'Ask Bitonti': JetNations resident Draft Guru

[gsnts725]

ideally? Jarvis Jones will show up day 1 and play ball. But he looks top 5ish to me. I'd happily take Mingo, Jordan or Jones on this D. Probably none will be there cause the league isn't dumb.

 

also like Corey Lemonier from Auburn but 9 is way reachy. The way this board is shaking out, there might not be a top OLB to take at 9. There are a bunch of other good linebacker prospects and hopefully the Barnes signing makes it less of a dire need. 

Damn. I was wishing one of these top pass rushers would be around. What you think about Star Lotulelei being a back up plan? Or will he not be there either despite his healthy concerns?

[bitonti]

Damn. I was wishing one of these top pass rushers would be around. What you think about Star Lotulelei being a back up plan? Or will he not be there either despite his healthy concerns?

 

Star is gonna work out tomorrow I believe so that question remains to be answered. The Jets did go DL the last 2 years so with or without Pouha/Devito they still have guys. 

 

 learned long ago It's not really about what you or I would do.

 

The new GM Idzik has been going with cheap (safe) options in FA and doesn't seem to be a wild risk taker. He doesn't seem like a guy who would draft a medical risk or some flashy skills guy. He's not gonna trade up. 

 

My gut is telling me  pass rusher is still plan A. No question they would take a pass rusher.  maybe they see Bjoern Werner as an option or Ansah... they could do that and if i were setting the vegas odds, DE would be 1-2. There's so many DE they could talk themselves into liking.  

 

but let's say they don't go pass rusher... last couple days I'm thinking plan B is probably Chance Warmack. It's a building block low risk pick. Guard is not ideal use of 9 pick but he is easily the safest pick who would prob be there (Buffalo could take him too). Dream scenario for Idzik is trade down. He probably has guys graded out in the rd 4/5 area he likes better than guys people are mocking the Jets at 9.  

[unbanmadmike1]

dude. Who the **** are u drafting? Lol . I feel like everytime I see one if your posts it's about someone you dislike.

Option one would be trading down but if they are sitting at 9 it's not a great spot. I don't like Mingo, I doubt that Jordon would be there for them at 9. I would probably go with Cooper or Warmack.

[T0mShane]

Idzik isn't drafting players for "Rex's system" or to fit in the WCO, because neither are likely to be around next year at this time.

[gsnts725]

Star is gonna work out tomorrow I believe so that question remains to be answered. The Jets did go DL the last 2 years so with or without Pouha/Devito they still have guys. 

 

 learned long ago It's not really about what you or I would do.

 

The new GM Idzik has been going with cheap (safe) options in FA and doesn't seem to be a wild risk taker. He doesn't seem like a guy who would draft a medical risk or some flashy skills guy. He's not gonna trade up. 

 

My gut is telling me  pass rusher is still plan A. No question they would take a pass rusher.  maybe they see Bjoern Werner as an option or Ansah... they could do that and if i were setting the vegas odds, DE would be 1-2. There's so many DE they could talk themselves into liking.  

 

but let's say they don't go pass rusher... last couple days I'm thinking plan B is probably Chance Warmack. It's a building block low risk pick. Guard is not ideal use of 9 pick but he is easily the safest pick who would prob be there (Buffalo could take him too). Dream scenario for Idzik is trade down. He probably has guys graded out in the rd 4/5 area he likes better than guys people are mocking the Jets at 9.  

alright cool. I really like Chance from what I've watched. The guy is a beast. So I wouldn't mind that pick at all even though o-line wasn't exactly the problem last year.

[bitonti]

Idzik isn't drafting players for "Rex's system" or to fit in the WCO, because neither are likely to be around next year at this time.

 

 

ok sure that's a fair point. Keep in mind that most projection is bullsh*t. I can't remember how many times a guy was slated to be a 3-4 guy and ended up in a 4-3. (Chris Long played his college career in a 3-4 at UVA). 

 

but im thinking more like risk level. so far Idzik has been low risk. He's gonna want guys who start early and they can build the team around. He wants to gamble later in the draft.

 

Early low risk picks it's usually about production not workouts. Guys like Jarvis, Chance (or 10 picks later Keenan, Tyler) you can't mess with their production. 

