Why This Year’s Draft Will Be Different

[JetNation]

The Jets have drafted 23 players over the last five years.  This is by far the lowest in the NFL, the league average has been 38.  Of those picks only seven were defensive players.  This aggressive style trading pick for players moving up in the draft has allowed the team to be competitive with back to back championship game appearances.  However the shelf life of a team built in this manner tends to be short.  As we all saw once the roster started to turn over the replacements were not there, for example Wayne Hunter.

With a glaring need for youth, speed and athleticism the Jets 2012 NFL draft strategy will have to move in a different direction.  The draft is a complicated process. Top prospects often fail, Vlad Ducasse selected 61st overall, while others later round picks often flourish, Matt Slauson selected 193rd.  I’m not saying the team will find late round Pro Bowlers left and right but the fact is if you draft four players there is no way six will work out.

Here’s what I think will happen:

1. The Jets will trade back in the first round and get a pick or two more.  This will also allow some flexibility to trade up in other rounds.
2. They will concentrate on defense.  Yes the offense needs help but the team is going to win with defense.  This aging defense needs replacements for this year and next as older high priced players move on.
3. They will draft for their needs as well as for the future.  Here’s an example, tight end is not a glaring need but Dustin Keller is an unrestricted free agent after next year and may not be able to be retained.

Hopefully a crop of young talent will allow the team to continue to have success while helping the salary cap situation allowing some personnel flexibility and depth something the team sorely lacks.

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[T0mShane]

Disagree. There's not a chance that Tannenbaum trades back with an eye on the future. The guy knows he has to win immediately, so look for another desperation draft where he trades up trying to find the one or two players that might help him keep his job immediately. Trading back means you have confidence in your scouting department to find talent later on. This is not a hallmark of Tannenbaum's regime. Add to it the fact that it doesn't appear as though he'll have enough cap space to run around and plug holes with overpriced vets (to mask his inability to draft), and you can almost guarantee that this draft will end up being an all-or-nothing ****fest.

[sg3]

I think the Jets will have at least 3 and maybe 4 compensatory picks plus their full allotment. Without the rookie salary cap, they would have, in the past, probably done a Belichick and traded away some of those picks for futures... With it, though, my guess is that tanny won't do much moving around and select each pick at the place he is slotted. If anything, he may package two picks and try and move up at the beginning of day 2. The comp picks are probably a five for Ellis and 2 or 3 sevens for Smith, Coleman and/or Edwards and those can't be traded up or down

[The Crusher]

I think the Jets will have at least 3 and maybe 4 compensatory picks plus their full allotment. Without the rookie salary cap, they would have, in the past, probably done a Belichick and traded away some of those picks for futures... With it, though, my guess is that tanny won't do much moving around and select each pick at the place he is slotted. If anything, he may package two picks and try and move up at the beginning of day 2. The comp picks are probably a five for Ellis and 2 or 3 sevens for Smith, Coleman and/or Edwards and those can't be traded up or down

Is this before or after we draft our QB of the futrure to learn behind Peyton?

[will]

Disagree. There's not a chance that Tannenbaum trades back with an eye on the future. The guy knows he has to win immediately, so look for another desperation draft where he trades up trying to find the one or two players that might help him keep his job immediately. Trading back means you have confidence in your scouting department to find talent later on. This is not a hallmark of Tannenbaum's regime. Add to it the fact that it doesn't appear as though he'll have enough cap space to run around and plug holes with overpriced vets (to mask his inability to draft), and you can almost guarantee that this draft will end up being an all-or-nothing ****fest.

I disagree. No NFL executive wants to preside over the demise of his team. Tannenbaum may not be an elite talent evaluator (or employ one on his staff) but he's a savvy business man. He has to understand that there is no one player who can quickly right this ship. As presently constructed the Jets have glaring holes at RT, S and OLB. After next year that list will likely expand to include at least NT (Puoha), ILB (Scott), OLB (Pace), TE (Keller) and G (Moore). And as these recent 'star' players are turned over some of the remaining players are sure to be exposed just as (IMO) Slauson and Moore were exposed in those few games when Mangold was hurt. I wonder how adequate Harris, Cromartie and Wilson play when they aren't surrounded and supported by Puoha, Pace and Scott, among others.

And I haven't even mentioned the usual cast of culprits: Sanchez - I'm in the camp with those here that will support him for another year in a new offense tho he single handedly cost us a few games, Greene - he of the declining explosiveness, Eric Smith - nuff said, and our vaunted WR crew.

So I can't imagine a world in which Tannenbaum trades up some slots to get a guy like say Richardson (who, besides a QB, is the only guy that would really ignite the fan base). At least I hope not because that would obviously be idiotic considering the overall lack of athleticism on the roster, especially on defense.

