2016 NFL Draft Prospects: Paxton Lynch - QB - Memphis

[jetfuel]

With Bradford's ridiculous contract, we may need to start thinking QB in 1st round in case Fitzpatrick walks.

(video highlights can be found at original article by clicking link)

2016 NFL Draft Prospects: Paxton Lynch - QB - Memphis

With the recent contract developments at quarterback around the league, including Sam Bradford's ridiculous 2-year $36 million deal, it is becoming more likely that the Jets will have to start looking closer at signal callers in the draft. Looking at the team's salary cap situation, it is hard to fathom how they can fit a new contract for Ryan Fitzpatrick under it.

This is not to say that it is impossible that they can reach an agreement that works for both sides, if they both truly want to make it work, but it is certainly going to be difficult. And even if Fitzpatrick does return, the Jets still need to keep an eye on the future of the position.

If Fitzpatrick ends up on another team in 2016, Geno Smith may become the Jets’ starting quarterback by default as Bryce Petty is still in the developmental stages. The thought of that scenario is unsettling to say the least after the Jets went 10-6 in 2015 and appear to be a team on the rise.

Although it is possible that Geno finally gets it, we can only really go by what we have seen on the field, which has not been very inspiring. And it is not as if the free agent market is filled with franchise quarterbacks or even anyone that has shown to be much of an improvement over Smith.

Besides the fact that there does not appear to be an answer in free agency, we have all seen what the price tags are for mediocre quarterbacks on the market, and it is scary. At this point, the Jets would be much better off overpaying Fitzpatrick and finding a way to fit it under the cap. If not, they are definitely looking at the draft to at least bring someone in to compete for the job.

According to all of the draft experts, there are three quarterbacks that are expected to be worthy of first round grades. Two of them, Carson Wentz of North Dakota State and California’s Jared Goff, are projected to go within the top 10 or 15 picks, so for the sake of argument, let us take a look at the consensus third option, which is Paxton Lynch of Memphis.

At 6’7 244 pounds, Lynch is a physical specimen with the skillset and athleticism to excel on the NFL level. In his junior year alone, he passed for 3,778 yards with a 66.8% completion rate, adding 28 touchdowns and three interceptions, earning a 157.5 QB rating. For his outstanding effort, Paxton was named Team MVP and first team All-ACC as well as being a finalist for the Manning Award.

During his sophomore season in 2014, Lynch completed 62.7% of his passes for 3,031 yards with 22 TD’s and nine INT’s. He also ran the ball for 321 yards and 13 TD’s, although he only averaged 2.8 yards per rush. Due to his achievements that year, Paxton received second team All-AAC honors.

Over his three years as a starter, Lynch compiled 8,864 yards passing at a 62.9% completion rate with 59 TD’s, 23 INT’s and a 137.0 QBR. He also added on 17 rushing TD’s, almost all in goal line situations. The main thing is that he showed development each year of his college career, improving dramatically between his freshman and junior seasons.

Already at 6’7 244 pounds, Lynch still has room in his frame to bulk up a little more. He is extremely light on his feet for his height, with the ability to navigate his way around the pocket in order to buy time and find an open target. When he does find his man, Paxton possesses the arm strength, quick release and accuracy to fit the ball through tight windows.

Lynch is also a fluid passer who maintains his accuracy for the most part while on the move on bootlegs and when escaping the pass rush. Additionally, he has the field vision to scan the entire field for his receivers and the poise to withstand pressure when cycling through his reads.

Despite his incredible talent, Lynch does need improvement in several areas of his game, as is the case with any quarterback coming out of college. Being that all of his offensive play calls came from the sideline during his time at Memphis, he is going to have to learn how to change plays on the fly according to the defense he sees before him.

Although he has shown accuracy when throwing the ball on the run, Lynch does still need improvement in that area as well as his anticipation of routes. He will also need to get rid of the ball quicker against NFL defenses as he will not have the wealth of time he experienced in college. He may be able to absorb a hit, but he'll want to avoid taking unnecessary shots whenever possible in the pros.

In addition, Paxton needs to be more consistent when planting his feet to make downfield throws as he will not get away with throwing off of his back foot as much on the next level. He can also use some refinement on the touch he puts on sideline throws and the speed in which he works through his progressions.

Despite all of the work that Paxton needs to do when making the jump to the NFL, he is certainly equipped with all of the tools with which to work. Although he would surely benefit from carrying the clipboard for a year, he could step in and compete for the starting job right away if need be.

If given the proper guidance, Lynch could become a top-10 quarterback in the league within a few years, and would definitely make a major improvement at the position for a quarterback-needy team. The sky is the limit for this kid, and the Jets could do much worse than to get him wearing the green and white on Sund

[#27TheDominator]

I understand not wanting to pay Fitzpatrick in a post Sam Bradford landscape, but letting him walk and drafting a QB in the first smells of disaster.  You will be forced to start the kid and it will be ugly.  

