Deflagate Will Have MAJOR impact on NE's level of play this year

[ljr]

Yeah..... 4 SBs later the JETS will take him out. That's all we have?

The best outcome is that Brady's rep is tarnished slightly. When he gets in the HOF, there may be a mention of this. maybe.

Bottom line, he is a great, possibly greatest QB ever and it sucked for us.

And a cheater brother!

Where's my respect ghost?

[EM31]

It is like having as family member who comes for Thanksgiving and Christmas but who steals things from out of your house.  Now what?  Then add as a defense that you are responsible for the security of your house.  Having the NFL defend themselves against intentional deflation is like having to hire security for your house during the holidays

 

And Patriots fans seem to not understand why the rest of the "full 32" does not like their team.

[j4jets]

You;re asking a question that I cannot answer cause i didn't do it. I agree their play will remain the same, I do not think statistically anything is gonna be any different. A lot of you are blinded by your hate to think this issue really made a significant difference. I'm hearing countless people come out now and state how this will not impact the pats in ways some jets fans(and the author of this article) feel it will.

at the end of the day beat em' and you won't be so bitter at their success. (that's not directed toward anyone in particular) and save the "well if they dont cheat blah blah.."

And if it didn't make a difference, do you think Shady Brady would risk his legacy doing so?

[j4jets]

Yes, and it also shows a precipitous drop at the point that the Patriots replaced Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown's corpse with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, giving rise to the pass-heavy offense the Patriots have had ever since. So it will be interesting to see what the next few seasons will show.

Pass heavy of run heavy, what difference does that make to the calculation of fumbles per play? I'm assuming you don't think WRs/TEs fumble. Your theory is invalid.

[j4jets]

Objective analysis of the data in the Wells Report does not show significant deflation, yet the Pats' fumble rate is statistically significantly lower than normal. We can therefore fairly safely assume that something the Patriots do causes them to fumble less, but jumping to the conclusion that it has to be illegal ball deflation is not supported by the statistics. There is also the wear that is intentionally put on the pigskin to make it easier to grip. Perhaps the Patriots' equipment guys are better at that than the other teams'. Ultimately, the data from this next season and the new NFL ball handling/measuring procedures will probably shed a lot more light on this. I would like to think that my team isn't cheating, but I wouldn't be surprised by either an innocent or a nefarious explanation of the situation.

Given that teams like the Chargers, Vikings, and Panthers essentially got slaps on the wrist for confirmed behavior that is just as illegal as deflation, the large fine and confiscation of draft picks from the Patriots for unconfirmed allegations was out of line and I'm still pissed at Kraft for accepting it. The suspension of Brady is totally without precedent and should be thrown out, but I don't know how much faith I have in that given the CBA the NFLPA negotiated.

So Josh Gordon smoked a little weed n now is out for the season. What happened to just a 4 game suspension?? Oh yeah, the 2nd time offender rule! Wasn't spy gate a proven cheat? Wasn't Brady part of it as much as BB? Maybe he didn't orchestrate it, but he knew what was happening and played his own part to take advantage of that system. Repeat offender, sir. Sean Peyton was banned for a season for letting his DC dictate how tough tackling he wanted the D to do. There are players on every team that give zero ****s if they injure another player, but good lord if NFL raises an eyebrow at Brady n Kraft.

Kraft n Goodell are or were best buddies. Goodell has now twice told Pats to "stfu n take it like man" on deflate gate. Must be a reason he's pissed. Probably cuz the 31 other owners want Pats to receive appropriate punishment this time around and not burn any tapes (spygate).

[AFCEastFan]

Pass heavy of run heavy, what difference does that make to the calculation of fumbles per play? I'm assuming you don't think WRs/TEs fumble. Your theory is invalid.

 

It's not exactly "my" theory.

 

http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710

 

At this point, an intelligent reader should pick up on one issue with the author's metric. The team sharing the 'suspiciously high plays-per-fumble rate' mantle with the Patriots is none other than the Peyton Manning quarterbacked Indianapolis Colts.

 

Why does this matter?

 

Because, Manning and Brady are generally among the quickest in football at getting rid of the ball when dropping back to throw. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Manning led the league in time-to-throw in 2014, at a lightning-quick 2.24 seconds. Brady finished 3rd in 2014, and also ranked 3rd, 1st, and 4th between 2011 and 2013 (PFF stats only go as far back as 2011). Even better, Brady also posted the league's lowest sack-per-dropback rate in 2014.

