that it focuses only on fairness." Aiello added: "It does not, for example, take into consideration television ratings and other matters. We have always said that we look for the right balance between competitive issues and other considerations such as television. The idea of creating schedules that are supposedly 'fair' to all teams but don't give consideration to television ramifications and other matters, such as stadium conflicts, is unrealistic."

 

Indeed, Karwan and Kurt acknowledged, as third-party researchers they had no access to the long annual list of television requests and limits to stadium availability. Each year, for example, broadcasters identify about 40 of the 256 games for prime-time or 4 p.m. ET slots. Those requests naturally impact flexibility for the remaining games.North communicated a message similar to Aiello's but, according to Karwan and Kurt, expressed interest in their methods and agreed to provide the missing proprietary information -- after the schedule has been released -- to see if their model produced better results.

 

"Right now we can't claim we are going to do it," Karwan said. "We would need a new student to help and it's probably going to take two or three years to expand our method. It's possible we'll have to loosen some of our other conditions to make it work. But we have the ideas, and they said they could get us the data. Maybe it is a situation where we could eventually generate the 2018 schedule after it's announced and then we can compare."There don't appear to be any conspiracy theories here. A method that gives an advantage to the Bengals, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars -- four of the six teams at the bottom of the chart -- doesn't align with any favored-team conspiracies I'm aware of.

 

These inequities are mostly a matter of math and economic reality. Nothing will change the latter, but hopefully in a few years, we'll find that the former can be improved.

 

Distribution Of NFL Games Against Rested Opponents, 2002-14 Team Games vs. team off bye Games vs. team off Thurs. night Total Bills 19 10 29 Falcons 19 9 28 Titans 17 8 25 Eagles 15 10 25 Bears 15 9 24 Dolphins 14 10 24 Rams 12 11 23 Giants 10 13 23 Texans 16 6 22 Chiefs 13 9 22 Ravens 13 9 22 Seahawks 11 11 22 Chargers 17 4 21 Browns 16 5 21 Buccaneers 14 7 21 Packers 16 4 20 Cowboys 16 4 20 Saints 14 5 19 Colts 13 6 19 Vikings 10 9 19 Patriots 10 9 19 Broncos 14 4 18 Lions 13 5 18 Raiders 11 7 18 Cardinals 8 10 18 49ers 12 4 16 Jaguars 10 6 16 Jets 10 6 16 Panthers 9 7 16 Redskins 13 2 15 Steelers 8 7 15 Bengals 8 6 14 Source: Mark Karwan et al /University

 

> http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/166141/inside-slant-innovating-the-nfl-schedule

[kelly]

more re the schedule...

 

~ ~  NFL fans are one step closer to knowing who their favorite teams will play from Week 1 through Week 17.

 

 

League spokesman Brian McCarthy tweeted Friday that the 2015 NFL schedule will be released next week. No day was given, but last year's schedule was unveiled on a Wednesday. A breakdown of home and away opponents for each team was released by the NFL in December.

 

Along with revealing next season's slate of Sunday, Monday and Thursday night prime-time tilts, next week's release also will unveil who the Super Bowl-winning New England Patriots will play in September's NFL Kickoff.

 

In conjunction with the announcement, NFL Network and NFL.com will offer complete coverage of the release, so check back here for details.

 

> http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000486008/article/nfl-schedule-to-be-released-next-week

[Klecko73isGod]

[papz187]

Ahhhh who cares if the Bills have been getting screwed with having to play numerous games against opponents on extended rest....they suck anyways lol

On the other hand, why do the Pats get scheduling advantages as well. That's something that needs to be fixed. Just swap NE and Buffalo and problem solved.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk

[patman]

The only way to even it out is for all teams to get an equal amount of non sunday games.  The networks are not going to go for that, they want the Pats to be nationally televised more than the Bills.

[patman]

Ahhhh who cares if the Bills have been getting screwed with having to play numerous games against opponents on extended rest....they suck anyways lol

On the other hand, why do the Pats get scheduling advantages as well. That's something that needs to be fixed. Just swap NE and Buffalo and problem solved.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk

Because the networks want teams with a bigger national draw to have the Thursday, & Monday games. What the nfl has to eliminate is playing on the road the week after the other team has a bye, Teams that come off byes should have to play on the road.  

[kelly]

The only way to even it out is for all teams to get an equal amount of non sunday games.  The networks are not going to go for that, they want the Pats to be nationally televised more than the Bills.

 

yup..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

cheers ~ ~

[Larz]

at least the bills have rex now, his teams always plays great coming off of the bye week

[kelly]

New schedule-release target is Tuesday or Wednesday

 

Few targets move like the one that eventually will trigger the release of the NFL’s regular-season schedule.  Originally planned for next Thursday, a source with knowledge of the situation tells PFT that the finalists are now Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

The schedule is and has been ready to go.  As another source tells PFT, the league circulates the finished product to some of the more influential owners for “beta testing” before making it officials.  It’s unclear whether any of the owners have the juice to force changes to the schedule; some adjustments would require more effort than shuffling a couple of games around.  It could be that Commissioner Roger Goodell, whose job partially entails keeping a constituency of 32 as happy as possible, wants some of the key members of the group that determines his terms of employment to feel as if they are involved.

