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Potential trade-down scenarios


LionelRichie

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It's easy as a fan to say "trade down and add pick".  In practice it can be more difficult to find a trade partner willing to make the deal.   

 

I don't know who has what needs behind the Jets but it seems like some team may want to get in front of San Diego for the last LT (maybe NO?).   St Louis has extra picks and desperately needs WR's....

 

What are the realistic options for the Jets to move down in the draft and add picks?     What can they get in return for #9?  

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If you google draft value chart, you'll get a couple different links with the same information...so it would appear this is about as updated as there is...per Draft Countdown, a pretty good draft site imo, fwiw. \

 

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

 

...as far as who to trade with, just have fun guessing the different scenarios dude. 

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I dont think the Jets are in a good place to trade down. Presumably the target would be Geno Smith. But if he's there at 9, teams can wait until the 20's to take him. 

 

Like the Jets could have waited until the teens to draft Sanchez?

 

The team that wants him isn't going to gamble on missing their future QB if they really think he's the guy.

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A lot many strange, logic defying scenarios and picks have been made on draft day. So the strange things that can happen on draft day that can help the JETS trade down.

 

1. Bears try to move up to the 9th pick and draft Geno.

2. If the Revis trade does not happen and one of the Top 2 CB's on the draft depth chart is available i can see Tampa Bay Bucs trying to move up for the 9th pick.

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Like the Jets could have waited until the teens to draft Sanchez?

 

The team that wants him isn't going to gamble on missing their future QB if they really think he's the guy.

 

If someone wants to trade up for Geno, they'll look to get ahead of the Bills. Once he gets to the Jets' pick, he'll slide quite a bit if they pass on him.

 

But teams can fall in love with anyone. If the last pass rusher or WR a team likes in the first round goes with the 8th pick, someone could want to get into the Jets' slot.

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all the things that happened this month with top 10 teams securing QBs leads to 1 of 2 conclusions 

 

1) The Jags are taking Geno and everyone knows it 

2) No one wants any part of this guy in the first 20 picks. 

 

neither of these conclusions is good news for the Jets trade down market. 

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all the things that happened this month with top 10 teams securing QBs leads to 1 of 2 conclusions

1) The Jags are taking Geno and everyone knows it

2) No one wants any part of this guy in the first 20 picks.

neither of these conclusions is good news for the Jets trade down market.

Teams could still decide they want to trade up for Lane Johnson, DJ Fluker, Xavier Rhodes, etc. There will be players at 9 that teams in the lower third will want. If the Jets pass on Geno, someone will trade back up to grab him in the low teens. The Niners and Pats are heavily rumored to be interested in getting higher picks in the first. Could be a wild day.

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Teams could still decide they want to trade up for Lane Johnson, DJ Fluker, Xavier Rhodes, etc. There will be players at 9 that teams in the lower third will want. If the Jets pass on Geno, someone will trade back up to grab him in the low teens. The Niners and Pats are heavily rumored to be interested in getting higher picks in the first. Could be a wild day.

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised.  The patriots used one of their in-house visits on Dion Jordan, who has absolutely zero chance of falling out of the top ten, so it's hard to believe they'd simply just waste one of their visits for the hell of it.  Not saying they'll move up for Jordan, as it would take a haul to move up that far, but ever since the new CBA, we've seen a lot of trades happen and I expect this year to be no different.

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Wouldn't be surprised.  The patriots used one of their in-house visits on Dion Jordan, who has absolutely zero chance of falling out of the top ten, so it's hard to believe they'd simply just waste one of their visits for the hell of it.  Not saying they'll move up for Jordan, as it would take a haul to move up that far, but ever since the new CBA, we've seen a lot of trades happen and I expect this year to be no different.

some folks who have left Pats have said one of Belichicks two favorite things to do around draft time is: 1) Have guys in to visit who they think blow to make a rival draft them and 2) send scouts to ProDays etc to see the same guys they have zero intention of drafting to drive up interest amongst other teams cause 'The Pats' are interested, LOL..They do this especially to in Division teams,,

Remember, Pats sent a few scouts at last minute to work out Gholston,,it was rumored to be  a ploy to get Jets to draft him (which we did, LOL)

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some folks who have left Pats have said one of Belichicks two favorite things to do around draft time is: 1) Have guys in to visit who they think blow to make a rival draft them and 2) send scouts to ProDays etc to see the same guys they have zero intention of drafting to drive up interest amongst other teams cause 'The Pats' are interested, LOL..They do this especially to in Division teams,,

Remember, Pats sent a few scouts at last minute to work out Gholston,,it was rumored to be a ploy to get Jets to draft him (which we did, LOL)

I could see them showing interest in Jordan, moving up, then drafting someone else (Tavon Austin?) that they're worried about getting trumped on.

