oc_jet Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 All the activity has died down, so I thought this is a decent assessment of how these pieces might fit together. http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/3/14/8214617/will-the-jets-play-a-nickel-base-defense I think it is safe to say Todd Bowles likes defensive backs. He was a defensive back when he played. When he started coaching, he coached the secondary. Last year in Arizona, he made extensive use of packages with extra defensive backs on the field. I keep seeing people say Arizona lined up in a nickel package 70% of the time. I can't find where anybody found that figure, but I would believe it from looking at what the Cardinals did defensively last season. I was wondering whether Bowles would do similar things with the Jets. It did seem possible that Arizona only handled things that way out of necessity because the Cardinals suffered so many losses to other parts of their defense. I think the Jets' spending spree in the secondary, making significant investments in four players, might end that question. There is this idea that teams either run a 3-4 defense or a 4-3 defense. That isn't necessarily the case in today's NFL, though. Teams are constantly getting more creative and flexible. For example, a lot of people said that Rex Ryan was a 3-4 coach. There is some element of truth to that. The Jets did run traditional 3-4 sets. They also did a lot of other stuff. Take the year 2012. That season the Jets lined up in a 3-4 front more often than any other front according to the Football Outsiders 2013 season preview. They only lined up in a 3-4 25% of the time. That means they weren't 3-4 on three out of every four plays. I have seen a few people questioning the Jets paying Buster Skrine so much money. Some people wonder whether he is worth the money based on his talent and track record. That is a legitimate concern, but I am not going to address it here. What I would like to address are the people questioning paying that kind of money to a number three cornerback. A contract around $6 million per year seems exorbitant for a nickel corner. It sure does in the conventional use of the term. That's the guy who only comes onto the field on passing downs when the offense brings an extra receiver out. The idea is that he's a part-time player because the team runs a 4-3 or a 3-4 defense. What if the nickel guy isn't a part-time player, though? The NFL is changing. You hear about how the passing game keeps becoming more and more important because of rule changes, and it is true. This is now a league where well over half the teams play over half their snaps with three or more receivers. The nickel is becoming more and more important. On a team like the Jets, the nickel might just be a full-time player. A contract around $6 million per year isn't necessarily over the top for a full-time player, and that is what Skrine might very well be. The NFL becoming more of a passing league has to do with this, but there are other more Jets-specific reasons to think the Jets will be a full-time nickel team. There are three very big reasons in the trenches, Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison, and Sheldon Richardson. On their defensive line, the Jets have three top notch defenders against the run. The defensive line has turned the run defense into a big strength. It is such a big strength that maybe the Jets can take a linebacker off the field and use an extra defensive back to make the pass defense better. The three guys up front are so good against the run that they can handle an outsized part of the run stopping load. Isn't the whole point of having a major strength to be able to deploy less resources in that area and provide reinforcements in another? Having such a strong run front gives the Jets the option to send more resources to defend the pass. That might mean playing five defensive backs on close to every snap. Ultimately, a large part of the Jets' success will come down to whether their player evaluations were correct. It is also really important to understand the kind of team you want to build, though. You need to understand the roles that need to be filled and the skills your players need to have in order to utilize resources properly. The jury will be out for a while whether this new regime has what it takes to build a winner, but I understand what they are trying to do. I also see a real plan in place and the general manager and head coach on the same page. It looks like they wanted to beef up on the secondary and commit extra resources to defending the pass. The trends of the NFL and the talent on the defensive front allow them to commit less to the run. With this in mind, we might see the Jets become a full-time nickel team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 ...With this in mind, we might see the Jets become a full-time nickel team. It's right there at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRL Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 After watching ARZ the past two years I don't think we'll be a base anything defense. When Bowles was in ARZ he changed his defense based on the opponent. So when they played SEA, Bowles played 3-4 and 4-3 looks with "big bodies" to stop Lynch and their running game. But when they played PHI, Bowles played the whole game in nickel and dime looks and he replaced all of his LB's with secondary players to stop Kelly's high speed spread. Thankfully Bowles has shown he's not stubborn unlike Ryan who would stay in his base personnel which led to Harris covering Golden Tate as we saw in the DET game last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio State NY Jets fan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I