[T0mShane]

ok sure that's a fair point. Keep in mind that most projection is bullsh*t. I can't remember how many times a guy was slated to be a 3-4 guy and ended up in a 4-3. (Chris Long played his college career in a 3-4 at UVA).

but im thinking more like risk level. so far Idzik has been low risk. He's gonna want guys who start early and they can build the team around. He wants to gamble later in the draft.

Early low risk picks it's usually about production not workouts. Guys like Jarvis, Chance (or 10 picks later Keenan, Tyler) you can't mess with their production.

I agree with you, and I think the guy you're describing here would be Bjoern Werner--he fits the draft slot, he's not going to crash his Lamborghini into a crack den at 3 a.m., and he'll represent the team well.

[LionelRichie]

but let's say they don't go pass rusher... last couple days I'm thinking plan B is probably Chance Warmack. It's a building block low risk pick. Guard is not ideal use of 9 pick but he is easily the safest pick who would prob be there (Buffalo could take him too). Dream scenario for Idzik is trade down. He probably has guys graded out in the rd 4/5 area he likes better than guys people are mocking the Jets at 9.  

 

I think Warmack is a great pick.   I don't study the draft or college football but Warmack dominated the Championship game and pretty much had his way vs. the entire SEC.    The quickest way to rebuild the Offense is through the OL - as the OL has declined the last 2 years so have the Jets. 

 

several mock drafts I've seen have Warmack going to the Titans @ 10.   Any chance another team later in the draft would be willing to move up for Warmack or is Copper seen as a similar prospect?   

[Shadetree]

bitonti,

 

It has been a loooong time since I posted. I didnt read all 8 pages of this thread (actually, i didnt read any pages) but I want Ogletree. 

 

Am I nuts?

 

Shadetree

[SenorGato]

i would not take any WR that high in this draft.

 

 

 

 

Agreed with this one. I would take Eifert before I took any WR in this draft, though Allen is close when healthy. 

[unbanmadmike1]

SenorGato, on 19 Mar 2013 - 19:46, said:

Agreed with this one. I would take Eifert before I took any WR in this draft, though Allen is close when healthy.

Disagree on this. I'd take Patterson, Austin and Allen over Eifret but not until late in the first round. Eifret isn't a Graham/Gronk kind of TE. He's more of a Dennis Pitta or a Todd Heap.

[SenorGato]

Disagree on this. I'd take Patterson, Austin and Allen over Eifret but not until late in the first round. Eifret isn't a Graham/Gronk kind of TE. He's more of a Dennis Pitta or a Todd Heap.

 

He's bigger than both Pitta and Heap, and a young Todd Heap was a top TE anyway. I see him as a better pass catching prospect than Rudolph and similar to Gronkowski, minus the back injuries that sent him to the early 2nd. Prototypical size and with top athleticism, though agreed it's not on the Jimmy Graham or Vernon Davis level. 

[unbanmadmike1]

SenorGato, on 19 Mar 2013 - 20:04, said:

He's bigger than both Pitta and Heap, and a young Todd Heap was a top TE anyway. I see him as a better pass catching prospect than Rudolph and similar to Gronkowski, minus the back injuries that sent him to the early 2nd. Prototypical size and with top athleticism, though agreed it's not on the Jimmy Graham or Vernon Davis level.

If you're drafting a TE in the first round he better be Graham or Gronk.

[SenorGato]

If you're drafting a TE in the first round he better be Graham or Gronk.

Same size as Gronkowski, same 40, same bench, better health, similar or better competition, more passes caught, more games played...

[Larz]

bit

 

kudos for putting your ideas out there among this den of hyenas...lol

 

 I enjoy your stuff.  I watch 3 college football games a year, so I am totally in the dark on these guys

[#27TheDominator]

Idzik isn't drafting players for "Rex's system" or to fit in the WCO, because neither are likely to be around next year at this time.

 

I'm not so sure, hater.  Rex may well not be around and Mornhinweg also might be gone, but they just hired the ******* guy. Even if they fire Mornhinweg it would make sense that he is running the style of offense that they plan to run going forward.  The only reason to think this might be the case is that it seems like they hired Mornhinweg before they hired Idzik   That was a typically strange Jets timeline.