 

It's not a great strategy to penalize Brady and the Patriots for a lack of fumbles when there was a lower chance of fumbling to begin with, based on the team's play-calling and personnel that yield quick throws and incompletions, as well as fewer sacks.

[j4jets]

It's not exactly "my" theory.

http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710

At this point, an intelligent reader should pick up on one issue with the author's metric. The team sharing the 'suspiciously high plays-per-fumble rate' mantle with the Patriots is none other than the Peyton Manning quarterbacked Indianapolis Colts.

Why does this matter?

Because, Manning and Brady are generally among the quickest in football at getting rid of the ball when dropping back to throw. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Manning led the league in time-to-throw in 2014, at a lightning-quick 2.24 seconds. Brady finished 3rd in 2014, and also ranked 3rd, 1st, and 4th between 2011 and 2013 (PFF stats only go as far back as 2011). Even better, Brady also posted the league's lowest sack-per-dropback rate in 2014.

It's not a great strategy to penalize Brady and the Patriots for a lack of fumbles when there was a lower chance of fumbling to begin with, based on the team's play-calling and personnel that yield quick throws and incompletions, as well as fewer sacks.

1. I highly doubt Brady was penalized for lower frequency of fumbles. I think it had something to do with air.

2. He's averaged more sacks per game in the last 4 years as opposed to the 9 years he's started 16 games before that. Funny how quick releases haven't helped that.

First 9 years : 19.3 attempts per sack

Last 4 years : 20.4 attempts per sack

[AFCEastFan]

1. I highly doubt Brady was penalized for lower frequency of fumbles. I think it had something to do with air.

2. He's averaged more sacks per game in the last 4 years as opposed to the 9 years he's started 16 games before that. Funny how quick releases haven't helped that.

 

Great analysis -- you've convinced me.  The next few seasons will no doubt show a dramatic spike in the Patriots fumble rates. 

[WickedAwesome]

This is going to be a fun one to revisit in week 12 when the Patriots lead the league in 3rd down conversions, redzone production, and have a 2 or 3 game lead on the #1 seed. Meanwhile, the Jets will be a basket case and there will be six threads on jets nation calling for various peoples heads.

[WickedAwesome]

All Framegate has done is piss the Patriots off. It's on to Cincinnati every single week.

 

Rex Ryan blitzes went to Buffalo. Now the Patriots will treat the NY Jet defense like they treat everyone else.

 

The games won't be competitive. Patriots will smoke you and struggle against Buffalo

[Savage69]

This is going to be a fun one to revisit in week 12 when the Patriots lead the league in 3rd down conversions, redzone production, and have a 2 or 3 game lead on the #1 seed. Meanwhile, the Jets will be a basket case and there will be six threads on jets nation calling for various peoples heads.

That happens even when the team wins..

[Dcat]

All Framegate has done is piss the Patriots off. It's on to Cincinnati every single week.

 

Rex Ryan blitzes went to Buffalo. Now the Patriots will treat the NY Jet defense like they treat everyone else.

 

The games won't be competitive. Patriots will smoke you and struggle against Buffalo

Fact: Bowles blitzes more than Rex and has established himself as one of the better defensive minds in the game. Last season he proved that despite significant injuries to his defensive roster, he could still deliver a squad that ranked among the NFL best defenses. The Pats offense won't be smoking the Jets, that's for sure. The Pats will not sweep any of the AFC East teams. 3-3 in the division is what you should expect at best.

[Dcat]

All Framegate has done is piss the Patriots off. It's on to Cincinnati every single week.

Rex Ryan blitzes went to Buffalo. Now the Patriots will treat the NY Jet defense like they treat everyone else.

The games won't be competitive. Patriots will smoke you and struggle against Buffalo

"Framegate" means you are in abject denial that your QB cheated, lied on multiple occasions during the investigation and destroyed evidence. He made a very big effort to impede the investigation. But continue your delusion if it makes you happy. I guess that's what you have to do when you root for a scumbag team led by a scumbag headcoach and a cheating, lying scumbag QB.