hope to see more CB Blitz packages and fewer LB's covering TE's and dwarf speedy WR's Big nickel http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000375711/article/big-nickel-package-emerging-as-nfls-hottest-defensive-trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Which makes me wonder why Harris got the extension. You want to bring him back as a situational run-stopper, fine by me. But not for $7M+ per season and $15M guaranteed. Maybe we try to trade him at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetdawgg Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Harris is holding the fort until there is a replacement for him. To move him now makes a new hole to fill with another unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prime21 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The more corners on the field the more teams may want to run the ball . Harris is definitely needed for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oc_jet Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think this all relates back to the "Is Bowles an Innovator" thread. What we know of Todd Bowles thus far is that he has a knack for taking the strengths of his players and designing his defense around them. What is becoming apparent to me is that he is also trying to stay one step ahead of most offenses by designing his defense to be: Be balanced so that he can counter both runs and passes with virtually the same personnel group. Be unpredictable so that the defense becomes harder to effectively counter. Able to match the two tight end sets and the 3-4 WR sets now in vogue, with a deep and talented secondary. The existing front seven is perfect for his defense as they consistently excel at stuffing the run. It also seems like he and Maccagnan are on the same page, given the personnel they have acquired. All of the pieces are versatile and experienced players who excel at a couple of things. Now the JETS can stuff the run, lock down the #1 and #2 WRs and put talented DBs and Safetys on the slot, the TE and the dump-off RB. This should lead to more coverage sacks. This defense should also increase the probability for sacks from blitzes. If the GM can draft or sign in free agency a terrorizing pass rush threat, this defense has the potential to be legendary. It should have few holes if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 After watching ARZ the past two years I don't think we'll be a base anything defense. When Bowles was in ARZ he changed his defense based on the opponent. So when they played SEA, Bowles played 3-4 and 4-3 looks with "big bodies" to stop Lynch and their running game. But when they played PHI, Bowles played the whole game in nickel and dime looks and he replaced all of his LB's with secondary players to stop Kelly's high speed spread. Thankfully Bowles has shown he's not stubborn unlike Ryan who would stay in his base personnel which led to Harris covering Golden Tate as we saw in the DET game last year I'm incredibly happy with where we are now as a team with a stable front office, and I agree with your views on our owner and front office. I think Rex should have been fired before the Pitt game and said so multiple times on JI, and am happy with last years asst coach of the year and an "NFL" guy through and through as our GM. However, strictly for academic purposes, it should be pointed out that the article you're talking about explicitly states that under Rex, the Jets defense went from being the team with the most 3-4 snaps in the NFL to being in the 3-4 only 25% of the time in just one year. Not sure that constitutes as stubbornness or an inability to change/evolve. Sounds more like sour grapes and an inability to look ahead without keeping one eye in the rear view. Sure, you referenced the Detroit example, but I'm 100% positive if you look through the every defensive snap on the Cardinals "tape" under Bowles, you'll find a mismatch exploited by an opposing offense. I guess I'm just not sure why you feel the need to make mention of Rex to point out his already glaring flaws at the end of all of your generally well articulated and insightful posts. The Jets have moved on from him. Maybe get on that bandwagon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 After watching ARZ the past two years I don't think we'll be a base anything defense. When Bowles was in ARZ he changed his defense based on the opponent. So when they played SEA, Bowles played 3-4 and 4-3 looks with "big bodies" to stop Lynch and their running game. But when they played PHI, Bowles played the whole game in nickel and dime looks and he replaced all of his LB's with secondary players to stop Kelly's high speed spread. Thankfully Bowles has shown he's not stubborn unlike Ryan who would stay in his base personnel which led to Harris covering Golden Tate as we saw in the DET game last year This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The more corners on the field the more teams may want to run the ball . Harris is definitely needed for that. I think this all relates back to the "Is Bowles an Innovator" thread. What we know of Todd Bowles thus far is that he has a knack for taking the strengths of his players and designing his defense around them. What is becoming apparent to me is that he is also trying to stay one step ahead of most offenses by designing his defense to be: Be balanced so that he can counter both runs and passes with virtually the same personnel group. Be unpredictable so that the defense becomes harder to effectively counter. Able to match the two tight end sets and the 3-4 WR sets now in vogue, with a deep and talented secondary. The existing front seven is perfect for his defense as they consistently excel at