[T0mShane]

I'm not so sure, hater.  Rex may well not be around and Mornhinweg also might be gone, but they just hired the ******* guy. Even if they fire Mornhinweg it would make sense that he is running the style of offense that they plan to run going forward.  The only reason to think this might be the case is that it seems like they hired Mornhinweg before they hired Idzik   That was a typically strange Jets timeline.

 

Hate or not, it would behoove Idzik to draft scheme-versatile players in the un/likely event that Rex gets fired.

[SenorGato]

Hate or not, it would behoove Idzik to draft scheme-versatile players in the un/likely event that Rex gets fired.

 

Yeah, that's why he should draft scheme versatile (see: good) players.

[T0mShane]

Yeah, that's why he should draft scheme versatile (see: good) players.

 

 

Meaning, Rex or Mornhinweg don't get to break a tie between two OLB's or two WR's if it's close, because Idzik is the one who has to live with that choice two, three, five years from now when Rex is the DC in Arizona and Mornhinweg is running a QB camp in Sante Fe.

[bitonti]

I think Warmack is a great pick.   I don't study the draft or college football but Warmack dominated the Championship game and pretty much had his way vs. the entire SEC.    The quickest way to rebuild the Offense is through the OL - as the OL has declined the last 2 years so have the Jets. 

 

several mock drafts I've seen have Warmack going to the Titans @ 10.   Any chance another team later in the draft would be willing to move up for Warmack or is Copper seen as a similar prospect?   

 

 

Titans are unlikely to go OG as they splashed big money at Andy Levitre. The Bills lost Levitre and pick 8 so it's possible they reload with chance. 

 

 

would support a bjoern werner pick, even tho he's not a true fit for the D, he's a player. 

[bitonti]

bitonti,

 

It has been a loooong time since I posted. I didnt read all 8 pages of this thread (actually, i didnt read any pages) but I want Ogletree. 

 

Am I nuts?

 

Shadetree

 

 

i dont think that's crazy. Ogletree is a great player. and Seattle did take Bruce Irvin even tho he _just_ got arrested. They are looking at value. Olgetree in rd 2/3 would be good value. 

[Matt39]

If Jones isnt there, I'd go with either guard the Jets like better. Assuming Geno isnt there too,

 

I wouldnt mind Tavon Austin either. 

[T0mShane]

If Jones isnt there, I'd go with either guard the Jets like better. Assuming Geno isnt there too,

 

I wouldnt mind Tavon Austin either. 

 

 

I was just reading Greg Cosell (the guy who warned us all that Sanchez was garbage) about Austin. He thinks Austin merits attention as a top-ten pick because he's Harvin-y. It would be a ballsy move by Idzik.

[Matt39]

I was just reading Greg Cosell (the guy who warned us all that Sanchez was garbage) about Austin. He thinks Austin merits attention as a top-ten pick because he's Harvin-y. It would be a ballsy move by Idzik.

 

I just saw that too and I've been thinking the same thing(i swear)

 

God knows the Jets need players who can provide big plays. If he busts though that's a huge miss in your first draft. It'd be a very ballsy move. But he'd immediately be a guy you get the ball and your PR/KR specialist. 

 

We drafted Santana Moss early and in his prime he was a damn good player. Stupid Pennington.

[CrazyCarl40]

Bit: How far will the franchise be set back if they take one of these awful, terrible QBs at 9?

[SenorGato]

Meaning, Rex or Mornhinweg don't get to break a tie between two OLB's or two WR's if it's close, because Idzik is the one who has to live with that choice two, three, five years from now when Rex is the DC in Arizona and Mornhinweg is running a QB camp in Sante Fe.

 

They shouldn't be breaking any ties. Neither are scouts or the GM. Maybe they offer an opinion, but those are late career Belichick and Parcells privileges, and probably does not appeal to Rex. I doubt there are any more than a handful of HC's who track the draft with GMs and play a big part of who is draft. I certainly wouldn't expect it Hot Coordinator to come in and take over the draft either. Idzik would be a sh*t GM hire if he considered listening to Rex's, Hot Coordinator's, or MM's opinion in the draft to break a tie or ignore them completely. 

[T0mShane]

I just saw that too and I've been thinking the same thing(i swear)

 

God knows the Jets need players who can provide big plays. If he busts though that's a huge miss in your first draft. It'd be a very ballsy move. But he'd immediately be a guy you get the ball and your PR/KR specialist. 