[AFCEastFan]

"Framegate" means you are in abject denial that your QB cheated, lied on multiple occasions during the investigation and destroyed evidence. He made a very big effort to impede the investigation. But continue your delusion if it makes you happy. I guess that's what you have to do when you root for a scumbag team led by a scumbag headcoach and a cheating, lying scumbag QB.

Hard to believe that someone whose username is a stereotypical Massachusetts idiom and whose posts are straight out of the patsfans.com play book would be in denial about DeflateGate!

[Dcat]

Hard to believe that someone whose username is a stereotypical Massachusetts idiom and whose posts are straight out of the patsfans.com play book would be in denial about DeflateGate!

 

yes it's shocking.  LOL.  But he is so numbingly stupid that he needs another Pats fan to tell him.  Thanks! 

[drdetroit]

All Framegate has done is piss the Patriots off. It's on to Cincinnati every single week.

Rex Ryan blitzes went to Buffalo. Now the Patriots will treat the NY Jet defense like they treat everyone else.

The games won't be competitive. Patriots will smoke you and struggle against Buffalo

I'm not mad about your flaming. It must be hard dealing with all those fat pasty Irish women in Bahston.

[EM31]

All Framegate has done is piss the Patriots off. It's on to Cincinnati every single week.

 

Rex Ryan blitzes went to Buffalo. Now the Patriots will treat the NY Jet defense like they treat everyone else.

 

The games won't be competitive. Patriots will smoke you and struggle against Buffalo

 

Attack the defense with doctored equipment you mean?

[drdetroit]

Collinsworth on NBC saying what I said all along. All judges want settlements. Problem is there's no middle ground here.

[PFSIKH]

1. I highly doubt Brady was penalized for lower frequency of fumbles. I think it had something to do with air.

2. He's averaged more sacks per game in the last 4 years as opposed to the 9 years he's started 16 games before that. Funny how quick releases haven't helped that.

First 9 years : 19.3 attempts per sack

Last 4 years : 20.4 attempts per sack

 

You know what else is different?

 

Light is gone.  As is Mankins, Koppen and Neal.

 

That is a one sack increase, I would say he is about par for the course.

[PFSIKH]

on a quick look at your link ... it seemed the author was trying to throw a whole bunch of numbers from various small examples to maybe show fumble rates for the Patriots as extremely high in their favor instead of impossibly high in their favor.

 

I don't have the time to try & pull them up here ... but I'm sure somewhere back in history with all those stats (differentiating home vs away, rb's vs wr's, wet vs.dry, offense vs. kicking game) there was very simple stat.

 

 New England Patriots fumbled the ball this many times in 2014,2013,2012,etc ... the other NFL teams fumbled the ball this many times in 2014,2013,2012, etc.

 

if I remember correctly the differences in those numbers is preposterous ... no matter what language comes out of both sides of your mouth

 

You mean like using the fumble statistics from a guysklick/punt returns which actually uses a different ball in your statistically analysis?

 

I mean when half your fumbles are not receptions or rushes and your numbers would be the same.....just sayin'.

[NYs Stepchild]

The NE Patriots* will not be as good a team this year because of Deflategate. 

 

And not because of the possible suspension of Brady. 

 

Instead it will be because it will end one system long term institutionalized form of cheating that they have done, which of course is the deflation of footballs.And interestingly even though it is a benefit to Brady, the far bigger advantage that it gave them is in preventing fumbles.

 

What drives me nuts about the DG coveage is that the media is 100% focused on the one game as if it is an isolated incident. But it is 100% not isolated it is systemic.

 

Lets look at some facts and statistics:

 

1. It is NOT the first time NE got in trouble for deflating footballs. It also happened it 2004 and the NFL issued a warning because the NFL did not believe the Patriots explanation

 

2. An author, Gray Timothy wrote a book on "The Science of Football" in which one of the topics was how much easier it was to control underinflated footballs. It also blows up BBs claim that he never thought of the pressure of a football because BB actually wrote the forward.

 

3. Since the NFL enacted the current ball handling rules (because Brady lobbied for it), the fumble rate for the Patriots has been statistically almost IMPOSSIBLE relative to the rest of the NFL. 

                a. Since the rule change the Patriots have fumbled 1 in 187 plays over 2010-2014. The rest of the NFL averages 106. The odds of this being natural is .0000616

                b. In the 5 years before the rule change they were at 91 plays per fumble, so they became over twice as good

 

4. Also, they are statistically impossibly good at playing in wet weather since the change, and below average before

 

This will have a huge impact on the Patriots this year. They will probably lose 10 more fumbles this year which could be a multiple game swing.