[BrickTamland]

Write up makes him sound pretty dang good. 

Honestly, my biggest issue with drafting a qb in the first this year is that it will likely preclude us from doing so in the next 2 years, which have talent that is more highly touted than this years crop. (Watson, Kaaya, Rosen)

theres also the opportunity cost, that taking the qb prevents us from getting a new starting LB/OL on the cheap

[chirorob]

Even if we brought back Fitz, if the Jets were sold this guy is "The Guy", then I'd take him.

He needs to not be rushed?   Good, let him learn under Fitz, learn how to be a pro, and in 2 years we have a good young QB ready to go.  Worst thing to do is draft a young QB who needs work, and start him day 1, and ruin him utterly.  I still think that's what happened with Geno, he would have been much better off learning for a year before having to play.

[Paradis]

you're really putting in the time this year hey?.... appreciated of course. With Paxton, i've done so much homework and tape watching that it's hard to not jump into the middle of a discussion and start banging the table... because honestly, so few people have done a good job breaking down his strengths/flaws.

How did you do? In my opinion - OK... you pointed out a lot of his accolades, and abilities to make special plays outside of the pocket.... but again, your criticisms are half pulled out of thin air. 

Memphis/Fuentes asked Lynch to do certain things. He did those well. He grew within that system, and mastered it by his Junior year. When better teams brought better defenses, the offense did not have a lot of answers. their WRs were all walk-ons and couldn't catch a post/flag ball to save their life. There's certainly some things about what Lynch does mechanically that will need to be cleaned up, but its amazing how many people are not discussing things like the limited Offenses he had to work with, the cast of Walk-ons at WRs and his low-INT smart decision making. 

[jetfuel]

25 minutes ago, Paradis said:

you're really putting in the time this year hey?.... appreciated of course. With Paxton, i've done so much homework and tape watching that it's hard to not jump into the middle of a discussion and start banging the table... because honestly, so few people have done a good job breaking down his strengths/flaws.

How did you do? In my opinion - OK... you pointed out a lot of his accolades, and abilities to make special plays outside of the pocket.... but again, your criticisms are half pulled out of thin air. 

Memphis/Fuentes asked Lynch to do certain things. He did those well. He grew within that system, and mastered it by his Junior year. When better teams brought better defenses, the offense did not have a lot of answers. their WRs were all walk-ons and couldn't catch a post/flag ball to save their life. There's certainly some things about what Lynch does mechanically that will need to be cleaned up, but its amazing how many people are not discussing things like the limited Offenses he had to work with, the cast of Walk-ons at WRs and his low-INT smart decision making. 

Excellent assessment on your part. Thanks for your input as it definitely adds some great insight when considering Lynch. 

I am looking at so many prospects right now that I am bound to leave some things out. I am doing my best to find players that may fit in with the Jets and give at least a basic description of those players. I am also balancing this with a lot of other, unrelated, writing work so I am not going to be perfect. I'm doing my best though. 

[chirorob]

31 minutes ago, Paradis said:

you're really putting in the time this year hey?.... appreciated of course. With Paxton, i've done so much homework and tape watching that it's hard to not jump into the middle of a discussion and start banging the table... because honestly, so few people have done a good job breaking down his strengths/flaws.

How did you do? In my opinion - OK... you pointed out a lot of his accolades, and abilities to make special plays outside of the pocket.... but again, your criticisms are half pulled out of thin air. 

Memphis/Fuentes asked Lynch to do certain things. He did those well. He grew within that system, and mastered it by his Junior year. When better teams brought better defenses, the offense did not have a lot of answers. their WRs were all walk-ons and couldn't catch a post/flag ball to save their life. There's certainly some things about what Lynch does mechanically that will need to be cleaned up, but its amazing how many people are not discussing things like the limited Offenses he had to work with, the cast of Walk-ons at WRs and his low-INT smart decision making. 

That's a real good assessment.

Which also, to me, strengthens the argument to take him even if you re-sign Fitz.  He comes from a limited offense, he has a lot to learn.   But he's big, and athletic, and if given a chance to learn, could be something really good (if you, as a scout, like him).   If the Jets really like him, I have no trouble drafting him and letting him sit a year or 2. 

[Paradis]

7 minutes ago, jetfuel said:

Excellent assessment on your part. Thanks for your input as it definitely adds some great insight when considering Lynch. 

I am looking at so many prospects right now that I am bound to leave some things out. I am doing my best to find players that may fit in with the Jets and give at least a basic description of those players. I am also balancing this with a lot of other, unrelated, writing work so I am not going to be perfect. I'm doing my best though. 

i totally hear you, man. I got a job, 5 kids at home, and don't have paper on my wall designating me as a pro-scout. So take what i say with a grain of salt.