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Teams could still decide they want to trade up for Lane Johnson, DJ Fluker, Xavier Rhodes, etc. There will be players at 9 that teams in the lower third will want. If the Jets pass on Geno, someone will trade back up to grab him in the low teens. The Niners and Pats are heavily rumored to be interested in getting higher picks in the first. Could be a wild day.

 

If the top 2 LT's go early then anyone who wants Johnson will likely have to move up ahead of San Diego and Miami to get him.  

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the Lane Johnson market is a possibility but there's also a scenario where 3 OT are gone by 8 pick. But i will grant that if Miami wants Lane Johnson, the Jets could squeeze a mid round pick out of em. Maybe. Its only 3 slots. 

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Stranger things have happened on draft day so i would not completely rule out JETS being able to trade down. And you always the beginner's luck for a new GM. That's all i can do to paint the picture positively!

 

Very true. What if the words circle that Cards or Bills want to take Geno while Jets are secretively super high on him?

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I could see them showing interest in Jordan, moving up, then drafting someone else (Tavon Austin?) that they're worried about getting trumped on.

 

 

If the Pats cut us for either of those two and we end up with a guard I will drown myself in the nearest public restroom.

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  It's nice to trade down, but you also have to get value of the trading down.  Great somebody falls in love with Geno, trades the 20th pick and some 3rd rounder for #9.     History shows that something like 60 percent of draft day trades are two for ones.   Trade your #9 pick for a lower first round, plus probably a 3rd or 4th round pick.       

 

 If you look at the history of teams trading picks around 8-11 over the years,    you get : 

 

1993 Broncos trade #14, 83 for  Browns #11

Players became (Steve Everitt, Mike Caldwell)  for Dan Williams.

 

1995 Browns traded Eric Metcalf, #26 to for Falcons #10.

         49ers traded #30, 94, 119, and 1996 1st round pick (#26) for Browns #10.

So Players beame
Browns  (Craig Powell, Mike Frederick, Dave Barr, Ray Lewis).

Falcons (Eric Metcalf, Devin Bush)

49ers ( JJ Stokes)

 

1996 Raiders trade their 17, 48, 109   For Houston Oilers #9.    

Players became (Reggie Brown, Jason Layman, Jon Runyon)  for Rickey Dudley.

 

2000 Ravens trade their #15, 45 for Broncos #10.

Players became  (Deltha O'Neal, Kenoy Kennedy) for Travis Taylor.

 

2006 Broncos trade #15, 68 for Rams #11

Players became (Tye Hill, Claude Wroten) for Jay Cutler

 

2006 Ravens traded #13, 181 for Browns #12.

Players became (Kamerion Wimbley, Babatunded Oshinowo) for Haloti Ngata.

 

2008 Jaguars traded #26, 71, 89 125 for Ravens #8

Players became (Duane Brown, Tavares Gooden, Steve Slaton, Arman Shields) for Derrick Harvey.

 

2008 Patriots traded #7, 164 for Saints #10, 78

Players became (Sedrick Ellis, Carl Nicks) for Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable)

 

2011 Jaguars traded #16, 49 for Redskins #10

players became (Ryan Kerrigan, Ben Ijalana) for Blaine Gabbert

 

2012 Jaguars traded #7, 101 for Bucs #5

Players became (Mark Barron, Omar Bolden) for Justin Blackmon

 

2012 Eagles traded #15, 114, 172 for Seahawks #12

Players became (Bruce Irvin, Jaye Howard, Jeremy Lane) for Fletcher Cox)

 

 

 

   It all becomes more about what the Jets do with those picks, compared to just hoping you trade the #9 for #13 and some 3rd rounder.

Unless they get lucky and trade with some dumb GM.

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