 

They are systemic cheaters and the field in this area will be levelled this year.

 

References:  http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-patriots-and-tom-brady-suspiciously-out-perform-expectations-in-wet-weather

If they want to insist that a couple psi make no difference they should be forced to play with 24 psi balls until they recant that statement.

[ljr]

You mean like using the fumble statistics from a guysklick/punt returns which actually uses a different ball in your statistically analysis?

 

I mean when half your fumbles are not receptions or rushes and your numbers would be the same.....just sayin'.

You got those number of fumbles handy ... Would be interesting to see the exact numbers again without the whole song & dance surrounding it

[JohnnyLV]

The thing about the Patriots is I always used to marvel at how good NE played in bad weather, and avoided fumbles. Then deflategate came out and it all became clear. The article the NE troll posted is funny. All it does is try to say the Pats are very very very far above average instead of impossibly above average and even fails at that. 

[Jet Nut]

This is going to be a fun one to revisit in week 12 when the Patriots lead the league in 3rd down conversions, redzone production, and have a 2 or 3 game lead on the #1 seed. Meanwhile, the Jets will be a basket case and there will be six threads on jets nation calling for various peoples heads.

 

 

All Framegate has done is piss the Patriots off. It's on to Cincinnati every single week.

 

Rex Ryan blitzes went to Buffalo. Now the Patriots will treat the NY Jet defense like they treat everyone else.

 

The games won't be competitive. Patriots will smoke you and struggle against Buffalo

 

 

Ah, the patriot fans new cry, wait until Brady gets on the field and makes everyone pay for catching him cheating again.

 

Because, as we all know, Brady wasnt really trying last year.  He was playing at 80% for some stupid NE sense of logic and will play at 100-110% next season and everyone will be sorry they pissed him off.

 

As stupid and mindless an argument as there is.  In fact every Pats season ticket holder should sue the Pats for not putting out at 100%, for holding back.  Sue for 20% of the total charge for tickets, merchandize etc.  The Pats cheated you too

 

Next to making fun of a Jet board that you frequent for no apparent reason other than to be a Pats apologist 

[drdetroit]

The thing about the Patriots is I always used to marvel at how good NE played in bad weather, and avoided fumbles. Then deflategate came out and it all became clear. The article the NE troll posted is funny. All it does is try to say the Pats are very very very far above average instead of impossibly above average and even fails at that.

When did they start playing with flat balls? Was it after Brady had what should have been the game ending fumble in the 2001 playoff game facing the raiders?

[JohnnyLV]

When did they start playing with flat balls? Was it after Brady had what should have been the game ending fumble in the 2001 playoff game facing the raiders?

 

2007

[drdetroit]

Pats cut Matt Flynn for Ryan Lindley the QB who took over for Palmer last year in Arizona who was BRUTAL.

Gonna be fun watching the pats get their asses pounded without Brady. They have 3 tough games first 4 weeks and one cupcake the Jags at home.

[EM31]

Patriots face a murderer's row of defensive lines within the division.  I think Brady was going to have his work cut out even before he was going to be forced to stop doctoring the balls.

[Hitman Harris]

Bitch ass Flats* biggest negative impact will come as a result of Officials finally calling their BS straight like the rest of the league. 

Don't let these betch as punks hold for Brady, give golden shower boy 5 and 6 downs to gain NINE YARD FIRST DOWNS and old drunk ass mealy mouth lush Kraft getting kicked off all his boards.... and well, they are gonna fall. HARD. 

 

And Belicheat will slither away like the dirty slug he is. 

 

FUKC New England. They are now a punchline and a laughing stock fanbase of a loser franchise.

#ForeverTainted

#DestroyedLegacy

[ljr]

You mean like using the fumble statistics from a guysklick/punt returns which actually uses a different ball in your statistically analysis?

 

I mean when half your fumbles are not receptions or rushes and your numbers would be the same.....just sayin'.

PFSIKH do you (or the other friendly patriot fans) dispute these fumble results?