When it comes to QBs, it's tough to predict which guys will tap out at the college level. In Lynch's case - there's not a lot about his Junior that's concerning. 3/4 of the college programs seem to use some sort of gimmicky spread-O, so it's not like we can blame it all on that. They're all operating out of the shot gun. So you really have to look at 

• are they making a lot of reckless poor throws
• can they push the ball into tight windows when they need to
• what happens when the play breaks down? Is the QB keeping his eyes down field, anticipating.
• what's the touch and ball placement look like
• do they panic and run under pressure

In Lynch case, I saw him pass those tests with flying colours in most cases. Mechanically, they're all gonna need work, so we're basing this on potential, which I believe there's plenty of that to go around. Hence, why i love him. 

[jetfuel]

I am a big fan, although I'm not sure he is going to get past the Browns and 49ers . There are some other teams that might look towards the future at QB as well, so we'll see what happens on April 28th. 

[Beerfish]

Would be nice to come out with a QB I actually like coming into the league.  I didn't like Sanchez or Geno that much.  I will say though that the way the Jets got both of them was really well done if you ask me.

Trading up to 5 with Mangini and giving up second hand roster guys instead of mega picks was genius, too bad Sanchez mostly sucked.  Getting Geno where they did was also very good, have a QB need, don't chase any of them, let geno fall to us and then pick one of the higher rated QBs in the 2nd round.

[maury77]

Lynch has some nice velocity:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000640929/article/lynch-goff-create-most-velocity-on-combine-throws?campaign=tw-nf-sf21957247-sf21957247

[Blaq218]

Was he a better college QB than Petty?

[Tony The Wiz]

On March 2, 2016 at 1:34 PM, jetfuel said:

With Bradford's ridiculous contract, we may need to start thinking QB in 1st round in case Fitzpatrick walks.

(video highlights can be found at original article by clicking link)

2016 NFL Draft Prospects: Paxton Lynch - QB - Memphis

With the recent contract developments at quarterback around the league, including Sam Bradford's ridiculous 2-year $36 million deal, it is becoming more likely that the Jets will have to start looking closer at signal callers in the draft. Looking at the team's salary cap situation, it is hard to fathom how they can fit a new contract for Ryan Fitzpatrick under it.

This is not to say that it is impossible that they can reach an agreement that works for both sides, if they both truly want to make it work, but it is certainly going to be difficult. And even if Fitzpatrick does return, the Jets still need to keep an eye on the future of the position.

If Fitzpatrick ends up on another team in 2016, Geno Smith may become the Jets’ starting quarterback by default as Bryce Petty is still in the developmental stages. The thought of that scenario is unsettling to say the least after the Jets went 10-6 in 2015 and appear to be a team on the rise.

Although it is possible that Geno finally gets it, we can only really go by what we have seen on the field, which has not been very inspiring. And it is not as if the free agent market is filled with franchise quarterbacks or even anyone that has shown to be much of an improvement over Smith.

Besides the fact that there does not appear to be an answer in free agency, we have all seen what the price tags are for mediocre quarterbacks on the market, and it is scary. At this point, the Jets would be much better off overpaying Fitzpatrick and finding a way to fit it under the cap. If not, they are definitely looking at the draft to at least bring someone in to compete for the job.

According to all of the draft experts, there are three quarterbacks that are expected to be worthy of first round grades. Two of them, Carson Wentz of North Dakota State and California’s Jared Goff, are projected to go within the top 10 or 15 picks, so for the sake of argument, let us take a look at the consensus third option, which is Paxton Lynch of Memphis.

At 6’7 244 pounds, Lynch is a physical specimen with the skillset and athleticism to excel on the NFL level. In his junior year alone, he passed for 3,778 yards with a 66.8% completion rate, adding 28 touchdowns and three interceptions, earning a 157.5 QB rating. For his outstanding effort, Paxton was named Team MVP and first team All-ACC as well as being a finalist for the Manning Award.

During his sophomore season in 2014, Lynch completed 62.7% of his passes for 3,031 yards with 22 TD’s and nine INT’s. He also ran the ball for 321 yards and 13 TD’s, although he only averaged 2.8 yards per rush. Due to his achievements that year, Paxton received second team All-AAC honors.

Over his three years as a starter, Lynch compiled 8,864 yards passing at a 62.9% completion rate with 59 TD’s, 23 INT’s and a 137.0 QBR. He also added on 17 rushing TD’s, almost all in goal line situations. The main thing is that he showed development each year of his college career, improving dramatically between his freshman and junior seasons.