 

And they should be.  It’s ultimately their sport.  Besides, a fresh look at the 256-game slate from a self-made billionaire or two (and even from some of the guys who had the billions handed to them at birth) can’t hurt.Regarding the specific day for releasing the schedule, NFL Network typically has a strong voice in the process.  Currently, the word is that NFLN prefers Wednesday.Either way, the wait for applying the “when” to the “who” and the “where” will end soon.And it’s not as trivial an exercise as some would suggest.  

 

Apart from letting fans make travel plans games the intend to attend or permitting fans to begin anticipating key prime-time and other high-profile games, individual teams will know whether they’ll be facing an array of cream puffs to start the season, a murderer’s row, or something in between.  For some franchises, the won-loss record at the end of September could be a major factor in whether the team does or doesn’t get to the postseason.

 

> http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/18/new-schedule-release-target-is-tuesday-or-wednesday/

 

[Jet9]

Because the networks want teams with a bigger national draw to have the Thursday, & Monday games. What the nfl has to eliminate is playing on the road the week after the other team has a bye, Teams that come off byes should have to play on the road.

No more playing on Sundays and then Thursdays. I realize the NFLPA has zero spine but the fact that they let this happen is criminal.

[patman]

No more playing on Sundays and then Thursdays. I realize the NFLPA has zero spine but the fact that they let this happen is criminal.

You understand that that will cut their share of the revenue by about 25 mill per year. sh*t teams get higher draft choices and the good teams don't complain.

[southparkcpa]

No more playing on Sundays and then Thursdays. I realize the NFLPA has zero spine but the fact that they let this happen is criminal.

Huh???? that's sort of impossible if you want a Thursday game no?

[Gastineau Lives]

Thursday games should go out the window. They almost always suck.

[Jet9]

Huh???? that's sort of impossible if you want a Thursday game no?

There's a way to work the bye weeks in, etc. The only thing is there can't be a Thursday game every week. Hell, I'm all for 2 bye weeks actually. Not sure why the PA doesn't push for this.

[kelly]

saw this..

 

~ ~ Week 7 : Sunday, Oct. 25, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.

 

The Jets will have played in London in Week 4, followed by their bye and a home game against Washington leading into the game. Here’s what we see in the crystal ball: His confidence rising after signing Darrelle Revis away from the Patriots, Jets owner Woody Johnson shares with reporters after the game that he was impressed with the way Patriots

 

  soon-to-be-free-agents Nate Solder, Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower 

 

 

 looked and thinks they might be good fits in New York next year.

 

Patriots 24, Jets 13. Record: 3-3.

 

rest of above article :

> http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/75903/game-by-game-predictions-new-england-patriots

[kelly]

he release of the NFL schedule provides fans the opportunity to project how their favorite team will do in the upcoming season. For many, their estimations are forced almost entirely by how teams played the year before. That's not a foolproof method, but it still makes for some interesting discussion.Because of the fluid nature of the NFL, it's difficult if not impossible to figure out which teams will have the easiest and toughest schedule at the outset of the regular season. Teams coming off great seasons could lose an integral player to injury (think the Indianapolis Colts without Peyton Manning in 2011) or see an older veteran or two regress (the Denver Broncos with a 39-year-old Manning in 2014).

 

In other cases, teams that finished outside of the playoff picture manage to improve significantly, whether via free agency, the draft or simply the current roster developing into better football players.

Because each team plays divisional opponents twice each year, strength of schedule is mostly a reflection of how the division performed a year ago. For teams in the NFC South, that means a very favorable outlook. For those locked in the death match known as the NFC West, not so much.

Below is the strength of schedule for every team as it enters the 2015 season :

 

 

Rank Team Record Opp. Win % 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 147-107-2 0.579 2 Cincinnati Bengals 144-112 0.563 3 San Francisco 49ers 143-112-1 0.561 4 Seattle Seahawks 142-112-2 0.559 5 Arizona Cardinals 142-113-1 0.557 6 St. Louis Rams 141-114-1 0.553 7 (tie) Oakland Raiders 139-116-1 0.545 7 (tie) Kansas City Chiefs 139-116-1 0.545 9 Cleveland Browns 138-116-2 0.543 10 Denver Broncos 138-117-1 0.541 11 Baltimore Ravens 137-117-2 0.539 12 Minnesota Vikings 138-118 0.539 13 Chicago Bears 136-120 0.531 14 Green Bay Packers 135-120-1 0.529 15 Detroit Lions 135-121 0.527 16 San Diego Chargers 132-123-1 0.518 17 Miami Dolphins 126-130 0.492 18 New York Jets 125-131 0.488 19 Buffalo Bills 124-131-1 0.486 20 (tie) Washington 122-133-1 0.478 20 (tie) New York Giants 122-133-1 0.478 22 New England Patriots 122-134 0.477 23 Philadelphia Eagles 121-134-1 0.475 24 Dallas Cowboys 119-136-1 0.467 25 Jacksonville Jaguars 118-137-1 0.463 26 Tennessee Titans 111-144-1 0.435 27 Carolina Panthers 111-145 0.434 28 New Orleans Saints 109-145-2 0.429 29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 108-146-2 0.425 30 Houston Texans 106-148-2 0.417 31 Indianapolis Colts 106-149-1 0.417 32 Atlanta Falcons 104-150-2 0.409

 

> http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/4/21/8459471/2015-nfl-schedule-strength-steelers-falcons

[kelly]

kind of a loooong read..

 

 

~ ~ Creating the NFL Schedule

 

> http://operations.nfl.com/the-game/creating-the-nfl-schedule