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Jets coverage better without injured Jim Leonhard


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By Mike Salfino on Dec 14, 2011, 10:59 am

SS Jim Leonhard’s loss is far from devastating. It actually improves the Jets. Rex Ryan has a blind spot with Leonhard, who is a coach’s pet for being smart enough to make calls and for absolutely getting the most out of his ability. But he’s too small to defend the bigs that safeties are often put on. With Leonhard out there, the Jets do not beat the Patriots last year because Bill Belichick wisely picks on him. The mismatch is whoever Leonhard is covering.

Brodney Pool has better range and can put Eric Smith into the run support role that he’s best suited to play. So the Jets coverage, I predict, will dramatically improve as it did last year when the defense played out of its mind versus the pass against three consecutive Hall of Fame QBs on the road in the playoffs — Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger.

So the idea that this is a loss that could set the team back is silly. It’s terrible that he got hurt. I wish he didn’t. But Leonhard is a very limited player.

However, I must note that there is statistical evidence to the contrary, courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com via CSNPhilly.com.

According to
Pro Football Focus
, which measures each player on every snap of every game and assigns a per-play grade ranging from minus-2 to plus-2, Leonhard was cumulatively the NFL’s fourth-best safety in pass coverage this season. Only 11 of the 20 passes thrown Leonhard’s were caught. In addition to not allowing a touchdown, Leonhard had one interception, four passes defensed and an opponent’s QB rating of 55.8.

However, Leonhard is playing strong safety and thus has more limited coverage responsibilities. He forces Eric Smith, a natural strong safety, to be the free safety and Smith is not suited for that role. Smith’s an in-the-box safety who rarely should be ranging far downfield. So that’s why I think that Leonhard’s coverage ability is overstated by these stats — you have to factor both Leonhard’s more limited responsibility and the added responsibility he gives to a player — Smith — who is not good in coverage.

Bottom line: Smith at strong safety and Pool at free safety is not great, but it’s the best safety combination on the roster even with Leonhard is healthy. I discount the coaching on the field because I expect the coaches to prepare the players off the field.

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Stat check: The Leonhard factor

December, 14, 2011

Dec 14

12:16

PM ET

By Rich Cimini

For the second straight year, the Jets will make a stretch run without dependable S Jim Leonhard (season-ending knee surgery). A year ago, their defensive efficiency slipped without Leonhard. John Choi and John Parolin, of ESPN Stats & Information, provide a breakdown of how they fared with and without Leonhard last season.

Category --- Wk 1-12 --- Wk 13-17

Pass att per TD ... 25.9 ... 15.9

Rush per TD ........ 46.7 ... 25.6

Opp PPG .............. 17.0 ... 23.4

W-L ........................ 9-2 .... 2-3

Leonhard also had a big impact on the Jets’ pass defense against throws downfield. Before Leonhard’s injury, they allowed the lowest completion percentage and yards-per-attempt on throws 15+ yards in the league. After the injury, the Jets ranked 20th in completion percentage and 12th in yards-per-attempt over the last five weeks of the season.

Throws 15+ Yards Downfield

Category --- Wk 1-12 --- Wk 13-17

Comp pct ... 28.6* ..... 41.5

Yds/att ...... 7.4* ......... 9.2

Att/TD ....... 22.4* ...... 13.7

Passer rtg 54.0* ....... 79.2

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LOL. Is this serious? So Jim Leonhard getting hurt makes the Jets defense better because of how much Eric Smith ******* blows? That's brilliant. Or maybe, it just further makes the point that Pool should have been starting across from Leonhard all season long, and Smith should never have been re-signed to begin with.

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By Mike Salfino on Dec 14, 2011, 10:59 am

SS Jim Leonhard’s loss is far from devastating. It actually improves the Jets. With Leonhard out there, the Jets do not beat the Patriots last year because Bill Belichick wisely picks on him. The mismatch is whoever Leonhard is covering.

Seriously?

Jets 2010 record vs. The Patriots:

With Jim Leonhard 1-0

Without Jim "eonhard 1-1

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