Just my two cents.

[THE ILK]

Different -

[Boblivius]

Trading down may be more likely than trading up. It depends on what happens when FA starts in March. The draft alone won't solve the immediate needs. Upgrading, via FA, could provide an opportunity for quick impact by signing one or two players. Assuming these FA signings occur, then they can choose the BPA @ 16. If unavailable, then trade down, get more picks to provide youth and depth.

[denden29]

I don’t understand why people think that if you trade back you’re mortgaging the present. The NFL is littered with all sorts of players contributing from all rounds. The fact is the 2012 Jets will increase their chance to be successful bringing in more bodies in 2012 draft. There are no guarantees that any drafted player works out but simple math will tell you if you draft 10 maybe 7 will make the roster, draft 5 you better hope all 5 make it , if two or three don’t work out your in trouble. For years and years the Jets have neglected volume in the draft and now the needs are great.

Trade back from 16 to about 26 the talent level is very close. Since the Jets have so many needs I’m sure they can find a very good prospect at 26. The Jets can use other later round picks to maneuver through the other rounds. If they like a player say in the 3^rd they will have the picks to go get him and still draft 9 or 10 players this year. I’m not advocating moving back and getting 20 6^th round picks but 16 is an attractive place and I’m sure they’ll be willing partners to go there. The extra picks will give the Jets some flexibility to try and get as many impact players as possible.

[Lupz27]

Disagree. There's not a chance that Tannenbaum trades back with an eye on the future. The guy knows he has to win immediately, so look for another desperation draft where he trades up trying to find the one or two players that might help him keep his job immediately. Trading back means you have confidence in your scouting department to find talent later on. This is not a hallmark of Tannenbaum's regime. Add to it the fact that it doesn't appear as though he'll have enough cap space to run around and plug holes with overpriced vets (to mask his inability to draft), and you can almost guarantee that this draft will end up being an all-or-nothing ****fest.

I agree, I just think it will be done like 08, stay put at 16, and move back into the 1st round trying to get 2 immediate impact players for 2012, I can see them drafting any number of positions in the 1st round, WR, RB, OL, OLB, ILB, S, and yes I can see a scenario where Rex is drooling at the mouth with the prospect of having Janoris Jenkins playing 1 side, and Revis on the other, if this were to happen it would have to coincide with the trade of Cro, or Wilson for a draft pick or part of a package to trade back into the 1st round.

[Jetscode1]

I agree, I just think it will be done like 08, stay put at 16, and move back into the 1st round trying to get 2 immediate impact players for 2012, I can see them drafting any number of positions in the 1st round, WR, RB, OL, OLB, ILB, S, and yes I can see a scenario where Rex is drooling at the mouth with the prospect of having Janoris Jenkins playing 1 side, and Revis on the other, if this were to happen it would have to coincide with the trade of Cro, or Wilson for a draft pick or part of a package to trade back into the 1st round.

You lose the change in any deal where you have to give away your surplus...too many needs to draft CB this year...

[Lupz27]

You lose the change in any deal where you have to give away your surplus...too many needs to draft CB this year...

I agree 100% but we all know how much Rex loves his CB's, if Tanny can get decent value for either Wilson, or Cro, I wouldn't be completely shocked, another scenario could be if they believe Wilson could play S, and justify the pick that way.

Just so you know I disagree with even touching a CB before RD 4, but like I said we all know Rex loves him some CB's.

[Jetscode1]

I agree 100% but we all know how much Rex loves his CB's, if Tanny can get decent value for either Wilson, or Cro, I wouldn't be completely shocked, another scenario could be if they believe Wilson could play S, and justify the pick that way.

Just so you know I disagree with even touching a CB before RD 4, but like I said we all know Rex loves him some CB's.

Needs to try a safety or two before he satiates his desires...no Ed Reed on this team.

[JonEJet]

Disagree. There's not a chance that Tannenbaum trades back with an eye on the future. The guy knows he has to win immediately, so look for another desperation draft where he trades up trying to find the one or two players that might help him keep his job immediately. Trading back means you have confidence in your scouting department to find talent later on. This is not a hallmark of Tannenbaum's regime. Add to it the fact that it doesn't appear as though he'll have enough cap space to run around and plug holes with overpriced vets (to mask his inability to draft), and you can almost guarantee that this draft will end up being an all-or-nothing ****fest.

So let me get this straight....You want immediate wins from the GM who you think should be canned from an 8-8 season. But, kill him if he decides to sit back and let the draft come to him without being aggressive and getting the players he wants?