Already at 6’7 244 pounds, Lynch still has room in his frame to bulk up a little more. He is extremely light on his feet for his height, with the ability to navigate his way around the pocket in order to buy time and find an open target. When he does find his man, Paxton possesses the arm strength, quick release and accuracy to fit the ball through tight windows.

Lynch is also a fluid passer who maintains his accuracy for the most part while on the move on bootlegs and when escaping the pass rush. Additionally, he has the field vision to scan the entire field for his receivers and the poise to withstand pressure when cycling through his reads.

Despite his incredible talent, Lynch does need improvement in several areas of his game, as is the case with any quarterback coming out of college. Being that all of his offensive play calls came from the sideline during his time at Memphis, he is going to have to learn how to change plays on the fly according to the defense he sees before him.

Although he has shown accuracy when throwing the ball on the run, Lynch does still need improvement in that area as well as his anticipation of routes. He will also need to get rid of the ball quicker against NFL defenses as he will not have the wealth of time he experienced in college. He may be able to absorb a hit, but he'll want to avoid taking unnecessary shots whenever possible in the pros.

In addition, Paxton needs to be more consistent when planting his feet to make downfield throws as he will not get away with throwing off of his back foot as much on the next level. He can also use some refinement on the touch he puts on sideline throws and the speed in which he works through his progressions.

Despite all of the work that Paxton needs to do when making the jump to the NFL, he is certainly equipped with all of the tools with which to work. Although he would surely benefit from carrying the clipboard for a year, he could step in and compete for the starting job right away if need be.

If given the proper guidance, Lynch could become a top-10 quarterback in the league within a few years, and would definitely make a major improvement at the position for a quarterback-needy team. The sky is the limit for this kid, and the Jets could do much worse than to get him wearing the green and white on Sund

If you seen my mock on this site when someone posted about Kiper and his mock. I posted at 20 the Jets will take the Memphis QB at 20. I believe Lynch will be their at 20 since the Rams are going to pick the center Ryan Kelly instead of going QB.

 

[Tony The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Blaq218 said:

Was he a better college QB than Petty?

Watched both QBS. Petty at Baylor and Lynch this year at Memphis. Petty played in a better conference but the defenses weren't good except for TCU and Oklahoma.  I like Ed Petty but he was not athletic like Lynch who is much bigger height wise but his athleticism is so much better. Lynch has a better arm but they both Haden some issues on accuracy. Lynch is a definite 1st round player and Petty at best is a high two and at worst a early 4th. Also I like Lynch because he has a chip on his shoulder since nobody gave him a scholarship except Memphis. So like Brady who got drafted late there is something to prove.

[afosomf]

Lynch had a great game vs Ole Miss and was terrible vs Aubarn which had an awful Def   go figure

[Paradis]

On 3/11/2016 at 5:25 PM, afosomf said:

Lynch had a great game vs Ole Miss and was terrible vs Aubarn which had an awful Def   go figure

why was the game awful vs Aub? I mean i have my own strong feelings about the game - but seems everyone is just "settled" on him sucking in that game without doing any homework. 

[afosomf]

7 hours ago, Paradis said:

why was the game awful vs Aub? I mean i have my own strong feelings about the game - but seems everyone is just "settled" on him sucking in that game without doing any homework. 

auburns's def was awful this yr and they made Lynch very ordinary. makes you wonder about him

[Paradis]

5 hours ago, afosomf said:

auburns's def was awful this yr and they made Lynch very ordinary. makes you wonder about him

I get that's what twitter-verse says, but have you watched that game yourself - the paxton tape? Cause i did, and it's hardly the nightmare people make it out to be. He's WRs dropping TDs, whole coaching (Fuentes) wasn't there for the game, Auburn stepped on the scheme, etc. This "Paxton" was awful business was made to be a bigger deal that it really was IMO. Same with the game vs Temple. 

[afosomf]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I get that's what twitter-verse says, but have you watched that game yourself - the paxton tape? Cause i did, and it's hardly the nightmare people make it out to be. He's WRs dropping TDs, whole coaching (Fuentes) wasn't there for the game, Auburn stepped on the scheme, etc. This "Paxton" was awful business was made to be a bigger deal that it really was IMO. Same with the game vs Temple. 

I listened to game on radio as i was traveling, well radio announcers were not kind to him and again Barn defense was very bad

[jetfuel]

On 3/3/2016 at 9:15 PM, #27TheDominator said:

I understand not wanting to pay Fitzpatrick in a post Sam Bradford landscape, but letting him walk and drafting a QB in the first smells of disaster.  You will be forced to start the kid and it will be ugly.  

I was just being realistic about the way the team is handling the situation. Ideally I hope they get Fitz back and still draft a QB early to prepresent for the future.