stuffing the run. It also seems like he and Maccagnan are on the same page, given the personnel they have acquired. All of the pieces are versatile and experienced players who excel at a couple of things. Now the JETS can stuff the run, lock down the #1 and #2 WRs and put talented DBs and Safetys on the slot, the TE and the dump-off RB. This should lead to more coverage sacks. This defense should also increase the probability for sacks from blitzes. If the GM can draft or sign in free agency a terrorizing pass rush threat, this defense has the potential to be legendary. It should have few holes if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I'm incredibly happy with where we are now as a team with a stable front office, and I agree with your views on our owner and front office. I think Rex should have been fired before the Pitt game and said so multiple times on JI, and am happy with last years asst coach of the year and an "NFL" guy through and through as our GM. However, strictly for academic purposes, it should be pointed out that the article you're talking about explicitly states that under Rex, the Jets defense went from being the team with the most 3-4 snaps in the NFL to being in the 3-4 only 25% of the time in just one year. Not sure that constitutes as stubbornness or an inability to change/evolve. Sounds more like sour grapes and an inability to look ahead without keeping one eye in the rear view. Sure, you referenced the Detroit example, but I'm 100% positive if you look through the every defensive snap on the Cardinals "tape" under Bowles, you'll find a mismatch exploited by an opposing offense. I guess I'm just not sure why you feel the need to make mention of Rex to point out his already glaring flaws at the end of all of your generally well articulated and insightful posts. The Jets have moved on from him. Maybe get on that bandwagon? If he thinks that's the best way to make his point, get over it. Maybe ignore that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 If he thinks that's the best way to make his point, get over it. Maybe ignore that part. Preacher preacher, fifth grade teacher, you can't reach me, my mom can't neither! Or, I have ignored it since we moved on from Rex back in 2014. Just wondering when I can stop ignoring posts from a poster I've generally enjoyed reading for the better part of 4 or 5 years. The two other posts I quoted did a fantastic job of making their points while keeping their eyes strictly ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Scheme will be based on the opposing offense, down, distance and personnel. There's no base anything anymore. Wish people would stop worrying about it. Also, the base is usually disguised pre snap....i.e. assignment, not alignment. I've read a lot of articles on Bowles at this point and it seems he has no preference and will base his schemes on personnel skills. Makes sense as the NFL becomes a more passing league he uses more DBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 The best part from what I've read and heard about Bowles is he's willing to adapt. He'll use what's given to him based on the skill set around him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Straw Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 When #3 WR's like Jeremy Kerley make $5 million/year, it's not unreasonable to pay the guy responsible for covering him (a nickel CB) $6 million/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oc_jet Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Scheme will be based on the opposing offense, down, distance and personnel. There's no base anything anymore. Wish people would stop worrying about it. Also, the base is usually disguised pre snap....i.e. assignment, not alignment. Agreed. That said, I think the real point of this article is to say that what Bowles is doing is something beyond what most others are generally doing. There have been two classes of defense for years - the 4-3 and the 3-4. The majority of snaps came in those formations. Now as a standard formation our HC has evolved and made a sub package his standard because it works against the modern day offenses. Within 2 years this is where the NFL will be, given its copycat nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ex-Rex Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think the Jets defense will be whatever the offensive set dictates. If they have four WR's it only makes sense to match that with a nickel base. If they are in a power set then you bring a LB back in for that. Just makes sense. Can't simply say the Jets will be a base nickel team team. Too oversimplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Preacher preacher, fifth grade teacher, you can't reach me, my mom can't neither! Or, I have ignored it since we moved on from Rex back in 2014. Just wondering when I can stop ignoring posts from a poster I've generally enjoyed reading for the better part of 4 or 5 years. The two other posts I quoted did a fantastic job of making their points while keeping their eyes strictly ahead. Nobody cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Nobody cares. Two posts addressing someone and something that had nothing to do with you? You clearly care. More than KRL, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Two posts addressing someone and something that had nothing to do with you? You clearly care. More than KRL, actually. I care so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I care so much. So you're nobody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 So you're nobody. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Yup. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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