I get it....you want it both ways...you want to eat your cake too, I get it

[sg3]

we should all remember that the great Parcells was the last Jet GM who loved trading back and as a result he passed on Orlando Pace's HOF NFL career at LT for some decent but not spectacular guys the first season and then traded down the second year to bring the Jets that famous HOFer Dorian Boose

Take a look at Beli's drafts since 2006..... All his multiple trading down and future drafting has pretty much yielded about one great player (Gronk) and a massive pile of whiffs

[RutgersJetFan]

Trading back's a cinch, teams are usually dying to trade up to that coveted 16 spot.

[Jared]

Take a look at Beli's drafts since 2006..... All his multiple trading down and future drafting has pretty much yielded about one great player (Gronk) and a massive pile of whiffs

Given your OL depth, I bet you wish Tanny had whiffed on Solder or Vollmer or Cannon.

[T0mShane]

So let me get this straight....You want immediate wins from the GM who you think should be canned from an 8-8 season. But, kill him if he decides to sit back and let the draft come to him without being aggressive and getting the players he wants?

I get it....you want it both ways...you want to eat your cake too, I get it

What I want to happen and what I think will happen are almost always two different things when talking about the Jets.

[jack48]

I think we stay where we are. I am not that up on the college guys. I actually find colege football sloppy and boring. But I think they have to use all their top picks. Say 1,2,3. After that they might trade up. And as bad as their offense is, they have to draft a pass rusher(unless they can sign one).....finally. The safety, from everything I have read, is not worth a 16, anyway. So I see a$$ rusher, safety, RT. After that? Crapshoot.

[denden29]

we should all remember that the great Parcells was the last Jet GM who loved trading back and as a result he passed on Orlando Pace's HOF NFL career at LT for some decent but not spectacular guys the first season and then traded down the second year to bring the Jets that famous HOFer Dorian Boose Take a look at Beli's drafts since 2006..... All his multiple trading down and future drafting has pretty much yielded about one great player (Gronk) and a massive pile of whiffs

Let’s deal with some facts the Jets have by far the least amount of draft picks over the last 5 years. On this forum the numerous holes are laid out very clearly and correctly. There has been a calling to become younger, faster and more athletic. Where are these players coming from? There is no way you’re going to fill all the cracks with just FA, you have to use the draft and that is probably not enough. The Jets are old slow and un-athletic lack playmakers and the defense has been neglected in the draft.

The problems were evident all year with the Jets roster but the fact is there was no one to replace Hunter or Smith so you’re stuck. No GM Parcells, Tanny or Coach Belichick, no one has a spotless resume they all swing and miss but when you draft so few players there is little margin for error. The Jets have gotten old fast and the team needs to be turned over even more than most. I do think Parcells brought in Ellis, Abraham and Pennington to the Jets they weren't so bad?

Let’s look at the Patriots since you brought them up. Here are some draft picks that are still on the team now from the last few years. 1^st Nate Solder, 1^st Devin McCourty, 2^nd Rob Gronkowski, 2^nd Brandon Spikes,4^th Aaron Hernandez, 2^nd Pat Chung, 2^nd Ron Brace, 2^nd Sebastian Volmer, 7^th Julian Edlema, 1^st Jerod Mayo, yes they traded back for him, 5^th Matt Slater. I didn’t mention all those on IR.

The fact is the patriots have 4 first day draft picks a ton of cap room and oh yeah I think they’re in the Super Bowl. How come the Patriots were able to lose their starting Pro Bowl center for the whole year and not miss a beat? If the Jets lost Nick Mangold for the season they would have won 3 games.

47 out of the 53 man roster of the Green Bay packers have never played for another team. I believe they won the Super Bowl last years and were 15-1 this year. That Farve pick we gave them worked out huh.

The Jets need more picks they have neglected the draft to long now. They are not in a position to be ultra aggressive. The hourglass is running out on this team time for some young blood. If you need some proof look at the 2006 Jets draft they had 10 picks that year and made some good ones. They know they needed to bring in that youth then and they do now. Just move back 6-10 spots in the first round get an extra player or two the Jets are going to need them.

[Jets62]

They need a stud S&RT, the rest WR,RB,CB,QB,OLB&so on could be had in FA&lower round picks. S is a must for this defense before anything else. Problem is who in this draft is that S& is he worth trading up,going against the philosophy of gaining more draft picks?

[Lupz27]

They need a stud S&RT, the rest WR,RB,CB,QB,OLB&so on could be had in FA&lower round picks. S is a must for this defense before anything else. Problem is who in this draft is that S& is he worth trading up,going against the philosophy of gaining more draft picks?

The top rated S is Mark Barron from Alabama, IMO he is at best a mid 2nd round talent, but because this is the worst S class in a long time he is being overrated, and will get picked mid to late 1st, I really hope the Jets stay away from him there is so many players talent wise at other positions that will get drafted after him, if your just making a draft board based on BAP throwing position out the window, I would rank Barron in the 50's or 60's.