It had been awhile since I'd dug deep into the fumble results themselves ... So I just pulled this from ESPN's website

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/ne/type/team

2010-2014 Regular season fumbles from NE & Their opponents for Rushing , Receiving, then I added those numbers together

NE Rushers Fumbles - 22

Opp Rusher Fumbles - 50

NE Receiver Fumbles - 14

Opp receiver fumbles - 22

Totals

NE fumbles - 36

Opp fumbles - 72

Your opponents fumbled the ball twice as often in the same conditions ..... Hhhhhhhmmmmmm .... Nothing fishy here

[EM31]

Of course everyone preaches ball security.  Coaches coach it and they never let players forget that the turnover differential may be the single most important statistic in football.

 

Everyone in the coaching community teaches that.  Including Bill Belichick.  Including Bill Belichick ever since his time with the Giants.  Certainly before 2007 when New England were good but not off the charts great at it.  They only achieved that status after the rules change allowing them to "prepare" their own footballs.

 

Shocker.

 

The embarrassing thing is that it took the rest of us so long to figure out that they were cheating 

[Hitman Harris]

The embarrassing thing is that it took the rest of us so long to figure out that they were cheating 

 

The rest of the world needs to be  reminded of this and really driven home with it.

This pretending it was only the Colts game is way too merciful to those twats.

They have never done ANYTHING legitimately. It's all been fraud. From day one.

#BostonFraud 

[AFCEastFan]

Of course everyone preaches ball security.  Coaches coach it and they never let players forget that the turnover differential may be the single most important statistic in football.

 

Everyone in the coaching community teaches that.  Including Bill Belichick.  Including Bill Belichick ever since his time with the Giants.  Certainly before 2007 when New England were good but not off the charts great at it.  They only achieved that status after the rules change allowing them to "prepare" their own footballs.

 

Shocker.

 

The embarrassing thing is that it took the rest of us so long to figure out that they were cheating 

 

What exactly do you think was going on post-2006 that was not going on before then?  Are you suggesting that the Patriots post-2006 gave the officials bags of deflated footballs and assumed that they wouldn't be properly inspected?  Otherwise, what difference does the rule change make?

 

As far as I'm aware, there is nothing McNally or the Patriots were alleged to have done to deflate the footballs post-2006 that they could not have done pre-2007, because both of the alleged deflation methods -- McNally absconding with the balls after they were inspected (which Anderson and Blakeman both testified had never before happened in their history as officials) or someone on the Patriots sideline hiding a needle and deflating the balls during the game -- can be accomplished regardless of whether the Patriots have a pre-game right to "prepare" the balls.  

 

I can promise you that if there was any tangible value to deflating footballs, Belichick would have thought of it (and done it) long before 2006.  So at the very least I think you are creating a link between the rule change and the Patriots' fumble stats that simply does not exist.  

[AFCEastFan]

Pats cut Matt Flynn for Ryan Lindley the QB who took over for Palmer last year in Arizona who was BRUTAL.

Gonna be fun watching the pats get their asses pounded without Brady. They have 3 tough games first 4 weeks and one cupcake the Jags at home.

 

By all accounts Lindley is just a camp stand-in until Flynn recovers from his injury.  I agree that Lindley is brutal -- he will never see a meaningful snap for the Patriots.  

[ljr]

What exactly do you think was going on post-2006 that was not going on before then?  Are you suggesting that the Patriots post-2006 gave the officials bags of deflated footballs and assumed that they wouldn't be properly inspected?  Otherwise, what difference does the rule change make?

 

As far as I'm aware, there is nothing McNally or the Patriots were alleged to have done to deflate the footballs post-2006 that they could not have done pre-2007, because both of the alleged deflation methods -- McNally absconding with the balls after they were inspected (which Anderson and Blakeman both testified had never before happened in their history as officials) or someone on the Patriots sideline hiding a needle and deflating the balls during the game -- can be accomplished regardless of whether the Patriots have a pre-game right to "prepare" the balls.  

 

I can promise you that if there was any tangible value to deflating footballs, Belichick would have thought of it (and done it) long before 2006.  So at the very least I think you are creating a link between the rule change and the Patriots' fumble stats that simply does not exist.

AFCEastFan ... What are your thoughts on these fumble stats?

2010-2014 Regular season fumbles from NE & Their opponents for Rushing & Receiving

Totals

NE fumbles - 36

Opp fumbles - 72