 

We drafted Santana Moss early and in his prime he was a damn good player. Stupid Pennington.

 

If the Revis thing happens, Idzik could go safe on one pick (a guard) and gamble like hell on Austin. I'd just be terrified of drafting a player that tiny with that pick. Moss was perpetually hurt here. Sometimes it takes awhile for these tiny dudes to physically mature.

[T0mShane]

They shouldn't be breaking any ties. Neither are scouts or the GM. Maybe they offer an opinion, but those are late career Belichick and Parcells privileges, and probably does not appeal to Rex. I doubt there are any more than a handful of HC's who track the draft with GMs and play a big part of who is draft. I certainly wouldn't expect it Hot Coordinator to come in and take over the draft either. Idzik would be a sh*t GM hire if he considered listening to Rex's, Hot Coordinator's, or MM's opinion in the draft to break a tie or ignore them completely. 

 

We just spent the better part of seven years with a GM who appealed to his coaches to give voice to player selection. Or do you think Tannenbaum just arbitrarily stopped drafting and signing Boy Scouts when Mangini was fired?

[bitonti]

I just saw that too and I've been thinking the same thing(i swear)

 

God knows the Jets need players who can provide big plays. If he busts though that's a huge miss in your first draft. It'd be a very ballsy move. But he'd immediately be a guy you get the ball and your PR/KR specialist. 

 

We drafted Santana Moss early and in his prime he was a damn good player. Stupid Pennington.

 

the bad scenario is a ted ginn jr type of pick. Austin is a much better prospect character wise than Ted but he's also several inches smaller. 

 

it's funny how we have the Jets considering returners and guards in the top 10. is this really happening? 

[Matt39]

the bad scenario is a ted ginn jr type of pick. Austin is a much better prospect character wise than Ted but he's also several inches smaller. 

 

it's funny how we have the Jets considering returners and guards in the top 10. is this really happening? 

 

we're in no mans land unfortunately.

[T0mShane]

the bad scenario is a ted ginn jr type of pick. Austin is a much better prospect character wise than Ted but he's also several inches smaller. 

 

it's funny how we have the Jets considering returners and guards in the top 10. is this really happening? 

 

We're making the bed for the QB to be named later.

[bitonti]

Bit: How far will the franchise be set back if they take one of these awful, terrible QBs at 9?

 

 

it's not something that keeps me up at night. Idzik seems to be level headed and there's a fairly decent chance Geno is gone by 9. Barkley could be too as unlikely as that sounds. 

[SenorGato]

We just spent the better part of seven years with a GM who appealed to his coaches to give voice to player selection. Or do you think Tannenbaum just arbitrarily stopped drafting and signing Boy Scouts when Mangini was fired?

 

The Ravens and Seahawks have a very similar approach to the draft - size and speed. The Jets have been all about that over the past two drafts with Willkerson, Ellis, Coples, Davis, Hill, Bush, Allen. Supposedly the Seahawks beat the Jets to drafting Irvin...Maybe they just happen to have a similar philosophy on how to approach the draft. He'll definitely want to hear Rex's opinion on defensive talent, he would be stupid not to and probably hurting The Future either way as Rex's D is all about versatility. 

[T0mShane]

The Ravens and Seahawks have a very similar approach to the draft - size and speed. The Jets have been all about that over the past two drafts with Willkerson, Ellis, Coples, Davis, Hill, Bush, Allen. Supposedly the Seahawks beat the Jets to drafting Irvin...Maybe they just happen to have a similar philosophy on how to approach the draft. He'll definitely want to hear Rex's opinion on defensive talent, he would be stupid not to and probably hurting The Future either way as Rex's D is all about versatility. 

 

 

Yeah. That's why they should draft players with size and speed.

[T0mShane]

the bad scenario is a ted ginn jr type of pick. Austin is a much better prospect character wise than Ted but he's also several inches smaller. 

 

it's funny how we have the Jets considering returners and guards in the top 10. is this really happening? 

 

 

I saw a mock draft with Smith, Barkley, and Nassib all going Top Ten. It sounds dumb now, but it's not implausible if Marrone has a hard-on for Nassib and some team thinks they're sneaky with Barkley, whom a lot of people penciled in at first overall a year ago.